Do record lows mean global cooling?

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Gord » Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:31 am

Pyrrho wrote:Local weather != Global climate. Weather is a function of climate; that unusual weather patterns emerge may be indicators of climate change...even if it snows in the Sahara.
Damn straight.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ ... -1.3947309
Winnipeg warms up with record January thaw

...As of 11 a.m. on Sunday, Winnipeg had 55 hours above 0 C, setting a new record for a warm spell....

...Normal temperatures for this time of year are a high of –13 C and a low of –23 C.
It's just local weather.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by robinson » Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:06 pm

Pyrrho wrote:Local weather != Global climate. Weather is a function of climate; that unusual weather patterns emerge may be indicators of climate change...even if it snows in the Sahara.
Yes, snow in the Sahara would be an indicator of climate change. If it starts snowing in the Sahara regularly, that would be a change.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:21 pm

Gord wrote: It's just local weather.
My global cooling examples are meant to illustrate a glaring point. When it is a heatwave, drought or no snow, the headlines scream its the "new normal", its climate change. None of the warming adherents criticize such hype as "its just weather."

But when we experience the opposite more snow or more cold, only then is it "just weather"

Why such a disconnect?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by robinson » Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:52 pm

JIm Steele wrote:But when we experience the opposite more snow or more cold, only then is it "just weather"
Even that is now blamed on global warming. No mater what actually happens, it's global warming.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:55 pm

JIm Steele wrote:
Gord wrote: It's just local weather.
My global cooling examples are meant to illustrate a glaring point. When it is a heatwave, drought or no snow, the headlines scream its the "new normal", its climate change. None of the warming adherents criticize such hype as "its just weather."

But when we experience the opposite more snow or more cold, only then is it "just weather"

Why such a disconnect?
Consistent terminology/orientation is always more accurate but indeed in popular parlance, when WEATHER is consistent with global warming, it makes sense to call it the new normal (until it gets even worse) unless that is what is meant as in "its getting hotter" whereas AGAIN IN POPULAR PARLANCE if the weather is uncommonly cold and against the warming trend we are in then that is inconsistent with the notion that its getting warmer..... so dismissing it as "just weather" is understandable.

Too many people don't understand, or are easily mislead by science FUD Masters, that AVERAGE GLOBAL WARMING will create areas and periods of time that are colder than historically experienced.

You know....... some people just don't get it. They don't have the basic tools to understand the polar cooling effect.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by robinson » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:36 pm

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:22 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:.. some people just don't get it. They don't have the basic tools to understand the polar cooling effect.

Indeed. Its called extreme cherry picking! Highlighting the weather that fits your theory as climate change while dismissing contrary weather that contradicts climate predictions as just weather, is the most glaring example of climate cherry picking!

Of course varying weather can be attributed to natural variability. But what the warmunistas fail to understand is natural variability can cause warm spikes in a cooling trend or cold spikes in a warming trend. What are we observing?

The last 6 thousand years clearly shows warm spikes about every 1000 years despite a longterm cooling trend. The long LIttle Ice Age is the real climate anomaly over the past 10,000 years, not our current warm spike.

Image

The Dansgard Oeschger events are another well documented series of warm spikes that happened as the earth cooled into the maximum cold of the Last Ice age

Image

A good explanation for the Dansgard Oeschger events can be read at the link below, and the explanation for those warm spikes is consistent with what we have observed since 1900. And the D-O warm spikes were independent of CO2 and temperartures rose by 5 to 15C in a matter of a few decades or less. Only from these longterm perspectives can we understand real climate change versus weather.

http://landscapesandcycles.net/arctic-i ... event.html
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by robinson » Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:52 pm

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:03 am

JIm Steele wrote:Of course varying weather can be attributed to natural variability.
Ummm.... can it also be attributed to increasing % of green house gases in the atmosphere? Or is that off the table?

since BOTH are in operation all the time, how to tell which is taking control???????? could it be MATHS and averages?????

Or am I missing the chimera of choice?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:44 pm

JIm Steele wrote:Of course varying weather can be attributed to natural variability. But what the warmunistas fail to understand is natural variability can cause warm spikes in a cooling trend or cold spikes in a warming trend. What are we observing?

Bobbo, you only quoted part of my sentence, and then oddly repeated the question I've asked on this forum ever since I first posted, aframing it as if I hadnt ever asked the question.

What are we observing? and how do we separate natural variability from CO2 induced change? (or as you restated, "who is in control")

Absolutely CO2 is in play, but to what degree? We only have hypotheses and speculation that we will see greater effects of CO2 in the future? That is an untestable theory in our present time. However we do have records of natural variability which can delineate the bounds of natural caused change. Once those boundaries are established, we can then suggest CO2's contribution. We can look back in time and test the CO2 theory, but there is the problem of defining the proper time framework. So lets look at seveal.

If we look at hundred's of thousands of years, then past interglacials were warmer than our current interglacial, thus negligible effects from today's CO2.

If based on just the last 100,000 years, the rapid warming during the 25 D-O events suggests natural variability creates warm spike far greater than to day despite very low CO2 concentrations.

If we look at frameworks of the last 6000 years we see a cooling trend, despite a slight rise in CO2, and warm spikes like the Medeival WArm Period that do not correlate with CO2.

If we look at the last 150 years as we rebounded from the Little Ice Age, we see a warming spike peaking around 1940 recorded in USA and Greenland instruments, in tree rings and in ice cores, and in reduced Arctic sea ice of the 30s, again suggesting no correlation with CO2. To get a correlation with CO2 during this century , climate scientists discussed getting rid of the warm blips. Again suggesting CO2 warming theory has some huge holes, and little support in the past cliamte.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:28 pm

You aren't including the interactive effect of green house gases at ALL LEVELS?

Thats exactly what the models of the IPCC do. Still not enough "knowledge" nor computing power, but still: its the IPCC that provides "the best guess available."

Waiting for all doubt to be removed.............not very pragmatic.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:56 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Waiting for all doubt to be removed.............not very pragmatic.
Please do not put false words in my mouth or fabricate my intentions. In doing so you misrepresent my arguments.

Examining historical climate change reveals a multitude of warm events exceeding our modern warmth yet at much lower levels of CO2. The historical evidence includes CO2. But that historical evidence suggests CO2 is more of a minor player relative to natural climate change. That historical evidence is overwhelming but perhaps you are waiting for all doubts to be removed regards the power of natural climate change?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:56 am

Please do not put false words in my mouth or fabricate my intentions. In doing so you misrepresent my arguments.
I totally agree, except.... where/when/how was that done? Usually, thats done by quoting someone. My comment of "Waiting for all doubt to be removed.............not very pragmatic." is my critique of your reliance on natural cycles to explain current climate conditions and projection of same into the future. NOT the same thing at all.


But to your notice of higher temps with lower co2 in the past:
What were those events? High methane? Higher Nitrogen?? More water vapor???? You know: lots of variables....not just carbon. And arm chair theorizing without powerful super computers running a few months to model things out is nothing more than pure speculation.

Its in my memory a few years ago I read that absent global warming going on now due to co2, the "natural cycle" would have us cooling off right now. This is just another way of trying to emphasize that the IPCC has models AS BEST AS ANYONE CAN what the climate should be with all the known natural processes involved. Then finds that the earth is warming. The only identified variable of consequence for this is co2.

Like evolutionary theory, AGW is so well supported that when you deny it, you deny science. I don't "know" climate science. On scientific issues I don't "know" about, I rely on the experts. I rely on formal position papers from scientific societies. I can always be wrong............and when the CONSENSUS OF QUALIFIED SCIENTISTS change their best guess......... so will I. Its how science corrects itself and keeps advancing the knowledge of mankind.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:11 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:.and when the CONSENSUS OF QUALIFIED SCIENTISTS change their best guess......... so will I. Its how science corrects itself and keeps advancing the knowledge of mankind.
ABSOLUTELY Wrong. Science corrects itself when individuals correct the consensus. Those people get the Nobel Prizes. In contrast it was the consensus that wrote "A Hundred Against Einstein". It was the consensus that had Nobel Dan Schectman thrown out of his lab simply because he reported his observation of quasi-crystals.

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual." Galileo



It is safe to echo a consensus opinion. It doesn't require critical thinking. One only needs to follow the herd no matter how many contradictions
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:43 pm

Sounds like a timing issue to me...... or cherry picking. How many "against the qualified consensus nay sayers" examples do we have that turn out to be right compared to those who turn out to be wrong?

Being wrong is so prevalent as to perhaps drop out of consciousness due to its familiarity?

EG.... using your example:..... well, don't know about quasi crystals. But even today....how many billions of people contend against the Galileo Consensus of Qualified Scientists?..... and they are all wrong.....

Yes....the consensus is MEANT TO BE CHALLENGED by the better ideas of one or two.....and such GOOD IDEAS become the new consensus as they make rational arguments, propose a competing theory, and make new predictions...and all are proven to be a better explanation. BAD IDEAS...proposed by the great majority... are left in the dustbin.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Paul Anthony » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:00 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Sounds like a timing issue to me...... or cherry picking. How many "against the qualified consensus nay sayers" examples do we have that turn out to be right compared to those who turn out to be wrong?

Being wrong is so prevalent as to perhaps drop out of consciousness due to its familiarity?

EG.... using your example:..... well, don't know about quasi crystals. But even today....how many billions of people contend against the Galileo Consensus of Qualified Scientists?..... and they are all wrong.....

Yes....the consensus is MEANT TO BE CHALLENGED by the better ideas of one or two.....and such GOOD IDEAS become the new consensus as they make rational arguments, propose a competing theory, and make new predictions...and all are proven to be a better explanation. BAD IDEAS...proposed by the great majority... are left in the dustbin.
Or are bought off by the powers that be.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:38 pm

No Paul.... and JS: EVERYTHING you believe today as a given or demonstrably true was once believed by "everyone" to be wrong or something else. It takes time and challenge for the group consensus to form.... while many will for religious, cultural, or for profit reasons claim the truth is otherwise.

Take Galileo...He was one man (lets just say) who stood against the majority. At that time, without a telescope to look through myself... you know... just the internet as it was back then==>I would have agreed with the majority that the Earth was the center of the Celestial Sky. but as the majority changed...so would I. Today: very few support Sun Centered Universe...I assume there are some? So....anyone TODAY wishing to argue the Earth Centered Universe can use all the same "arguments" you are doing now: Only individuals not bought off by the Earth Centered Conspirators "know" the truth?=======I don't think so.

And the same with all the arguments that go against the majority....of "well settled and supported" opinion. Those hardly ever are overturned...more so, just further refined or recast into another context. EG: Newtonian Physics still works and is valid for many applications. Same with Flat Maps and so on. NOT SO: with co2 rising concentrations. (ftn#1)

As stated: the key issue for AGW is that only partial pictures are considered and then argued that they represent the whole. They don't.

Its really quite simple.

Ftn:1==watching Youtube, just saw Brian Cox say that without co2 in the atmosphere, Earth would right now be a frozen ball. Same with Venus he said (that struck me as wrong....thinking Venus is close enough for direct heat, but thats what I think he said) which is now nearly a molten ball because of co2: so.... we have a strong correlation of co2 concentration to atmospheric/planetary temps. Course: thats not proof. Buts its WHOLE SYSTEM measurement or representation rather than partial and cherry picked. A chimera if you will.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:44 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: the key issue for AGW is that only partial pictures are considered and then argued that they represent the whole. They don't.

Its really quite simple.
Why do you insist on saying the problem is partial pictures (regional climate change that contradict CO2 theory I assume) "are argued as "representing the whole"??? That has never been the argument. Ever! The argument is 1) they CONTRIBUTE to the whole and 2) they run contrary to CO2 predictions. If you argue there is a global effect, then you must expect regional climates to affected accordingly. When regions dont act as predicted, then any good scientist will ask why? And how powerful are the other dynamics that cause change that is contrary to the predicted CO2 effect.

One way around that conundrum has been to argue CO2 causes everything. Heat waves and cold, more snow and less, ....dead kittens and prostitution, etc. etc.

And again the only "whole" is a graph of average temperature that is and can only be a chimera of different dynamics. And we know the old saying about statistics. There are ...., more.... and then there's statistics.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:57 pm

JS: are you saying "the model" (there are and have been many and various models...constantly updated and tweaked always looking for more power and more variables as they become understood and subject to modelling) predicts there will be warming constantly and everywhere? Otherwise, what you say makes no sense. Global Warming was the first popular phrase to be used to describe AGW/CC because that is the general direction and concern, but too many people criticized the model just as you say: "Hey! Look at this snowball if just got outside in June. Its never been this cold here."==and so like flash floods in the desert, it had to be explained that what is generally true (getting warmer) will have exceptions (instances of colder weather) that all add into the average: THE AVERAGE: the mean of various extremes...and the average keeps going up even with records colds here and there.

so...when you point out some area of cold or extended snow coverage: it means NOTHING....until put through and calculated as part of the Global Average. All this leading to the popular nomenclature changing to say the same thing: Climate Change to try and avoid the using exceptions to mischaracterize the whole.

And you are back to the chimera of average temperatures being a chimera of different dynamics. Well, lets go with that. What else is your measurement of smaller areas and time spans except the very same thing except on a smaller scale? This chaos factor as we add up towards the global climate system is what makes the subject so hard: not that you can't track "averages" of the numbers available over time. You do know that even an "errant system" can show reliable trends as the supposed mistakes/errors tend to drop out or have not effect over time? This is for "consistent errors" not errors that are variable...or even manipulated.

"And thats why" I use sea level as my easy to understand proxy of the whole....... it keeps going up.

Really, its all very basic.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:23 pm

bobbo its not clear what you are talking about. Could you please restate what your issue is?

And regards sea level, you have been shown several times why sea level change is not evidence of a CO2 connection.Furthermore the rate of change for the past century has been about the same despite rising CO2. Again if you want to discuss all the factors affecting sea level, start a thread and state why you believe sea level is evidence for CO2 warming.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:02 am

Do increasing incidents of record snowfalls, in contrast to CO2 climate scientists who stated we will "no longer know what snow is" , provide enough evidence that speculations of CO2 climate scientists are full of sh*t???

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... -2016-2017
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:33 pm

From the NWS Jackson MS‏. @NWSJacksonMS
We're up to 5.1 inches of snowfall officially in Jackson. That's enough for 6th most all-time in one day. The most in December since 1929.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:44 pm

Best/Worst example of Cherry Picking there could possibly be........in addition to a demonstrable failure to understand the basic mechanisms of climate vis a vis rain and snow and temps as the Earth warms. And as you do know these basic mechanisms................just what kind of intentional activity is taking place here?

Isn't it about time for you to post your proof/analysis of whatever it was? "I'll post back in two weeks..............." and just like Trump: what you got is: NOTHING.

Ha, ha...............its like a sock puppet.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:25 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Best/Worst example of Cherry Picking there could possibly be......
Of course it is. But paranoid climate alarmists don't smell their own stink whenever the cherry picking supports their beliefs in catastrophic warming. For example no one objected to a recent post
Researchers from Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report in the journal Nature Climate Change that extreme cyclones that formed in the Arabian Sea for the first time in 2014 are the result of global warming
Furthermore it was climate scientists who hyped CAGW saying soon children won't know what snow is.

I like to highlight those climate scientists failed sensationalist predictions
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:30 pm

No Link. Thats what Cherry Pickers do.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:33 pm

One of the biggest snowfalls in history just walloped the Texas gulf coast and has brought Houston to a crawl.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:37 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:No Link. Thats what Cherry Pickers do.
No Links for You!

You are the supreme cherry picker. Ive demanded links for your dishonest personal attacks and bogus science but you refuse to abide.

So No Links For You!
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:38 pm

Damn those chimeras.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:39 pm

No Links pour moi? Ha, ha........who should be embarassed you might be right that I'm the only one who reads your posts?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:31 am

New Orleans' last snowfall, in 2004, was a dusting that came nine months before Hurricane Katrina struck. The record snowfall for the city is about 5 inches, recorded Dec. 30, 1963. The weather service said the previous earliest date for measurable snowfall in New Orleans was Dec. 22,


Wow Snow is falling 2 weeks earlier! Must be global warming, eh? ROTFLMAO!
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:35 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:I'm the only one who reads your posts?
No! You are the only one who doesn't mind making mindless failed attempts to refute the solid science have posted.
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual." Galileo

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:55 am

Try to focus Jimbo: the issue that ALL YOUR READERS SUFFER FROM (if there are any)...........is your very consistent refusal to provide links. Its like you are hiding any of the negative information in the general articles you cherrypick your data from.

What you do is plain to see.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by xouper » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:33 am

Jim Steele wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:I'm the only one who reads your posts?
No!
True.

Booboo is not the only one who reads Jim's posts.

I appreciate that Jim posts stuff that the alarmists don't want me to read.

And then I will make up my own mind after weighing evidence from all sides, like a good skeptic should do.

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:53 pm

...........and you weight the AGW side at 10,000 pounds and the Science Denying side at .32 ounces and decide to become a Denier????

.............................thats one heavy thumb.

maybe if you had a link or two to read, you could find some more weight?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by xouper » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:31 pm

bobbo_the_Pathological_Liar wrote:...........and you weight the AGW side at 10,000 pounds and the Science Denying side at .32 ounces and decide to become a Denier????

.............................thats one heavy thumb.

maybe if you had a link or two to read, you could find some more weight?
For the record, what booboo claims about me is false.

But that pretty much goes without saying since everyone here already knows booboo is troll and a pathological liar.

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:43 pm

OK X==what is your theory to what we should expect as we pump more and more co2 into the atmosphere?
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:49 pm

Weather.com reports

Amazingly, 0.3 inches of snow fell in Brownsville, Texas, which tied a 135-year-old record low temperature for Dec. 8 by dropping down to 34 degrees.
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual." Galileo

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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:51 pm

........................and you agree don't you Jimbo that more likely than not that snow fall is a consequence of AGW.....right? =====> aka "Changing weather patterns." I know an expert like yourself would not miss the connection.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:46 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:.I know an expert like yourself would not miss the connection.

ROTFLMAO BOOBO did you make the connection that it was a cold temperature record!! Do you think warming cause record cold. ROTFLMAO

to repeat with a size that might help a 135-year-old record low temperature for Dec. 8 by dropping down to 34 degrees.
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Re: Do record lows mean global cooling?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm

Jim Steele wrote: ROTFLMAO BOOBO did you make the connection that it was a cold temperature record!! Do you think warming cause record cold. ROTFLMAO
Gee.............this is my first time recognition that you might have some kind of quite narrow brain injury/birth defect where you cannot process that AGW WILL RESULT in some areas getting colder than before. This inability to "handle" such a surface incongruity does explain many of your positions.

Amusing. Jimbo: sound it out.
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