Trump will win!

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scrmbldggs
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:49 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:25 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:07 am
Reading, watching - House Democrats are tripping themselves up and confusing themselves in trying to explain Pelosi's remarks from yesterday. To Balmoral's point earlier.
They should collectively agree to shut the hell up until January 2021.
This kind of nonsense should help them clam up: "Every single Democrat running for president should be made to answer: do they agree with the Speaker who stands in opposition to baseless impeachment charges, or will they risk fracturing the country by bowing to the radical elements in their party who want to disenfranchise the American people and overturn the legitimate and lawful result of the last election?" -- K. McInane (or some such word) of the Dump him Trump campaign
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:59 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:38 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:25 am
Looking at the Dem field, we're facked....
Biden would be a safe pick at this point. He would handily beat Trump in a general contest and he would restore the rightful order of things as POTUS. Sanders would destroy Trump but I fear he would bring continued disorder. What is needed now is a return to normalcy.
WTF?

Warren G Harding (speaking of corrupt bastards and a {!#%@} system) used Return to Normalcy as his campaign slogan in 1920. If you want to try to sell misleading nostalgic nostrums, and chimeras of a heroic past, you need to choose your allusions better.
I am nostalgic - if anything - for 2016. We need not explore an idealized past. A return to political stability in the United States would make a world of difference in restoring the post-war international order that Trump and Putin are seeking to shatter.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:03 am

Senate Republicans have been meeting with The Good Christian Gentleman to avert a defeat for Trump in Thursday's vote on the House bill deny Trump his national emergency.

The Senate GOP's likely pitch is this: pass legislation pulling back national emergency powers in return for allowing Trump his national emergency. This is presented as responsible governance.

The essence is to give Trump his Wall no matter what - and limit the president's emergency powers thereafter so that a future (Democratic?) president can't use the same powers being granted to Trump. What a crock of {!#%@}.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:06 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:59 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:38 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:25 am
Looking at the Dem field, we're facked....
Biden would be a safe pick at this point. He would handily beat Trump in a general contest and he would restore the rightful order of things as POTUS. Sanders would destroy Trump but I fear he would bring continued disorder. What is needed now is a return to normalcy.
WTF?

Warren G Harding (speaking of corrupt bastards and a {!#%@} system) used Return to Normalcy as his campaign slogan in 1920. If you want to try to sell misleading nostalgic nostrums, and chimeras of a heroic past, you need to choose your allusions better.
I am nostalgic - if anything - for 2016. We need not explore an idealized past. A return to political stability in the United States would make a world of difference in restoring the post-war international order that Trump and Putin are seeking to shatter.
I lack the same nostalgia (for starters, that would be the same post-war international order that tore up the Middle East with attendant downstream effects after 2001 . . . and on and on) - but even if I didn't, I know that the global order of 2016 was not "the rightful order of things." There is no rightful order of things.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:25 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:42 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:22 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:06 am
Just to say, I'm already missing Upton. :(
He left?
As the StatMech ordered: viewtopic.php?f=80&t=30868&sid=3482d72c ... 42104b00bc :frown:
Very sorry to hear that.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:02 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:06 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:59 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:38 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:25 am
Looking at the Dem field, we're facked....
Biden would be a safe pick at this point. He would handily beat Trump in a general contest and he would restore the rightful order of things as POTUS. Sanders would destroy Trump but I fear he would bring continued disorder. What is needed now is a return to normalcy.
WTF?

Warren G Harding (speaking of corrupt bastards and a {!#%@} system) used Return to Normalcy as his campaign slogan in 1920. If you want to try to sell misleading nostalgic nostrums, and chimeras of a heroic past, you need to choose your allusions better.
I am nostalgic - if anything - for 2016. We need not explore an idealized past. A return to political stability in the United States would make a world of difference in restoring the post-war international order that Trump and Putin are seeking to shatter.
I lack the same nostalgia (for starters, that would be the same post-war international order that tore up the Middle East with attendant downstream effects after 2001 . . . and on and on) - but even if I didn't, I know that the global order of 2016 was not "the rightful order of things." There is no rightful order of things.
A return to the world order post 1945? Sorry, I'm not really getting what you're trying to say here....

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:15 am

Me or Jeff? LOL I don't understand, either.

I'm not nostalgic for the postwar order, truth be told, or 2016. I was replying, however, to Jeff_36's 2016 nostalgia, as the bi-polar order of the postwar era has been long superseded. 2016 and "postwar" are quite different beasts, in my understanding.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:32 am

I read that as a time when allies were just that, not perceived enemies. Or cash cows. (A little simplistic, but I guess yous get my drift.)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:39 am

This Jeff thinks we are all collectively screwed.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:41 am

Mutually beneficial - as Trumplings would have it. :?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:46 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:15 am
Me or Jeff? LOL I don't understand, either.

I'm not nostalgic for either, truth be told. I was replying to Jeff_36's 2016 nostalgia, however, as the bi-polar order of the postwar era has been long superseded. 2016 and "postwar" are quite different beasts, in my understanding.
Sorry, asking Jeff....

The problem I'm having here is that history and human behavior are a continuum and it doesn't seem to me there's a dateable cutoff to say that one particular set of years are better/worse than another...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:54 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am
scrmbldggs wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:50 am
Everybody gets a shot?
When was that again?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:22 am

So much of this makes sense:
Talk about real issues and stop chasing shiny objects:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanity ... -trump/amp
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:46 am

I think they're trying. And the media won't let them. Maybe they should adopt some parts of the "McTurtle protocol".
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:42 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:46 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:15 am
Me or Jeff? LOL I don't understand, either.

I'm not nostalgic for either, truth be told. I was replying to Jeff_36's 2016 nostalgia, however, as the bi-polar order of the postwar era has been long superseded. 2016 and "postwar" are quite different beasts, in my understanding.
Sorry, asking Jeff....

The problem I'm having here is that history and human behavior are a continuum and it doesn't seem to me there's a dateable cutoff to say that one particular set of years are better/worse than another...
The garden of Eden? Other than that, I can't figure it out, either.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:04 am

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:23 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:22 am
So much of this makes sense:
Talk about real issues and stop chasing shiny objects:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanity ... -trump/amp
Gotta disagree :)

I find it aggravating that so many journalists repeat the GOP line about Democratic party "litmus tests" . . . they help make a partisan charge (also the focus on AOC plays into this) into a truism. From my pov it is is just as OK that the Democratic party includes Joe Biden and Cheri Bustos as it is that it includes Elizabeth Warren and Rashida Tlaib.

It's also aggravating that so much energy goes into helping Trump frame the 2020 election as a choice between socialism (Venezuela) and capitalism (Trump's cover word for grifting, grafting and groping).

And, no, voters don't only vote on economics, even when they vote for Democrats. But if they did, Trump wouldn't be president.

I really didn't like that piece, but then again my wife put on Chris Matthews twice this week and he framed the debate the same way.

I do realize, however, that pieces like it are de rigueur at this point and I should just get used to them.

Health care, of course, remains an obvious core issue, one that the Democrats rode successfully during the midterms. Maybe, just maybe more important than reparations, weed, and sex work (some of the candidates are almost writing '72 style attack ads against themselves at this point . . . ). But in 2020 the leading candidates will have to say what non-Trumpian health care policies are . . . so, yeah, there will be contending ideas and proposals. Taking one set of ideas and labeling it extreme, socialist, and a litmus test does the party and public a disservice. I personally think Sherrod Brown had it more right than Sanders, but I wish a real debate on it were possible, without these red-bait-y "analysis" pieces.

OTOH we seem to be, sadly, in a transition period during which, as of now, the Democrats have neither a strong, leading message or personality.

profile of Cory Booker, posting link to correct some of Jeff_36's disinformation about Booker: Cory Booker's story so far: is he anti-establishment, or part of it?

(edits: I can't type anymore!)
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:29 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:24 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:46 am
I think they're trying. And the media won't let them. Maybe they should adopt some parts of the "McTurtle protocol".
That "the media won't let them" so much reminds me of some of what happened '16 that my skin crawls.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:59 am

This is the kind of dishonest propaganda that the "socialism vs capitalism" framing of 2020 amplifies: The patriot's guide to socialism
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:13 pm

Where's Upton?!?!? :(
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:27 pm

He's returned to greener pastures. viewtopic.php?f=80&t=30868
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:15 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:06 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:59 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:38 am
Balmoral95 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:25 am
Looking at the Dem field, we're facked....
Biden would be a safe pick at this point. He would handily beat Trump in a general contest and he would restore the rightful order of things as POTUS. Sanders would destroy Trump but I fear he would bring continued disorder. What is needed now is a return to normalcy.
WTF?

Warren G Harding (speaking of corrupt bastards and a {!#%@} system) used Return to Normalcy as his campaign slogan in 1920. If you want to try to sell misleading nostalgic nostrums, and chimeras of a heroic past, you need to choose your allusions better.
I am nostalgic - if anything - for 2016. We need not explore an idealized past. A return to political stability in the United States would make a world of difference in restoring the post-war international order that Trump and Putin are seeking to shatter.
I lack the same nostalgia (for starters, that would be the same post-war international order that tore up the Middle East with attendant downstream effects after 2001 . . . and on and on) - but even if I didn't, I know that the global order of 2016 was not "the rightful order of things." There is no rightful order of things.
I share your reservations. However, I would take "the Davos System" over an anarchic international order any day. It's gotten to the point that I would even enthusiastically embrace Booker if he were to beat Trump. I have cone to terms with the fact that most of his base is irredeemably ignorant of their own best interests and that the GOP is either hostage to his will or cheerfully complicit.
Last edited by Jeff_36 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:21 pm

Balmoral95 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:46 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:15 am
Me or Jeff? LOL I don't understand, either.

I'm not nostalgic for either, truth be told. I was replying to Jeff_36's 2016 nostalgia, however, as the bi-polar order of the postwar era has been long superseded. 2016 and "postwar" are quite different beasts, in my understanding.
Sorry, asking Jeff....

The problem I'm having here is that history and human behavior are a continuum and it doesn't seem to me there's a dateable cutoff to say that one particular set of years are better/worse than another...
By "post war" I was reeferrung to the liberal international system pre-2016.

And I would strongly argue that the Trump presidency is the worst since Andrew Johnson, and that by default he is inferior to any post-war president that preceeded him.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:25 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:32 am
I read that as a time when allies were just that, not perceived enemies. Or cash cows. (A little simplistic, but I guess yous get my drift.)
You are absolutely correct.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:50 pm

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:53 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:23 am
quote="Jeffk 1970
So much of this makes sense:
Talk about real issues and stop chasing shiny objects:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanity ... -trump/amp

Gotta disagree :)
No, not a disagreement!!!! :lol:

I find it aggravating that so many journalists repeat the GOP line about Democratic party "litmus tests" . . . they help make a partisan charge (also the focus on AOC plays into this) into a truism. From my pov it is is just as OK that the Democratic party includes Joe Biden and Cheri Bustos as it is that it includes Elizabeth Warren and Rashida Tlaib.
I agree with you on that. I took the opposite view by reading that article, IMO what it is saying is concentrate on core issues and spell out what you stand for. The article made the point how Sanders tells everyone who he is and what he stands for. Yes, he’s a Democratic Socialist but not in the scary sense of taking your hamburgers away from you. He gets workers and their concerns.

I also agree that chasing down Twitter memes and Breitbart BS isn’t as important as spelling out what it is you stand for.
It's also aggravating that so much energy goes into helping Trump frame the 2020 election as a choice between socialism (Venezuela) and capitalism (Trump's cover word for grifting, grafting and groping).
I saw that right away with his State of the Union address. I knew that was going to be his talking point, that and portraying Democrats as baby killers. Oh, and border security with the hordes gang members and illegals pouring over the border.

Health care, of course, remains an obvious core issue, one that the Democrats rode successfully during the midterms. Maybe, just maybe more important than reparations, weed, and sex work (some of the candidates are almost writing '72 style attack ads against themselves at this point . . . ). But in 2020 the leading candidates will have to say what non-Trumpian health care policies are . . . so, yeah, there will be contending ideas and proposals. Taking one set of ideas and labeling it extreme, socialist, and a litmus test does the party and public a disservice. I personally think Sherrod Brown had it more right than Sanders, but I wish a real debate on it were possible, without these red-bait-y "analysis" pieces.
Healthcare, taxes, income inequality, education....if I’m the Democratic candidates I hammer Trump and the Republicans on all these things.

I think I’ve said all of this before but those are what I’d hammer on. Never mind impeachment, let that happen naturally without dwelling on it.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:09 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:50 pm
Will people ever get used again to a Speaker with a spine? :-P



(btw, apparently, the last invertebrate said that Trump might/would not win a second term...)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:29 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:53 pm
No, not a disagreement!!!! :lol:
Damn! LOL
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:53 pm
Healthcare, taxes, income inequality, education....if I’m the Democratic candidates I hammer Trump and the Republicans on all these things.

I think I’ve said all of this before but those are what I’d hammer on. Never mind impeachment, let that happen naturally without dwelling on it.
But in the presidential race, the Democrats - or at least the candidates - need to offer specific plans on these issues. Given that the House races are all over the map, the pitch in '18 could also be all over the map - kind of: "do better in this general direction" plus "we know what we're against." In the presidential campaign, the candidate needs a much more specific stance.

Thanks for reminding me that they are baby killers. I'd forgotten. :oops:

One of the ironies is that it is some Dems in Congress and the networks/media around them that push impeachment - not as far as I can tell the 2020 candidates. I don't think they are guilty of what the articles charged. Most really are promoting agendas - leaving aside Beto :) Warren has been pretty good IMO, pushing some really important perspectives that need discussion and consideration (like breaking up tech monopolies).
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:41 pm

They do need to come up with specifics. It can’t be all about Trump.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
viewtopic.php?f=39&t=31585&p=713843#p713843

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:42 pm

There is absolutely no question that Trump should be impeached - there is incontrovertible proof that he committed High Crimes and Misdemeanors, has been Bribed and the only reason he hasn't committed treason is that we are currently not at war.
But politically, it is just not expedient to impeach him unless Republicans are on board - as Pelosi mentioned, he is not worth the upset that a Democrat-only Impeachment would cause.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:02 pm

>> unless Republicans are on board

Or, since being on board is a dynamic process depending on evidence and persuasion, "gettable"; since Republicans cannot be convinced of anything outside their own echo chamber and interests, I agree with Pelosi and your take in judging Trump unfit for office (funny how the White House leaves that part out!) and Senate Republicans "ungettable."

Democrats focus should be on 1) winning the presidency, 2) winning the Senate and holding the House, 3) inflicting the maximum possible political pain and damage on Trump and the Republicans, and 4) developing a narrative that is simple, compelling, and appealing.

>> They do need to come up with specifics

See point #4. Trump told a story about people's lives in '16. It was full of {!#%@}, but a lot of people are full of {!#%@}. This time instead of a disembodied laundry list of policies, they need clear policy proposals that support a narrative about people's lives. Unlike Trump, this narrative and those proposals need to be for real and should appeal to what is best in people, not their full of {!#%@} side.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:22 pm

Manafort sentence, from TPM:
12:10 p.m.: There’a a lot of talk in press room in the D.C. courthouse about how that math works out. Manafort is also getting credit nine months of time served, meaning he’ll spend another 81 months total in prison.

12:02 p.m.: The judge has sentenced Manafort to 60 months for count 1, the conspiracy charge, but 30 months will be concurrent — meaning at the same time — as the sentence imposed in Virginia. Judge Berman Jackson sentenced Manafort to 13 months for the witness tampering count. That sentence will be consecutive, meaning on top of the other sentences. That means, essentially, Manafort faces a sentence of 43 months prison in addition to the 47 months he received in the Virginia case.
This is very close in total time to what commentators were predicting last night, although I think the concurrent part might be a twist. In the two cases, Manafort has been sentenced to nearly 7 years, in addition to time served, in federal prison.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:30 pm

Is Manafort being dangled as Pardon bait?

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:33 pm

for context on the sentencing, here's a link to TPM's live blog: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker ... -live-blog
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:55 pm

Looks like the time he'll serve concurrent will be about the same as he got from Judge Ellis - 2.7 yrs (with time off for good behavior).
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:05 pm

Manafort was charged, moments after his federal sentence was handed down, with a number of felonies by NY state:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:10 pm

meanwhile in DC, the liars lie:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by landrew » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:26 pm

The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm

this went well LOL

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Re: Trump will $in!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:00 pm

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