Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:31 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:07 pm

I read that Trump is afraid of Biden. I sure as hell am.
The political masochisim here is stunning. Trump will try to win over undecided voters by protraying the Democrats as Venezualan socialists, with a massive dose of race-baiting thrown in if Booker or Harris is nominated.
He will do that in any event. Bernie is by far the most vulnerable to such a campaign, not Booker or Harris. But whoever runs will be a baby killing socialist hellbent on taking away our burgers and pickups.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm
It is therefore IMPERATIVE that the candidate be unassalable from either of those angles. Biden may not be impressive in a normal election cycle, but he is tailor made to destroy Trump.
Have you followed Biden's career?
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm
There would be nothing Trump could say or do. He would only be able to close his eyes and wait for the inevitable.
450?
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm
The key here is depriving him of a fighting chance. I don't understand why so many on the party's left seem hell-bent on giving Trump another term. They are a virtual fifth columm at this point.
I am not afraid of Biden to promote Sanders, Harris, or Booker; I am afraid of Biden because I think in the heat of the campaign he will come unglued. I don't think he can beat Trump.

I was making a diagnostic, not a prescriptive comment.

Bernie will also be crushed by Trump. FWIW.

But there is OTOH nothing that says that a center-right candidate is more likely to beat Trump. Do you remember Hillary Clinton? I think, as previously noted, that Sherrod Brown could have beaten Trump.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:32 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:10 pm
Senate rejects Trump's phony emergency 59-41, with 12 Republicans voting with the majority. They didn't fall too far short of being able to override his veto.
"Declaring a national emergency to access different funds sets a dangerous new precedent," GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio warned in remarks on the Senate floor ahead of the vote. "It opens the door for future presidents to implement just about any policy they want."
The senator went on to say, "a future President could seize industries ... a future President may well say that climate change is a national emergency and use emergency authorities to implement the Green New Deal," referencing a sweeping progressive policy proposal to tackle global warming.
:lol:

Yep, sparky, that’s exactly right!!!!!

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politi ... cnn.com%2F

The hypocrisy is stunning, as if only lefties do scary things. Yet we have a president who has no trouble making veiled threats against the media and playing footsie with dictators.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:40 pm

Question, when was the last time a Democratic President who was not an incumbent won the election who hadn't run for President before?
Last time Democrat non-incumbent won who was older than 60?

Hint: Hillary, Kerry, Gore fit category of losers who were nominated, and were only ones in a long time.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:52 pm

Parliament defeated both a 2nd referendum and having MPs vote on preferred Brexit scenarios. The ball is back in May's court, when Parliament could have taken it and run with it. Hell, why not? So May gets to re-submit her deal to Parliament and try one final time to force the hard-liners to support it - or risk a long delay period, one in which they could possibly even lose Brexit. This looks a bit like what May has long been counting on: an ultimatum to the hard liners and a deal or nothing choice in front of them.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:53 pm

>> They are a virtual fifth columm at this point.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:52 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:31 pm
Bernie is by far the most vulnerable to such a campaign
On cue: https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/14/politics ... index.html; that's a funny article as anyone who was around in the Liberty Union days would know much of that. Sanders was very much an early '70s left-wing type.

The other things that will be resurfaced are Jane Sanders' problems (accused of bank fraud IIRC in Burlington College case - not sure where that stands) and Bernie's reluctance (refusal?) to release his taxes. If Sanders got the nomination, it would be to see a thing of beauty to watch the Republicans go into a meltdown of faux outrage over such things.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:07 pm

Surprisingly, twelve of them thought using a national emergency declaration to be able to unleash eminent domain on their supporters might be a step too far. :-P
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:28 pm

...and others think the Mueller report should be made public - House votes 420-0...
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:41 pm

Allan Lichtman vigorously disagrees with me on Pelosi and impeachment: Did Democrats forfeit 2020?

Lichtman's sort of famous track record: Keys to the White House (and more on topic for the forum)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:08 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:41 pm
Allan Lichtman vigorously disagrees with me on Pelosi and impeachment: Did Democrats forfeit 2020?

Lichtman's sort of famous track record: Keys to the White House (and more on topic for the forum)
IMO I think it’s important to wait for Mueller to finish before talking about impeachment. This will give real ammunition for any impeachment proceedings.

But he is right and I didn’t think about this. It isn’t important to know whether or not the Senate will vote for or against. What’s important is getting the information and proceeding.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:09 pm

A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:31 pm

:laff:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:34 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:08 pm
IMO I think it’s important to wait for Mueller to finish before talking about impeachment. This will give real ammunition for any impeachment proceedings.
On this I differ on two grounds, one practical and one fundamental.

(1) The practical problem has to do with the facts that we don't know what Mueller's report will look like, whether it will be submitted to Congress, and what it will say relevant to Trump's fitness for office.

After all, Mueller is commissioned to do two things: charge any crimes that are related to or found in the investigation of '16 election interference and do a counterintelligence investigation related to '16 election interference. Even if there is a report, and even if the report goes to Congress, it may not speak very directly to impeachment issues.

(2) This leads to the fundamental issue, which also has to do with why I wish Pelosi hadn't spoken as she did: tying impeachment to special counsel type investigations. This seems to me an abdication, or at least a case of responsibility shifting, on the part of Congress.

Mueller = Godot?
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:08 pm
But he is right and I didn’t think about this. It isn’t important to know whether or not the Senate will vote for or against. What’s important is getting the information and proceeding.
LOL and here's where I disagree with Lichtman: the House can do that without initiating impeachment proceedings.

!!!!!!!
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:43 pm

> what Mueller's report will look like, whether it will be submitted to Congress

There's some noise that it will have to be released to Congress if demanded - on national security grounds.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:55 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:43 pm
> what Mueller's report will look like, whether it will be submitted to Congress

There's some noise that it will have to be released to Congress if demanded - on national security grounds.
. . . battles to be fought with outcomes that are not known: today's House vote is itself a sign of the doubt about this. DOJ guidelines say that the AG will brief Congress on the conclusion of the special counsel's work - focused on prosecution decisions - but give the AG wide berth on what and how much to communicate. The guidelines don't say how long or detailed the report to the AG should be. Then there is the Rosenstein proviso.

Basically, Barr just needs to tell Congress that Mueller's work is done and here's who was or will be prosecuted and state any cases where the DOJ overruled Mueller. If Congress subpoenas the report - the DOJ can simply refuse and go to court - and Trump can call on Bikers for Trump.

All I can say is that, given all the issues and uncertainties and debatable areas, I am not betting the farm on "Mueller time," and I don't think Democrats in the House should, either . . .
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:00 am

But it could give them some needed insights, even if they aren't allowed to release much/any of it.


In other news, Dumpy jumps projects onto Beto for "too many hand movements" and asks "is he crazy, or is that just the way he acts"... :rotfl:



(He's probably upset that Beto has a few more - and better - moves than his own strange routine.)
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:07 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:00 am
But it could give them some needed insights, even if they aren't allowed to release much/any of it.


In other news, Dumpy jumps projects onto Beto for "too many hand movements" and asks "is he crazy, or is that just the way he acts"... :rotfl:
Certainly not to jump to Chunky's defense, but O'rourke's body language was about the only thing of substance on display at this announcement... A thoroughly vapid performance.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:11 am

Garsh, I just thought of the poor guys who have to sign Dump's language... :|
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:12 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:00 am
But it could give them some needed insights, even if they aren't allowed to release much/any of it.
But they may well not get any of it. That's the whole point.

I am not saying they won't receive the report. But that they might not. I am not saying that what they get, if they do receive a report, won't have some useful information. It might - it might not.

I am saying that they shouldn't be in expectation for the report, and hinging the strategy on the report, when so much is iffy. That's where I agree wit Pelosi: just keep on with it.
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:16 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:07 am
Certainly not to jump to Chunky's defense, but O'rourke's body language was about the only thing of substance on display at this announcement... A thoroughly vapid performance.
Sad to say, my wife has found O'Rourke's arm gestures (and rhetoric) both distracting and preposterous. She got me laughing hysterically one night after a clip of Beto on stage played (I think it was during his TX Senate race concession speech). His left arm seemed out of control, like a deranged marionette on meth.

His website offers a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:21 am

Tonight Chris Hayes recommended the Adam Serwer piece to which I linked here.
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:25 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:16 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:07 am
Certainly not to jump to Chunky's defense, but O'rourke's body language was about the only thing of substance on display at this announcement... A thoroughly vapid performance.
Sad to say, my wife has found O'Rourke's arm gestures (and rhetoric) both distracting and preposterous. She got me laughing hysterically one night after a clip of Beto on stage played (I think it was during his TX Senate race concession speech). His left arm seemed out of control, like a deranged marionette on meth.
The late Joe Cocker popped briefly into my head.... along with Belushi's imitation on SNL...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:31 am

> Senate rejects Trump's phony emergency

I think the grammatically challenged twiterrer just tweeted out BETO! :-P
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:37 am

For Jeff_36: Across the globe, a question of air safety becomes a question of American leadership:
“Smart friends of mine have pointed out the reactions to 737 MAX might be inflection point for US hegemony,” tweeted Canadian scholar Stephen Saideman.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:31 am

Well, here we go. This showed up in my Twitter feed.

A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:34 am

Just the best words:
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:05 am

LOL
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will spin!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:28 am

Apparently Judge Jackson did not award Stone with any ammunition but simply told him his trial starts in November. :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:34 am

Bannon looks like he hasn't changed clothes since departing the WH.....

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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:37 am

No matter who's gonna win the primaries, Dump will run against

Spoiler:
Image



btw, she now also has grounds to sue... :-P
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Re: Trump won't win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:46 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:37 am
No matter who's gonna win the primaries, Dump will run against

Spoiler:
Image



btw, she now also has grounds to sue... :-P
Which put him on the backfoot bone spurs for the ensuing 4 years...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:50 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:56 pm
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:50 pm
I would imagine that there is a red state/blue state divide in terms of his support among law enforcment, as well as a racial divide.
You're welcome to visit Chicago sometime.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:50 pm
We can't paint a profession that is divided by demographics and geography with a single political brush.
Of course not. Which is why I wrote "to a large extent."
NYC
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:59 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:34 am
Bannon looks like he hasn't changed clothes since departing the WH.....
He looks like he hasn’t showered since the White House.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:00 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:31 am
Well, here we go. This showed up in my Twitter feed.

One problem with Beto's campaign is that, despite his claims to its being a unity campaign, judging from his endorsers Beto's effort looks a little like the divisive, sectarian vehicle of the Blue Dogs who see their opponents as a virtual 5th column.

This puts into relief one of the things I liked about Sherrod Brown - he really could have drawn broad support from across the party. Maybe Beto will grow, maybe he will fill what seems to be a vacuum with substance, maybe he will rise above an off-key start - or maybe someone else will emerge . . . that's what the primaries and nominating campaign are for.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:02 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:59 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:34 am
Bannon looks like he hasn't changed clothes since departing the WH.....
He looks like he hasn’t showered since the White House.
I read that he drew 200 people in Cincinnati and 60 protesters. I hope they bring their tour to Chicago.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:11 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:59 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:34 am
Bannon looks like he hasn't changed clothes since departing the WH.....
He looks like he hasn’t showered since the White House.
And prolly smells like the damp inside of a Gloucester fisherman's boot in August + stale, cheap booze... Enough to curl the nasal hairs in that room...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:11 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:51 pm
Weissmann's departure is to some a sign the probe will be ending soon. I think he deals with financial crimes (money laundering) more than counterintelligence, eh?
That's what I understood. David Archer was the lead name on counterintelligence. He left earlier this month IIRC.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:14 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:00 am
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:31 am
Well, here we go. This showed up in my Twitter feed.

One problem with Beto's campaign is that, despite his claims to its being a unity campaign, judging from his endorsers Beto's effort looks a little like the divisive, sectarian vehicle of the Blue Dogs who see their opponents as a virtual 5th column.

This puts into relief one of the things I liked about Sherrod Brown - he really could have drawn broad support from across the party. Maybe Beto will grow, maybe he will fill what seems to be a vacuum with substance, maybe he will rise above an off-key start - or maybe someone else will emerge . . . that's what the primaries and nominating campaign are for.
You're far more hopeful about his prospects than me...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:15 am

reports tonight from Christchurch in New Zealand on mass shootings of worshippers at two mosques . . . Grauniad:
There are reports that the shooter has released a manifesto online, and a very disturbing video showing the attack.

These are unconfirmed at this stage and we are choosing not to publish more about them until we have been able to verify them. We will bring you more information about this when we have it.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Statistical Mechanic
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:16 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:14 am
You're far more hopeful about his prospects than me...
LOL probably not, I expect him to be what he's been . . . but I've been surprised many times in life . . . he is an empty shirt onto whom the sectarian centrists have glommed . . . and I am not very hopeful that someone else will emerge, either!
. . . all right we are two nations . . .