Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:01 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:19 pm
IMO, of humiliating him - i.e winning 450+ electoral votes.
Now...let’s not get ahead of ourselves.... :D



Image

Jeff, the reality is that the South is a Republican stronghold. So is the West with the exception of the Pacific Coast, New Mexico, maybe Arizona and Colorado.

Now, those votes add up. Texas and Florida are solidly Republican, I don’t give a damn that people seem to think Florida can be flipped. I’ll believe it when I see it. California is a major source of electoral votes and so is New York. I think those are safely Democratic though I no longer take things for granted.

Rural America is solidly Republican so your urban and Suburban voters need to step up and cast enough votes to counteract the rural voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is another reason why all those Western states are not really in play, there’s not enough urban or suburban voters to counter the rural voters who vote in a Republican block.

So that leaves us with the entity formerly known as the “Blue Wall.” Trump successfully cracked that in 2016. Granted, he had certain advantages with Clinton. She is not particularly liked by anyone and that includes me. Third Party voters and others who didn’t bother to show up helped Trump crack the “Blue Wall.”

Before the government shutdown I gave Trump decent odds of getting re-elected. The shutdown hurt him badly and he compounded the problem by caving in regards to his beloved wall. That turned a lot of his right-wing pundits against him.

That doesn’t mean he can’t rebound. Republicans stand solidly behind him and the RNC is essentially handing him the nomination. The hardcore Trumplings will stand with him come thick or thin. They know he is kinda their last hope, the guy who will flip the Supreme Court in their direction for decades to come if he gets that second term.

So I wouldn’t go counting electoral votes just yet. There is still two more years of Trump at the very least.

That is unless Mueller comes callin’ with a small pair of handcuffs.... :lol:
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:10 pm

The Republican Party wouldn’t see this as a problem, they prefer uneducated people:

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/01/26/politi ... 9999999999
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:17 pm

I think this sums up the above nicely:

Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:24 pm

Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:39 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:12 pm
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:28 pm
Jeff_36 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 5:24 pm
A man who fought for his country mocked and derided by acolytes of a draft dodger. What has happened to America?
Phillips never "fought for his country," to be strictly accurate about this point. He served in the Marines Corps Reserve from '72-'76 but never deployed overseas. Most of the time of his military service Phillips was a refrigeration repairperson.
Yes, I have discovered this as well lately. This was not initally publicized when I made that comment to be fair.

That being said, despite the subsiquent revelations about the episode, the video footage still shows the students making mocking fake language sounds.
And tomahawk chops and so on. I didn't know initially, either, what Phillips military record was: it seems that some news organizations picked up earlier remarks of his, where he said he was a veteran who'd serving during Vietnam times, and made a bit of a leap. I personally don't see that the supposedly "narrative changing" clarifications have done much to change the basic outlines of the incident. Whether the man was a military heron combat veteran, or whatever also doesn't change what the Covington kids were up to.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:42 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 3:25 am
They look happy:

Image
They look like they are at a funeral. Come to bury their political careers, perhaps.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:45 am

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:47 am

Damn, parody Trump got sent to Twitter jail:
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:48 am

Best. Sign. Ever.
Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:59 am

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 1:26 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:01 pm

Image
Just calculating those states that are solidly Republican I get 219 Electoral votes (I included Arizona, upon reflection I think that’s solidly Republican).

Democrat is 216.

Now I didn’t include the states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, etc. that fell in Trump’s lap in either total. It is interesting how close it really is.

My total might be off a little way, I was looking at the map and working on a calculator.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:00 am

Quite right to discount PA...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:01 am

BTW, getting all kinds of "not secure" warnings here on all SSF pages...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:09 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:01 am
BTW, getting all kinds of "not secure" warnings here on all SSF pages...
Security certificate expired, it’s fine. Ironically I get the same warning on one of my work websites.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:32 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:01 pm
Jeff_36 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:19 pm
IMO, of humiliating him - i.e winning 450+ electoral votes.
Now...let’s not get ahead of ourselves.... :D



Image

Jeff, the reality is that the South is a Republican stronghold. So is the West with the exception of the Pacific Coast, New Mexico, maybe Arizona and Colorado.

Now, those votes add up. Texas and Florida are solidly Republican, I don’t give a damn that people seem to think Florida can be flipped. I’ll believe it when I see it. California is a major source of electoral votes and so is New York.
Ive been hoping that the suburban swing that we observed in the midterms will reap benifits in FLA.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:55 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:32 am
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:01 pm
Jeff_36 wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:19 pm
IMO, of humiliating him - i.e winning 450+ electoral votes.
Now...let’s not get ahead of ourselves.... :D



Image

Jeff, the reality is that the South is a Republican stronghold. So is the West with the exception of the Pacific Coast, New Mexico, maybe Arizona and Colorado.

Now, those votes add up. Texas and Florida are solidly Republican, I don’t give a damn that people seem to think Florida can be flipped. I’ll believe it when I see it. California is a major source of electoral votes and so is New York.
Ive been hoping that the suburban swing that we observed in the midterms will reap benifits in FLA.
I’ll believe it when it happens. I think Florida and Texas are similar, your cities swing blue but it isn’t enough to counter the large rural vote.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:45 am

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:16 am

Poor Teddy, all that petroleum by-product spread for years on his head just hasn't worked out...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:38 am

Looks like the chemicals are leaking into...whatever it is infesting his face:

Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:50 am

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:56 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:38 am
Looks like the chemicals are leaking into...whatever it is infesting his face:

Image
Could be... or he's trying to curry favor with the conservative rabbinate... the apocalypse being just around the corner and all....

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:13 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:56 am
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:38 am
Looks like the chemicals are leaking into...whatever it is infesting his face:

Image
Could be... or he's trying to curry favor with the conservative rabbinate... the apocalypse being just around the corner and all....
Why, that would make him and Pence snuggle buddies. As long as Ted leaves his wife at home.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 3:47 pm

Yet Okies keep voting people like him back into office:
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/01/24/us/okl ... ook.com%2F
He said a much more effective way for teachers to voice their concerns is to contact lawmakers like himself.
:rotfl:
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:03 pm

Electoral college: there is no way a strong Democrat rolls up 450 electoral votes. That would leave Trump with just 88. Uh, no. In a word.

The Republicans could run, well, Trump or a trained seal and get the 220 or so electoral votes which Jeffk noted. I actually count AZ as a swing still (moved 5.5 pts to Dems '12 to '16, elected Dem to Sen '18 in very tight race), so my 220 or so doesn't include AZ for GOP.

FL, WI, MI, and PA have to remain toss-up for now . . . Sherrod Brown might unlock WI, MI, and PA for the Dems and might even possibly maybe move OH to toss-up. But NC and FL will remain elusive for the Dems (and Gillum's ethical problems appear more serious than ever, with potential damage to the FL state party's brand) and GA and TX (Cruz friggin' won in TX) even more so.

Putting OH into play would be a big deal, IMO. I think that Brown/Harris maximizes the Dems' potential. OTOH Clinton's camp is again hinting she may run. There is no end to the misery sadists like causing.

It is important to take cognizance of three interrelated points: 1) the political polarization and the size of the hard and fast political camps in the US, 2) the regional distribution of those camps, and 3) the relation of the geographic distribution of popular votes to the electoral college.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:39 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:03 pm
Electoral college: there is no way a strong Democrat rolls up 450 electoral votes. That would leave Trump with just 88. Uh, no. In a word.

The Republicans could run, well, Trump or a trained seal and get the 220 or so electoral votes which Jeffk noted. I actually count AZ as a swing still (moved 5.5 pts to Dems '12 to '16, elected Dem to Sen '18 in very tight race), so my 220 or so doesn't include AZ for GOP.

FL, WI, MI, and PA have to remain toss-up for now . . . Sherrod Brown might unlock WI, MI, and PA for the Dems and might even possibly maybe move OH to toss-up. But NC and FL will remain elusive for the Dems (and Gillum's ethical problems appear more serious than ever, with potential damage to the FL state party's brand) and GA and TX (Cruz friggin' won in TX) even more so.

Putting OH into play would be a big deal, IMO. I think that Brown/Harris maximizes the Dems' potential. OTOH Clinton's camp is again hinting she may run. There is no end to the misery sadists like causing.

It is important to take cognizance of three interrelated points: 1) the political polarization and the size of the hard and fast political camps in the US, 2) the regional distribution of those camps, and 3) the relation of the geographic distribution of popular votes to the electoral college.
Agreed: The Dems could run the Baby Jesus hisself and not get to 450. As for HRC, she's got to be part masochist as well as DJT will kick her fat arse again (I would like to see her try, though, and get bumped off by a relative newcomer for the nomination).

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Gord » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:35 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:39 pm
Agreed: The Dems could run the Baby Jesus hisself and not get to 450.
Babies can't run, they're not old enough. Minimum age is 35. Jeebus didn't even make it to 33, did he?

Besides, he was clearly born in Kenya or something.

I'm also not sure the dead can run for the presidency.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by JO 753 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:46 am

The brain ded can!
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:20 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:59 am
Useless! No way the motormouth would EVER sign a non-disclosure agreement.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:53 pm

LOL
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:24 pm



No {!#%@}, Sherlock. Where've ya been? LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:19 pm

The Howard Schultz boomlet is even dumber than Betomania and about as ill-conceived and appealing as Clinton Redux. No wonder Trump is tweeting and trying to goad the guy into running.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:25 pm

Tom Brokaw making hapless apologies for saying what he really thinks (Latinos need to work better at assimilating or whatever): "my twitter acct failed me at the worst time."

I think the dude's got his brain and Twitter confused. As some wag wrote, he'd best enjoy his retirement and fill it up watching Gunsmoke reruns.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:03 pm

Ha, ha.........into race relations and political correctness eh? Evidently, I fell asleep before that segment was reached. So, I looked it up:
“On the Republican side, a lot of people see the rise of an extraordinary, important new constituent in American politics, Hispanics, who will come here and all be Democrats,” he said.
He could have added "mostly....democrats" and been accurate. As a political issue, totally appropriate for welfare hating Republicans to be against the welfare receiving recipent class. Didn't BushtheRetard get near 40% of their vote? Seems their religion makes them more conservative as does their work ethic. Always a mix of things.
“Also, I hear, when I push people a little harder, 'Well, I don’t know whether I want brown grandbabies.' I mean, that’s also a part of it. It’s the intermarriage that is going on and the cultures that are conflicting with each other,” he added.
Well, THATS pure racism. The man should be tarred and feathered. If YOUR kiddies want to marry a brown skinned person giving YOU tanned babies.......I'd think anyone but a Nazi would highly approve. I hope my kiddie marries Salma Hayak. Nice shade of brown going on there.
Brokaw went on to say, “I also happen to believe that the Hispanics should work harder at assimilation. That’s one of the things I’ve been saying for a long time. You know, they ought not to be just codified in their communities but make sure that all their kids are learning to speak English, and that they feel comfortable in the communities. And that’s going to take outreach on both sides, frankly.”
Last I heard, Hispanics get assimilated same as every other group has....."maybe" a little slower as it is easier to stay within that culture in the enclaves that do exist........but only for the old folks. Anybody EVER met an Hispanic in his teens that didn't speak English?...........even in Mexico????

Yeap.......poor old Tom..........gunsmoke it is. TV or otherwise.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:20 pm

Here's a question: what today is the Republican "offer" or program besides 1) resentment about racial and gender progress, 2) the Wall and massive cutbacks on legal immigration, 3) tax cuts for the wealthy, and 4) authoritarianism (devotion to Leader)? Oh and 5) incompetence.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:35 pm

The answer is: today is nothing new. The Republicans became the party bought by the AlreadyTooRich sometime close to the end of WW2 and totally solidified with Ronald Regan.

..........add to your list: trying to Privatize Social Security.

..............preventing Socialized Medicine.

..................tax cuts for the wealthy being the Leader but the goal is to starve the beast. Its not enough to be a winner in this Republican drive to excess.........you also have to grind your heel into the opportunities for anyone else to enjoy the same.

THE CLASS WAR.......is over. Won by the AlreadyTooRich. Just waiting for the revolution. It will be some time coming given that the Dumbocrats are 90% bought off by the same avarice, fraud, greed, self-dealing that DEFINES politics in USA today.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:53 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:25 pm
Tom Brokaw making hapless apologies for saying what he really thinks (Latinos need to work better at assimilating or whatever): "my twitter acct failed me at the worst time."

I think the dude's got his brain and Twitter confused. As some wag wrote, he'd best enjoy his retirement and fill it up watching Gunsmoke reruns.
And polishing up the myth/legend of the Greatest Generation. (Bad history.)
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:27 pm

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:30 pm

Trump's mole in the DOJ makes an announcement:

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:41 pm

by the way, Robert Frost was quoted observing that a liberal is someone too broadminded to take his own side in an argument
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Mon Jan 28, 2019 11:13 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 9:03 pm
OTOH Clinton's camp is again hinting she may run. There is no end to the misery sadists like causing.
Christ, can she not take a hint? America gave her a solid middle finger the last time.

I am seeing more positive Clinton stuff on places like Twitter. I’m not worried at this point. IMO the Democratic Party is completely disgusted with her and wants nothing to do with her.

But, never say never. I think if she tossses her hat in she gets killed.

I am concerned with Bernie Sanders. I’m starting to see the crazed Bernie crowd rising up from the ashes and pushing for their man on things like Twitter.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”