Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Heated discussions on a hot topic.
User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their l

Post by robinson » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:07 pm

As winter begins in the NH, the true horror of a solar dominated climate system might be going to hit home this year.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
Has No Life
Posts: 12019
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their l

Post by OlegTheBatty » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:48 pm

robinson wrote:As winter begins in the NH, the true horror of a solar dominated climate system might be going to hit home this year.
I didn't think New Hampshire winters were all that bad, but I guess it's what your're used to.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

.......................Doesn't matter how often I'm proved wrong.................... ~ bobbo the pragmatist

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:33 am

I did a post here way back, suggesting some people think the world experienced so much cold weather during the N hemisphere winter as to suggest there wasn't any global warming, and their idea of the world must be the bit between the Nth Atlantic and Nth Pacific - but the image didn't appear correctly (without which it failed to make the point very well)

Image

That doesn't look like warming had stopped. Last year?

Image

This year looks likely to exceed 2015 for warming by a significant margin.

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
Has No Life
Posts: 12019
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by OlegTheBatty » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:40 pm

Ken Fabos wrote:I did a post here way back, suggesting some people think the world experienced so much cold weather during the N hemisphere winter as to suggest there wasn't any global warming, and their idea of the world must be the bit between the Nth Atlantic and Nth Pacific - but the image didn't appear correctly (without which it failed to make the point very well)

Image

That doesn't look like warming had stopped. Last year?

Image

This year looks likely to exceed 2015 for warming by a significant margin.
Your links give me a 404 error.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

.......................Doesn't matter how often I'm proved wrong.................... ~ bobbo the pragmatist

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:19 am

OlegTheBatty - they do show correctly when I open this page. I have no idea why the image I attempted way back in this thread didn't display, nor why it happened again - but not to everyone. Both clearly show that regions showing lower than average for the base period are a relatively small portion of the globe and are greatly exceeded by regions showing higher than average. Whether changes to the AMOC are natural variation, AGW driven or a bit of both isn't certain but as a broad swipe at the existence or seriousness of climate change having cold - even record cold - over parts of the world simultaneously with record warmth over far larger parts sure doesn't negate the fundamental science telling us that messing with the GHG concentrations of the atmosphere has serious consequences.

Link to first image - DEC-JAN-FEB 2014
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/N ... /amaps.png

Link to second image - Annual D-N 2015
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/N ... /amaps.png

User avatar
Gord
Obnoxious Weed
Posts: 35098
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:44 am
Custom Title: prostrate spurge
Location: Transcona

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Gord » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:48 am

I'm with Oleg, I can't see the images. Not even with the direct links. The website says, "Not found."
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE
Is Trump in jail yet?

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:47 pm

Gord, OlegTheBatty, they do show correctly either way on my screen and the forum doesn't appear to support copy and paste of images as an alternative. Unless someone can suggest an alternative to the insert image option I will have to leave it as it is.

The images came from GISS, where the user can choose the time period to be displayed.

User avatar
Monster
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5586
Joined: Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:57 pm
Location: Tarrytown, NY, USA

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Monster » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:08 pm

Ken Fabos wrote:Gord, OlegTheBatty, they do show correctly either way on my screen and the forum doesn't appear to support copy and paste of images as an alternative. Unless someone can suggest an alternative to the insert image option I will have to leave it as it is.

The images came from GISS, where the user can choose the time period to be displayed.
Your images are generated according to criteria. I see the word "tmp" in your image links, which connote that the images are intended to be short lived.

You should probably save the images in question and upload them here or to an image hosting service.
Listening twice as much as you speak is a sign of wisdom.

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:21 am

Monster, by uploading I'm thinking this must mean as an attachment. I'm not convinced it's because the images are short lived that they aren't displaying - or else they wouldn't appear without problem on this newly refreshed page that I'm currently looking at.

The earlier NH Winter 2014 temperature map - as an attachment -
NH winter 2014.png
Let's see if it's visible this time!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:49 pm

The images you used before are temp files, they may appear for you (from your cache) but will never be useful as public images. So as you did, save and upload them. You used to be able to link to a page that generated them, but the "update" GISS made removed that function.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:51 pm

Global warming should look like this

Image

Global warming will never appear like this


Image
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:54 pm

I used twenty year trends, but it also shows up in thirty year trends, and even a hundred year trend. The planet might be warming, but it's not from an enhanced greenhouse effect, that much is obvious to a scientist.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:13 pm

It's called variability - single months, single seasons, single years and even single decades can see a lot of variation that can see large areas experience lower than long term average temperatures. As they can and do show periods of higher than the long term average as well as the combination of long term average and warming. Short term periods certainly can look like the maps above in the presence of ongoing global warming but in absence of global warming ongoing changes to ocean heat content - which don't show in the maps above - will never look like this -

image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their l

Post by robinson » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:30 pm

robinson wrote:What matters for climate change is long term data. If an area has a trend of cooling or warming, after a period of time you can say the climate seems to be changing in that location. In the practical real world, if you predict, over a long time period, that winters will be warmer, due to theoretical climate change, based on CO2, and the winters get colder, in the real world you have to admit the theory is not correct.

This is science. You don't take evidence that shows your theory is wrong, like colder winters, in some cases much much colder, record cold, and then claim that also means you are right.
But of course it's become obvious it's not actually science, or at least not any sort of science that follows scientific principles.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:36 pm

re robinson...."its not science"...I must be slowing down because I can't even figure out what he claims is not science. As close as I get: that some kind of assumed data presentation "should be" different than what it is?

Makes NO SENSE at all.

Science is Science. Science can be wrong ...... but is self correcting. Deniers of Science LOVE to get stuck on the mistakes, and miss the corrections.

Know what I mean?
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:40 pm

What the alarmist can't fathom is that objections to a theory (the theory of greenhouse gases) does not mean the physics of greenhouse gases is being challenged, it means the predictions of the theory are not true, which is how we either reject or modify a theory. A theory that can't predict anything isn't a theory, it's not scientific.

What the alarm ringers are doing is now trying to say colder winters for most of the NH is a result of global warming. If this is true (and there is no consensus that it is) then it means the old theory was wrong. There is no getting around it, no amount of verbal gymnastics or rhetoric changes reality, except in a believers own mind.

But if it is true, and an enhanced greenhouse effect is causing much colder NH winters, with more snow and dangerous weather, that just means the greenhouse theory is/was wrong about that. This inability to admit anything has been wrong is a hallmark of the alarm ringers, who do not realize it weakens their case, it does not do them any benefit to act as if they are infallible, and all opposition is only political.

I fully support the goals of the alarm ringers, reducing emissions and pollution, finding and using alternatives to fossil fuels, as well as planting more forests, not wiping them off the face of the planet. Stopping coal mining and burning, protecting reefs and wildlife, stopping the unbelievable carnage modern man does to the natural world.

But my views on what should be done are not going to stop me from looking at the facts of the matter.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:56 pm

robinson....thanks for that. I see you might not be pure troll, but sincerely think you have something to offer?

While doubtful, I'll play along while waiting for the cappuccino to come to temp:
it means the predictions of the theory are not true, which is how we either reject or modify a theory. A theory that can't predict anything isn't a theory, it's not scientific.
I agree, I assume everyone does????

But you are making an error all so common to the Deniers: confusing weather with climate. Take cold winters...even if true it does not debunk the application of "the theory of green house gases."....which by the way is a real hoot. There are green house gases and BY DEFINITION they heat up the atmosphere of which they are a part. What is your proposed mechanism for how increased co2 is not heating our atmosphere which would be a negation of that theory?????

To my review......NO science denier ever has an alternate explanation....all they do is missapply the data conflating a blip, a zig or a zag for the total system average....such as confusing weather with climate.

You can cherry pick and misapply the real science but until you have an alternative theory....you really have nothing.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Gawdzilla Sama
Real Skeptic
Posts: 24016
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:11 am
Custom Title: Deadly but evil.

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:46 pm

Chachacha wrote:"Oh, thweet mythtery of wife, at waft I've found you!"
WWII Resources. Primary sources.
The Myths of Pearl Harbor. Demythologizing the attack.
Hyperwar. Hypertext history of the Second World War.
The greatest place to work in the entire United States.

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:52 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: But you are making an error all so common to the Deniers: confusing weather with climate.


Don't be ignorant.
Polar vortex shifting due to climate change, extending winter, study finds
The study published in Nature Climate Change last week found the stratospheric polar vortex has changed position while weakening over the past three decades. The net result has been to increase delivery of cold air into parts of Eurasia and North America, particularly in late winter and early spring.
Three decades of colder winters isn't weather.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:55 pm

Published January 13, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, this new research suggests that the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades could be explained by warmer temperatures in the autumn having a marked effect on normal weather patterns, causing temperatures to plummet in the following winter.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 193430.htm

What part of "the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades" do you think they are confusing weather with climate?

You can see why I used decades of data to show trends in the GISS graphics.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:14 pm

robinson wrote:What part of "the trend of increasingly cold winters over the past two decades" do you think they are confusing weather with climate?.
Limited geographical area. Not Climate which is global.

...............and your alternate theory to what happens when you add co2 to the atmosphere is what?
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Gord
Obnoxious Weed
Posts: 35098
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:44 am
Custom Title: prostrate spurge
Location: Transcona

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Gord » Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:45 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Limited geographical area. Not Climate which is global.
"Climate" is neither local nor global, it's regional, which is why it's spoken of in "zones".

Check this image for an example of one way to split up the globe into various regional "climate zones": http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/project ... 2011_s.jpg

That map uses 13 zones, but you can define the regions in other ways to have more or fewer. For instance, this one uses only four for simplicity's sake, and this one uses 29 for more depth and accuracy.

The worry about "climate change" is that the conditions of the area you (or someone else) is in will change, such that you will find yourself living under the conditions of another 'climate zone" -- for instance, hot arid steppes may turn into hot arid deserts, or warm humid regions may turn into hot arid steppes. Either of those would make it more difficult to grow food in those areas. Such climate change is fuelled by global warming.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE
Is Trump in jail yet?

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:48 pm

"Climate is not global but zonal." /// I agree. Just too lazy to change it. Point being: AGW is about global issues not smaller localized issues.

Its a stupid argument/discussion for anyone to have. SCIENCE: that only fools deny: AGW is here and now.

What IS open to debate that Science can only provide guidance as to the effects of, is what to do about it. Hint: nothing or deny it is our sure path to destruction.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:51 pm

Whats kinda counter intuitive to me is that the "colder weather" being experienced in certain areas IS BECAUSE the poles are heating up 6 times faster than the rest of the globe thereby weakening the jet stream thereby allowing the warmer Arctic air to wander down South. Warmer by Arctic standards, way cold by Virginia standards.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 1:53 pm

Pure coincidence.... on Democracy Now Amy is reporting headline in Washington Post that the Arctic "is an insane 36 degrees warmer than usual." Talk about your climate.

Lets google: yep. http://www.sciencealert.com/the-north-p ... -right-now

..................but its COLDER===>over there.

................................................................... and thats how the world ended. Pure human stoopidity.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:24 pm

Gord wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Limited geographical area. Not Climate which is global.
"Climate" is neither local nor global, it's regional, which is why it's spoken of in "zones".
Alarm ringers don't actually seem to know much about the science of climate, much less weather and global warming theory.

It's why I view them as suffering some sort of mass hysteria, approaching insanity.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:29 pm

The cooling trend for NH winters has become so obvious (it's hard to ignore the record snow, and the increasing trend of snow and extreme cold), the promoters of hysterical fear over climate change had to actually deal with it, after many years of denial it was happening. The elegant solution was obvious really.

Since global warming is happening, the increasing cold and snow has to be from global warming. Problem solved. When the cycle switches back to warming, that will also be global warming. It's not science, but it's effective for those with no mind of their own.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Yes...totally ignore the science/links/contradicting evidence..... and stick with stupid.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:49 pm

xkcd is an example of how alarmists just don't check, or seem to even care about facts

Image

Looking at the data, the Chicago region shows just why it was both unusual, and very very cold. In fact, the 4 months period dominated by the extreme cold of 2014 was the coldest period ever on record. The 30 year trend line included in the graph shows why it was no fluke, since it's trending colder in the region around the great lakes.

Image

One can see that it actually had never been that cold for so long. It was not imagination when people suffered from the extreme cold.

Looking at Feb 2014 and 2015, not only did that not happen "all the time" as xkcd wants you to believe, it actually hadn't ever happened before. And only once in the record was it ever colder, in 1936.

Image


The cooling trend for a large portion of the US heartland, as well as Eurasia, is something that could no longer be denied, so it was simply now blamed on global warming.

Image

I used 30 year trends, because that is called climate, not weather.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:51 pm

Now of course the true believer won't care about these facts (and those are all official sources of data), because the true believer already knows everything, so facts are the last thing that will make any difference.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:59 pm

As stated above which you HAVE TO IGNORE to maintain your position of ignorance: "Whats kinda counter intuitive to me is that the "colder weather" being experienced in certain areas IS BECAUSE the poles are heating up 6 times faster than the rest of the globe thereby weakening the jet stream thereby allowing the warmer Arctic air to wander down South. Warmer by Arctic standards, way cold by Virginia standards."

Next post is its 36 degrees warmer in Alaska. Just a simple average would make it 36 degrees colder down South.

What is it that escapes you?
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 7:56 pm

The problem with the cocksure know-it-all is that they actually don't know much if anything, certainly not this issue.

The science of this is certainly not settled, nor is it the simplistic notion alarmists bring to the table. Looking at the science shows this clearly.

1. Observed recent cooling trend in central/east
Asia and central North America is not a forced
response either to radiative forcing or sea
surface temperature.

2. Recent sea ice loss contributes to the warming
in the Arctic, but not cooling over mid-latitude
continents.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... n_CDPW.pdf

While we show much of Arctic amplification in surface warming to result from sea ice loss, we find that neither sea ice
loss nor anthropogenic forcing overall yield trends toward colder continental temperatures. An alternate explanation of the cooling is that it represents a strong articulation of internal atmospheric variability, evidence for which is derived from model data, and physical considerations.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... n_CDPW.pdf

Note the bolding (mine)

The issue of much colder NH winters (which the alarmist denied until recently) is not settled, nor is there any evidence to support the simplistic idea it is from global warming.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:00 pm

Cohen (and others now) proposed in 2007 that it might be a negative feedback, more snow in Siberia leads to a change in circulation, causing the extreme cold Eurasia and parts of North America have been suffering through. A cooling effect from the warming oceans and open water in the arctic. Note that this actually means it is colder in winter, not warmer. The persistent early snow cover causes cooling. Then the huge dumps of snow elsewhere causes more cooling, leading to very cold winters.

This may be so. It is possible this is the cause, but not settled by any means. If it is the case, the theory as it currently is used to model climate change (global warming that is), is certainly wrong. If warming causes more extreme cold and snow, global warming is not happening anything like the experts predicted it would.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

User avatar
robinson
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1053
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:55 am
Custom Title: Sometimes 0 is real cool hand

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by robinson » Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:04 pm

Theory predicts reduced snow cover, more rain in winter, less snow, as well as later frosts, and an earlier spring. Warmer winters with less snow (except for extreme regions like Greenland and alpine regions), that's what we have been told will happen, is happening.


That it is not happening is a real problem, especially when people lie about it.

That we are seeing record snow amounts for the entire globe is not predicted by any models, except Cohen who uses a different set of theoretical ideas to model the future.
"If you tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they will kill you"
-- Oscar Wilde

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:23 pm

Ha, ha.....you mischaracterize just about every thing starting with the word/concept "Theory." What you think is persuasive, I see as.... unlettered.

Just what theory do you have in mind? Be specific.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Gord
Obnoxious Weed
Posts: 35098
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:44 am
Custom Title: prostrate spurge
Location: Transcona

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Gord » Sun Nov 20, 2016 3:23 am

robinson wrote:
Gord wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Limited geographical area. Not Climate which is global.
"Climate" is neither local nor global, it's regional, which is why it's spoken of in "zones".
Alarm ringers don't actually seem to know much about the science of climate, much less weather and global warming theory.

It's why I view them as suffering some sort of mass hysteria, approaching insanity.
I didn't know you considered what you do "alarm ringing", but I guess that makes sense. :lol:
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE
Is Trump in jail yet?

Ken Fabos
Poster
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:54 pm

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Ken Fabos » Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:32 am

Interesting that GISS/Nasa show February's only for 1995/2014 compared to the 20th Century average - quite differently -
Feb 1995 to 2014.png
Compared to this -
FEB 95-14.png
Source?

Robinson, you haven't shown that what the warming world has experienced is outside the range of expected variability. Even if I were to accept the very different temperature maps you provide as accurately representing persisting temperature changes for those regions and times of year you haven't shown those are so far outside the bounds of expectations in a warming world that they are grounds to reject mainstream climate science. It shows only one month of each of those years and globally averaged annual surface temperatures are back to the middle of longer range climate projections, with this year likely to take the world higher.

It looks to me like you are claiming that regional temperatures below long term averages cannot exist in any persistent way - persistence in this case being more than a decade but so far no than two decades - without being evidence that the fundamental science on climate is deeply flawed. I don't see that you have shown this. There are known physical processes that can not only allow periods of regional cooler than average temperatures in a globally warming world, some of those can be directly associated with global warming - such as freshwater influx from glacial ice melt slowing or disrupting ocean currents or warmer temperatures in certain circumstances resulting in heavier snow falls and more snow cover, which may persist longer into Spring.

Mainstream climate science gets asked to provide projections and make predictions but credible efforts to do some come with plenty of caveats and provisos - for good reason. Those tend to get omitted for the sake of being concise and misunderstandings arise. At the too short time scales upon which I think your assertions depend, almost all mainstream climate science authorities caution against discounting the expected variability that overlays any underlying trends. The absence of such variability - warming evenly distributed around the world and through time - would be a far more remarkable kind of climate change than than AGW as it is actually expected to progress.

I'm not a credentialed scientist but I am able to understand that highly variable and unpredictable internal climate processes like ENSO greatly affect global average as well as regional temperatures from one year to the next but that these oscillations average out over a sufficiently long period. Too short - and 20 years looks borderline with respect to ENSO - and a bit more of one state over another (el Nino/La Nina) can create the false appearance of a global trend.

It's common to find temperature projections presented as "x degrees" rise per year or per decade but it is unreasonable - and an incorrect interpretation - that each decade will be expected to warm by exactly that amount and such projections are proven wrong when that doesn't occur. Climate model runs will individually show the kind of variation we should expect to see in the real world, with ups, downs, slowdowns and accelerations but an average of many climate runs - "the prediction" - will look like a nice smooth line.

A predictive model based on planetary tilt for regional temperature evolution during spring "predicts" each day will be a bit warmer than the one before it but it is generally understood that a lot of variability around that trend is what to expect; the planetary tilt theory of seasons is not proven false because a region experiences extended periods of unseasonal cool conditions or even if entire Springs are warmer or cooler than long term averages. Similarly the mainstream scientific understanding of GHG driven climate change is not proved false when global warming, as measured by surface air temperatures, proceeds unevenly at decadal resolutions; far from being unpredicted that kind of variability is exactly what is expected.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by Ken Fabos on Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Gawdzilla Sama
Real Skeptic
Posts: 24016
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2008 2:11 am
Custom Title: Deadly but evil.

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:21 pm

NYT reports Arctic ice is at a record low.

And

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... lifetimes/
Chachacha wrote:"Oh, thweet mythtery of wife, at waft I've found you!"
WWII Resources. Primary sources.
The Myths of Pearl Harbor. Demythologizing the attack.
Hyperwar. Hypertext history of the Second World War.
The greatest place to work in the entire United States.

User avatar
Paul Anthony
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2783
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:23 pm
Custom Title: The other god
Location: The desert

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by Paul Anthony » Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:21 pm

"Climate is not global, it's regional". No, it's both...or either. Depends on what's being studied. True, the climate is not the same all over the globe, but the climate in one region affects the climate in other regions. To believe otherwise, one would have to believe dual "climate controls" in cars actually make it warmer on one side of the car than on the other.

"Weather and climate are not the same". Only to the extent that weather is NOW, while climate is a term used to explain long-term trends. Weather is the immediate effect of climate.

It has been unseasonably warm here in Arizona the last few weeks. But, although the temperature has been higher than average each day, it has been lower than the record highs for each day. In other words, the climate has affected temperatures such that it is warmer than usual - on average- but not hotter than it has ever been.

But is the cause "global warming"? There have been several storms hitting the west coast that would normally travel across Arizona, bringing cooler temperatures (and possibly rain). What has changed is wind currents. Those storms have moved northeast rather than southeast, bringing cold to Colorado but not to Arizona. Is that a change in the climate or a change in weather patterns?
People who say ALWAYS and NEVER are usually wrong, part of the time.
Science answers questions, Philosophy questions answers.
Make sense, not war.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Unheard of cold, alarm ringers still clinging to their lies

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:53 pm

Put a dead toad in an old mayonnaise jar, twist the lid on, and you got a micro-climate.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?