Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by xouper » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:10 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:If a profession requiring serious training and education like accounting is readily replaced, then no one is safe.
Except for those of us who create the computer programs.

Writing good software is hard. We could do so much more if there was some way the process could be automated, but that doesn't seem likely any time soon.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by TJrandom » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:22 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote: ... If a profession requiring serious training and education like accounting is readily replaced, then no one is safe.
Initial setup staff, data input clerks, auditors, compliance officers, rating agency staff, lawyers.... all still needed. Remember?... Garbage in, garbage out.

Plus of course – accountancy isn`t going to be eliminated because a few good accountancy packages are developed. Do they fit every business type – now in existence as well as new business models, for both large and small firms? IMO – not likely.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:39 pm

The SINGULARITY: all accounting will be connecting via the CLOUD to the IRS with daily payments to the Gubment for all estimated taxes owed.

Ahhhhhh...... the future is so bright, I gotta wear shades
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:36 pm

Lots of romanticised optimism here about jobs. If you are due to be in the work force for another 30 years, you have got a shock coming. Probably.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by TJrandom » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:28 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Lots of romanticised optimism here about jobs. If you are due to be in the work force for another 30 years, you have got a shock coming. Probably.
I worked as an employee for 7 different firms across a 45 year career (in IT generally, Medical IT, and mostly Finance IT), and had earlier non IT related employment too. Each of my transitions was planned, with a couple of them planned two firms in advance. All the while I kept current with my prior non-IT skills, and could have fallen back there too if it had become necessary. And even within the IT career – I took on management of HR, Audit, and general administration as additional duties.

For me, the shock should be – finding anyone who believes that they can get by on just one career/job category, or employer. `With skills` means being able to do multiple things – and from an employment perspective everyone should have plotted a Venn diagram – plotting education, experience, interests, job classes, related companies (opportunities), and locations to identify their next possible/probable employment transitions. If a person has neither honed their skills nor planned their career, they may well be surprised.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:55 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:First sentence of the OP: "It appears rather probable that developments in computing and robotics will eliminate a large percentage of jobs." This is expanded on at http://www.technologyreview.com/feature ... ying-jobs/

I stopped reading Martin when he made the same waste of a response you did but he did not address me specifically as you did...so I did respond to you. You are doubling or tripling down on your failure of simple reading comprehension. UBI being one response to the looming if not already here reduction in jobs available because of robots and computers.

If you disagree that robots and computers is not a new shift in the previous history of new tech creating new jobs then say so and why. Don't just mindlessly say new tech will create new jobs. Its a waste of time and a failure to engage.

Just Look.
Well, thanks for the attention I suppose. The first sentence I read was, "Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)". And it appeared that the development of computing and robots was the supporting argument. You testify to the topic being about job replacement and UBI being just a response.

Maybe Lance, the OP, could clarify so we can stop your ridiculous plans for optimizing my time.

You've expressed your opinion as to why you think my participation was a waste and you still lose because it's a claim I made. If you've a problem with it you can learn 2 deal or continue to flail about. You asked me already to expound and I declined. It seems I already have supporting articles for my opinion within this thread and you are well aware of them. But I didn't need those articles to make my claim. Try thinking about that.

(Here we go, bucko)

For example, above Lance thinks this opinion that jobs will rebound is optimistic because he/she says, or rather implies, that pretty soon accountants wont exist anymore. I remain skeptical to this claim. And I have no need to challenge it. It is a legit opinion. See how that works?

Lance thinks accountants wont exist because software is close to replacing them. I think accountants will find new work because as old jobs are replaced new incentives/responsibilities will exist where they could not before. So as far as incentives go we will still need accountants around to audit and progress the work of accounting software. They may not be preforming old age accounting, but they will still need to be around to maybe monitor the new software. Things of this nature.

Again, I am skeptical. But until I see proof I see no reason to believe the trend will change based on a few worried warts. So, I place the ball again in your court.

"Half of all jobs are gone in every 20 years... Why do you expect this centuries long trend to change?" -Martin Brock


Btw. the evidence is not on me because i'm not supporting any new prediction to society in this thread. it goes to those who say, job space is going to vanish and UBI may be needed that have the explaining to do. Yet oddly you've been on my case. What a trip.
Last edited by digress on Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:58 pm

TJ

It will not all happen at once. We will see a slow erosion of jobs over time. I think that 30 years should be enough to see most jobs disappear. After that 30 year period, relatively few people will still be in paid employment.

Of course, I could be wrong (but I doubt it), or the time involved may be quite different from what I post. But whether it takes 20 years or 50, the end result will be the same.

TO digress

The loss of jobs is not really my idea. I have merely repeated the views of a great many people who are much more expert in this field than either you, or I.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by TJrandom » Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:09 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:TJ

It will not all happen at once. We will see a slow erosion of jobs over time. I think that 30 years should be enough to see most jobs disappear. After that 30 year period, relatively few people will still be in paid employment.
I suppose it could work that way. A country could adopt a `no new/additional job` law that prevents anyone from taking a new job, once their current job is lost. And major companies could do this too - by only creating `overseas` jobs. But if we assume democratic and even capitalistic tendencies, I somehow doubt that voters or company management would allow that to happen.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:17 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote: TO digress

The loss of jobs is not really my idea. I have merely repeated the views of a great many people who are much more expert in this field than either you, or I.
Wow, you are saying expert(s) exists on making predictions of this kind? I wonder, How does one become an expert in a field that doesn't yet exist? Because it implies that the trends mentioned above, about the work force, in this thread aren't accurate. And that we've already seen "accountants" (place profession here) in other fields lose their jobs and as a result new jobs were never created.

What examples do these people use to become an expert on this topic? I ask because every source I do read about these predictions the experts always seem to end their analysis with how they may be wrong. And Idk about you but if someone comes to me and says they know what they are doing but then follow that with how they may be wrong - I'd be a bit inclined to think they don't then know.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:16 am

Digress

If you read scientific papers, you will find a statement at the end along those lines pretty much every time. It usually says something like : "more research is needed." But the implication is always that they may be proven wrong.

There is absolutely nothing strange or unusual about such riders on statements. Scientists are smart enough to know that you cannot PROVE anything. You can just do work to add to the evidence. I am smart enough for that also, and the 'experts' who predict job losses are also that smart and make the same rider.

However, that does not mean the claims and predictions are wrong. Mostly they are not, if done properly.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:27 am

You compare the people predicting permanent job space loss as being on a level of scientific inquiry and them stating how they, "may very well be wrong" is comparable to a scientist saying, "more research is needed."

You don't think you are being too bold here?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:41 am

Digress

You do not seem to understand the academic mind.
No, I am not being too bold.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:50 am

Well, you never answered my question. "What examples do these people use to become an expert on this topic?"

For example, I didn't know about the red light shift until I came across the claim our universe is ever-expanding.

What samples have you come across in lost job space that experts have used to lead you to believe in their credulity? I trust as an academic this will be an easy exercise for you.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:58 am

digress wrote:The first sentence I read was, "Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)".
Look closely. Is THAT what you want to say?

then equally parse the rest of your non-sequiturs and disconnects. Basic language/communication skills are missing.

I have no need or desire to argue with you. You can accept parts of what you have been told and improve your position..... or not. Either will define you.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:22 am

Digress

I am not an academic, despite having a degree in biology.
However, I subscribe to several science magazines, and I know their writers are mostly Ph.D. level graduates, with added journalist qualifications. I do not necessarily believe everything they write, but I accept that what they write does reflect the best minds of our time.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:26 am

TJrandom wrote:
Lance Kennedy wrote:TJ

It will not all happen at once. We will see a slow erosion of jobs over time. I think that 30 years should be enough to see most jobs disappear. After that 30 year period, relatively few people will still be in paid employment.
I suppose it could work that way. A country could adopt a `no new/additional job` law that prevents anyone from taking a new job, once their current job is lost. And major companies could do this too - by only creating `overseas` jobs. But if we assume democratic and even capitalistic tendencies, I somehow doubt that voters or company management would allow that to happen.
You also have a non-sequitur there. Lance is repeating the OP that jobs are going to ((and HAVE!)) disappear. Its nothing to do with passing a law preventing people from taking jobs that exist but are forced to go unfilled. Democracy has little to nothing to do with creating jobs and its CAPITALISTIC TENDENCIES that are and will cause jobs to disappear from the USA from outsourcing and out placement and world wide by computers and robots.

UBI is about how to rationally react to these developments that are on going....NOW and in the future...not something that is going to happen in the future. What else is the shrinking middle class and blue collar class all about? Its NOT people choosing not to work or working below their educational levels, or 2 part-time service industry jobs rather than a career.

Its all our society has on offer......on a downward slope for the last 40 years.

Silly to downright idiocy to think things will continue as they always have. Issues get better then worse then better agains. cycles. broad conditions. The Industrial Revolution reduced the number of farm based jobs at the same time as it created more better paid Industrial Jobs. The NEXT REVOLUTION is towards the singularity. Jobs done by computers and robots. Traditional jobs in all sectors reducing in numbers with "employment" being an artifact of the past.

Just look.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:44 am

I rather like the economy described in Star Trek, the New Generation (Series 1, episode 26) in which Piccard describes a society in which no one needs to work, no one is in material need, and the focus is on personal development. Mind you, that was in the fictional 24th Century......

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:07 am

focus is on personal development====and we all know that could only take place after a whole lot of genetic engineering.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:10 am

"Genetic Engineering" reminded me. 20 years ago, even now, its said to be a real growth area of new technology. All those new jobs. The Human Genome Project was supposed to take millions of dollars, dozens of researchers and 20 years to accomplish. Moore's Law marching on provided computers and the job was completed in half the time, with half the people, at half the money. Now....it all automated, takes one person, 1-2 days, and a few thousand dollars.

Spot the issue.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by xouper » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:19 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:I rather like the economy described in Star Trek, the New Generation (Series 1, episode 26) in which Piccard describes a society in which no one needs to work, no one is in material need, and the focus is on personal development. Mind you, that was in the fictional 24th Century......
I remember that. And I remember thinking, that's a reasonable prediction of a fully automated economy. Where do I sign up? But as I thought more about it, his description leaves many crucial questions unanswered.

Some examples off the top of my head:

1. If someone wants to own a vineyard in France, as Picard's brother does, how does one buy that in Picard's world?

2. If someone wants a bigger house in San Fransisco with a bigger swimming pool, how does one buy that in Picard's economy?

3. If someone wants to have a live orchestra play at their wedding, how does one buy that in Picard's economy?

4. In Picard's world, who decides where the next hockey arena will be built, and how big it shall be, etc?

5. What happens in Ten Forward on those days no one wants to do the job of bartender?

In other words, it seems to me that no matter how much automation there is, there will still be many things that people want that are severely limited in supply and there must be some way to trade for them.

I assume these questions can be answered, but Star Trek never addressed them.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:34 am

xouper==thats an excellent subject, the "next" step after the next step. Once by and large robots and computers provide all the physical things needed for all members of society to live to a base level, then how to distribute the bennies?

Right off the start, seems to me some kind of credit system could supplement the cash and capitalism system required to distribute labor as we have today. I can see credits distributed by all the actual labor jobs that do remain...like robot development beyond what they do themselves? Or given the "self actualization" scheme Picard notes, points could be given to authors of books according to how many read and vote for the message in such books.

Lots of different ways to divvy up the class rewards society has always found itself enthralled by.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by xouper » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:00 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:xouper==thats an excellent subject, the "next" step after the next step. Once by and large robots and computers provide all the physical things needed for all members of society to live to a base level, then how to distribute the bennies?

Right off the start, seems to me some kind of credit system could supplement the cash and capitalism system required to distribute labor as we have today. I can see credits distributed by all the actual labor jobs that do remain...like robot development beyond what they do themselves? Or given the "self actualization" scheme Picard notes, points could be given to authors of books according to how many read and vote for the message in such books.

Lots of different ways to divvy up the class rewards society has always found itself enthralled by.
Regardless if you call them "points" or "credits' that you can use to exchange for things you want, that is the fundamental essence of a capitalist economy. In other words, the law of supply and demand will still be valid, and a free market economy (capitalism) will still be the best way to accommodate that law.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:19 am

xouper--no, the crucial difference being that all base needs are provided to all citizens and one result could be a turn to arts and contemplation which is available to all once basic needs are provided. So..."now" how to distribute what might be called premium goodies like that bigger house with a better view?

Traditional capitalism goes to keeping yourself alive....not what you choose to do when basic needs are not wanting.

Yes....lots of overlap, but pay attention to the differences.

((Tangent topic...listening to Sam Harris explain his anti-gun approach. Seems many people thought his reasonable reforms/concerns were so gun favorable as to make him a Gun Nut, but the speech is to affirm he's a Gun Nazi. I'll let you know if he says something unique.


On topic: you know....with everything provided, then one of the bennies to distribute could be "time on the shooting range" for all the Gun Nuts who want to maintain such skills. Probably in the new age a Gun Nut with a Gun would be little issue because......................RoboMechCop. Ain't going to beat him, not connected to the Pre-Crime actuarial predictive pre-crime data base all those robots would be hooked up to.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:43 am

Star Trek did not, of course, answer all questions. One that I have is where are the robots. Apart from Data, of course. There will be plenty of highly sophisticated robots before the 24th Century. I guess the answer is that, at the time those episodes were written, computers seemed more the area of advance.

I would be inclined to think that the starship Enterprise would be run by computers and robots with (maybe) a single token human. There would be no need for a large crew.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:56 am

It would take over 400 engineers to take those warp engines from impulse to warp. Its only with computers that you can have voice commands from the Command Deck given to a single Engineer to press a button down there to get warp speed. Ha, ha....24th Century Space Tech switched on and off by 16th Century Sailing Technology.

A mix of things.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by JO 753 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:24 am

xouper wrote: Except for those of us who create the computer programs.
Programming iz the most precarious profession now. Software that creates software on request iz an obvious step. Then pretty soon the 'software' consept goez extinct.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by xouper » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:13 am

JO 753 wrote:
xouper wrote:Except for those of us who create the computer programs.
Programming iz the most precarious profession now.
Not right now we aren't. Not today. Not even close. As things stand today, I predict software engineering will be one of the last occupations to be automated. But not for lack of trying.
JO 753 wrote:Software that creates software on request iz an obvious step. Then pretty soon the 'software' consept goez extinct.
That's an obvious prediction, yes.

Except that we are no where near that point. Researchers are making progress, but we are a long loooong way from automatic creation of software. Keep in mind I am talking about all kinds of software, from business data processing to software that flies drones to software that runs internet forums.

The kind of creativity required to create software is far beyond anything that computers can do today. Maybe some day, but also quite possibly, never. It is a far harder problem than most people think.

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by xouper » Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:42 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:xouper--no, the crucial difference ...
Thanks for explaining what you meant.

You've expressed your opinion and I've expressed mine. And that's all there is to it, anonymous idiots like you and me running our mouths on the internet. ;)

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by JO 753 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:28 pm

I hav to admit that its likely I dont know wut I'm tokking about, but it seemz to me that with systemz that can do incredibly complex information juggling acts like modeling combustion, dynamic stresses in jet enjinez, animate an entire manufacturing plant full uv machines, etc., completely automating software creation woud be almost trivial. How much uv the creation uv 'apps' iz alredy automated to make it eazy for nonprogrammerz?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 6:07 pm

xouper wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:xouper--no, the crucial difference ...
Thanks for explaining what you meant.

You've expressed your opinion and I've expressed mine. And that's all there is to it, anonymous idiots like you and me running our mouths on the internet. ;)
I agree and disagree. I don't care what any persons opinion is (see digress) including my own. But what I do care about is the facts and analysis that support any given opinion. Arguing only one side of an issue can be good, but the best analysis comes from adding up the pros and cons, the good and the bad, and making judgments. The similarities and the differences. Way too many people have only one side of an issue and have no balance at all.

As to we both being idiots....Hey!==we can both type. Thats something!!
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by JO 753 » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:42 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:But what I do care about is the facts and analysis that support any given opinion.
And yet sumhow you still manaj to be agenst Nooalf.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by TJrandom » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:11 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:[.. What else is the shrinking middle class and blue collar class all about? ...


Excellent question - at least partially already answered, or at least alluded to in the well balanced (IMO) article you (I believe it was yours) linked. Some of those causes – I have added some of my own observations… are:

Internationalization - making job competition international

The recent economic downturn

The cuts in spending on education - making potential employees less desirable (and even more so when compared to international candidates from the top levels of overseas institutions)

Dearth of information from large corporations on how many employees are US based vs based overseas in annual reports

Insufficient corporate efforts to relocate/retrain employees (and no legal requirement to do so)

At will employment

And as for blue collar in particular - the natural trend of jobs/job requirements moving to white collar as technology advances

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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:17 pm

JO 753 wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:But what I do care about is the facts and analysis that support any given opinion.
And yet sumhow you still manaj to be agenst Nooalf.
Well, its an a priori given that I have to be interested in the subject. AFTER THAT, then its facts and analysis.

NoAlf from my quick glance is your explanation of how a standardized phoenetic based spelling system should be organized? If I'm wrong...please correct me. Why not go for standardized syntax at the same time?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:15 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
digress wrote:The first sentence I read was, "Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)".
Look closely. Is THAT what you want to say?

then equally parse the rest of your non-sequiturs and disconnects. Basic language/communication skills are missing.

I have no need or desire to argue with you. You can accept parts of what you have been told and improve your position..... or not. Either will define you.
It was an uphill battle but your victory goes well defined. Congrats.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:28 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Digress

I am not an academic, despite having a degree in biology.
However, I subscribe to several science magazines, and I know their writers are mostly Ph.D. level graduates, with added journalist qualifications. I do not necessarily believe everything they write, but I accept that what they write does reflect the best minds of our time.
It was my hunch that you had subscribed.

Your authors sound well qualified. Im just sad it will take 30 years to test them.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by JO 753 » Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:04 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
JO 753 wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:But what I do care about is the facts and analysis that support any given opinion.
And yet sumhow you still manaj to be agenst Nooalf.
Well, its an a priori given that I have to be interested in the subject. AFTER THAT, then its facts and analysis.

NoAlf from my quick glance is your explanation of how a standardized phoenetic based spelling system should be organized? If I'm wrong...please correct me. Why not go for standardized syntax at the same time?
You contradict yourself on 2 levelz and several instansez.
http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopic.p ... &start=360

Forming an opinion without any facts or lojik, claiming disinterest wile posting on the subject - its az if you had a chip on your shoulder about it befor you even joined the forum.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by digress » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:48 am

that's impossible JO. noble bobbo would never post without facts or logic. that would be a complete waste of everyones time. you are about to be royally defined.

(i think ive your back bobbo - youll just have to confirm im comprehending jos response correctly)
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Oct 28, 2015 3:11 pm

Jo--I really like being hauled up short...shown I'm wrong. Not with some mindless quibble but to the heart of the matter so I went to your link interested in what you had.

You got nothing.

I expect you and digress to have a long conversation about it.
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:26 am

http://yle.fi/uutiset/kela_to_prepare_b ... al/8422295
Looks like the Fins are going to this system. Lots of cost savings on the management side of things. I wonder how many refugees their system could handle?
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Re: Unconditional Basic Income (UBI)

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:10 pm

The population of Finland is a little over 5 million. If we assume an added 1% is not too great a burden on their unconditional basic income system, that is over 50,000 refugees.