Non violence is better

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Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun May 06, 2018 11:18 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... d03c2dd064

A Washington Post article on the difference between violent and non violent uprisings.

Non violent methods have proven, using factual analysis, to be much better than armed uprising. If only 3.5% of a population is active in a non violent campaign , they generally succeed in some, if not all their aims. Those who take up arms against tyranny generally make things worse.

Please read the reference before replying.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 07, 2018 12:17 am

Lance Kennedy wrote: Please read the reference before replying.
Whats up Lance? Getting testy right from the start?? Need a vacation???

But in the spirit you offer, let me provide you with an excellent response that does NOT require reading your link at all.

Which is your/our prior conversations right on point. Seems to me, you should have pinned your reference here or pointed out what in the link supplements what has already been said? Please review your prior link before replying.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon May 07, 2018 2:54 am

I was aware of that, Bobbo. But I liked the Washington Post article, and thought it was worth posting. I hope some people at least will actually read it.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 07, 2018 2:56 am

What does it add to what was said in the prior thread?
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon May 07, 2018 3:48 am

It's a bit of circular reasoning, isn't it?
Non-violent uprisings require more broad, active support than violent ones. And the more people are demanding regime change, the higher the chances of it happening. Violence doesn't really enter into the actual equation.
I don't see how a widespread support for a revolution that is comfortable with violence would be less successful than an entirely peaceful one with the same percentage of the population.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon May 07, 2018 3:55 am

EM

Not circular reasoning, but empirical reality.

Frankly, what you or I, or anyone, thinks is logical does not matter a damn. It is what is real that counts. Over the last 100 years or so, many rebellions have occurred , but the non violent ones were much more successful. If you cannot see why, so what ? It is real.

Think Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King, Tunisia and Myanmar. Then compare these to the places rebellions took place that were violent, like Syria, Gaza, and much of Africa. Non violence achieves its goals. Violence tends to make things much worse.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon May 07, 2018 5:55 am

Lance, you completely miss the point in your quest to be always right.

it can be empirically right, but that doesn't make it an airtight correlation. History is way too messy for that.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 07, 2018 6:22 am

EM---I thought that was a good comment re % of people supporting the revolution.......but.......correlations are correlations. If by airtight you mean 1.0 then no one has said that. If you mean something less than 1.0: air leakage is assumed and the correlation still stands?

Seems to me if some groups is thinking about armed revolution, they probably ought to think about why they can't get it done peacefully and recognize they will probably fail and even if the cause eventually wins.......they won't?

whats called for is some regression analysis to tease out the more relevant issues that attach to success? My gut says that some situations allow for peaceful change and others don't and the same for armed revolution. Knowing when and where what works is kinda important rather than some general correlation that may not apply to the specifics at hand.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by TJrandom » Mon May 07, 2018 8:18 am

Since her data isn`t provided, one wonders how the protests against the Vietnam war was rated – violent or not/successful or not.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon May 07, 2018 8:31 am

I would suggest the Viet Nam protests were mostly non violent and reasonably successful, since the American government pulled out (eventually ), and did not apply the worst means available to it. Not 100% successful, of course, but at least the protesters blunted some of the venom.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by TJrandom » Mon May 07, 2018 9:01 am

Perhaps from the side of the US - but for the North Vietnamese - surely violence succeeded. Not so for the South Vietnamese.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by JO 753 » Mon May 07, 2018 1:55 pm

Watched her TED lecture. Not convinst.

I think its dependent on the situation wether it requirez violens or not and that the sekses iz dependent on the competens & injinuity uv the opozing forsez. Also luck.

A revolution thats just a bunch uv nasty guyz running around shooting, bomming and beheding iznt going to do much beyond making everybody mad at them.

A revolution thats just a bunch uv lazy guyz prezenting lojikal arguments gets ignored.

At least sum timez it takes both.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Mon May 07, 2018 2:18 pm

Velvet Revolution - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution
The Velvet Revolution (Czech: sametová revoluce) or Gentle Revolution (Slovak: nežná revolúcia) was a non-violent transition of power in what was then Czechoslovakia, occurring from 17 November to 29 December 1989.
Date‎: ‎17 November 1989–29 December 1989; ... Participants‎: ‎Czechs and Slovaks
Location‎: ‎Czechoslovakia
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon May 07, 2018 7:04 pm

Thanks Gawd. Good example.

To TJ.

North Vietnam was involved in a war, not a peaceful non violent rebellion. Not an applicable example.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by TJrandom » Mon May 07, 2018 8:52 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Thanks Gawd. Good example.

To TJ.

North Vietnam was involved in a war, not a peaceful non violent rebellion. Not an applicable example.
Yes I know that - but the article compared results from peaceful vs armed action. The N Vietnamese took up arms and were successful where peaceful action most probably would not have worked for them. The article didn`t mention – but for each conflict there were `winners and losers` and even third parties – so I do wonder how each was rated. In the case of Vietnam, surely they cancelled out?

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon May 07, 2018 11:16 pm

The US Civil War. As a counterfactual, I've always wondered how long slavery would have lasted in the USA if the South had not seceded and gone to war over it. "Probably" would have died eventually, and "fairly" soon what with increased mechanization coming on. Doubt it would continue past the desire for cheap cotton? But (too many) people who want to make money/have an advantage over others: are....... evil.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue May 08, 2018 4:41 am

TJ

The principle of successful non violent action applies to rebellion against a tyrant. A war of conquest is different. Apples and oranges.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by ElectricMonk » Tue May 08, 2018 4:50 am

So under very specific circumstances the premise holds?
Not so useful an insight.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue May 08, 2018 4:57 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:TJ

The principle of successful non violent action applies to rebellion against a tyrant. A war of conquest is different. Apples and oranges.
Is that true? Ganghi went up against a "tyrant?" MLK went up against a tryrant? Who else is famous successful non-violent resistance? The Jews against Hitler? The Ukranians against Stalin? The peasants against Mao??? The farmers against Asad?

Looks to me that non-violence ONLY works against NON-tyrants......eg: democractic rule of law societies?

It depends..............
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by TJrandom » Tue May 08, 2018 4:58 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:TJ

The principle of successful non violent action applies to rebellion against a tyrant. A war of conquest is different. Apples and oranges.
Vietnam was hardly a war of conquest, but I do accept your point.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue May 08, 2018 5:05 am

On point.....re Vietnam.....its still very vivid in my memory the protest of the peaceful Buddhists who set themselves on fire. Non violent....but more an oddity than any movement?
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by JO 753 » Tue May 08, 2018 1:29 pm

Setting yourself on fire iz nonviolent?

Not exactly terrorists bekuz they werent burning anybody else. How about ... horrorists!
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue May 08, 2018 8:20 pm

Bobbo

Tyranny can be other than an individual. Martin Luther King fought against the tyranny of legal racial discrimination. He was non violent, and he won. He paid a terrible price, of course, but he achieved the goals he set out to achieve.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by OlegTheBatty » Tue May 08, 2018 10:15 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Bobbo

Tyranny can be other than an individual. Martin Luther King fought against the tyranny of legal racial discrimination. He was non violent, and he won. He paid a terrible price, of course, but he achieved the goals he set out to achieve.
There were violent factions with the same goal, such as the Black Panthers. Neither they nor MLK held any seats of power. How can you determine which was more successful?

It is at least as likely that MLK was as successful as he was in part because of the work of the BP. There are many similar examples. The peaceniks get the credit, the insurgents get vilified. The insurgents serve the purpose of holding the attention of the powerful while the peaceniks form the political alliances necessary for making a regime change.

Just because the insurgents do not form the new government does not mean they failed.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue May 08, 2018 11:05 pm

Oleg

These are not my conclusions. They are the conclusions of academics who have done the factual research. Not just one, either. There are several published studies with the same general conclusion.

You can quibble about what might be with respect to any single non violent campaign, but there are too many examples.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 09, 2018 1:35 am

Lance Kennedy wrote: They are the conclusions of academics who have done the factual research. Not just one, either.
Could be.............but I doubt it. Too much work I know....but I'd like to see ANY discussion on how they dealt with the influences of ALL the other factors in play to finally hang the Peaceful Protest label on the complex mix of things. If you do....it would be great to see the analysis of how the actions of the Black Panthers played for and against MLK.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed May 09, 2018 2:01 am

Bobbo

I think the Black Panthers are an irrelevancy here. I have certainly never seen any report suggesting that they had any influence on civil rights for people of African descent. My own opinion is that they were probably a negative influence, simply because governments, being made up of people with normal human weaknesses, resist being pushed into anything. I recall the statements made by the Japanese government about Greenpeace and its anti-whaling campaign, in which they said they would continue to kill whales as long as those people tried to stop them. The American government would be no different, pushing back against those who tried to pressure them.

Not that this matters. There are enough examples even without King, to draw a general conclusion.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 09, 2018 2:50 am

Lance: I take your point....and there was some black activist group that got bombed/burned out by the police in Philadelphia I think.....I think they were Black Panthers or similar offshoot. BUT...I think the BP's influence would not be fear of "their" actions but a larger recognition that race relations needed to be fixed or things (general violence) really could get out of hand. The BP's also provided "protection" at various events so that black leaders advocating for peaceful means could feel safe. Lots of ways people and ideas interact.

Human interactions are not science......the thread on Pathological Science applies to the Social Sciences IN SPADES (sic). My gut tells me that the "first look" at social movements may support the conclusion that peaceful is more successful.........but.......the first look is just too simple and the subject just might be too complex for such a blanket statement. I do think you have to "set the stage" by listing the number of variables that need to be within some range for whatever outcome you desire to be achieved.

Ha, ha..........Kent State comes to mind. Peaceful white college kiddies protesting and they get shot/murdered by the National Guard. Protests stop. .......... gotta choose your battles.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed May 09, 2018 5:17 am

Nothing is perfect. But there is little doubt that peaceful protest achieves more goals and does less harm than violent rebellion.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 09, 2018 6:10 am

Well..........now that you have said it the third time..........when would you recommend the violent approach?
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed May 09, 2018 7:30 am

Rarely.

There are a few occasions when there is no alternative.
A nation can justify violent action when it is attacked. The other time is when an ally is attacked. Otherwise, it is really, really difficult to justify.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed May 09, 2018 8:40 am

Establishment White US was way more scared of the Black Panthers than of MLK. One reason why MLK got support from mainstream politics was because they believed he could keep violent factions in check.
The same was true for Ghandi, Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and Basque National Party: their power was in significant part due to the fact that they had other option than peaceful protest.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed May 09, 2018 12:59 pm

Just watching commentary on Democracy Now from last week about the passing of black liberation theologian (founder?) Reverand Dr James Cone " Oppressors never take kindly to those who contest their authority.......Black theology came out of... slavery, segregation and lynching and not White American & European theology. I learned my theology from the Civil Rights Movement and the Black Power Movement...from MLK and Malcolm X."

its always a mix of things............
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by JO 753 » Wed May 09, 2018 3:59 pm

The Nooalf Revolution iz a good counter example.

I havent so much az thrown a brick thru a window. Try to find any mention uv Nooalf in the newz.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by TJrandom » Wed May 09, 2018 6:33 pm

So far the left has not taken up arms against the radical right, and Fox & Friends continues to suppress the majority of Americans with impunity. This one will probably end relatively peacefully, but certainly not successfully, given the damage that is being done every day the scoundrels remain in power.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed May 09, 2018 8:10 pm

A lot of silly quibbling here. Truth is that the academic studies, which quantified results, show that non violence is much more successful.

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 09, 2018 8:12 pm

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Re: Non violence is better

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed May 09, 2018 8:17 pm

TJrandom wrote:So far the left has not taken up arms against the radical right, and Fox & Friends continues to suppress the majority of Americans with impunity. This one will probably end relatively peacefully, but certainly not successfully, given the damage that is being done every day the scoundrels remain in power.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by OlegTheBatty » Wed May 09, 2018 9:27 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Establishment White US was way more scared of the Black Panthers than of MLK. One reason why MLK got support from mainstream politics was because they believed he could keep violent factions in check.
The same was true for Ghandi, Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and Basque National Party: their power was in significant part due to the fact that they had other option than peaceful protest.
That's just it. There are always factions engaging in varying degrees of violence or politics-as-usual. Sometimes they get along, sometimes not, but ususally their ultimate goals are compatible with the possible exceptin of who gets to be in charge post revolution. Just because the group with the best political strategies usually takes the prize doesn't mean the more violent groups failed, only that they are not running the show.

The violence usually stops after regime restructuring. Why would it if the violent groups hadn't gotten the core of what they wanted? When the new bosses turn out to be tyrants as well, the violence resumes.
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Re: Non violence is better

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu May 10, 2018 12:09 am

Oleg

There are dozens of examples of violent rebellion. Very few succeed. But most manage to cause incredible harm, economic damage, and mega deaths. The Black Panthers were no different. Their influence probably slowed the human rights for African Americans. I say this because that is what violent groups normally do.

There are many violent groups supposedly fighting for freedom in African nations, which have been active for decades, and merely cause horrible atrocities.

Read the scrambled one's reference. Non violent rebellions are startlingly more successful than their violent cousins.