100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Heated discussions on a hot topic.
User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:43 pm

Bobbo

100 million dead within 11 years is a disaster. A few hundred dead is just a variation within the statistical noise.

Predicting 100 million dead, by which I mean an extra 100 million who would not otherwise die, due to global warming, is very, very, very unlikely to be correct. We have had global climate change since the end of the Little Ice Age, and we have not experienced over 250 years even the slightest fraction of that extra death rate from climate change. Yet you and others claim we will see an extra 100 million deaths in the next 11 years. That is the same number of deaths per year that humanity suffered during World War II. Do you not see how absurd that is ?

It is a false claim and thus is alarmist.

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:43 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:27 pm
Lance Kennedy wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:50 pm
Yes it is.
The correct approach is to calmly, though loudly, inform everyone that there is a problem, and ask them to take the required action in a calm and orderly fashion. Panic kills.
bwhahahahahah: the fine yet transparent art of the quibble. The difference between yelling and loudly? ………………….Just look at yourself. Now: is it Alarmist to do either in said on fire Theater?...……………...and yes...…….the context is that the Earth is On Fire.
I really don't know where Lance gets his ideas. Calling people alarmists is a denialist tactic. We have known about AGW for 40 years now and made many predictions that have come to pass.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:48 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:43 pm
Bobbo

100 million dead within 11 years is a disaster. A few hundred dead is just a variation within the statistical noise.

Predicting 100 million dead, by which I mean an extra 100 million who would not otherwise die, due to global warming, is very, very, very unlikely to be correct. We have had global climate change since the end of the Little Ice Age, and we have not experienced over 250 years even the slightest fraction of that extra death rate from climate change. Yet you and others claim we will see an extra 100 million deaths in the next 11 years. That is the same number of deaths per year that humanity suffered during World War II. Do you not see how absurd that is ?

It is a false claim and thus is alarmist.
What I keep repeating is, where are your facts, and you keep repeating that the some facts are wrong, then repeating solutions that deal with symptoms only and only a few of them. You ignore things like coastal cities. I can’t recreate the study that was cited, but I can’t find anything specifically wrong with it either. It seems to me that you are not comprehending the number itself. It’s not that big. There are 7 billion of us. I’m actually more concerned by the recent US report about the economic impact. It makes a pretty good case that investing in mitigating carbon emissions is a sane use of our resources. Either way, no, I don’t think the comparison of climate change to WWII is absurd at all. Do you think someone who predicted that many deaths during WWII would have been called alarmist? I think they would.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:23 am

Lausten

You still do not see how absurd this is. Duh !

In 250 years of global warming, there has been a temperature rise of just over 1 degree Celsius as a global average, and no extra deaths that we can be sure of. Global warming will continue for the next 11 to 12 years at a similar rate, but you claim there will, over that 11 to 12 years, suddenly be 100 million deaths, and you still cannot see how idiotic that assertion is. Really, how can anyone be that dim witted ?

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:10 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:23 am
Lausten

You still do not see how absurd this is. Duh !

In 250 years of global warming, there has been a temperature rise of just over 1 degree Celsius as a global average, and no extra deaths that we can be sure of.
Really? I thought you had already agreed that climate change has caused events, like more hurricanes and more fires. So, "no extra deaths"? You are retreating into territory you know you can't defend. Also, what does 1 degree mean? Does it mean you can just add one degree to every daily weather report from 250 years ago? Here's a hint: it doesn't mean that.
Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:23 am
Global warming will continue for the next 11 to 12 years at a similar rate,
So you say, but you'd be wrong. You are so ignorant of the facts. Why don't you spend some time actually reading the IPCC reports instead of arguing with me. I'm not going to waste my time cutting and pasting things for you. Start with the number 350. Why is it significant? When did we surpass it? Also, learn about how the carbon increase precedes the changes.
Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:23 am
but you claim there will, over that 11 to 12 years, suddenly be 100 million deaths, and you still cannot see how idiotic that assertion is. Really, how can anyone be that dim witted ?
Then, learn about how glaciers are melting even faster than we expected. In other words, they were not alarmist enough. They took your advice and tried to talk about error bars. They explained the science using scientific language. Well, reality is turning out to be at the high end of the predictions.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:01 pm

During World War II, alarmists were saying, "Face it, the Nazis and the Japanese are much too strong, and they are going to take over the world, and we are powerless to stop them. We'd better start brushing up on Mein Kampf." My grandfather recounted some German neighbors coming to visit in the early part of the war, offering to paint their barn with a large swastika, so that they might have an easier time when the Nazis came.

It's a good thing that people were more pragmatic in those days, and recognized the silliness of "crying wolf" and "Chicken Little" attitudes for what they were.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:43 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:01 pm
During World War II, alarmists were saying, "Face it, the Nazis and the Japanese are much too strong, and they are going to take over the world, and we are powerless to stop them. We'd better start brushing up on Mein Kampf." My grandfather recounted some German neighbors coming to visit in the early part of the war, offering to paint their barn with a large swastika, so that they might have an easier time when the Nazis came.

It's a good thing that people were more pragmatic in those days, and recognized the silliness of "crying wolf" and "Chicken Little" attitudes for what they were.
Pragmatic? Going over to Europe and face certain death is pragmatic? Recycling tooth paste tubes is pragmatic? Funny, recycling, what a great idea! Maybe we should show that little effort is part of a much larger effort to save the world!

Ask any military historian and you'll find that it was not a given at all that we would win that war. The world was far outgunned by the Germans. I played a war game when I was a kid, "Battle of the Bulge", the Germans won quite often. The allies won because Hitler tried to fight on two fronts and made lots of other mistakes, not to mention being a total jerk and having people inside his country and his own military work against him, AND, there was a massive mobilization of multiple countries to fight the threat. Cultural changes were made, like women working in factories. Scientists, including some who defected, created new weapons.

It's funny that the very scale of effort that actually happened in the examples you give are exactly what is being called for to deal with the current problem. The current problem just doesn't have a face. It doesn't point a gun at the good guys and show itself. It appears arbitrarily and is difficult to implicate because it's an increase in things that already happen not an anomaly you can pin down or drop a bomb on.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:59 pm

I'll grant that there are parallels between the way governments did nothing in the years before WWII while the Axis powers grew, and the way governments are currently doing not enough about climate change. But alarmism is not the remedy. Whipping up fears like "100 million could die" and such nonsense achieve nothing, and have the reverse effect of desensitizing people to the problem. Denialists seize on such things, and point to the growing list of failed predictions as "proof" for their side. It's almost as though the failed predictions have sparked a movement on its own.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:33 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:23 am
Lausten

You still do not see how absurd this is. Duh !

In 250 years of global warming, there has been a temperature rise of just over 1 degree Celsius as a global average, and no extra deaths that we can be sure of. Global warming will continue for the next 11 to 12 years at a similar rate, but you claim there will, over that 11 to 12 years, suddenly be 100 million deaths, and you still cannot see how idiotic that assertion is. Really, how can anyone be that dim witted ?
ummmmmm …………………...Lance???????...….. is one degree Celsius in 250 "a similar rate" as one degree Celsius in 10 years? Seems to me you are off by a factor of X-25? Now....I KNOW HOW FOOLISH this is to say...……..but you said it. You are not "foolish" per se...…….but you said it.

I suspect something emotional...……………...you know...…………..silly hoomans.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:35 pm

Lausten wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:43 pm

It's funny that the very scale of effort that actually happened in the examples you give are exactly what is being called for to deal with the current problem. The current problem just doesn't have a face. It doesn't point a gun at the good guys and show itself. It appears arbitrarily and is difficult to implicate because it's an increase in things that already happen not an anomaly you can pin down or drop a bomb on.
EXCELLENT INSIGHT. And anything less than a WW2 response is just denial.==>and of course, no one expects a WW2 response...……"at this time", nor for the foreseeable future. but it will come. Sadly I fear after the Nazi's take Britain and carve up Russia with the Japanese. But who knows.....maybe we could win even after that? How red do those rosy glasses have to be?
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4566
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:48 pm

It is true that Politicians have let the Crisis of Climate Change go to waste by pretending it isn't one.

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:57 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:48 pm
It is true that Politicians have let the Crisis of Climate Change go to waste by pretending it isn't one.
Part of the reason for some politicians to dismiss climate change is to point at the long list of failed climate predictions. It takes a special kind of cult mentality to keep trusting prophets who have a long record of being consistently wrong.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:06 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:35 pm
EXCELLENT INSIGHT. And anything less than a WW2 response is just denial.==>and of course, no one expects a WW2 response...……"at this time", nor for the foreseeable future. but it will come. Sadly I fear after the Nazi's take Britain and carve up Russia with the Japanese. But who knows.....maybe we could win even after that? How red do those rosy glasses have to be?
Agreed, a "WWII response" would be overkill at this time. But as we transition away from carbon-based fuels, we can expect that the effects of global warming to lessen over time. This is not a WWII-type threat; it's not snowballing despite alarmist predictions of such. I am seeing positive movement with regard to climate change, and I think we need to continue this trend, and to help it accelerate, but alarmism is not the correct tactic to bring it about.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:36 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:06 pm
But as we transition away from carbon-based fuels, we can expect that the effects of global warming to lessen over time.
No. WE ARE NOT TRANSITIONING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS==>we are relying on them more and more. The CATROSPHIC EFFECTS of AGW will occur before the too shallow curves of transitions to Green Energy alone will have their lessening effects. I believe this is a 'FACTUAL" CLAIM. Ref the IPCC models that predict harm based on various levels of temp rise based on various levels of Fossil Fuel burning...………..then cross-ref that we burn more FF every year. The confusing to too many fact that we are investing in Green Energy at higher rates all the time does not negate the continuing INCREASING USE OF FF. People have a hard time with FOCUS...……...too easily distracted.

landrew wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:06 pm
This is not a WWII-type threat; it's not snowballing despite alarmist predictions of such. I am seeing positive movement with regard to climate change, and I think we need to continue this trend, and to help it accelerate, but alarmism is not the correct tactic to bring it about.
Or not, as touched on above. Knowledge/Imagination. Fortify yourself.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:10 pm

Global warming is not a sudden thing. The level of warming is a tiny fraction of a degree per year. In the next decade, and up until 2030, the warming will be maybe 0.1 Celsius, at most. Yet the idiots claim that will be enough to kill 100 million people. How the hell can so called skeptics be so dim ?

That number was posted by crackpots. It was not posted by the IPCC or any consensus of reputable scientists. So why do you gullible people take it seriously ?

Lauston.
I said there were no deaths we can be sure of. It is possible that there have been a small number of extra deaths due fo global warming, but that is not something we can truly know. Heat waves, hurricanes, and forest fires have always happened. Deaths from those causes may have increased due to global warming but no good scientist is going to make that a certain statement. If there are extra deaths, it is probable that it is less than 10,000 in 250 years. Yet you gullible types are prepared to believe a crackpot plot claim of 100 million in just over a decade. SHEESH!

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:35 pm

Interesting read on how ALARMED we should all be...….Note the Best Case mechanics based on what we are (not) doing today: we overshoot the 1.5C temp rise up to 2.0C but do manage to return to the 1.5. All Good?==No. Thats makes the interesting read. In essence, coming pretty close to calling for a WW2 effort.

Also of note, a Point often made by Lance: Side bar at the link on Alarmist need to fix the Mosul Dam before it fails and kills One Million People.
Unrelated tech from other news feeds: seems the Ion powered (All Electric) airplane is being built right now. Out of the Lab, and into production. Technology does seem like magic from time to time...………..too bad it can't turn co2 into o2 at the same time? What else would have to be added?
https://tech.slashdot.org/story/18/12/1 ... lashdot%29


https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2 ... ate-change
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4566
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:52 pm

Right.
If scientists told us that an Extinction Level Comet is inbound and it will take global efforts and trillions to avoid millions and billlions of deaths, we would see less signs but might be more alarmed.
It's all in the marketing.

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:12 pm

There has been a constant thread throughout here about how we handling the problem or turning some sort of corner. We're not. This is my response to all of those comments.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/12/08/g ... high-2018/
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:13 pm

landrew wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:59 pm
I'll grant that there are parallels between the way governments did nothing in the years before WWII while the Axis powers grew, and the way governments are currently doing not enough about climate change. But alarmism is not the remedy. Whipping up fears like "100 million could die" and such nonsense achieve nothing, and have the reverse effect of desensitizing people to the problem. Denialists seize on such things, and point to the growing list of failed predictions as "proof" for their side. It's almost as though the failed predictions have sparked a movement on its own.
This has a very similar sound to my evangelical uncle who says we should stop talking about racism and that will make it go away.

And someone said something about India and China increasing their emissions at a higher RATE than the US. Google this "total carbon emissions per country", then calculate those rates times actuals and see how you are attempting to find data that fits your narrative.
Last edited by Lausten on Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4566
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:17 pm

We aren't handling the problem, we are waiting for technology to solve it in a way that doesn't require us to change anything.
And it might work (minus the 100 millions + who can't afford the tech).

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:32 pm

Worse than not handling...………..note the one month long RIOT in France when a tax is imposed on fuel for the purpose of combating AGW. "The French people do not accept the need to tax them now to combat AGW."

Heh, heh, Raise your hand: anyone think this action is in response to Alarmist threats?....or something much more basic in hooman makeup? yea verily: Yelling Fire in a theater on Fire (backstage) and no one is moving......in fact, rioting to get you to shut up.

Trump short term interests ruling the world. Long range SCIENTIFIC BASED EXPLANATIONS about cause and effect: dismissed.

……..…………..silly hoomans...…...but I do blame the calm talking enablers even moreso. They are the leaders that are taking us down this path...……..
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:08 pm

Lausten wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:12 pm
There has been a constant thread throughout here about how we handling the problem or turning some sort of corner. We're not.
Another straw man from lauston. Consistent, anyway.

No one has said we are handling the problem or turning a corner. I said we have made a start. Please keep to what has been said.

My big gripe here is the idiocy of believing that 100 million will be killed by global warming by 2030. That is gullible, idiotic, and utterly unworthy of anyone who tries to claim to be a good scientific skeptic.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:08 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:08 pm
My big gripe here is the idiocy of believing that 100 million will be killed by global warming by 2030. That is gullible, idiotic, and utterly unworthy of anyone who tries to claim to be a good scientific skeptic.
What is your number? …………….any source, or just your good common sense??
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:40 am

Bobbo

When the top scientists fail to say it, that is evidence. You quoted a crackpot. That is not evidence. If you quoted the IPCC as a group making that claim, I would take it a bit more seriously, and look to see what sudden disaster might be happening. But that is not the case. It is just one crackpot, and a few on this forum trying to dig up rationalizations to support an opinion that is plain idiotic.

The genuinely rational reasoning goes like this.
250 years of gradual global warming MAY (or may not) have resulted in 10,000 extra deaths. This warming is slow and gradual, and there is nothing to suggest that it will be anything else other than slow and gradual in the next decade either. So there is absolutely no reason to suggest that extra deaths, that would not have occurred without global warming, will SUDDENLY leap to more than 8 million each and every year that passes.

Seriously, to believe what you have posted would require a lack of intelligence and a level of gullibility well in excess of that of the generally smart people on this forum.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:50 pm

What is your number? …………….any source, or just your good common sense??

Shirley you have more than argument from incredulity?
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:01 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:40 am

The genuinely rational reasoning goes like this.
250 years of gradual global warming MAY (or may not) have resulted in 10,000 extra deaths. This warming is slow and gradual, and there is nothing to suggest that it will be anything else other than slow and gradual in the next decade either. So there is absolutely no reason to suggest that extra deaths, that would not have occurred without global warming, will SUDDENLY leap to more than 8 million each and every year that passes.
If I hadn't seen a long history of posts from Lance, I'd swear he is a bot. He keeps repeating that others are stupid for holding their position and keeps coming up with tropes as arguments. Here, he perfectly describes the frog sitting in a kettle as it slowly warms up. I couldn't write this any better if I tried to invent a character that thinks the way he does.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:16 pm

Death and Climate Change | Energy Matters
http://euanmearns.com/death-and-climate-change/

According to the Guardian the Global Humanitarian Forum report showed that “Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people …. It projects that increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a …

all it takes is knowledge and imagination laid across stated assumptions. Easy.

Here's another:

Climate change expected to increase premature deaths from ...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 114536.htm

Future climate change, if left unaddressed, is expected to cause roughly 60,000 deaths globally in the year 2030 and 260,000 deaths in 2100 due to climate change's effect on global air pollution …

They all total to far fewer than anything warranting an Alarm in my book. How to find a TOTALLY INCLUSIVE LIST? EG: where is the no of deaths caused by civil war caused by drought forcing farmers off their land?...…..or sea level rise doing the same thing??? Or..the number of Frenchmen killed in riots protesting Macrons Tax scheme???==================>knowledge and imagination and stated assumptions.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:59 pm

You can't reason with doomsayers. The more you present them with facts, figures and common sense, the more entrenched they become. All you can do is wait patiently as their doomsday deadlines pass, and hope that some of them will quietly abandon their cultish beliefs. Then they can rejoin the rest of us who are working on our problems in a realistic way.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:07 pm

landrew wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:59 pm
You can't reason with doomsayers. The more you present them with facts, figures and common sense, the more entrenched they become. All you can do is wait patiently as their doomsday deadlines pass, and hope that some of them will quietly abandon their cultish beliefs. Then they can rejoin the rest of us who are working on our problems in a realistic way.
Facts? Figures? Haven't seen any in this thread that say GCC won't be causing lots more deaths soon. Just comparisons to cities in Australia and how we handled something 400 years ago.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:14 pm

Lausten wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:07 pm
landrew wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:59 pm
You can't reason with doomsayers. The more you present them with facts, figures and common sense, the more entrenched they become. All you can do is wait patiently as their doomsday deadlines pass, and hope that some of them will quietly abandon their cultish beliefs. Then they can rejoin the rest of us who are working on our problems in a realistic way.
Facts? Figures? Haven't seen any in this thread that say GCC won't be causing lots more deaths soon. Just comparisons to cities in Australia and how we handled something 400 years ago.
Typical reaction. Someone doubts you and you place all the burden of proof on the other side. You are overstating the facts over and over. Make up as large a number as you like, blame it on climate change, and then ask someone to disprove it. Nice racket.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:43 pm

With all that is said, my argument from incredulity stands. The figure 100 million is just ludicrous.

Forest fires generally kill very few. The recent Californian fires set records, and are still minimal. Hurricanes may kill a few hundred, in extreme cases. Heat waves may kill a few thousand, but even that depends on people being unprepared. With frequent high temperatures, people will soon learn and take the precautions to lower the death toll. After all, you do not see thousands of Tuareg dying from high temperatures, and they face up to 50 Celsius. They are prepared and adapted.

The 100 million is pure fantasy.

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:47 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:43 pm
With all that is said, my argument from incredulity stands. The figure 100 million is just ludicrous.

Forest fires generally kill very few. The recent Californian fires set records, and are still minimal. Hurricanes may kill a few hundred, in extreme cases. Heat waves may kill a few thousand, but even that depends on people being unprepared. With frequent high temperatures, people will soon learn and take the precautions to lower the death toll. After all, you do not see thousands of Tuareg dying from high temperatures, and they face up to 50 Celsius. They are prepared and adapted.

The 100 million is pure fantasy.
How does one learn to eat something that is no longer there? How does one learn to live in an apartment building that is under water?
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
Lausten
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3674
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm
Location: Northern Minnesota

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lausten » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:55 pm

landrew wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:14 pm
Lausten wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:07 pm
landrew wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:59 pm
You can't reason with doomsayers. The more you present them with facts, figures and common sense, the more entrenched they become. All you can do is wait patiently as their doomsday deadlines pass, and hope that some of them will quietly abandon their cultish beliefs. Then they can rejoin the rest of us who are working on our problems in a realistic way.
Facts? Figures? Haven't seen any in this thread that say GCC won't be causing lots more deaths soon. Just comparisons to cities in Australia and how we handled something 400 years ago.
Typical reaction. Someone doubts you and you place all the burden of proof on the other side. You are overstating the facts over and over. Make up as large a number as you like, blame it on climate change, and then ask someone to disprove it. Nice racket.
You could claim to win any argument with logic like that. Too bad it is not logical. The closest you come to logic is that the linked OP article does not show all of its work. It lists countries cross referenced by the types of changes they are likely to see and provides a number of deaths to each of those. Someone out there is looking at those and attempting to recreate them, that's how you do science. They could take the larger ones and make a case for or against them and begin to chip away at the total if they so desired. Better, would be finding out more about the methodology of how those numbers were arrived at. If it's bad enough, the entire report could be dismissed. You've done neither of those, or found someone who has done either of those.
A sermon helper that doesn't tell you what to believe: http://www.milepost100.com

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
Has No Life
Posts: 11675
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by OlegTheBatty » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:43 pm

Every day, people die. Just because a death occurs during a heat wave doesn't mean that the heat wave caused the death. To pick out the heat wave deaths, it is necessary to compare that time period with similar recent time periods with no heat wave and note the difference.

To claim that 100,000,000 will die due to global warming in the next decade It is necessary to show how the number of deaths will increase over the number that will die from all other causes. All Other Causes includes deaths from heat waves, floods, hurricanes and other weather related disasters that would occur without global warming.

Including deaths from wars such as the civil war in Syria is also problematic. It assumes that the only possible outcome from climate related urbanization is civil war; but urbanization is occurring all over the world. Only in Syria has it contributed to a civil war. Global warming did not cause Assad to be consumed by such a lust for power. So, how many of the deaths in the Syrian civil war can we allot to global warming? How many fewer deaths would there have been had Assad located some basic respect for his own citizens in that psyche of his?

An analysis that does not show all the assumptions, and the rationale for them, is not worth spit. Without that, it is impossible to verify any of their numbers. For all we know, they would take the recent California wildfire (85 dead, 3 missing last I saw) and include everyone who died in California during the time of the fire in their estimates.

You gotta show your work!
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:00 pm

What if...
It's just too hot outside to have a war, so everybody takes a siesta instead?

Facetiously, I make my point. But we don't need to make up whoppers to fix the problem.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
landrew
Has More Than 9K Posts
Posts: 9046
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 5:51 am

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by landrew » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:13 pm

For a proper comparison, you need to set up two models; one with climate change, and one without. That's not what's being done in this case, where someone created one model where they simply added up all the possible deaths which could be attributed to climate change. This is deeply flawed because it contains the Accident fallacy. e.g. "90% of people who had traffic accidents have eaten carrots, therefore carrots cause traffic accidents." In this case, it's used this way: "1. people will die. 2. climate change exists. 3. therefore climate change caused the deaths." Actually, there's no way to accurately account for how many people died directly from climate change; it amounts to a WAG (wild-ass guess).
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
Has No Life
Posts: 11675
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by OlegTheBatty » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:27 pm

landrew wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:13 pm
For a proper comparison, you need to set up two models; one with climate change, and one without. That's not what's being done in this case, where someone created one model where they simply added up all the possible deaths which could be attributed to climate change. This is deeply flawed because it contains the Accident fallacy. e.g. "90% of people who had traffic accidents have eaten carrots, therefore carrots cause traffic accidents." In this case, it's used this way: "1. people will die. 2. climate change exists. 3. therefore climate change caused the deaths." Actually, there's no way to accurately account for how many people died directly from climate change; it amounts to a WAG (wild-ass guess).
Not exactly WAG, but still an estimate rather than a fact.

Compare deaths during heat wave vs. same period with no heat wave to get number associated with heat wave.
Compare heat wave deaths this time with previous times; and compare severity of heat waves to get an estimate of how many deaths associated with increasing severity. It is still an estimate based on correlation/causation, but it gets you into a reasonable ballpark.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
Has No Life
Posts: 12056
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:35 am

Do not forget the time limit this claim carries. The idiots are not just saying that global warming will kill 100 million people, but they are sticking their neck out and saying 100 million global warming deaths by 2030. That time limit makes it impossible. For example, sea level rise will be a further 35 millimeters, or about one and a half inches. Not really going to drown anyone as Lauston implied. Duh !

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 16230
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:47 am

Just for grins...……….I went back and read the op link. Found a link in that "report" to this: https://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... UMMARY.pdf

Fun to nit pick it...…….like what is "indoor pollution?"...….but I'm too sleepy right now. Mañana.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
Has No Life
Posts: 11675
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: 100 Million Could Die From Climate Change By 2030

Post by OlegTheBatty » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:17 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:35 am
Do not forget the time limit this claim carries. The idiots are not just saying that global warming will kill 100 million people, but they are sticking their neck out and saying 100 million global warming deaths by 2030. That time limit makes it impossible. For example, sea level rise will be a further 35 millimeters, or about one and a half inches. Not really going to drown anyone as Lauston implied. Duh !
Floods can drown people. Torrential rains can cause floods. Global warming can cause torrential rains.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero