Where are the aliens?

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Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:27 pm

I happened across one of those things the other day that at first is just interesting, then it sticks with you. Some famous physics guy once asked this question. He realized that if the calculations of the possibility of life as intelligent as humans evolving were correct, there should be evidence of them. Unless we are wrong about what it will take to travel to other stars, given a mere 10 million years, we should be able to pretty well spread out over this galaxy. A lot of evolving can take place in 10 million years, so unless we are the first intelligent species in this galaxy, we should see a galaxy with a variety of species all from a common ancestor.

But we don't. So, do they see us and do they have a Star Trek-ess Prime Directive of non-intervention? Have all civilizations that made it as far as we have vanished? Do they evolve to a more Zen-like state where exploration and expansion are not important? Or is the math wrong?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:55 pm

I'm going for the safe option, Lausten. We have evidence that we exist. We have no evidence at all that anyone else is out there. Ergo, there is only us, at least locally. When we finally run into them, I'll change my mind - but I suspect that if that ever occurs, I will be long gone.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:56 pm

Finding others similar to us? The first two ships collided meeting in the middle. So... :-P
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:43 pm

They don't have to be similar to us, other than in their ability to manipulate their environment enough to be able to travel in space. Even if we can't break the light speed limit, we could create ships designed span a generation or two, making travel to other stars possible. We can assume that any creature with consciousness is going to be aware of the limitation of time and resources of a single planet. We have at least sent one little record of our existence which is just leaving the solar system. There has to be an error in calculating the odds of there being another intelligent species or the ability to travel to other stars, but which one is wrong?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:57 pm

Two hundred years ago, no extraterrestrial civilation could have detected our presence even with the technology we have now. Now, even with the technology we have, we could not possibly detect any civilisation at the stage we were two hundred years ago. Were we NOT a civilisation (or multiple thereof) 200 years ago? We have not managed to develop technology which would take us to the stars and therefore we have no evidence that such a thing is even possible. We simply don't know.

If we do not assume that there are super-technological civilisations out there (and I see no reason to make the assumption) those aliens could be just about everywhere.

OK - I'm going for it ... and probably are.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by scrmbldggs » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:13 pm

I'd agree. One encounters arsenic biased life forms everywhere.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:25 pm

I appreciate the concept of an arsenic bias. :lol: :lol: :D

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:27 pm

Fermi's Paradox was not formulated by an astronomer. It's basically "Hey, we're special! Why don't the aliens admit this!" The idea that the only other intelligent species in the universe at this time might be 10 billion light years away doesn't seem to have occurred to him.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by gorgeous » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:46 pm

the govt has been in contact with them for decades...wake up...
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:47 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Fermi's Paradox was not formulated by an astronomer. It's basically "Hey, we're special! Why don't the aliens admit this!" The idea that the only other intelligent species in the universe at this time might be 10 billion light years away doesn't seem to have occurred to him.


Yeah.

There are at least three, and maybe eight million, reasons why alien civilisations would not be detectable. This has been one of them.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:19 pm

Poodle wrote:

(**Very old reference** to confuse gorgeous)

Next you'll try to get water wet.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:34 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Fermi's Paradox was not formulated by an astronomer. It's basically "Hey, we're special! Why don't the aliens admit this!" The idea that the only other intelligent species in the universe at this time might be 10 billion light years away doesn't seem to have occurred to him.

The Milky Way galaxy is only 100,000 light years across. I don't we need to look outside this galaxy for the possibility of just one other intelligent species. I say "only" realizing that's a lot, but, like evolution, we now know that there has been a lot of time for things to happen. Unless like Poodle seems to be implying, it actually isn't possible to get to another star.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by gorgeous » Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:05 am

obe travelers at the Monroe Institute used to be sent to the moon when out of body...they had to stop sending people there because they just found it barren and boring...the Monroe Institutel also sent people from NASA and others out of body out of our solar system , too.....
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gord » Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:49 am

gorgeous wrote:obe travelers at the Monroe Institute used to be sent to the moon when out of body...they had to stop sending people there because they just found it barren and boring...the Monroe Institutel also sent people from NASA and others out of body out of our solar system , too.....

Which one found you?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by TJrandom » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:48 am

We have a whole lot of aliens here, and in fact they are required by law to carry an identification card that lists all sorts of information - including where they are from. It isn`t my business to be asking them - but some are quite obviously from far far away....

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:49 am

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Fermi's Paradox was not formulated by an astronomer. It's basically "Hey, we're special! Why don't the aliens admit this!" The idea that the only other intelligent species in the universe at this time might be 10 billion light years away doesn't seem to have occurred to him.

The Milky Way galaxy is only 100,000 light years across. I don't we need to look outside this galaxy for the possibility of just one other intelligent species. I say "only" realizing that's a lot, but, like evolution, we now know that there has been a lot of time for things to happen. Unless like Poodle seems to be implying, it actually isn't possible to get to another star.

I don't we need to find another intelligent species inside the Milky Way because...

A species has to be alive right now, at the right age in its life to want to travel in space, has to have the ability to travel in space, has to be able to circumvent the laws of physics as we know them, has to be near enough to actually get here, and has to think that Earth is worth visiting (how do they know we're here?) Our sphere of signals is less than two hundred light across. Anything outside that sphere would know we were even here.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:36 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Fermi's Paradox was not formulated by an astronomer. It's basically "Hey, we're special! Why don't the aliens admit this!" The idea that the only other intelligent species in the universe at this time might be 10 billion light years away doesn't seem to have occurred to him.

The Milky Way galaxy is only 100,000 light years across. I don't we need to look outside this galaxy for the possibility of just one other intelligent species. I say "only" realizing that's a lot, but, like evolution, we now know that there has been a lot of time for things to happen. Unless like Poodle seems to be implying, it actually isn't possible to get to another star.

I don't we need to find another intelligent species inside the Milky Way because...

A species has to be alive right now, at the right age in its life to want to travel in space, has to have the ability to travel in space, has to be able to circumvent the laws of physics as we know them, has to be near enough to actually get here, and has to think that Earth is worth visiting (how do they know we're here?) Our sphere of signals is less than two hundred light across. Anything outside that sphere would know we were even here.

In less than 100 years we've gone from not knowing there are other galaxies to mapping exoplanets. Odds are very good we are or were on someone else's map. Getting here does not require light speed. We are planning a trip to Mars, the issue is fueling a trip to a farther location. Once you bridge that, then you figure how to manufacture what you need from that base and within a few 100 thousand years, your growth is exponential.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:56 pm

Lausten wrote: Odds are very good we are or were on someone else's map.

Show me how you got "very good".
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:50 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote: Odds are very good we are or were on someone else's map.

Show me how you got "very good".

I'm sure you're aware of the many attempts to plug numbers into the Drake equation. They are all of course pure speculation. But we know there is at least one example. I would rather hear how you arrive at the likelihood that our one example is the only one.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by psychiatry is a scam » Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:32 pm

Fermi paradox - wiki

do not see any mention of hate and evil - let say China decides to build something to colonize space . all kinds of groups will want to destroy their attempt . even if they or someone succeeded the craft itself would have the same issues .
fact that nothing has achieved what Fermi suggested - proves that evil always wins :burn:

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:20 pm

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote: Odds are very good we are or were on someone else's map.

Show me how you got "very good".

I'm sure you're aware of the many attempts to plug numbers into the Drake equation. They are all of course pure speculation. But we know there is at least one example. I would rather hear how you arrive at the likelihood that our one example is the only one.

I don't know. You don't know. You made a positive statement. You admit you can't back it up. /closed
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by psychiatry is a scam » Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:33 pm

Lausten wrote:I happened across one of those things the other day that at first is just interesting, then it sticks with you. Some famous physics guy once asked this question. He realized that if the calculations of the possibility of life as intelligent as humans evolving were correct, there should be evidence of them. Unless we are wrong about what it will take to travel to other stars, given a mere 10 million years, we should be able to pretty well spread out over this galaxy. A lot of evolving can take place in 10 million years, so unless we are the first intelligent species in this galaxy, we should see a galaxy with a variety of species all from a common ancestor.

But we don't. So, do they see us and do they have a Star Trek-ess Prime Directive of non-intervention? Have all civilizations that made it as far as we have vanished? Do they evolve to a more Zen-like state where exploration and expansion are not important? Or is the math wrong?


Fermi paradox - wiki

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:00 pm

Early signs that the thread wasn't read include...
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:31 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote:I don't know. You don't know. You made a positive statement. You admit you can't back it up. /closed

Thanks captain buzz kill. Maybe you don't understand the word "paradox". The positive statement has been out there for a long time that there is likely other life in the universe. Given that, and knowing what we know about how long it takes to go from bacteria to space travel, we can calculate odds of how much space travel should be going on in a galaxy. Your negative negativeness has the advantage of comparing to observation and simply saying something's wrong, but anyone can do that. I'm asking, what's wrong? What factor in the Drake equation is off? Or what is completely missing?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:58 am

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote:I don't know. You don't know. You made a positive statement. You admit you can't back it up. /closed

Thanks captain buzz kill. Maybe you don't understand the word "paradox". The positive statement has been out there for a long time that there is likely other life in the universe. Given that, and knowing what we know about how long it takes to go from bacteria to space travel, we can calculate odds of how much space travel should be going on in a galaxy. Your negative negativeness has the advantage of comparing to observation and simply saying something's wrong, but anyone can do that. I'm asking, what's wrong? What factor in the Drake equation is off? Or what is completely missing?

I just asked you to justify your statement. I see that you can't. Given that it's not provable there's no surprise in that.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:45 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:I just asked you to justify your statement. I see that you can't. Given that it's not provable there's no surprise in that.

There's no burden of proof here. There is extensive budget, multiple credible projects and ample evidence from biology and physics that there is life elsewhere in the galaxy. And, we haven't found it. That's not that hard to grasp. Picking on me does not make the paradox go away.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Poodle » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:04 am

Lausten wrote:... What factor in the Drake equation is off? Or what is completely missing?
My bold.

That's what I'd go along with. The Drake equation is one big guess and, as you suggest, may well be missing a crucial factor.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:21 am

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:I just asked you to justify your statement. I see that you can't. Given that it's not provable there's no surprise in that.

There's no burden of proof here. There is extensive budget, multiple credible projects and ample evidence from biology and physics that there is life elsewhere in the galaxy. And, we haven't found it. That's not that hard to grasp. Picking on me does not make the paradox go away.

Picking on you? :roll:
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Harte » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:31 am

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Lausten wrote:I don't know. You don't know. You made a positive statement. You admit you can't back it up. /closed

Thanks captain buzz kill. Maybe you don't understand the word "paradox". The positive statement has been out there for a long time that there is likely other life in the universe. Given that, and knowing what we know about how long it takes to go from bacteria to space travel, we can calculate odds of how much space travel should be going on in a galaxy.

Actually, no, we can't.

We also can't say how long it takes to go from bacteria to space travel unless you're positing a doppelganger Earth.

In fact, there is every reason to believe that intelligent life is extremely rare. The development of intelligence here on Earth wasn't linear. We are not descended from dinosaurs. A series of unpredictable events led to the development of intelligence here. Such a series of events can't even be theorized as resulting in intelligence anywhere else, and so there's no way to calculate any odds on the extent of time it takes to develop into a spacefaring society. There's no way to even estimate how long it takes to develop into an intelligent species.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:37 am

Oh, but there's a "very good chance" some intelligent, spacefaring race has violated the laws of physics as we know them and are on their way here as we speak.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:18 am

Are they bringing shrooms again?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:13 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Oh, but there's a "very good chance" some intelligent, spacefaring race has violated the laws of physics as we know them and are on their way here as we speak.

You keep going back to this "violate the laws of physics" thing. What are you talking about? Interstellar travel is possible at sub-light speeds.

The speculative parts of the Drake equation are the development of intelligent life. I'm just not ready to claim special status simply because we have no evidence to the contrary. That's contradictory anyway. You have to simultaneously say we are extremely unlikely and that we have no way of knowing how likely we are. If we had come into the space age in a future universe, where the galaxies have spread out so far from each other that no possible telescope could see another galaxy, then you'd have good evidence of being unique. You'd be wrong with respect to galaxy uniqueness, but your philosophy would be consistent with what you observe.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by gorgeous » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:16 pm

seth------------------------------------------------As I have said before, time as you think of it does not exist.”

“The settings in your physical environment…the physical aspects of life as you know it, are all camouflages.

The brain is a camouflage pattern. It takes up space. It exists in time. The mind takes up no space, it does not have its basic existence in time.
The reality of the inner universe does not take up space, nor does it have its basic existence in time. Your camouflage universe, on the other
hand, takes up space and has an existence in time, but it is not the real and basic universe, any more than the brain is the mind.

Your idea of space is some completely erroneous conception of an emptiness to be filled... True inner space is to the contrary vital energy, itself
alive, possessing abilities or transformation, forming all existences, even the camouflage reality with which you are familiar, and which you
attempt to probe so ineffectively.

This basic universe of which I speak expands constantly in terms of intensity and quality and value, in a way that has nothing to do with your idea
of space. The basic universe beneath all camouflage does not have existence in space at all, as you envision it... Space is a camouflage... ”
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Bart Stewart » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:18 pm

The first post probably has the answer. Either alien intelligence is so rare and remote that we have no chance of encountering them, or they are doing a non-interference thing, like in Star Trek.

Human biologists often practice the latter, merely observing and not disturbing the animals. Then there are the cases where biologists will actually mimic other species for some purpose. I've seen them feeding condor chicks with a hand puppet that looks like a mama condor, and a guy in a panda costume caring for an orphaned panda cub. There have been other experiments like this with prop animals. Imagine aliens doing something like that! Walking among us! If they were advanced enough they could do anything, and you could never prove it was going on. Likewise there is no evidence to support the belief that such a thing is going on, either.

Like the guy said in Cool Hand Luke - What we have here is failure to communicate.

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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by gorgeous » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:49 pm

George Carlin------"I hope we're interfered with again by the extraterrestrials and this time they help... I hope they say were going to do another genetic thing to you humans just like we did when we we taught you architecture...when suddenly you could lift stones up and build the pyramids...when suddenly you had mathematics and many other things...were going to do that again and this time we're gonna help you folks...I hope that happens because then all those dreams that I dont quite have for humanity would come true, and that would be the best surprise that I could get." ------------------------------------...."One of the groups looked just like us....they could be in the pentagon ....they could be in the White House....they were able to manipulate matter and time.....this really shook up our scientists....we have never been alone....." --from video
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jun 05, 2015 5:26 pm

Lausten wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Oh, but there's a "very good chance" some intelligent, spacefaring race has violated the laws of physics as we know them and are on their way here as we speak.

You keep going back to this "violate the laws of physics" thing. What are you talking about? Interstellar travel is possible at sub-light speeds.

The speculative parts of the Drake equation are the development of intelligent life. I'm just not ready to claim special status simply because we have no evidence to the contrary. That's contradictory anyway. You have to simultaneously say we are extremely unlikely and that we have no way of knowing how likely we are. If we had come into the space age in a future universe, where the galaxies have spread out so far from each other that no possible telescope could see another galaxy, then you'd have good evidence of being unique. You'd be wrong with respect to galaxy uniqueness, but your philosophy would be consistent with what you observe.

Why do defensive. You {!#%@} up, you own it and move on.
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Lausten
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Lausten » Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:00 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:Why do defensive. You {!#%@} up, you own it and move on.

own what? The whole point of asking the question is that it's something that can't be proven and you keep pointing that out as if I'm avoiding that. We're not going be able to answer this question until we get a lot more data, so the question is what data can we get. We're identifying actual planets and determining if they have conditions for life. We're looking at Mars and asteroids and seeing if anything is there. Trying to detect lizard-people, probably not such a good idea. Continuing to send and monitor for radio signals, I'm for that.

And how is asking you for clarification considered defensive?

The fact that there is a paradox actually informs my philosophy. That we have no evidence of other intelligent life puts a tremendous amount of responsibility on us to preserve this planet and to promote exploration so either us or knowledge of us survives. At the same time, knowing where we came from tells us we aren't special, that something more intelligent has or could exist. It fills one with awe and humility at the same time.
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Gawdzilla Sama
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:20 pm

I told you where you {!#%@} up. You have memory problems or what?
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by Gord » Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:40 pm

Harte wrote:We are not descended from dinosaurs.

gorgeous might be.
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Re: Where are the aliens?

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:02 pm

Gord wrote:
Harte wrote:We are not descended from dinosaurs.

gorgeous might be.

Which gorgeous are ya talking about, gorgeous? :-P
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