Can climate scientists speak honestly?

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:18 pm

LINK. aka: EVERY LINK you can find will list hypothetical as a noun.........and it is common usage.

Why you so "stuck?"
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:00 am

Because it is not a noun. If you imply a noun associated, it is common to use it that way. But it is not a noun. It remains lousy grammar and a method of obfuscating meaning.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:18 am

LINK?===========WHERE IS IT?
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Tom Palven » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:02 pm

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:49 pm

Tom Palven wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:02 pm
Some breaking news:
https://www.theonion.com/scientists-tra ... 1819572838
What is the news beyond the threshold of laziness one? Its from the Onion...........is it at least climate related??...Or just the most recent actual position of the Trump Administration. aka: I hear weather changes all the time.? That sort of tear inducer????

Do your job.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:11 am

I thought it amusing. Thanks, Tom.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:42 am

What was it?
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:47 am

How's the conspiracy theory goin'?
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:15 pm

Equal time:
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:52 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:40 pm
If replacing coal with natural gas globally returns a result like the USA (in spite of Trump) between 2016 and 2017, meaning 2.7% reduction in emissions, and this is kept up for 20 years, that result is massive. Of course more is needed. Eventually even natural gas must be stopped but not until humanity can do that without causing a humanitarian disaster.

As I emphasize, no panicky and idiotic action. Just carefully planned and managed reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by replacing the stuff we can replace without nasty repercussions.
As Ronnie used to say, "well, there you go again". You predict that if we reduce the use of fossil fuels too much, it will cause "a humanitarian disaster". But if someone says we are already headed for a disaster if we keep doing what we're doing, well that's a fallacy, as in, "But when someone tries to tell me there will be 1.5 million deaths each year by 2100 due to global warming, I know they should stay off the foo foo juice."
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:29 pm

Lausten wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:52 pm
Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:40 pm
If replacing coal with natural gas globally returns a result like the USA (in spite of Trump) between 2016 and 2017, meaning 2.7% reduction in emissions, and this is kept up for 20 years, that result is massive. Of course more is needed. Eventually even natural gas must be stopped but not until humanity can do that without causing a humanitarian disaster.

As I emphasize, no panicky and idiotic action. Just carefully planned and managed reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by replacing the stuff we can replace without nasty repercussions.
As Ronnie used to say, "well, there you go again". You predict that if we reduce the use of fossil fuels too much, it will cause "a humanitarian disaster". But if someone says we are already headed for a disaster if we keep doing what we're doing, well that's a fallacy, as in, "But when someone tries to tell me there will be 1.5 million deaths each year by 2100 due to global warming, I know they should stay off the foo foo juice."
There's a false equivalency if I ever saw one. The actual course of history will likely take a saner course.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:53 pm

landrew wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:29 pm
There's a false equivalency if I ever saw one. The actual course of history will likely take a saner course.
equivalency of what? Lance claims that you can't predict large human causalities based on current data extrapolated into the future. He says it's impossible to predict what future innovations we will come up with to avert the disaster. He has used multiple examples to describe this. Then he predicts future disaster using current data. I'm using his criteria and applying it to his words.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:32 pm

I see your point, Lausten.
The difference is that I am being very general. When someone gets very specific in a prediction well into the future, they are not just skating on thin ice they are trying to skate over the liquid water. A statement like 1.5 million deaths per year in 2100 is totally insane.

My statement is that eliminating fossil fuels immediately will result in a humanitarian disaster. That is pretty close to a certainty. But we can eliminate them progressively over a longer time period, to everyone's benefit. I would expect you to support this view.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:11 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:32 pm
I see your point, Lausten.
The difference is that I am being very general. When someone gets very specific in a prediction well into the future, they are not just skating on thin ice they are trying to skate over the liquid water. A statement like 1.5 million deaths per year in 2100 is totally insane.

My statement is that eliminating fossil fuels immediately will result in a humanitarian disaster. That is pretty close to a certainty. But we can eliminate them progressively over a longer time period, to everyone's benefit. I would expect you to support this view.
I doubt that even someone like Stalin could ban the combustion of all fossil fuels. There will always be a number of applications that require it and can't be substituted by some form of renewable energy. I'm sure there's a certain tolerable level of carbon emissions that wouldn't destroy the equilibrium.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:43 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:32 pm
My statement is that eliminating fossil fuels immediately will result in a humanitarian disaster. That is pretty close to a certainty. But we can eliminate them progressively over a longer time period, to everyone's benefit. I would expect you to support this view.
I agree with the disaster part, that was predictable 30 years ago. If we would have started then, shifting tax supported subsidies for non-renewables to renewables, we might have avoided that disaster. However, we let the power structure get out of control, we let money take over politics, we let populist authoritarians take control. Now we are stuck with too much power in too few hands and the checks on that power are crumbling. It's possible that we can still remove people one by one, but getting the weapons out of the hands of the people who are threatened is not going to be easy. For now, they are keeping us sick and weak by polluting the water and air and saying health care is not a right. We might avoid the violent revolutions that have happened every other time this situation has occurred, but it will take some thinking that has never prevailed before.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:08 pm

Slight flaw in your argument, Lausten.

If you look at the statistics, the population is less sick and weak, and the water less polluted than it was 30 years ago. Not perfect, of course, and there is more to do. But every generation lives longer than its predecessor. (with the interesting exception of present day USA, due to opioid overdose deaths. But every other western nation has an increasing life span. Even in the USA, if you exclude those opioid related deaths, life span is increasing.)

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:36 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:08 pm
Slight flaw in your argument, Lausten.

If you look at the statistics, the population is less sick and weak, and the water less polluted than it was 30 years ago. Not perfect, of course, and there is more to do. But every generation lives longer than its predecessor. (with the interesting exception of present day USA, due to opioid overdose deaths. But every other western nation has an increasing life span. Even in the USA, if you exclude those opioid related deaths, life span is increasing.)
Huge flaw in your argument. You assume something I banged out in 5 minutes was a complete thesis. Of course there is more than one way to control the masses. Opioids being a good one. Also, it's always good to give the people something with one hand while taking away something else, or give it then take it away, and it's not a secret cabal that is always succeeding either. A better world seemed to be coming, so yeah, we got enough garbage out of Lake Erie so it didn't catch fire, but environmental regulations are currently being rolled back and we could be right back there in a matter of years. And I'm talking about the world, the world where millionaires don't care what country they are in or who they are exploiting, as long as they can play cheap labor off the middle class and keep them afraid and keep workers from knowing their power.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:38 pm

Is this your conspiracy theory, Lausten ?

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:29 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:38 pm
Is this your conspiracy theory, Lausten ?
No. I stated many facts and some speculation, but nothing far from the mainstream. Of course, you don't deal with facts, so, not much point in discussing it. You know that a billionaire is currently in jail for trafficking young women to other rich and powerful people right now right? That's a conspiracy. Their actions were blatantly illegal and immoral but people who should have prosecuted them a long time ago let them off. Giving millionaires a tax break and claiming it's going to help poor people is a conspiracy. Removing environmental regulations so rich people can get richer is a conspiracy.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:35 pm

You guys are going off topic, but powerful people have always played politics using whatever issues play on the minds of the public. They may throw their support behind one environmental cause or another, but their real goal is often to make a power play against the powerful people supporting the other side. Sometimes environmental issues are nothing more than a political football.

Some would say politics is "a means to an end," but is the fate of the planet really best left in the hands of warring clans, who could care less about the environment, and only about striking a blow against "the other side?"
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:01 pm

"off topic" is kind of what we do isn't it? If you are going to ask a question about scientists acting honestly, I think you need to look at the big picture. There is a difference between the scientific method and the scientific community. The results of good science can be manipulated, suppressed and altered. That's usually not the fault of the scientist.

As for conspiracy theories, the real ones are not usually a group of people meeting secretly. It's a series of small decisions made over time. Here's a good example of individuals doing what they might be able to justify as good for their kids, but it results in a lot of other kids suffering.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:22 pm

There are always people behaving badly, including billionnaires. It is sweeping generalizations I object to. Some rich people are actually quite decent.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:20 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:22 pm
There are always people behaving badly, including billionnaires. It is sweeping generalizations I object to. Some rich people are actually quite decent.
Especially after they discover how much guilt can be assuaged by donating money to charitable causes.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lausten » Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:57 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:22 pm
There are always people behaving badly, including billionnaires. It is sweeping generalizations I object to. Some rich people are actually quite decent.
I covered that. If all rich people were evil, we would be living in the dystopia. Actually in history, we have, it has been called feudalism and other names. But we keep finding ways to overcome the powerful. But we have much deadlier weapons now and a violent revolution could destroy a lot more than just a few castles.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:16 pm

Ha, ha.........this all really is begging the question: how did they get rich, aka: behind every great fortune is a great crime. I think that is less true with the dot.com millionaires. I think some even get rich before they get corrupted. Thats how fast their fortunes are made.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:23 pm

Actually Bobbo, according to the book, The Millionnaire Next Door, the single most common way Americans become rich is through setting up in the dry cleaning business. It is widely recognized in business circles that the road to wealth is through private enterprise in which you sell a product or service that is in demand. It does not have to be innovative or new. Old, mundane services and products have made a lot more people rich than new and innovative ones.

While some wealthy people became rich via things that could be called crimes, the vast majority did it through offering something people need.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:26 pm

Yeah sure. Depends on what you mean by rich and/or decent/evil. I don't think most dry cleaners are rich enough to be evil.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:55 pm

Fairly obviously, you do not get to be a multimillionnaire by running a single dry cleaner. You need to expand and run many. I have a cousin who was once married to a guy who became a multimillionnaire by building up fast food businesses. Many of them. The most common road to riches is actually mundane.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:55 am

Hey Stat Man: what percentage of dry cleaners are ...............millionaires?

..........................billionaires.

Or is it just blather??
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:05 am

Bobbo

I was quoting a book. I am not the author, so asking me unreasonable questions is not going to get anywhere.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:00 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:05 am
Bobbo

I was quoting a book. I am not the author, so asking me unreasonable questions is not going to get anywhere.
Thats..................................even...................................worse.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:43 am

A city that is not adopting feel good half gaps that don't address the issue:

Berkeley has become the first city in the nation to ban the installation of natural gas lines in new homes. The City Council on Tuesday night unanimously voted to ban gas from new low-rise residential buildings starting Jan. 1. The San Francisco Chronicle reports:
The natural gas ordinance, introduced by Councilwoman Kate Harrison, requires all new single-family homes, town homes and small apartment buildings to have electric infrastructure. After its passage, Harrison thanked the community and her colleagues "for making Berkeley the first city in California and the United States to prohibit natural gas infrastructure in new buildings." The city will include commercial buildings and larger residential structures as the state moves to develop regulations for those, officials said. The ordinance allocates $273,341 per year for a two-year staff position in the Building and Safety Division within the city's Department of Planning and Development. The employee will be responsible for implementing the ban.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/art ... psid=drVRA
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:14 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:00 am
Lance Kennedy wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:05 am
Bobbo

I was quoting a book. I am not the author, so asking me unreasonable questions is not going to get anywhere.
Thats..................................even...................................worse.
Bobbo
That is a nut case argument. In fact, not an argument at all.

On the city that banned gas lines, fine. A small start. It could not be done if everyone did it at once, but one place at a time allows the opportunity for society to adapt.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:48 pm

You sound just like trump: "Some people say........."

"Any stupid thing you wish"==>don't blame me, I just quoted from a book.

And then the flip: bobbo is irresponsible when he posts a link to a qualified scientific article that identifies the AGW related deaths that could occur by 2100.

Say lance: do you know what hypocrisy is? Do you recognize how deeply you traffic in it?? You know: hypothetically if reality is too harsh??
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:38 pm

Bobbo

Get this. I am permitted to quote from books, or articles. But I do not know more than what is written. Your demands for extra information that I do not have are just plain idiotic. If I do not know something, I say so, and it is not acceptable for you to criticize me for not having data that is not available.

My criticism of idiots who think they can get into the prophecy business is valid regardless of who does it. No one can prophecy what will happen in 80 years. That includes scientists. I have pointed out previous attempts that failed. There is no doubt that global warming is a serious problem and that must be addressed. But detailed prophecy 80 years ahead is just stupid.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:49 pm

You diminish the general by emphasizing the detail. As you note: just stupid.

How is your understanding (OF YOURSELF) coming along.........hypothetically?????
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:23 pm

Since that last post is typical Bobbo, meaning indecipherable, I simply do not know what you were trying to say.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:26 pm

yep.
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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by landrew » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:48 pm

The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

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Re: Can climate scientists speak honestly?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:37 pm

landrew wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:48 pm
For what it's worth:
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/fi ... /faq-s.pdf
The link is a worthwhile summary of the systematic interference in climate studies by the Federal Gubment. Its been variously reported on in the press over time but it is important to see its directed and intentional as opposed to random and deniable other motivations.
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