Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:22 pm

Balmoral95 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:40 am
scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:13 am
Wow. Seems, however unlikely, he could get up to 25 years in state prison on a least one of the charges...
As SM pointed out above, NY pros has to be very careful that their charges don't closely mirror what the Feds have already done...... but, yes, he ought to be thinking about changing his name to "Manacles"....
To avoid the double jeopardy issue, ie: they lose it at trial, they could charge completely unrelated charges: like jay walking and throw the book at him: One month jail time x 48. You never want the MAN looking hard at you with an evil eye. Make him disgorge more of his hidden bank accounts to pay his attornies if nothing else.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:28 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:05 pm
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:02 pm
>> They do need to come up with specifics

See point #4. Trump told a story about people's lives in '16. It was full of {!#%@}, but a lot of people are full of {!#%@}. This time instead of a disembodied laundry list of policies, they need clear policy proposals that support a narrative about people's lives. Unlike Trump, this narrative and those proposals need to be for real and should appeal to what is best in people, not their full of {!#%@} side.
Or they could field a candidate that believes in breathless enthusiasm, youth, bipartisan outreach, national healing, striking a pose, shirtsleeves, the image of something fresh - and listening and eventually having conversations about important issues . . . Beto 2020 Has No Reason to Exist: Of all the major candidates, he brings the least to the Democratic primary.

(good, short summary of Beto's record here, with links out to his voting record: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... presidency - remember: even Beto's bipartisan "conversation" partner from across the aisle says not to vote for him)
Funny, saw that article yesterday and thought of your criticism of him... :D
Actually meant to post it but you beat me to the punch.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:33 pm

Pence on Fox News this morning...
“You have a party on the other side prepared to run on open borders, Socialism...the Green New Deal...abortion on demand, infanticide (shades of white genocide there)...”
{!#%@} tool but there’s your Trump blueprint.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:37 pm

I looked at Beto's voting record. Seems pretty solid to me.

would you vote for Trump?==================>or ANYONE ELSE?

Keep your eyes on your ball, and eschew the too easy role of being a mindless nattering nabob of negativism.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:40 pm

CNN is breaking O’Rourke’s announcement that he is running.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:28 pm
Funny, saw that article yesterday and thought of your criticism of him... :D
Actually meant to post it but you beat me to the punch.
Beto's voting record is kind of meh - he looks like centrist Democrat who bucks the party now and then. He's not spelled out his proposals on some of the key issues, like healthcare. He seems to like staying vague, which I think illustrates the point you made in your post about the need for these candidates to get real and get explicit.

The even bigger issue with his candidacy is that his time in the House was so undistinguished - I can't think of his lead in any area, on any legislation, or as a voice for any set of concerns. Which is fine. But for president? His pitch is basically a posture or attitude. Bipartisanship and unity don't speak to what I meant by the candidates' also needing a narrative which their policy proposals will help communicate.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:07 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:28 pm
Funny, saw that article yesterday and thought of your criticism of him... :D
Actually meant to post it but you beat me to the punch.
Beto's voting record is kind of meh - he looks like centrist Democrat who bucks the party now and then. I don't know his proposals on some of the key issues, like healthcare. He seems to like staying vague. The even bigger issue with his candidacy is that his time in the House was so undistinguished - I can't think of his lead in any area, on any legislation, or as a voice for any set of concerns. Which is fine. But for president? His pitch is basically a posture or attitude.
Vague and overly nattering. bottom line: would you vote for Trump instead?

Natter on.................
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:35 pm

So, back to Balmoral's post the other day, who would be the Dems' best nominee?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:41 pm

I had been wondering if Biden was waiting to see who else would jump in. Y'all think he'll still announce, or let Bernie and Warren duke it out with the young 'uns?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:01 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:41 pm
I had been wondering if Biden was waiting to see who else would jump in. Y'all think he'll still announce, or let Bernie and Warren duke it out with the young 'uns?
As an old man: he'd have to be one kind of crazy ** to "want to win."

**crazy: aka Presidential Hopeful, especially every VP.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:02 pm

He needs to get in soon if that’s what he wants. It’s getting crowded.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:09 pm

I got the feeling he wasn't too thrilled about the idea...
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:16 pm

He could "compromise" and do all the legal things to be "in the running" but give the field time to thin. Take a lot of heat for that....but life is about making choices. i'm sure he would accept the office if we all begged him...........
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:33 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:09 pm
I got the feeling he wasn't too thrilled about the idea...
He leads everyone right now on a hypothetical ticket. TBH I thought 2016 was his year.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:17 pm

Everything I read says that Biden is going to run. His speech to the Firefighters sure sounded like it, too.

For me, Sherrod Brown was the possible candidate with the best chance of beating Trump in the general election, though he would've had a hard time securing the Democratic party nomination.

As it stands, I don't see a clear favorite to beat Trump. Don't see O'Rourke is changing that. I'm with Balmoral on the strength of the field.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:25 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:33 pm
scrmbldggs wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:09 pm
I got the feeling he wasn't too thrilled about the idea...
He leads everyone right now on a hypothetical ticket. TBH I thought 2016 was his year.
It will be interesting to see if/how the numbers will change, now that Beto has officially joined the pack.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:32 pm

Yeah.

Also, to Jeff's point about time a-wastin', Kathleen Rice (NY) - leader of Dump Pelosi revolt and prominent in pro-corporate New Democratic Coalition (of which O'Rourke is a member, too) - put down a marker for conservative, business-oriented Democrats in quickly endorsing O'Rourke. This is supposed to be Biden's swim lane . . .
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Andrew Weissmann is leaving the Mueller probe.

In other Trump-investigation news, Are the NY State Charges Shoddier Than They Look?:
Prosecutors I’ve spoken to seem close to unanimous that the indictments appear poorly drafted. Perhaps this is just the first bite at the apple and they’ll be revised or tightened. I don’t know. But related to that and likely more important: at least some of those with experience in New York State are skeptical whether at least some of these charges will survive New York State’s double jeopardy statute. . . . New York has one of the country’s strictest double jeopardy statutes. . . .

Could they be a signal either to Manafort or perhaps other targets that a presidential pardon doesn’t end the story? In that sense, maybe they’re a placeholder. Perhaps the answer is painfully more prosaic: bad legal work. Or maybe the folks I’ve spoken to are simply wrong.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:51 pm

Weissmann's departure is to some a sign the probe will be ending soon. I think he deals with financial crimes (money laundering) more than counterintelligence, eh?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:03 pm

Biden will announce when he is sure that he's the last to do so.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:09 pm

After the primaries? :-P
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:59 pm

Trump today, in the context of criticizing Paul Ryan for failure to use Congress to go after what Trump calla the left:
So here’s the thing—it’s so terrible what’s happening. You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad. But the left plays it cuter and tougher. Like with all the nonsense that they do in Congress … with all this invest[igations]—that’s all they want to do is –you know, they do things that are nasty. Republicans never played this.
This sounds like an incitement to violence.

Jeff_36 take note: Trump thinks he has the support of the police in this context; I don’t doubt that to a large extent he does.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:12 pm

The stapled genius seems to prefer brute force over intelligence.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:16 pm

Maybe I misunderstood the federal case against Manafort.
NY is charging mortgage fraud, which I thought was what was being charged by the feds when they said 'bank fraud'.
Manafort lied about his real estate assets to get loans.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by MikeN » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:23 pm

You guys are missing the forest for the trees. There is no rush to get in the race now for a big name.
The big picture is it looks like the Democratic Party Establishment is rigging the race again.
One year they ran Carol Moseley-Braun to dilute Al Sharpton's vote share.
2016 Hillary was running the DNC.
This time, they are flooding the zone to allow their pick to ail through by splitting the field.
Alongside that, you have reporters being pushed to run attacks on the prominent names, Harris, Warren, etc.
Klobuchar was always well protected by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and now suddenly she is portrayed as mean to her staff.
My prediction is if Beto enters the race, we will see stories of DUI and fleeing the scene be reported prominently.

I'm not sure who the anointed one is. Perhaps Hillary playing a coy I'm not running, then saying 'oh, they insist that I run'.
Perhaps Biden, maybe Michelle Obama, maybe Oprah.

I'm not sure this strategy will work though. Republicans tried this for Jeb Bush in 2016, but Trump destroyed him. Plus, Democratic Party delegate rules would make this even worse for the anointed one I think.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:39 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:40 pm
CNN is breaking O’Rourke’s announcement that he is running.

Oh dear God please no.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:47 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:32 pm
Yeah.

Also, to Jeff's point about time a-wastin', Kathleen Rice (NY) - leader of Dump Pelosi revolt and prominent in pro-corporate New Democratic Coalition (of which O'Rourke is a member, too) - put down a marker for conservative, business-oriented Democrats in quickly endorsing O'Rourke. This is supposed to be Biden's swim lane . . .
This is my fear. After running as an AOC-lite progressive in the midterms, O'Rourke may well tack to the center after seeing the left wing of the feild crowded by Sanders, Booker, Warren, and Harris (Booker and Harris rhetorically, Warren and Sanders in fact). Its a smart move because there is a market for something that will stand in contrast to the Coalition of the Woke.

The problem here is that O'Rourke will be rightfully branded as a shameless, unprincipled opportunist.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:50 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Trump today, in the context of criticizing Paul Ryan for failure to use Congress to go after what Trump calla the left:
So here’s the thing—it’s so terrible what’s happening. You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad. But the left plays it cuter and tougher. Like with all the nonsense that they do in Congress … with all this invest[igations]—that’s all they want to do is –you know, they do things that are nasty. Republicans never played this.
This sounds like an incitement to violence.

Jeff_36 take note: Trump thinks he has the support of the police in this context; I don’t doubt that to a large extent he does.
I would imagine that there is a red state/blue state divide in terms of his support among law enforcment, as well as a racial divide. We can't paint a profession that is divided by demographics and geography with a single political brush.

I would reckon that he has the support of that numbskull in Portland though.....

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by OutOfBreath » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:29 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:47 pm

The problem here is that O'Rourke will be rightfully branded as a shameless, unprincipled opportunist.
In other words, prime presidential material. You've elected a couple of those before...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:38 pm

MikeN wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:23 pm

I'm not sure who the anointed one is. Perhaps Hillary playing a coy I'm not running, then saying 'oh, they insist that I run'.
No. Hell no. Not a chance.
I suspect that some of the rumblings from her camp were trial balloons that went nowhere.
Perhaps Biden,
Probably the best bet.
maybe Michelle Obama,
LOL
maybe Oprah.
Hey, why not? No worse than some reality TV clown who used to say “You’re fired!!!” like some trained monkey. Also Oprah shows some semblance of being a real human unlike the toad currently squatting in the White House.
I'm not sure this strategy will work though. Republicans tried this for Jeb Bush in 2016, but Trump destroyed him. Plus, Democratic Party delegate rules would make this even worse for the anointed one I think.
I think the Democratic Party learned some lessons from 2016. Time will tell.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:43 pm

OutOfBreath wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:29 pm
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:47 pm

The problem here is that O'Rourke will be rightfully branded as a shameless, unprincipled opportunist.
In other words, prime presidential material. You've elected a couple of those before...

Peace
Dan
You mean like this?

Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:53 pm

Josh Marshall, observing the Democratic conservatives signing up with O'Rourke, describes the movement as "neo-Moultonism." LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:54 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:47 pm
The problem here is that O'Rourke will be rightfully branded as a shameless, unprincipled opportunist.
more like the same empty suit he ran as in Texas . . .
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:56 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:50 pm
I would imagine that there is a red state/blue state divide in terms of his support among law enforcment, as well as a racial divide.
You're welcome to visit Chicago sometime.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:50 pm
We can't paint a profession that is divided by demographics and geography with a single political brush.
Of course not. Which is why I wrote "to a large extent."
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:07 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:38 pm
MikeN wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:23 pm

I'm not sure who the anointed one is. Perhaps Hillary playing a coy I'm not running, then saying 'oh, they insist that I run'.
No. Hell no. Not a chance.
I suspect that some of the rumblings from her camp were trial balloons that went nowhere.
Perhaps Biden,
Probably the best bet.
maybe Michelle Obama,
LOL
maybe Oprah.
Hey, why not? No worse than some reality TV clown who used to say “You’re fired!!!” like some trained monkey. Also Oprah shows some semblance of being a real human unlike the toad currently squatting in the White House.
I'm not sure this strategy will work though. Republicans tried this for Jeb Bush in 2016, but Trump destroyed him. Plus, Democratic Party delegate rules would make this even worse for the anointed one I think.
I think the Democratic Party learned some lessons from 2016. Time will tell.
I've read some fears that the convention will be brokered - and that the superdelegates, now not voting on the first ballot if their votes could be decisive but allowed to vote on subsequent ballots, will end up naming the nominee.

Conspiracy theorists have at it. But I doubt this: I think that money will winnow the field quickly.

I read that Trump is afraid of Biden. I sure as hell am.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:10 pm

Senate rejects Trump's phony emergency 59-41, with 12 Republicans voting with the majority. They didn't fall too far short of being able to override his veto.
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Statistical Mechanic
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:12 pm

MikeN wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:23 pm
You guys are missing the forest for the trees. There is no rush to get in the race now for a big name.
The big picture is it looks like the Democratic Party Establishment is rigging the race again.
One year they ran Carol Moseley-Braun to dilute Al Sharpton's vote share.
2016 Hillary was running the DNC.
This time, they are flooding the zone to allow their pick to ail through by splitting the field.
Alongside that, you have reporters being pushed to run attacks on the prominent names, Harris, Warren, etc.
Klobuchar was always well protected by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and now suddenly she is portrayed as mean to her staff.
My prediction is if Beto enters the race, we will see stories of DUI and fleeing the scene be reported prominently.

I'm not sure who the anointed one is. Perhaps Hillary playing a coy I'm not running, then saying 'oh, they insist that I run'.
Perhaps Biden, maybe Michelle Obama, maybe Oprah.

I'm not sure this strategy will work though. Republicans tried this for Jeb Bush in 2016, but Trump destroyed him. Plus, Democratic Party delegate rules would make this even worse for the anointed one I think.
Jesus {!#%@} Christ, if you're going to spin a conspiracy, you need to have someone running it and benefiting from it.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:14 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:59 pm
Trump today, in the context of criticizing Paul Ryan for failure to use Congress to go after what Trump calla the left:
So here’s the thing—it’s so terrible what’s happening. You know, the left plays a tougher game, it’s very funny. I actually think that the people on the right are tougher, but they don’t play it tougher. Okay? I can tell you I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad. But the left plays it cuter and tougher. Like with all the nonsense that they do in Congress … with all this invest[igations]—that’s all they want to do is –you know, they do things that are nasty. Republicans never played this.
This sounds like an incitement to violence.

Jeff_36 take note: Trump thinks he has the support of the police in this context; I don’t doubt that to a large extent he does.
Bikers for Maduro? Maduro’s muscle: Politically backed motorcycle gangs known as 'colectivos' are the enforcers for Venezuela’s authoritarian leader
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:03 pm

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:07 pm

I read that Trump is afraid of Biden. I sure as hell am.
The political masochisim here is stunning. Trump will try to win over undecided voters by protraying the Democrats as Venezualan socialists, with a massive dose of race-baiting thrown in if Booker or Harris is nominated. It is therefore IMPERATIVE that the candidate be unassalable from either of those angles. Biden may not be impressive in a normal election cycle, but he is tailor made to destroy Trump.

There would be nothing Trump could say or do. He would only be able to close his eyes and wait for the inevitable.

The key here is depriving him of a fighting chance. I don't understand why so many on the party's left seem hell-bent on giving Trump another term. They are a virtual fifth columm at this point.