1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

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1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:55 am

I keep googling the "how is AGW going to end us" and have never gotten a good feel for what "really" is going to happen. I think the scientist who "know" don't want to come off as scaremongers...…….but if the link is anywhere near true....or even off just by 100%, sure seems to me lives in being right now are going to see some very bad times?

The link says we are on target to hit 1000ppm co2 by 2100. Last time earth had that much co2 was right after the dinosaurs were wiped out and Earth was a hell hole: way too hot. 86F at the watery poles and the equator not habitable by plant or animal.

this is the worst reasonably close specific suggestion of our future that I have found to date.

Its a one page read: http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/20 ... edent.html

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:26 am

What it is, Bobbo, is the closest prediction to your emotion based predictions. Duh !!

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:07 am

There is a decent chance I'll be dead by 2100.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Gord » Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:53 am

Please take me with you.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by OlegTheBatty » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:26 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:I keep googling the "how is AGW going to end us" and have never gotten a good feel for what "really" is going to happen. I think the scientist who "know" don't want to come off as scaremongers...…….but if the link is anywhere near true....or even off just by 100%, sure seems to me lives in being right now are going to see some very bad times?

The link says we are on target to hit 1000ppm co2 by 2100. Last time earth had that much co2 was right after the dinosaurs were wiped out and Earth was a hell hole: way too hot. 86F at the watery poles and the equator not habitable by plant or animal.

this is the worst reasonably close specific suggestion of our future that I have found to date.

Its a one page read: http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/20 ... edent.html

Scaremongering

The tropics were only a few degrees warmer than now. Life flourished. The equator was not a dead zone. The polar temperature is exaggerated.

Keep in mind that without ice caps, the temperature gradient from equator to pole was much shallower than today.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:21 pm

Of course "life flourished" and absent lava covering the earths surface, it always will. Its the most common, most silly, mistake/conflation on the issue of AGW that is used. THE POINT IS: what hoomans have constructed and are used to and INVESTED IN is NOT CONSISTENT with the changes that are common. "LIFE FLOURISHED" on earth with the fewest number of hoomans around.

Any denier/nay sayer/turd polisher out there: raise your hand....will life/earth flourish when the sea level rises 3 feet?
Answer: of course it will. Now, how many cities will continue business as usual? AND AGAIN: sea level rise is only one of dozens of issues that will be acting together with all the other single issues: New York may have the money to build a 4 foot sea wall the length of the Great Wall of China but...…...3 feet sea rise, high tide, big storm......any single breach of that wall and New York becomes the Ninth district or Fukashima. Doesn't matter at all what the "average" sea level is.....its the rare/odd/"not predicted" one in a thousand years Storm that does your city in...……………….and life still flourishes.

No ice caps = shallower temp gradient. So what?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:24 pm

…………….also note...……..I just assume that if 1000ppm is reached that the correlated weather/climate conditions of past ages will not be present...………..there is LAG TIME. we are in LAG TIME RIGHT NOW.Hoomans just not appreciative of lag time.....the future beyond lunch.

Silly hoomans. "We can't fix AGW in one week for minimal cost, so: there just isn't anything we can do about it." Heard twice over the past weekend.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:36 pm

The one ina thousand year storm is a reality now and has always been. If sea levels rise one meter (and they will), building sea walls will happen. The sea walls will be a lot higher than one meter, because people are not stupid, and the occasional major storm will be stopped from causing too much destruction.

Some land will be lost away from big cities, because you cannot build sea walls all around a continent. But that just means people have to rebuild on higher ground. Food is not a problem. Using the best technology, even today, the average adult can be fed on 100 square meters of crops. Those crops will be bred or genetically engineered to thrive in the new, warmer conditions.

Again, I predict that, despite the problems of global warming, the long term trend to greater prosperity and better human welfare, will continue.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:28 am

lance: that is a rosy picture addressing an extreme/expensive/difficult solution to only one element of the AGW quagmire we are creating. Just add another few dozen. ……………...but you have little to no appreciation of risk, so probably not a worthwhile exercise. Afterall, the data shows the...……………………...xxxxxxxha, ha...…..I was going to make a little joke about number of deaths from AGW....but, there actually have been 10's of thousands so far. Heat, drought, revolutions and war...… funny ain't so funny.

But life is flourishing and New York subways haven't washed out yet.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:26 am

Actually, no one has the vaguest idea of deaths from global warming to date. There have been deaths from heat waves, sure. But even top climate scientists cannot say whether those heat waves are due to global warming or not. After all, there have always been heat waves. And there are still a lot more deaths from cold snaps. The onset of respiratory ills alone lead to thousands of deaths in extra cold times. Especially the elderly and those who are immune compromised.

You say I have no appreciation of risk. Rather say that I have a good appreciation of the lack of good numbers to quantify the risk.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Gord » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:21 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:people are not stupid
HA!
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:56 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote: You say I have no appreciation of risk. Rather say that I have a good appreciation of the lack of good numbers to quantify the risk.
Ergo?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:58 pm

Average temps are going up. Maximum events are being experienced more often. More people are dying from maximum temperatures. But we can't quantify it ((of course we can....)), so we can pretend cause and effect no longer exists.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:16 pm

No, it cannot be quantified, since we do not know which extra hot event is due to global warming and which would have happened anyway.

There is also an argument that global warming is actually saving lives, since cold snaps kill more people that heat waves. Fewer cold snaps means fewer lives lost.

None of this is an argument to tolerate global warming. Humanity needs to take action to mitigate climate change, and also action to adapt to the inevitable change. This can be done. I pointed out before what happens in Darwin, Australia, where temperatures every summer exceed that which you can expect in the USA in another 100 years. The people of Darwin have adapted, and there are no heat wave deaths. Simple actions can prevent the worst effects. Mitigate and adapt.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:40 pm

You pick a base time period (say 10 years) and find the number of people (yes==the %) who died from heat stroke/exhaustion.

In subsequent years, every death over that average is caused by AGW...……………………...or, given I'm not a statistician....that will be close enough. Only a quibbler will throw in other relevant factors.

"We can't tell....." ===> The whine of those who don't want to tell...………….
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:04 am

It is not that easy, Bobbo. It is a signal versus noise problem in statistics.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:42 am

Ok Lance: is more people dying from increasing warming a signal or a noise? Or is it the best statistical analysis available that amounts to "proof" only as the p factor is raised from 0?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:29 am

Warming is real, Bobbo. You do not need to use deaths from heat stroke as evidence. It is difficult to tell what is signal and what is noise in this case. Much easier to use the straight temperature readings over many decades, which are impossible to deny.

Since warming also reduces deaths from cold snaps, the argument that global warming is killing more people is very shakey.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:21 am

Ha, ha...…....poor Lance. Can't keep track of what the subject is.

Care to guess? What was death from heat stroke evidence responding to?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:13 am

Death from heat stroke happens when people who are not prepared for high temperatures experience them. That may be a result of global warming, or may be due to simple and normal weather variation. It is not possible to determine which.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:05 am

Simple weather variation is assumed to be a constant DURNING and then after the base line period is set. so....again, you deny statistical analysis AFTER taking me to task that it was valid?

Which is it Lance? or do you just want to keep on flip flopping depending on your desired outcome?
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:26 am

Bobbo

Statistical analysis is not able to return a definitive answer on this one. Normally, you need a minimum of 20 data points. Meaning at least 20 heat waves causing death. Has not happened.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:57 pm

Making up a lack of data points huh? Lance...…….you are just being silly. You aren't even following what was posted.

Not worth responding to further.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:50 pm

Bobbo

You need to learn to THINK.
We are not engaged in an argument about whether global warming is real. We both know it is. This is about the scientific significance of a small number of heat waves. There are simply too few to use them as evidence. Which does not matter, since there is sufficient other evidence.

The thing that annoys me about your arguments most is that you keep insisting this is an extinction event for humanity, in the total absense of any credible evidence. Since I have a major distaste for horrible bull-{!#%@}, this irks me.

There are people on this planet who routinely (every summer) experience temperatures up to and even over 50 Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). They do not become extinct. Most of the planet, even with reasonably high global warming, will not experience temperatures that high. So why in Finagles name do you think it becomes an extinction event ?

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:49 am

Excuse me Lance but I gave you the method to show that even small numbers, EG: one, can be "evidenced" as the product of AGW.

PROVING multi-causal complex events down to ONE VARIABLE: conceptually impossible as the variables cannot be controlled. In the case of AGW: there is no duplicate of Earth to run variables on. You recall Jim Steele denying your proof/explanation of co2 warming? He and other deniers and YOU used the same manipulation. Denial of "the best evidence" available looking for certainty before you accept common sense.

As the world heats up: what would prevent additional heat stroke deaths????????????????

Stop denying your own common sense.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:55 am

Additional heat stroke deaths?

Sure, they happen, just as cold snaps cause numerous cold snap deaths. The key is adaptation. People who live in cold places use heaters and warm clothes. People who live in hot places do not suffer heat stroke deaths, because they adapt. E.g.. They drink more and spend more time in the shade, or use air conditioning. The Tuareg, who suffer from extreme heat events, wear loose robes that stop the sun and permit air flow inside the clothes. In addition, our bodies adapt.

A hotter world, once people have adapted, should not cause any more heat waves deaths than the present world.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:15 am

…….yep, because everyone has access to the technology and life style as do the richest people in the world.

What did I see just last night: AGW causing drought and by 2050 , 50% of Africans will have to deal with water shortages for the first time. I know.....just go to 7-11 and buy a case of spring water.

Adapt.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:36 am

Interestingly, Bobbo, the people who currently live in the world's hottest climates and totally fail to die from it, are also the people with LEAST access to technology.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:58 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Interestingly, Bobbo, the people who currently live in the world's hottest climates and totally fail to die from it, are also the people with LEAST access to technology.
false.
Heat death is a real issue in hot climes, especially for the poor living in slums. And it is expected to get much worse.
Children and elderly are, of course, the most vulnerable.
And this doesn't even address the results of more heat such as less water, failed harvests, dying cattle, more pests that can transmit diseases.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:42 am

Yes, EM. Poverty kills.

That is why we must address poverty and do whatever we can to increase wealth in poor nations. Poverty, though, is not a consequence of global warming.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:06 am

Lance, don't play dumb.
The poor in Mexico and Sao Paulo die of heat, and the poor in Moscow die of cold - but the poor in more moderate cliems usually do not.
It's the climate, st*$&#.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:15 am

No.

The poor in Mexico and Sao Paolo die of a range of things, mainly disease and hunger. Not heat.

Nothing new here. The poor in England in Victorian times died of the same things. Even the diseases were the same. (In Shakespeare's time, malaria was known as the ague, and was very common.) Malaria, pneumonia and tuberculosis were major problems and killers in England and in North America until more recent times, and more recently, obstructive cardiac failure.

Ironically, the disease that kills the most people in poor nations is the same disease that wiped the board with North Americans. Heart disease. Of infectious ills, the worst is lung infections, including TB and pneumonia. The same as western nations until recently.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:22 am

Lance, you want to go on record that no more people in Mexico die of heat than they do in Estonia?

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:25 am

I would need to see the data, and I bet you do not have it. I also bet that very, very few people die in Mexico of heat. Heat itself is not a killer, unless you are not adapted to it.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:44 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:I would need to see the data, and I bet you do not have it. I also bet that very, very few people die in Mexico of heat. Heat itself is not a killer, unless you are not adapted to it.
It is the no.1 cause of death for immigrants trying to get illegally into the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrant_d ... tes_border

Hope you have some sense to admit you are wrong.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by OlegTheBatty » Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:51 pm

Major heat wave die-offs.

European cold wave deaths ~ 70

European heat wave deaths ~ 70,000.

The notion that heat waves and cold snaps are equally deadly is hogwash. Keep in mind that cold snap deaths tend to be inflated by disease transmission due to people being cooped up together indoors, while heat deaths are inflated by acceleration - that is, some of the deaths are a hastening of deaths in sick people who were going to die soon anyway. Heat wave die-offs are typically followed by a temporary decrease in death rates.

Heat wave deaths leave cold snap deaths in the dust.

Lance is right about one thing, though - acclimation does make a significant difference.
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:10 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Interestingly, Bobbo, the people who currently live in the world's hottest climates and totally fail to die from it, are also the people with LEAST access to technology.
Wut?????
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:21 pm

EM

I am willing to accept that heat stroke is the major killer of illegal immigrants sneaking into the USA. However, the reason for this is that they are not prepared. With a little preparation that ceases to be a problem.

Oleg.
You cannot eliminate infection for deaths in cold snaps. If a person dies as a result of a cold snap, the mechanism (influenza, pneumonia etc) does not obviate the fact they would have lived if it had stayed warm. Sure, deaths from hypothermia during cold snaps are not too high, but getting chilled combined with a few pathogens and suddenly it is a megadeath situation. In the USA alone, there are over 36,000 influenza deaths each year, mostly in winter. Globally, there are close to 650,000 influenza related deaths each year. A reasonable percentage of these are contracted during cold snaps.

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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:19 pm

Lance: do you see the conflicting standard you just posted for deaths from heat vs deaths from cold?

Just look.
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Lance Kennedy
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Re: 1000ppm by 2100?==>We're All Gonna Die!!

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:15 pm

Both are problems when they arise. I am just pointing out the stupidity of emphasizing heat deaths. There are lot more deaths from cold snaps than heat waves. Global warming will reduce the number of cold snaps, and as such, it can be argued that it will save lives.

This is not my position. But I have a great dislike of bull-{!#%@}, and some of the "We are all gonna die due to heat waves " argument is total bull-{!#%@}. Both cold snaps and heat waves can be survived without problems if you are prepared for them.