Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:26 am

When immigrant bashing loses its power . . . Poland’s Populists Pick a New Top Enemy: Gay People
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Balsamo » Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:30 am

Latest European elections:
Finland, sometimes described as the "happiest" country within the EU:
The Social Democrats 17.7%
The "Finn Party" - described as far right and euroskeptic - seems to be close to a historic victory with 17.5%
The National coalition is close behind with 17%
The former ruling party, the center, is tumbling with less than 14% of the votes.
The Green league is progressing to 11%
While the left Alliance is also progressing to 8%

It is still too early to call.
But here it is. Finland might be won by the far right. And with only 6.6% of immigrants, it cannot be the cause.
I guess, we will have to get used to it. :cry:
The Finn Party" surged in 2011 to become a real political force. And it is consolidating since then at the top. It missed the victory for less than 7.000 votes.
The SPD is going to have a hard time forming a government.

Now, if the strength of the Finn Party would be confirmed in two months during the EU elections, then a bigger crisis might be on the horizon.

Will update when final results come.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Balmoral95 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:54 am


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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:03 pm

Finland:

Vs. previous parliament . . .

- Finns party (populist nationalists moving toward radical right) +1 seat
- Social Democrats (left-center) +6 seats
- left-wing Left Alliance +4 seats
- Greens +5 seats

Big loser: outgoing conservative government.

Per The Guardian, it was " good night generally for the left." Also, almost half the MPs will be femaie.

From BBC, Guardian, Bloomberg, Reuters, Aftonbladet and other news sources, and from conversations with Finns whom I know here, I take that the elections drivers were . . .

- social security with the government's streamlining/cuts/freezes ("freedom of choice") proving unpopular against the SD's promise to protect and raise benefits (with tax increases) (Finland has an aging population, and it was the conservatives' cutbacks that caused the government to fall)

- climate change (with the Finns party, described in Sweden as "climate skeptical," saying that Finland has done enough)

- immigration (Finland has strict immigration controls but this was the main issue for the Finns party, despite relatively small immigration; they built off highly publicized rapes in Oulu with the suspects being foreign men; the Finns party promises next to no immigration and changes to asylum laws - they've described Somalis as thieves and Islam as linked to pedophilia)

It seems likely that the SDs (biggest vote getter, if barely, for first time since the '90s) will be able to form a center-right government with the Greens, the National Coalition (a conservative partner in the outgoing government) and one or two other smaller parties. No other parties have yet expressed openness to working with the Finns party, so they don't appear to be a possible government partner.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Balsamo » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm

There is nothing yet to sustain that the drama at Notre Dame is related to these incidents. And i pray they are not.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Balmoral95 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:08 pm

Balsamo wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:55 pm
There is nothing yet to sustain that the drama at Notre Dame is related to these incidents. And i pray they are not.
I wasn't really suggesting so...

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Balsamo » Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:19 am

The Comedian Zelensky who did his presidential campaign in Ukraine by shouting out loud he was no politician and just wanted to break the "system" seems to have won with over 70% of the votes in the first round.
A recent polls showed that only 5 % of the Ukrainians had trust in their government.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:03 am

EU elections, Swedish style

Headline: no significant change in dynamics since the last post I made on this topic - but generally the Left, Greens, Social Democrats, and Liberals are doing worse than then with the Moderates (right wing) and Sweden Democrats (populist nationalists) continuing to gain; the Social Democrats and the Moderates, compared to 2014, will be about the same according to the new poll, with big gains for the Sweden Democrats who appear to be locking in as the country's 2nd largest party

The Liberals, most pro-Europe of all Swedish parties, had two seats with about 10% of the vote in 2014; today they are polling under 4% with no seats.

The Green party will likely lost 2 of its 4 seats, as well. And Fi (Feminist Initiative) has dropped to about 1% and is likely to lose its seat - no surprise there, as Fi did poorly in the 2018 national elections.

Quoting Aftonbladet, “Överlägset störst vinnare jämfört med 2014 är Sverigedemokraterna, som då fick 9,7 procent. I dagens mätning får man hela 17,4 procent. ” (“By far the biggest winner compared with 2014 is the Sweden Democrats, who then got 9.7 percent. In today's measurement they get a full 17.4 percent.”)

The right-wing Christian Democrats and center-right Centerpartiet are both polling above their 2014 levels.

There's a bit of a brouhaha over a photo used by the Left party showing its leader, Jonas Sjöstedt, with some supporters, one of whom is wearing a tee shirt of the Afa (Anti-Fascist Action).

this week’s polling:

Left 7.6%
Greens 8.7%
Fi 1.5%

Social Democrats 24.9%

Center party 9.4%
Liberals 3.7%

Sweden Democrats 17.4%
Moderates 15.9%
Christian Democrats 9%
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:25 pm



However, per The Grauniad: "Polls released immediately after voting closed indicated that the anti-feminist, anti-immigration party would win as many as 38 seats in parliament. But with two thirds of votes counted, Vox are on track to win nearly half of that, with 23 seats."
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 01, 2019 6:01 pm

this report (Revealed: populists far more likely to believe in conspiracy theories: Largest survey of its kind uncovers suspicion of vaccines in big part of world population) says that HD is piss-poor CT, not even attracting many of those oriented to lunatic right-wing and crackpot beliefs:

Image

(The US scores very poorly in this study, as populist and CT prone.)
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 01, 2019 8:10 pm

Sweden on international workers' day:

"More falafel, no racism" . . . a food truck in the centrum (downtown), parked next to a pink Mexican food truck . . . :

Image

Kommunistiska Partiet march, first marchers climb the hill (these are actual Commies, like Obama, Hillary Clinton, the FBI, and so on in the US):

Image

. . . and the middle part of the march follows:

Image

Our bus became stuck in a 2nd, larger march, that of the Left party, mid-afternoon . . .
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu May 02, 2019 4:37 pm

Sweden's right-wing Social Democrat PM, Stefan Lövfen, calls for banning of neo-Nazis.

The immediate pretext for Löfven's call is yesterday's clashes, with I think 60 arrests, between Nordiska motståndsrörelsen (NMR), a neo-Nazi group active in the Scandinavian countries, and an assortment of antifas (AFA), clowns, and various citizens in Kungälv (https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3J ... onstration). The deeper reason may be Löfven's government's dependence on center-right parties and their dragging the Social Democrats into supporting revisions to the labor law and Trumpian tax cuts. Löfven may be using the Kungälv clashes to cover his left flank.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sat May 11, 2019 8:58 am

In polling before the EU elections, almost half of Swedish voters (47%) ranked climate and the environment as the most important issue (next in importance was immigration, followed by terrorism, crime and, with a big drop-off, the economy and trade).* (Swexit scored very, very poorly - around 4% wanting Sweden to leave the EU.)

So the Social Democrats have made climate and the environment their wedge issue, attacking the Moderaterna, the Sweden Democrats and the Christian Democrats based on the weak environmental proposals and record of those three parties. A recent study, by the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (”Blåslampor och bromsklossar”), concluded that the Sweden Democrats, the Moderaterna, and the Christian Democrats are the worst on climate and the environment.

The Sweden Democrats, using the slogan "Less Brussels, More Sweden," push crime and of course immigration as their top issue. A recent party leaders' forum focused mainly on crime, with all parties except the Left and Center focusing on harsher penalties and more police. Like the Sweden Democrats, the Moderaterna press on immigration, along with crime. One person I met recently, on learning I come from Chicago, told me that in Sweden "Chicago" is now used as a term to describe the rising crime rate in the country (How reported crime rates changed in Sweden in 2018).

* by comparison, US voters in a late 2018 Gallup poll ranked the top issues, in order, as healthcare, the economy, immigration, the way women are treated, guns . . . with climate change 11th just behind trade; as one would imagine, there are large partisan and age gaps - with climate ranked much more important by Democrats and young voters
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 12, 2019 4:06 am

Poll surge for Farage sparks panic among Tories and Labour: Support for the Conservatives at the European elections slumps to 11%, less than a third of what the Brexit party is polling:
The poll suggests the Brexit party, launched only last month, is now on course for a thumping victory that Farage will, MPs fear, use to back his argument that the UK must leave the EU immediately without a deal.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 12, 2019 8:04 am

As with the 2018 national elections in Sweden, the parties have valstugor (election campaign sheds) set up in the main squares of major towns and cities. Here, in the square, the government side has just two valstugor - the Fi in the doldrums and the Left no longer with the government. I don't see many people taking campaign literature or talking to campaigners working on the government side of the main square. Things are different across the square, where the parties not supporting the government have their valstugor. But only one of them is constantly busy, often with young people crowding in for conversations with party reps who wear white jackets. That's the Sweden Democrats' valstuga. My informal poll has them, thus, performing very well, if even here in a town where they do poorly electorally their pitch is the one exciting people most when it comes to Europe.

The Left party, struggling now in the polls, has no stuga at all in the main square. They had really pretty marches on May 1st.

Also, the Sweden Democrats and fringe far-right groups dominate on social media, as they did during the 2018 national campaigns.

This informal and impressionistic look matches with what the polls, above and just below, have shown with regard to the parties, but not the issues: the loneliest valstuga may be that of the Liberals, the EU-friendly party which has been in a state of collapse since the post-election negotiations. The Miljöpartiet (Greens) looks likely to fall off vs the last EU elections despite climate and the environment being the most important issue to voters.

Recent polling:

Social Democrats 23.9 down close to a point since last polling
Sweden Democrats 17.9 double 2014 results
Moderaterna 16.9 increase of over a point since last polls
Greens 9.6 recovering a bit but still almost half 2014 results
Christian Democrats 8.8 same as previous polls
Center 8.4 down almost a point off last polls
Left party 6.9 dropping since previous polls, in line with 2014 results
Liberals 3.4 down almost 2 points from previous polling
Feminist Initiative (Fi) 2.2 up a point but way off 2014 results
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 15, 2019 5:48 pm

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed May 15, 2019 6:27 pm

Austria has exactly the same issue.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed May 15, 2019 6:44 pm

A bit off topic but I guess it’s one way to get votes:
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/05/14/europe ... cnn.com%2F
Also, Donald Trump is a clownfraud who only got involved in this for the attention.

Deadspin, 2014:
https://deadspin.com/there-are-just-two ... 1613879544

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri May 17, 2019 8:30 pm

Also, Donald Trump is a clownfraud who only got involved in this for the attention.

Deadspin, 2014:
https://deadspin.com/there-are-just-two ... 1613879544

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri May 17, 2019 8:31 pm

English language version:
Also, Donald Trump is a clownfraud who only got involved in this for the attention.

Deadspin, 2014:
https://deadspin.com/there-are-just-two ... 1613879544

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by ElectricMonk » Sat May 18, 2019 3:27 am

I wonder: is corruption a necessary component of Facism?

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat May 18, 2019 7:37 pm

Seriously, what’s someone gotta do to get a milkshake around here????
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html
Also, Donald Trump is a clownfraud who only got involved in this for the attention.

Deadspin, 2014:
https://deadspin.com/there-are-just-two ... 1613879544

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat May 18, 2019 7:38 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Sat May 18, 2019 3:27 am
I wonder: is corruption a necessary component of Facism?
Any totalitarian government has that problem. No oversight = corruption
Also, Donald Trump is a clownfraud who only got involved in this for the attention.

Deadspin, 2014:
https://deadspin.com/there-are-just-two ... 1613879544

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun May 19, 2019 4:26 am

Sure, but Austria isn't Totalitarian yet.
Guy like the FPO chief are corrupt before they have power.

I guess that if at heart you are undemocratic, you have no qualms about how you achieve power - something we can see in US politics, too.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 19, 2019 11:45 am

. . . all right we are two nations . . .