It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:53 am

Released House Minority findings claim Lordy, there might be tapes?
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:54 am

99% reporting - Lamb +95
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:55 am

an MSNBC analyst is speculating on impeachment when (??) the Democrats re-take the House this fall - good grief
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:58 am

Washington Cty is 100% in; 2 precincts in Westmoreland remain - these would be strongly Saccone
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:01 am

95 votes separate the candidates, Lamb in the lead. I don’t think this gets settled tonight.
“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:01 am

for election day vote, Saccone should end up in the lead - Dave Wasserman:
UPDATE: Lamb (D) lead down to 95 votes (0.04%), with two Westmoreland Co. precincts outstanding. Still, assuming no tabulation errors, absentees should be enough to keep Lamb ahead by at least a few hundred. #PA18
as to those absentee ballots . . .
Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They've historically skewed Dem 2) More than half of them are from Allegheny Co. (despite Allegheny only being ~43% of #PA18).
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:04 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:95 votes separate the candidates, Lamb in the lead. I don’t think this gets settled tonight.
If the final result is within 0.5%, there is a mandatory recount, so not likely tonight
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:04 am

Does anyone know if Pennsylvania has a requirement for a recount if the votes are close?
“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
Benjamin Ferencz in a letter to Telford Taylor, December 1951

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:05 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:95 votes separate the candidates, Lamb in the lead. I don’t think this gets settled tonight.
If the final result is within 0.5%, there is a mandatory recount, so not likely tonight
Oops, I commented just as you answered.
“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
Benjamin Ferencz in a letter to Telford Taylor, December 1951

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:05 am

Lamb now +847 - MSNBC is trying to find out where these votes came from (whether first absentee ballots or last 2 Westmoreland precincts)
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:07 am

CNN has it the same:

https://www.cnn.com/
“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
Benjamin Ferencz in a letter to Telford Taylor, December 1951

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:12 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:a White House official is already declaring victory: “this isn’t a blowout — for now, we’ll happily take it,” which is a strange view of a +20 GOP district

MSNBC: Allegheny is all in; Washington Cty has 9 countries left to report, the ballots are in transit - 55-57% should break for Saccone - might be enough for Saccone to close the gap . . . which leaves us with the absentee ballots
Santorum willing to concede to Lamb, doesn't think Sacone can pull it with remaining ballots

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:12 am

NY Times says that there are still 2 precincts outstanding so it appears that we are starting to get absentee ballots . . .

Allegheny absentee ballots go 1930-1170 to Lamb +752 which is why Lamb jumped to +847
So only Republican areas are still to come in - 2 Westmoreland precincts, 3143 absentee ballots requested in the 3 Republican counties

Lamb could hold on - if 57% of the outstanding ballots go Saccone, then Saccone close 500-700 votes on Lamb

Verdict: recount
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:17 am

MSNBC

- Lamb leads by 847
- 2 precincts: Saccone gains 200 - reducing Lamb's lead to 650
- absentee ballots: Saccone needs 63% to catch Lamb - but he's running at 57% on election day

So MSNBC comes out pretty much where my calculation was

Plus . . . we likely won't have absentee ballots from 2 counties !!

Republican operatives are spinning the result to MSNBC as a victory LOL
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:18 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:NY Times says that there are still 2 precincts outstanding so it appears that we are starting to get absentee ballots . . .

Allegheny absentee ballots go 1930-1170 to Lamb +752 which is why Lamb jumped to +847
So only Republican areas are still to come in - 2 Westmoreland precincts, 3143 absentee ballots requested in the 3 Republican counties

Lamb could hold on - if 57% of the outstanding ballots go Saccone, then Saccone close 500-700 votes on Lamb

Verdict: recount
No doubt... and a tweet blitzkrieg about "rigged", "fake" and cetera

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:19 am

not to mention a great boost from Dear Leader who pulled dullard Saccone to even when all odds ran against him LOL
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:22 am

MSNBC now says that Washington and Westmoreland counties will count their absentee ballots tonight (in 2016 Trump's % fell off in the absentee count in both counties)

Kornacke still thinks the odds have gotten long for Saccone as he would need to better today's %'s significantly in these absentee ballots

Also Josh Marshall: "Watching the number crunchers whose opinions I most respect, the consensus seems to be that Lamb wins, absent sole counting error as yet unknown."

And then this district goes away for 2018 midterms LOL

But it is true, despite what I posted earlier today, that a 20 pt swing is interesting, as are the collapse of the tax cut argument and the restoration of the culture-war argument for GOP
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:33 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:95 votes separate the candidates, Lamb in the lead. I don’t think this gets settled tonight.
If the final result is within 0.5%, there is a mandatory recount, so not likely tonight
Oops, I commented just as you answered.
but MSNBC is now taking back their statement on this: the PA law seems to apply to state-wide elections . . . leaving PA-18 ripe for lawsuits! LOL
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:40 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:95 votes separate the candidates, Lamb in the lead. I don’t think this gets settled tonight.
If the final result is within 0.5%, there is a mandatory recount, so not likely tonight
Oops, I commented just as you answered.
but MSNBC is now taking back their statement on this: the PA law seems to apply to state-wide elections . . . leaving PA-18 ripe for lawsuits! LOL
Yup, sorry I didn't catch that earlier, there is no mandatory recount provision for this type of election in PA... and to clarify I was refering to a Trump demand for a recount....

Meanwhile Saccone promises his HQ he's gonna "work late into the night"... WTF, watching TV
?

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:54 am

>> Trump demand

and probably insist that Keith Schiller and Corey Lewandowaki manage the recount
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:59 am

“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
Benjamin Ferencz in a letter to Telford Taylor, December 1951

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:49 am

Took a break a while back... nothing new other than Don Lemon blathering clichés.

Did have to laugh pretty much all night about Woof, et cetera, saying "unfortunately there's no exit poll data". Right, since they'all didn't spend the dough to get someone to collect it.And CNN's "Magic Wall" rivals the NYT's "Meters" for idiotic presentation. At times looked like a college TV news program from the early '70's.

So I go to sleep secure in the knowledge that the republic is still safely in the hands of a fat, greasy, short-fingered autocratic aspirant. Schlaf gut, y'all.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:05 am

Daily Kos is calling it, I think that’s a mistake:

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/1 ... =emaildkbn
“I noticed this morning that a group of our Landsberg friends have been given their freedom this morning. These include...Schubert, Jost and Nosske. Schubert confessed to...supervising the execution of about 800 Jews...(referring to the order to clean up Simferopol)...Schubert managed to kill all the Jews (by Christmas 1941). Nosske was the one the other defendants called the biggest bloodhound....
Noel, Noel, what the hell.”
Benjamin Ferencz in a letter to Telford Taylor, December 1951

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:10 am

Lamb is claiming victory.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:26 am

Daily Kos has called it for Lamb. MSNBC is still saying it's too close to call. Lordy, I hope this goes Lamb's way. It would be a thumb in the eye to the Koch Bros. and Trump and Ryan and McConnell. If Lamb loses by a whisker, Trump will be instantly tweeting that it was his charisma that made the difference.

It's been a helluva week for Trump otherwise, though, with an aide being frog-marched out of the White House, Tillerson leaving, and now big questions for his nominee to head the CIA about torture. I'm guessing he'll head to Mar-a-Lago a day or two early this week.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:28 pm

Balmoral95 wrote:Took a break a while back... nothing new other than Don Lemon blathering clichés.

Did have to laugh pretty much all night about Woof, et cetera, saying "unfortunately there's no exit poll data". Right, since they'all didn't spend the dough to get someone to collect it.And CNN's "Magic Wall" rivals the NYT's "Meters" for idiotic presentation.
The high point of the night - aside from an apparent thumping of the Trumpies - was when the meters disappeared. To put this into perspective for me, in that county in PA where I grew up and which is so overwhelmingly red/Trump, where no Dem would ever win, Trump won by 24%, just slightly more than in PA-18.
Balmoral95 wrote:At times looked like a college TV news program from the early '70's.
On MSNBC, Kornacke was talking at points with a marker in his mouth, doing sums in his head whilst holding his laptop and checking off precincts. It was rather funny.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:35 pm

This will work out so well for all concerned. #MAGA "California teacher accidentally discharges firearm during public safety lesson" Only one student injured so . . . carry on.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:43 pm

I heard last night on MSNBC that the minority population of PA-18 is around 7%. To put Lamb's apparent victory into still more perspective. #LambtheSham

If tariffs, tax cuts, MS-13, the Wall, Pocahontas and Low IQ Maxine, Fear of Pelosi, and Love of God & Country can't win in places like PA-18, the Republicans really do need to re-group for the fall. I am still leery of the "Blue Wave" thesis, but as the midterms develop, this is good for the Dems. (I think I am congenitally a pessimist, btw. This result challenges some of my assumptions - and for that I am a bit happy!)
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:55 pm

T May announces counter-measures in absence of Russian poisoning explanation: 1) Lavrov disinvited from UK visit and other contacts suspended, 2) high level British delegation to World Cup in Russia canceled, 3) Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons will be asked to verify UK claims and will take matter to UN, 4) 23 Russian intelligence personnel will be expelled from UK, 5) UK will act on Magnitsky Act type legislation and stricter controls on Russian entry to UK, and 6) unnamed other measures will be taken against Russia.

(In response, to jeers and catcalls, Corbyn for the opposition offers a rather Trumpian pov, questioning whether the government has provided poison samples to Russia and asking whether close dialogue with Russia is not important.)
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:19 pm

Explanations for Saccone debacle (HuffPo):
An anonymous Pennsylvania GOP strategist told The Washington Examiner they had a very specific complaint about Saccone: His moustache was disgusting.

″It’s a porn stache,” the strategist said.
Image

B-b-b-b-ut . . .

This guy is Mr Popular, with his own bobblehead now:

Image

I'm pretty sure that '70s porn dude is a thing these days - porn dude look should be a winner.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:30 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:Daily Kos is calling it, I think that’s a mistake:
I think it is best to claim victory and put Trumpies on the defensive. Make them overturn the result.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:54 pm

If only Trump had sent the SS to the voting booths.

And maybe the Secret Service, too, for assistance.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:09 pm

In late January Dave Weigel wrote a piece for WaPo explaining how the national Democrats, to the surprise of Republican strategists, had apparently written off PA-18 as out of reach:
Republicans are counting on a win in the district to send a strong message to donors, strategists and party faithful as the GOP looks to hold on to its majority: Republicans will raise the money and spend it aggressively.

Democratic outside groups, by contrast, view a victory in the district as a lower priority, given the large number of more vulnerable Republican incumbents they plan to target this fall in their quest to win the House. . . .

Republican strategists working on the race say they have been surprised by the lack of Democratic money on television. They started the year worried that Lamb would bring significant advantages, as a fresh face and able campaigner, that could set a negative tone for the November midterms.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:17 pm

Dotard has been awfully quiet this morning :)
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:41 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:If only Trump had sent the SS to the voting booths.

And maybe the Secret Service, too, for assistance.
I think they had them canvassing the area. That might not have sat well with the locals.
.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:57 pm

Paul Ryan has been rushed to an ER after he dizzied himself and took a plunge to the floor from all the spinning about PA-18 he's been doing this morning. Sad!
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:02 pm

LOL more Matt Heimbach (Traditionalist Workers Party) news:
The arrest followed a bizarre sequence of events stemming from an extramarital affair Heimbach was conducting, according to the police report.

The white nationalist leader is married to the step-daughter of Matt Parrott, the Traditionalist Worker Party’s chief spokesman. Per the police report, Heimbach attacked both Parrott and his own wife, Brooke Heimbach, after the pair confronted Matthew Heimbach about an affair he was carrying out with Matt Parrott’s wife, Jessica.

The group all live in the same trailer park compound in rural Paoli, Indiana, where the Traditionalist Worker Party is based. In statements to the police, all four listed their professions as “white nationalists.”
Yes, you read that right. Mr Heimbach was having an affair with his wife's step-mother - when confronted by his wife and her father, he strangled the father and went nuts on his wife. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker ... ery-affair
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm

On whether he's asking Dems in the Senate to oppose Pompeo the Hawk and Haspel the Torturer, Chuck Schumer said: "At this point, I am not."

Meanwhile, Rand Paul is saying, "My announcement today is that I will oppose both Pompeo's nomination and Haspel's nomination."
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:10 pm

and one more PA-18 post-mortem: 4 states which Trump won by +20 in '16 and which in a sense are analogues for the district are Indiana, Montana, Kansas and Louisiana.
"It was still at the stage of clubs and fists, hurrah, tala"

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ElectricMonk
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:18 pm

John McCain should absolutely be against Haspel - he would lose more of my respect if he votes for the confirmation - not that there is much respect left to lose.