Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by gorgeous » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:25 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Well Jeff: take heart. NO ONE can predict the future. If you can't "image" at least a tolerable future under Trump....then you need better drugs.

.........Now, I don't expect a better future. But I'm not so self obsessed to think and emote that the Three Weird Sisters are still rolling out their yarn.
--------yes people can predict the future...the probable future at that current moment....Vigo county and the remote viewers were accurate...they saw it...
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:19 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:Could it have been some kind of Russian vote rigging? I would not rule that out at this point as popular sentiment was overwhelmingly Pro-Clinton in the last days of the election. Something does not add up here.......
No.

This happened.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:28 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:How could we have been so wrong? Not just us but all the notable experts too? How could a sure thing become a failure?

I would welcome X, SM, DH and JeffK to Canada if you chose to emigrate btw.
Ironically my parents lived in Calgary from 1993-1996.

Canada is cold but, hey, you've got a lot of space. Good beer. Nice people. You gave us Rush.

Unfortunately I've gotta pass, I have a family and a career. I may reconsider but for now I'm stuck here.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:32 pm

Jeff_36: these voters have always been there. I grew up with them. They always vote for the racist and nationalist. They hate "Washington" by which they mean a government that protects equal opportunity for minorities. They buy anti government rhetoric about regulation because they frankly are too ignorant to understand what helps and what hurts them. So they voted for Trump.

But Clinton is like a Vegas "cooler" (which is where she may wind up). She depressed the Democratic vote, by all appearances. She could not even achieve the Democratic base. Democrats did not turn out for Clinton. She has always been a mess, from her health care {!#%@} up in the nineties. She ran as "not Trump" and offered no rallying cry for voters. And she represents the successful, well off elite just as Bill did in the '90s. Again, Trump appears to have received fewer votes than Romney in '12. That says a hell of a lot about a so called Democrat who basically got the same number of votes as {!#%@} Romney, which is maybe 6 million fewer votes than Obama! That is partly how it happened, not Russia.

(I've got family in Sweden. My wife said this morning she wasn't joking about her search for Sweden immigration last night.)
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Gord » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:33 pm

Calgary is basically Canada's Texas. There was a party in Alberta that wanted to secede from Canada and join the States -- I don't know if they're still a thing, but I'll think of Alberta that way now and forevermore. ;)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:54 pm

Balsamo and I will disagree on this: IMO the racist nationalist vote, which is not a new phenomenon and is always there in US politics, prevailed because the Democrats failed to turn their voters out in support of the elitist wing of the party's leadership.

The pitchfork crowd isn't a totally dumb metaphor - just look at how urban and rural counties went - the red counties turned deep red, the blue cities stayed deep blue but didn't bother voting as much as they did in '08 and '12. So if Trump didn't quite match Romney's vote, Clinton basically shredded Obama's.

But Balsamo and I will likely agree on this: it will be wonderful to see the backsides of the Clintons for the last time although it should have happened a long time ago.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:04 pm

NBC is reporting that third party vote likely cost Clinton both Florida and Pennsylvania.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:08 pm

That's what I was thinking. Hope Paul is happy now...


So, what's the process for the repugnicans to eventually oust and replace their own monster in favor for something a little more palatable? :-P
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by NathanC » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:12 pm

Roberto Muehlenkamp weighs in.
holocaustcontroversies.blogspot.com/2016/11/so-wheres-world-headed-now.html?m=1
In an earlier blog, I had mentioned that the only man-made horror that could equal or surpass the Black Death in terms of proportional continent-wide or worldwide mortality is one that, although it remains possible to this day, never happened and will hopefully never happen – a global thermonuclear war.

Now I'm concerned that, with an aggressive Russia, an expanding China, and an unpredictable cretin in the White House, the world may soon be headed in that direction.

I hope I’m wrong.
Well, Trump wants to restore relations with Putin. As Balsamo said, that's a good thing. Trump did say, however that he wants to beef up the US military presence in Southeast Asia, so...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:18 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:That's what I was thinking. Hope Paul is happy now...


So, what's the process for the repugnicans to eventually oust and replace their own monster in favor for something a little more palatable? :-P
They will embrace him for now.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:21 pm

NathanC wrote:Roberto Muehlenkamp weighs in.
holocaustcontroversies.blogspot.com/2016/11/so-wheres-world-headed-now.html?m=1
In an earlier blog, I had mentioned that the only man-made horror that could equal or surpass the Black Death in terms of proportional continent-wide or worldwide mortality is one that, although it remains possible to this day, never happened and will hopefully never happen – a global thermonuclear war.

Now I'm concerned that, with an aggressive Russia, an expanding China, and an unpredictable cretin in the White House, the world may soon be headed in that direction.

I hope I’m wrong.
Well, Trump wants to restore relations with Putin. As Balsamo said, that's a good thing. Trump did say, however that he wants to beef up the US military presence in Southeast Asia, so...
Well with Russia it depends on what terms I think. The unpredictability factor in a world that is not all that stable is yuuuuge. On that I share Roberto's concern. I think climate issues are the other disaster for the whole world. Although Clinton wouldn't have been so good on that either.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:26 pm

Quick analysis of exit poll data:
In the end, according to exit polls, the election result seems to have been more about the clear backing of America’s white and wealthy voters for Donald Trump – including white graduates, and white female voters.

Far from being purely a revolt by poorer whites left behind by globalisation, who did indeed turn out in greater numbers for the Republican candidate than in 2012, Trump’s victory also relied on the support of the middle-class, the better-educated and the well-off.

Of the one in three Americans who earn less than $50,000 a year, a majority voted for Clinton. A majority of those who earn more backed Trump.

Clinton’s lead among non-white voters was substantial, but not enough to make up the difference. It was also less than many anticipated – and less than Barack Obama’s four years previously.
And, one more time, Trump did 2 pts better than Romney with Latinos.

NBC's exit polling showed "wants a strong leader" as one of strongest desires of voters.

Clinton was a {!#%@} disaster.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:33 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:NBC is reporting that third party vote likely cost Clinton both Florida and Pennsylvania.
I saw that, the numbers that voted third party were huge. I think a lot of those voters are feeling buyer's remorse today.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:42 pm

As if they didn't know what they were doing. They were warned time and again - and by Al Gore no less. Arrogant, selfish fools who have made themselves and their precious consciences feel good through a disastrous act of meaningless but indulgent self expression!

The travesty of Bill Weld on tv winking that people shouldn't let Trump win - but staying on the ticket. {!#%@}. He always struck me as the family idiot.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Ian Hazard » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:48 pm

Image
President Trump!


The people have spoken. There is now a light at the end of the tunnel for our country. Donald Trump will cure the moral cancer which has been destroying our nation for the past 70 years. Donald Trump will make America great again.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:55 pm

Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:56 pm

Oh, goody. Just what I thought, Trump's win brought out the chimps and sock puppets.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:57 pm

Most voters made up their minds before Pussygate and Comey I and II.

Silver lining: David Duke got 3% of the vote in LA senate race. The people like some racists better than others it seems. There will be a runoff between the top two vote getters in December.

On the other hand Pence is the {!#%@} VP? Jesus wept.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:59 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote:From here on out, Republicans have no one but themselves to blame.
I am old enough to recall '72. There was a bumper sticker after that disastrous election that you'd see on cars driven by people with shaggy hair: "Don't blame me, I'm from Massachusetts." I can see one for '16: "Don't blame me, I voted for Bernie." Many, many Democrats tried to get the party to listen - do not nominate this elitist hawk - 45% in the primaries tried to tell the party. When the party didn't listen, many of us dutifully held our noses and voted against Trump. But the Democrats, too, have no one to blame but themselves.
What I mean is that, with total legislative (and possibly soon Judicative) control, Republicans have the power to implement all the policies they claim will make America great again.
If they won't work, it will not be the Democrats fault.
Actually, the economy is about to implode thanks to Fed policy...0% interest that boosted the stock market to unrealistic bubble-like levels. It has to crash eventually, and when it does the Republicans will be blamed because they are now in power. But it took many years to build the bomb, and both parties helped build it.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:13 pm

I will not be celebrating a Trump win, but a Hillary loss? I'll drink to that, and I haven't had a drink in 4 years!

It was also nice to see all the pollsters crash and burn (except LA Times/USC) The know-it-alls don't know {!#%@}.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:15 pm

Paul Anthony wrote:I will not be celebrating a Trump win, but a Hillary loss? I'll drink to that, and I haven't had a drink in 4 years!

It was also nice to see all the pollsters crash and burn (except LA Times/USC) The know-it-alls don't know {!#%@}.

We all lost.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:18 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Paul Anthony wrote:I will not be celebrating a Trump win, but a Hillary loss? I'll drink to that, and I haven't had a drink in 4 years!

It was also nice to see all the pollsters crash and burn (except LA Times/USC) The know-it-alls don't know {!#%@}.

We all lost.
Well, I did, I voted for Gary Johnson.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:55 pm

Maybe the Clintons better think about offshoring that Foundation of theirs, quickly?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:57 pm

Paul Anthony wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Paul Anthony wrote:I will not be celebrating a Trump win, but a Hillary loss? I'll drink to that, and I haven't had a drink in 4 years!

It was also nice to see all the pollsters crash and burn (except LA Times/USC) The know-it-alls don't know {!#%@}.

We all lost.
Well, I did, I voted for Gary Johnson.
Good for you. It's entirely possible your wasted vote, along with others, gave us the Trump.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:57 pm

Balsamo wrote:Bet you'll start seeing articles and speeches on Revolutionary Vote... ;)
I will probably read them but likely too stick with my own assessment of the country.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:59 pm

Paul Anthony wrote:Well, I did, I voted for Gary Johnson.
That's what you think.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Ian Hazard » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:05 pm

Telling it like it is. An article from the British BBC news site Jeff 1970 and a few other disgruntled liberals posting here would do well to read:
Donald Trump, in his uncharacteristically gracious victory speech, said that "the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer". Forgotten? They weren't forgotten. They were dismissed, disregarded, and despised by America's elites, all of whom got their comeuppance in Trump's staggering victory.

Nobody saw it coming. I didn't, and as a conservative who lives in deep red America, I don't even have the excuse of being a coastal urbanite cut off from the wilds of Trumpistan.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37924687

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:05 pm

Margin of Trump victory:

WI - 27,000
Johnson - 108,000

MI - 17,000
Johnson - 173,000

PA - 68,000
Johnson - 145,000

FL - 120,000
Johnson - 205,000

Popular vote vs ’12
Trump 59.3m (Romney 60.9m)
Clinton 59.5m (Obama 65.9m)

The miserable underperformance of the chosen one sticks out like a sore thumb. I’ve got me a case of Clinton derangement syndrome this morning. It’ll pass. But those two have been just ruinous.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:07 pm

Ian Hazard wrote:Telling it like it is. An article from the British BBC news site Jeff 1970 and a few other disgruntled liberals posting here would do well to read:
Donald Trump, in his uncharacteristically gracious victory speech, said that "the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer". Forgotten? They weren't forgotten. They were dismissed, disregarded, and despised by America's elites, all of whom got their comeuppance in Trump's staggering victory.

Nobody saw it coming. I didn't, and as a conservative who lives in deep red America, I don't even have the excuse of being a coastal urbanite cut off from the wilds of Trumpistan.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37924687
He's a piece of {!#%@} whose bigotry and ignorance were constants throughout the campaign. A victory speech doesn't make up for that. We will be back at this in 4 years, when Trump has pissed all over his forgotten men and women. Believe me.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:11 pm

Omarosa, gracious as always:
“It’s so great our enemies are making themselves clear so that when we get in to the White House, we know where we stand. . . . I would never judge anybody for exercising their right to and the freedom to choose who they want. But let me just tell you, Mr. Trump has a long memory and we’re keeping a list.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:13 pm

Why did most of the polls get it wrong? Because the media decided the election would be about personalities, not issues. But people were concerned with issues, and were willing to ignore personalities.

The pollsters, had they paid attention to their own polls, would have known that.

62% of voters said a candidate’s specific policy proposals are more important than their character.

In a survey released just last week, voters overwhelmingly favor changes in the health care law, with more voters than ever calling for its outright repeal.

Clinton was a champion of amnesty and allowing even more illegal immigrants into the country, even though the majority of voters for years have said they want more secure borders and more deportations.

Only last month, 63% of voters said the U.S. economy is unfair to the middle class, a view most voters have held in surveys for the past several years. Yet Clinton’s plans were a continuation of current economic policies.

Most voters have long called for lower taxes and less government; Clinton proposed increasing both. Trump wants to cut taxes and government regulation.

Voters are very skeptical, notably of the new Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that Clinton helped negotiate. She said in recent months that she’s against it, but her own running mate, Tim Kaine, was caught telling TPP supporters privately she would reverse course as soon as she was elected.

Clinton wouldn’t use the phrase “radical Islamic terrorism” for fear of offending Muslims, but most voters continue to believe we’re at war with it. Meanwhile, confidence at home about America’s safety from terrorism remains near all-time lows.

Trump called for law and order; Clinton called for healing and rooting out racist police officers. When cities erupted in violence over police shootings, voters weren’t all that sympathetic: They thought Clinton was on the side of the protestors, while Trump was on the side of the police. But only 14% of Americans think most deaths that involve the police are the fault of the policeman. More than ever (72%) rate the performance of the police in the area where they live as good or excellent.

When it comes to most major issues, voters expected Clinton to continue President Obama's policies and Trump to change them, for better or worse.

And yet, the pollsters put more weight toward personality than issues. Of course they did. It's all the media talked about.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:14 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Could it have been some kind of Russian vote rigging? I would not rule that out at this point as popular sentiment was overwhelmingly Pro-Clinton in the last days of the election. Something does not add up here.......
No.

This happened.
Jeff_36, Josh Marhsall at TPM agrees with you in a way:
I find it very hard to get past the apparent fact that a major part of this campaign was driven by a subversion and disruption campaign by a foreign hostile power. That is a completely shocking fact. That's shocking to me as a Democrat but far more as an American. That doesn't end with this one campaign.
Ok, back to the history of other times . . .
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:26 pm

Ian Hazard wrote:Telling it like it is. An article from the British BBC news site Jeff 1970 and a few other disgruntled liberals posting here would do well to read:
Donald Trump, in his uncharacteristically gracious victory speech, said that "the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer". Forgotten? They weren't forgotten. They were dismissed, disregarded, and despised by America's elites, all of whom got their comeuppance in Trump's staggering victory.

Nobody saw it coming. I didn't, and as a conservative who lives in deep red America, I don't even have the excuse of being a coastal urbanite cut off from the wilds of Trumpistan.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37924687
Do you think the orange pumpkin will make all of your denier/nationalist dreams come through, chimp?

I think in two years Trump mismanagement will cause a flip in both houses back to a democratic majority. In four years he will leave the White House with all those people who voted for him thinking, "WTF was I smoking?"

That is what I think will happen.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:09 pm

Thom Hartman just made an excellent rant about how and why Hillary lost: because her campaign chose to be "anti-Trump" instead of focusing on the change agent that she would be. It was "clear" for all to see: Trump blew through 16 other Republican Status Quo candidates by saying he was the Change Candidate. Bernie came very close to winning by the same message..... we'll never know if he could have won without the rigged system being "fixed" for Hillary.

Hillary included the change message but did not emphasize it. Could it have been that simple a "campaign focus" failure? I think so. You don't get people to get out and vote "against" anyone. You have to be "for" issues. Ha, ha..........even if its a lie that Hillary was a change agent.... its a lie that could have been forcefully presented.

Oh.... to be a skillful politician: always for hope and change. All the Big Tyrants are.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:45 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:NBC is reporting that third party vote likely cost Clinton both Florida and Pennsylvania.
Johnson the airheaded {!#%@}-up. And not just him, but ignorant, selfish, deluded millennials who wrote in Bernie Sanders or Ken Bone or Haramabe the dead Gorilla just to be "ironic." I hope they grow up to be bitter and jaded over their roles in this upheaval. I hate millennials with a passion and I can say that because I am one.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:47 pm

Johnson: not just an airhead. Really in favor of the worst of Libertarian Policies that would screw society worse than Trump..... but no coverage of his candidacy. Ha, ha........talk about your pros and cons.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:48 pm

Ian Hazard wrote:disgruntled liberals ]
I am a Conservative by Canadian standards and would be a Blue Dog Democrat in the United States. Don't make assumptions.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:52 pm

Ian Hazard wrote:Donald Trump will cure the moral cancer which has been destroying our nation for the past 70 years. Donald Trump will make America great again.
70? You mean when the US took a heroic stand against Nazism and then Communism? Omaha Beach? The Battle of the Bulge? Aachen? The Hurtigan Forrest? The Battle of Munich? the Liberation of the Camps? The Marshall Plan? the Berlin Airlift? Incheon? Radio Free Europe? That is the start of "moral cancer" for you? Get the {!#%@} out of here you are the most un-American puke I have ever met in my life. Go get drunk in Caracas or something.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:57 pm

Where I live: Clinton 84%

ROFLMAO
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:00 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:NBC is reporting that third party vote likely cost Clinton both Florida and Pennsylvania.
Johnson the airheaded {!#%@}-up. And not just him, but ignorant, selfish, deluded millennials who wrote in Bernie Sanders or Ken Bone or Haramabe the dead Gorilla just to be "ironic." I hope they grow up to be bitter and jaded over their roles in this upheaval. I hate millennials with a passion and I can say that because I am one.
Our millennial election gathering was OTOH very serious. Bad vibes from outset, no one thought Clinton had the win easily, although everyone except me felt she'd win. I called early nearly zero path for Clinton - I was wrong but went with my gut - and everyone was irked with me, then just deflated. Not a single vote for Trump, Johnson, Stein or other in the group. And everyone voted. The chili was delicious and lots was left over as people lost their appetites.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .