Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:02 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Ian Hazard wrote:disgruntled liberals ]
I am a Conservative by Canadian standards and would be a Blue Dog Democrat in the United States. Don't make assumptions.
It was the biggest nastiest worstest of the Blue Dog Democrats - not by any stretch a "liberal" or progressive - who helped engineer Trump's win. Seriously, she got fewer popular votes than Romney . . . Jesus wept.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:15 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:NBC's exit polling showed "wants a strong leader" as one of strongest desires of voters.
Last time I checked. the terms "strong leader" and "Russian Spy" were utterly incompatible.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:24 pm

Excellent news on the cabinet front, as Trump begins to show his pragmatism, outreach ability, and keen intellect. Here are names the president-elect is considering and some possible slots for them: Gingrich (State), Giuliani (AG), Palin or DJT Jr (Interior), Mnuchin (from Goldman Sachs) (Treasury), Sessions (Defense) with Gen Flynn going to NSA, Sid “Hillary is a ‘{!#%@}’” Miller (Ag), Hucklechuckle (Commerce), Gov Scott (HHS), Hamm (CEO Continental Resources - Energy), Dr Carson (Education), Sheriff Dave “Pitchfork” Clarke (Homeland Security), Ebell (climate skeptic from Competitive Enterprise Institute - EPA).

You can see a reaching out, a strong effort to bring in a wide range of perspectives and deep experience. Why’s everyone so worried? What could go wrong?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:25 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:NBC's exit polling showed "wants a strong leader" as one of strongest desires of voters.
Last time I checked. the terms "strong leader" and "Russian Spy" were utterly incompatible.
According to NPR about 64% of voters said that they considered Trump unqualified to be president. About 15-20% of those voters voted for Trump. Not that we should be putting stock in polls . . . but there's lots of incompatibility around this afternoon, eh.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:34 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Excellent news on the cabinet front, as Trump begins to show his pragmatism, outreach ability, and keen intellect.
Let's not act like he's showing pragmatism just because he used his inside voice in a speech. I know you are being sarcastic but many are saying this right now.
Here are names the president-elect is considering and some possible slots for them:
Oh boy
Gingrich (State)
{!#%@}
Giuliani (AG)
Too old and visibly not right in the head.

,
Palin(Interior)
ARE YOU {!#%@} KIDDING ME? THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR HAS TO BE ABLE TO READ AND WRITE, THAT'S KIND OF IMPORTANT!
Mnuchin (from Goldman Sachs) (Treasury)
Never heard of him.
Sessions (Defense)
He's experienced. Nuts but experienced.
Sid “Hillary is a ‘{!#%@}’” Miller (Ag)
:roll:
Hucklechuckle (Commerce)
:rotfl:
Sheriff Dave “Pitchfork” Clarke (Homeland Security)
Well, he's a good cop but he is far from DHS materiel, in fact I would say that he would be a fish out of water.
Ebell (climate skeptic from Competitive Enterprise Institute - EPA).
:rotfl:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:43 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Excellent news on the cabinet front, as Trump begins to show his pragmatism, outreach ability, and keen intellect.
Let's not act like he's showing pragmatism just because he used his inside voice in a speech. I know you are being sarcastic but many are saying this right now.
This is an example of cause and effect. :)
Jeff_36 wrote:
Gingrich (State)
{!#%@}
Anyone who is thinking that this vote was for world peace should reflect on this.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Giuliani (AG)
Too old and visibly not right in the head.
Thus a perfect fit.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Palin(Interior)
ARE YOU {!#%@} KIDDING ME? THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR HAS TO BE ABLE TO READ AND WRITE, THAT'S KIND OF IMPORTANT!
Do you need to read and write to cancel regulations and chant "Drill Baby Drill!"
Jeff_36 wrote:
Mnuchin (from Goldman Sachs) (Treasury)
Never heard of him.
Former Democratic fund raising guy, Trump brought him on to head campaign finances. This one is for anyone thinking that Trump really gave a {!#%@} that Hillary was sounding off to Goldman Sachs.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Sessions (Defense)
He's experienced. Nuts but experienced.
It's the "nuts" part that appeals to Trump. Immigration hawk. He can assign the army to deportations maybe?
Jeff_36 wrote:
Sheriff Dave “Pitchfork” Clarke (Homeland Security)
Well, he's a good cop but he is far from DHS materiel, in fact I would say that he would be a fish out of water.
Is he? I don't know that. Milwaukee is, ya know, one of those places.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Ebell (climate skeptic from Competitive Enterprise Institute - EPA).
:rotfl:
It's important. If you want to boil the planet, you need guys like him.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:52 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I think in two years Trump mismanagement will cause a flip in both houses back to a democratic majority. In four years he will leave the White House with all those people who voted for him thinking, "WTF was I smoking?"
I want to agree. But Democrats don't turn out in offyear elections - I don't really know the reason, just that they don't. That's how my state got its governor. Republican governor in a strongly blue state - Dems just didn't give a {!#%@} during the midterms.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:53 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote: Anyone who is thinking that this vote was for world peace should reflect on this.
Was anyone saying that?
Jeff_36 wrote:
Giuliani (AG)
Too old and visibly not right in the head.
Thus a perfect fit.
Its sad to see his decline. I used to really admire him no more. He's like a once great Rock n' Roll band earning pennies from touring in casinos and state fairs. Blue Oyster Cult basically.
Do you need to read and write to cancel regulations and chant "Drill Baby Drill!"
I have my doubts that she can even sign her name at this point. Did you see her Milwaukee speech? do watch for me sir, it will prove my point.
Former Democratic fund raising guy, Trump brought him on to head campaign finances. This one is for anyone thinking that Trump really gave a {!#%@} that Hillary was sounding off to Goldman Sachs.
Hypocritical of him eh?
It's the "nuts" part that appeals to Trump. Immigration hawk. He can assign the army to deportations maybe?
This won't end well.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:56 pm

This is kind of wild. My neighborhood, 2016 vs 2012 voting:

2016: Trump 5246, Clinton 39814, Johnson 991, Stein 1005
2012: Romney 6085, Obama 35806, Johnson 447, Stein 574

Slightly higher turnout this year, my neighbors a bit less inclined to vote for the Republican. As I said, we were 60-40 for Bernie in the primaries.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:03 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote: Anyone who is thinking that this vote was for world peace should reflect on this.
Was anyone saying that?
Not you, but yes, many people. They reasoned that Clinton is a hawk and Trump is more likely to pursue less war-like policy, bring about peace with Russia, end turmoil in the mideast, etc. Iran - go right ahead and nuke up, that deal is going, going, gone!
Jeff_36 wrote: I used to really admire him no more. He's like a once great Rock n' Roll band earning pennies from touring in casinos and state fairs. Blue Oyster Cult basically.
More like a smelly old fart. Never liked him, like him less now. His present state seems logical though, based on his past.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Do you need to read and write to cancel regulations and chant "Drill Baby Drill!"
I have my doubts that she can even sign her name at this point. Did you see her Milwaukee speech? do watch for me sir, it will prove my point.
I refuse to endure the pain again. I now have to listen to Kellyanne Conway, Newt Gingrich, DJT Jr, Jason Miller, and Boris Epshteyn for the next 4 years. That's bad enough.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Former Democratic fund raising guy, Trump brought him on to head campaign finances. This one is for anyone thinking that Trump really gave a {!#%@} that Hillary was sounding off to Goldman Sachs.
Hypocritical of him eh?
Only if you gave any credence to Trump's blue collar rhetoric. I think Trump's been transparent and that's why the stock market went up today, as investors mull to themselves, oh wow, huge tax breaks, no EPA {!#%@} to put up with, no consumer protections, no rules about family leave and pay and other stuff that gets in our way, happy times are here again. They'll wake up to the trade stuff at some point.
Jeff_36 wrote:
It's the "nuts" part that appeals to Trump. Immigration hawk. He can assign the army to deportations maybe?
This won't end well.
I'll wager it begins pretty badly too.

Landslide? LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:13 pm

Dave Clarke is a registered Democrat but is much more right wing, his office is under investigation for the death of a prisoner (they turned his f#%!ing water off for six days and refused to give him any!!!!), his employees sued him and won for subjecting them to religious rhetoric during mandatory training sessions and he is a regular on Fox News.
In other words, he's a real douchebag.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:14 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I think in two years Trump mismanagement will cause a flip in both houses back to a democratic majority. In four years he will leave the White House with all those people who voted for him thinking, "WTF was I smoking?"
I want to agree. But Democrats don't turn out in offyear elections - I don't really know the reason, just that they don't. That's how my state got its governor. Republican governor in a strongly blue state - Dems just didn't give a {!#%@} during the midterms.
I think after two years of the Great Pumpkin they will have incentive to get out and vote.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Denying-History » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:23 pm

Lol After learning Trump had some Jew in his staff Jim has actually denounced Trump.
« The Terror here is a horrifying fact. There is a fear that reaches down and haunts all sections of the community. No household, however humble, apparently but what lives in constant fear of nocturnal raid by the secret police. . .This particular purge is undoubtedly political. . . It is deliberately projected by the party leaders, who themselves regretted the necessity for it. »
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:23 pm

Jeff_36: We will survive this. We've been through it before, not as bad, but bad. Reagan, W. We've had some real stinkers. LBJ effed up mightily, Nixon was god-awful, believe me.

I find myself disagreeing with all the grandiose analysis about sea-changes in the culture and population. Yeah, it's a political upheaval but not a change in the society. . . yet.

Clinton pretty much lost this by being Clinton, by running a bad campaign ("I'm with her" has to be one of the worst campaign slogans in history - as though this election was for the people to coronate Clinton whilst installing her the White House) and by never articulating anything memorable about where she planned to lead things to, and by making some terrible choices (or more accurately "triangulating" as Bill and she triangulate).

The people of the US - I know you will disagree - are about as bigoted, racist, myopic and mindlessly nationalistic as they were two years ago. And two years before that. Etc. We live in a country that has a lot of prejudice and self centered arrogance, as well as paranoia, in its political culture. Clinton failed to make the Obama coalition operative - and that magnified the paranoid right's power. She led her party into a disaster, yes, that is true, and that will allow Trump a pretty free ride for now, but the fundamentals are the fundamentals. If she'd run even a half decent campaign - well, if the Dems had chosen even a half decent candidate who ran a half decent campaign, I doubt Trump would have won. I am still trying to figure out how Clinton managed to end up with 1.5m votes less than Romney - and not get within 6m of Obama!

Trump will be able to upend some important stuff with the power he has - I'm not thinking only about policies but also of norms and safeguards. But he has promised people impossible things (on immigration, coal and steel and jobs, security, prosperity, taxes and fiscal policy, etc). It's like those signs in stores that read, "You broke it, you own it." We shall see.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:23 pm

Denying-History wrote:Lol After learning Trump had some Jew in his staff Jim has actually denounced Trump.
His son in law?!?!? And daughter? LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:24 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I think in two years Trump mismanagement will cause a flip in both houses back to a democratic majority. In four years he will leave the White House with all those people who voted for him thinking, "WTF was I smoking?"
I want to agree. But Democrats don't turn out in offyear elections - I don't really know the reason, just that they don't. That's how my state got its governor. Republican governor in a strongly blue state - Dems just didn't give a {!#%@} during the midterms.
I think after two years of the Great Pumpkin they will have incentive to get out and vote.
You could be right, it may take longer for the implosion.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Denying-History » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:31 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Denying-History wrote:Lol After learning Trump had some Jew in his staff Jim has actually denounced Trump.
His son in law?!?!? And daughter? LOL
Lol No, Jim is claiming that he has financial backing from Jews because of a SBP's post.

https://furtherglory.wordpress.com/2016 ... ish-cabal/
« The Terror here is a horrifying fact. There is a fear that reaches down and haunts all sections of the community. No household, however humble, apparently but what lives in constant fear of nocturnal raid by the secret police. . .This particular purge is undoubtedly political. . . It is deliberately projected by the party leaders, who themselves regretted the necessity for it. »
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:37 pm

Denying-History wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Denying-History wrote:Lol After learning Trump had some Jew in his staff Jim has actually denounced Trump.
His son in law?!?!? And daughter? LOL
Lol No, Jim is claiming that he has financial backing from Jews because of a SBP's post.

https://furtherglory.wordpress.com/2016 ... ish-cabal/

:lol:

Jim will never change.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:40 pm

Denying-History wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Denying-History wrote:Lol After learning Trump had some Jew in his staff Jim has actually denounced Trump.
His son in law?!?!? And daughter? LOL
Lol No, Jim is claiming that he has financial backing from Jews because of a SBP's post.

https://furtherglory.wordpress.com/2016 ... ish-cabal/
Well, yeah, Adelson, Epshteyn, for sure, these guys are Drumpfsters.. But I love this: "Does anyone besides me think that this might have had something to do with the last minute victory by Trump? Hillary was winning when I went to bed, and when I woke up the next morning, Trump was our new President." I don't! LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:41 pm

Jim wants his thread title back! :)
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:03 pm

:lol:
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:06 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:Dave Clarke is a registered Democrat but is much more right wing, his office is under investigation for the death of a prisoner (they turned his f#%!ing water off for six days and refused to give him any!!!!)
I have no real issue with that if the prisoner was a rapist, pimp or serial killer.

his employees sued him and won for subjecting them to religious rhetoric during mandatory training sessions


I do have an issue with that.
and he is a regular on Fox News.
:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: arrrgh

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:12 pm

Jeff_36 wrote: I have no real issue with that if the prisoner was a rapist, pimp or serial killer.
Even so....then it is murder. Now, you convict a serial killer and strap him to the chair or gurney then you are legally executing a condemned man. I have no problem with that.

But allowing a prisoner, whatever the crime, to die a slow death through dehydration and not allowing him water is simply murder.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:18 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:Dave Clarke is a registered Democrat but is much more right wing, his office is under investigation for the death of a prisoner (they turned his f#%!ing water off for six days and refused to give him any!!!!)
I have no real issue with that if the prisoner was a rapist, pimp or serial killer.
That's why you're posting on the Internet and not running a city sheriff's or other department in the US :) our Constitution prohibits such treatment of prisoners. Anyone who does what you have no issue with is guilty of murder and unfit to serve anywhere but time alongside Hillary.

The real danger of Trump is that the voters, in their infinite stupidity, elected someone with the capacity - and probably with sufficient popular (for now) and elite (for now) support - to destroy basic constitutional protections and norms - and to continue his project of undermining meaningful political and public discourse. Along with, of course, Trump will be able to enact a lot of bad policy (the two items which worry me the most are having to do with war/stabiliy and with climate change). In a way, the voters may get more than they bargained for in installing an authoritarian white nationalist as President, just to communicate how pissed off and bigoted they are. The really dangerous change is to come.

I can't resist:

Image

It's all his now, thanks to a national outbreak of obstinate self-certainty: I wonder what his fans will be thinking whilst he eats them.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:19 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Jeff_36: We will survive this.


IDK.......
We've been through it before, not as bad, but bad. Reagan, W. We've had some real stinkers. LBJ effed up mightily, Nixon was god-awful, believe me.
There are leagues of difference, believe me. LBJ meant well and was the best POTUS ever from a Civil RIghts standpoint. Nixon ended the Vietnam War and reached rapprochement with China and signed in all manner of environmental legislation. Reagan defeated communism, ended the 80's recession and was one of the most popular Presidents of all time and is still well liked in many quarters. Your examples had accomplishments that belied their overall records, whereas I can't see Trump doing even one good thing. Nixon had help from a forigen policy wizard in Kissinger and Raegan had a solid team backing him up. Trump has a basket of deplorables.
I find myself disagreeing with all the grandiose analysis about sea-changes in the culture and population. Yeah, it's a political upheaval but not a change in the society. . . yet.
His SCUSA nominees will have effect for decades.
Clinton pretty much lost this by being Clinton, by running a bad campaign ("I'm with her" has to be one of the worst campaign slogans in history - as though this election was for the people to coronate Clinton whilst installing her the White House)


"Where's the Beef" was worse. And I see no logical failure in running a campaign against a proven imbecile by pointing out his imbecility and demonstrating it to him. She crushed all three debates and he was universally mocked. The result was basically the opposite of what I expected.
The people of the US - I know you will disagree - are about as bigoted, racist, myopic and mindlessly nationalistic as they were two years ago. And two years before that. Etc.
Have you not come a great distance from Jim Crow? Well, until last night anyway.......
Trump will be able to upend some important stuff with the power he has - I'm not thinking only about policies but also of norms and safeguards. But he has promised people impossible things (on immigration, coal and steel and jobs, security, prosperity, taxes and fiscal policy, etc). It's like those signs in stores that read, "You broke it, you own it." We shall see.
If the Dems run an even halfway decent candidate in 2020 they will win 500+ electoral votes. You just wait. I'm not betting on Trump even lasting his whole first term, in fact I'd make a huge wager against it. Impeachment, sex scandal, criminal investigation......... one of those things will happen.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:23 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote: That's why you're posting on the Internet and not running a city sheriff's or other department in the US :) our Constitution prohibits such treatment of prisoners.
LOL I am well aware. And I totally agree re the constitution and the incident, I just think that there is a lot of bad people out there.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:48 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Jeff_36: We will survive this.


IDK.......
We've been through it before, not as bad, but bad. Reagan, W. We've had some real stinkers. LBJ effed up mightily, Nixon was god-awful, believe me.
There are leagues of difference, believe me. LBJ meant well and was the best POTUS ever from a Civil RIghts standpoint. Nixon ended the Vietnam War and reached rapprochement with China and signed in all manner of environmental legislation. Reagan defeated communism, ended the 80's recession and was one of the most popular Presidents of all time and is still well liked in many quarters. Your examples had accomplishments that belied their overall records, whereas I can't see Trump doing even one good thing. Nixon had help from a forigen policy wizard in Kissinger and Raegan had a solid team backing him up. Trump has a basket of deplorables.
We disagree on those presidents and it is too long for me to go through it all, again. Let me just say that the mood on Reagan's election was quite similar to the mood last night. Reagan presided over the beginning of the outrageous surge in wealth inequality in the US and destabilized the economy with supply side economics and anti-regulation fervor. LBJ was smart enough to capitulate to popular pressure on civil rights but Vietnam is a terrible legacy. Nixon did not end the war in Vietnam . . . but that's another story . . .
Jeff_36 wrote:
I find myself disagreeing with all the grandiose analysis about sea-changes in the culture and population. Yeah, it's a political upheaval but not a change in the society. . . yet.
His SCUSA nominees will have effect for decades.
That's my point. It is not a sea change in the culture - he's been handed the keys to change society, economics, and politics, however. And he will. But I agree with Jeffk - what he will do is not going to be terribly popular, nor is it likely to work out well, from what we've seen.

The people will remain basically where they are: slightly more of us voted for Clinton. We don't disappear. She failed - or even more would have voted for the Dems. Trump and she both got fewer votes than Romney. This is not a mandate electoral count, even if the result for now will be like one.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Clinton pretty much lost this by being Clinton, by running a bad campaign ("I'm with her" has to be one of the worst campaign slogans in history - as though this election was for the people to coronate Clinton whilst installing her the White House)

"Where's the Beef" was worse. And I see no logical failure in running a campaign against a proven imbecile by pointing out his imbecility and demonstrating it to him. She crushed all three debates and he was universally mocked. The result was basically the opposite of what I expected.
But you were missing key points all along. The point was not to win the debates but the White House. Many, many voters really didn't know what Clinton was running for except herself and her place in history. I hate to say that but it is a fact. ("Where's the beef?" IIRC was used in a debate during the primary, not as the branded slogan for the general election . . . )
Jeff_36 wrote:
The people of the US - I know you will disagree - are about as bigoted, racist, myopic and mindlessly nationalistic as they were two years ago. And two years before that. Etc.
Have you not come a great distance from Jim Crow? Well, until last night anyway.......
But look at the backlash against Obama . . . that isn't just Trump. That was there, that has been there, that will be there. And I don't think it all of sudden became the majority way of looking at things. The popular vote bears this out, actually. Trump - again - received fewer popular votes than Romney! But won . . . because Clinton was so weak.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Trump will be able to upend some important stuff with the power he has - I'm not thinking only about policies but also of norms and safeguards. But he has promised people impossible things (on immigration, coal and steel and jobs, security, prosperity, taxes and fiscal policy, etc). It's like those signs in stores that read, "You broke it, you own it." We shall see.
If the Dems run an even halfway decent candidate in 2020 they will win 500+ electoral votes. You just wait. I'm not betting on Trump even lasting his whole first term, in fact I'd make a huge wager against it. Impeachment, sex scandal, criminal investigation......... one of those things will happen.
Well, ahem, ok, I will be happy to take that wager. But the kernel of what you're saying is exactly my argument: a half decent candidate with a half decent campaign would have won this time. That being so, the whole narrative that the American people have changed overnight strikes me as hyperbolic. What Trump will do, having rode the middle finger to office, is not hyperbolic. Still, I doubt he will be very successful and I think he will manufacture outright opposition as he goes forward. So, hell yeah, get 'em next time.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:54 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote: That's why you're posting on the Internet and not running a city sheriff's or other department in the US :) our Constitution prohibits such treatment of prisoners.
LOL I am well aware. And I totally agree re the constitution and the incident, I just think that there is a lot of bad people out there.
And we convict them of what they did against the law, sentence them, and force them to serve their sentences. We don't mistreat or kill them because we think they are bad people. Or we're convinced a different decision about them would have been better. Or we want to show off how big our balls are.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:23 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote: But the kernel of what you're saying is exactly my argument: a half decent candidate with a half decent campaign would have won this time.
I agree, I've said this before. Really, it works both ways, a less polarizing figure for the Republicans or the Democrats would have put this away weeks ago, no contest. Yes, Trump won all the right states but Clinton still won the popular vote. I don't know if Sanders or Kasich would have been the candidates to do either but, maybe...
One of the things that struck me last night was CNN saying that Clinton neglected the Rust Belt States even after local Democrats begged her to come. By the time she did it was too late. Trump's campaign did not and that wound up turning the whole thing. That and the self-righteous tards who voted independent to make their cute little point and wound up screwing us all.
I think you are right that Clinton ran on her place in history and not issues.
I'm slowly making my peace with this whole thing. I realize I can't change what happened, I have to learn to live with it for the next four years.
The good news is I have finally worked out with Amazon what the deal is with Cesarani's book, I can start on that soon.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:10 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote: But the kernel of what you're saying is exactly my argument: a half decent candidate with a half decent campaign would have won this time.
I agree, I've said this before. Really, it works both ways, a less polarizing figure for the Republicans or the Democrats would have put this away weeks ago, no contest. Yes, Trump won all the right states but Clinton still won the popular vote. I don't know if Sanders or Kasich would have been the candidates to do either but, maybe...
Very good point. In a lot of ways it was a Republican year.

My "generic" Democrat would have been Sherrod Brown. My wife's was Joe Biden. Against Trump either should have won. Probably not against Kasich though. I agree.
Jeffk 1970 wrote:One of the things that struck me last night was CNN saying that Clinton neglected the Rust Belt States even after local Democrats begged her to come.
Totally agree. That's why I re-posted what I replied to Jeff_36 in February. This was pretty farkin' obvious.

None of the pollsters got it but this is what big ole Michael Moore said around the time of the DNC (I remember this well, I read it at lunch in a cafe along Lake Michigan a bit flummoxed by all the Trump yard signs, hats, tee shirts I was seeing): Michael Moore: ""I'm sorry to have to be the buzzkill here so early on, but I think Trump is going to win. I'm sorry. Boo if you want."

An unpleasant, pugnacious, egomaniacal {!#%@} who likes non-dairy creamer in bad coffee, and who makes in-your-face movies and shoves his own misshapen face onto TV whenever he can, was smarter than the assembled brilliance of analysts, pollsters, consultants, and political scientists. LOL.
Jeffk 1970 wrote:By the time she did it was too late. Trump's campaign did not and that wound up turning the whole thing.
She won union households - but barely. The worst showing since the New Deal by a Democrat with union households.
Jeffk 1970 wrote:That and the self-righteous tards who voted independent to make their cute little point and wound up screwing us all.
The whole election came across as childish - a giant national temper tantrum thrown by Trumpsters jamming their middle finger up what they think is the {!#%@} of the Establishment and not giving a flying eff what happens next, Johnsonians protecting their precious purity and self respect by not lowering themselves to vote for the lesser evil, and Clintonistas basking in the shared vibes of "making history." Pretty pathetic.
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I'm slowly making my peace with this whole thing. I realize I can't change what happened, I have to learn to live with it for the next four years.
I am getting bombarded by emails from "cause" groups today - paying attention only to those from SPLC. Not even from Bernie. Just SPLC. Life goes on. I cannot watch news on TV and listen to their voices right now. Which is a good thing. Tonight we're meeting a world famous scientist for tapas. I will get to hear about recent research on evolution. Things could be worse.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:18 pm

Look at what Moore said, btw, about Trump's path to winning: all Trump would have to do is win 4 states, with 64 electoral votes - Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Ok, then. Michigan still has yet to be called - but Trump leads there. Make fun of grumpy ole Mike all you want, but shiiiit. I didn't recall Moore's being that spot on!
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:20 pm

I'm also getting tons of e-mails.

I'm going to immerse myself back into the things I love most and wait for the inauguration of the Trump. That's all I can do.

As for Michael Moore, he did turn out smarter than everyone, including me, who thought this was over.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:22 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I'm going to immerse myself back into the things I love most
yeah, talking on the Internet to Nazis about the Holocaust . . .

LOL I think I will turn off politics for a while. I am looking forward to discussing speciation this evening . . . not to mention tapas. :mrgreen:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Denying-History » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:24 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I'm also getting tons of e-mails.

I'm going to immerse myself back into the things I love most and wait for the inauguration of the Trump. That's all I can do.

As for Michael Moore, he did turn out smarter than everyone, including me, who thought this was over.
Lol FG went and looked for the very first source she could find and called it fact.

https://furtherglory.wordpress.com/2016 ... -election/
« The Terror here is a horrifying fact. There is a fear that reaches down and haunts all sections of the community. No household, however humble, apparently but what lives in constant fear of nocturnal raid by the secret police. . .This particular purge is undoubtedly political. . . It is deliberately projected by the party leaders, who themselves regretted the necessity for it. »
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:34 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I'm going to immerse myself back into the things I love most
yeah, talking on the Internet to Nazis about the Holocaust . . .

LOL I think I will turn off politics for a while. I am looking forward to discussing speciation this evening . . . not to mention tapas. :mrgreen:
Yup. :lol:

I need to catch up my reading, anyway.
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:35 pm

Denying-History wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I'm also getting tons of e-mails.

I'm going to immerse myself back into the things I love most and wait for the inauguration of the Trump. That's all I can do.

As for Michael Moore, he did turn out smarter than everyone, including me, who thought this was over.
Lol FG went and looked for the very first source she could find and called it fact.

https://furtherglory.wordpress.com/2016 ... -election/
:lol:

Yeah, I read that.

I saw Diane posting more...
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:36 pm

No {!#%@} - I am still reading Weinberg, stuck about 150 pp from the end! Thanks for the reminder. LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Denying-History » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:42 pm

Lol Yeah, FG is slowly convincing me she is Jim level scholarship.

Well I found an answer to the undying question: "Will Donald Trump ruin this country if he's elected president?"
If by "this country" you mean either Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan (and maybe even Iran, North Korea and a couple of other places), it is quite possible that he will.
- Achilleas Vortselas
« The Terror here is a horrifying fact. There is a fear that reaches down and haunts all sections of the community. No household, however humble, apparently but what lives in constant fear of nocturnal raid by the secret police. . .This particular purge is undoubtedly political. . . It is deliberately projected by the party leaders, who themselves regretted the necessity for it. »
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:43 pm

LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:48 pm

:lol:
A sober appraisal would put Himmler himself in the racially average band, or to some extent even below it: his face was round rather than oval, his nose more broad than slim, his normal bearing more ‘sagging’ than erect...
Longerich: Himmler

Hhhhhhhmmmmmm, is it possible that Carlo Mattogno is the greatest scholar the world has ever known?
:lol: :lol:
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