Trump will win!

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Re: Trump will sing!

Post by Jeff_36 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 2:40 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:
scrmbldggs wrote::bag: Jeff made me do it...
*sigh* what did I do this time? :lol:
Post/link a music video. I have a knack hitting the wrong notes. :lol:
ahhhhh I see. I figured that some songs are worth a thousand words.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 12:28 pm

First post-Pussygate polling, from POLITICO/Morning Consult: only 12% of Republicans (Republican women no different from overall percentage - 13%) think that Trump should no longer be the party's candidate. A remarkable 65% of Republicans were very or somewhat more favorable to Trump after seeing his non-apology video.

Folks, we seem to have a Republican problem here. Although pollsters warn that it will take some time for all this to filter through, the poll design made sure that voters viewed the Access Hollywood tape as well as the non-apology video.

Clinton's lead is just 4 points in 4-way matchup.

The poll shows, overall, little electoral reason for Republicans to bail on Trump. This sort of information, I believe, is what's driving most Republican leaders - not their abstract notions of morality, quality, fitness to lead - but whether the party can still win with Trump. Some like McCain, Ayotte, and others in close races bailed on Trump, calculating that he'd hurt them. A handful were righteously indignant. Most want to see what happens in and after the debate.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:26 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Pussygate
That's a Tautology...

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:37 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Pussygate
That's a Tautology...
Pussyghazi?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:44 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote: Pussyghazi?

maybe...


Listening to some Evangelicals supporting Trump, it sounds like they expect the Rapture to come anytime (possibly assisted by Trump), and they want to show Jesus that they've done everything to stop Abortion and Gays.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:45 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote: Pussyghazi?
maybe...


Listening to some Evangelicals supporting Trump, it sounds like they expect the Rapture to come anytime (possibly assisted by Trump), and they want to show Jesus that they've done everything to stop Abortion and Gays.
Sounds like Mike Pence.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:58 pm

The Republicans are in a real pickle.

That some leaders have moved away from Trump has pissed off most of the base, if we believe the Morning Consult poll. That can hurt some down ballot candidates - because what it is, is a split in the party.

Also, dumping Trump can't work for the GOP if the degree of support in the Morning Consult poll is his real support. Say they dump him. First, you can't just gin up a winning campaign in 3-4 weeks. Second, Trumparians, the hard core, will turn on the party - top of the ticket and down ballot - with a vengeance.

But at the same time, independents (the so-called suburban moms in the main) who've been fence sitting and some - not many - moderate Republicans are very likely defectors. So, Trump loses 5% of his Republican vote (2.5% of the popular support he has) and maybe 2-3% of the overall electorate shifts - that's a drop of 5%. Which means makes the November voting nearly a double digit win (5%+4% = 9% - the 4% being Clinton's margin last week) for Clinton.

It cannot be fun to be a GOP top dog today - but it sure is heck is fun to be someone who detests that party. OTOH I think all this augers very poorly for the country over the coming months. Once we are through tonight's spectacle. It will be more fragmented, and more deeply polarized, with a president less adroit than Obama, than it has been for the past 8 years.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:17 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:

The poll shows, overall, little electoral reason for Republicans to bail on Trump. This sort of information, I believe, is what's driving most Republican leaders - not their abstract notions of morality, quality, fitness to lead - but whether the party can still win with Trump. Some like McCain, Ayotte, and others in close races bailed on Trump, calculating that he'd hurt them. A handful were righteously indignant. Most want to see what happens in and after the debate.
Political theater. As entertaining as a blockbuster movie and as predictable as a soap opera.

The Republicans who have renounced Trump are those who never wanted to support him in the first place. They reluctantly joined the GOP team when they had no alternative, but jumped at this chance to bail with "dignity". The tape was manna from heaven for these hypocrites. I see it as another reason to not re-elect them. If, as they claim, character matters, then they have disqualified themselves from public service.

Meanwhile, I'm still voting for Johnson.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balsamo » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:29 pm

Meanwhile, has anyone here followed the wikileaks leak on Hilary democratically paid speeches where she is promoting a Free trade world and auto-regulation for the finance industry?

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:32 pm

Yes, I thought I posted about that upthread . . . I am pretty sure I did. She is the beneficiary of Trump's {!#%@}-up, for sure.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:40 pm

Image

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:47 pm

LOL
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:50 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:Image
:lol:
“They say..that in Slonim they gathered in the town square 14,000 people...and all were machine-gunned. I ask you, is it possible to believe such a thing?...How can the world remain silent? It is probably not true.”
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Gord » Sun Oct 09, 2016 8:41 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:Image
It's pronounced "Yuge". "Yuge Jhina."
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:05 pm

From Slate, reporting on a CBS/YouGov poll, the findings of which are in line with the POLITICO/MorningConsult poll: after late-week polling, CBS/YouGov
“recontacted” participants in Ohio and Pennsylvania on the Oct. 7 and Oct. 8 to ask them about the recording. Among Trump supporters who had heard about the tape, 91 percent in Ohio and 90 percent in Pennsylvania said “the tapes have had no impact on their view of Trump.” Eight percent of Trump supporters said the tape makes them think less of Trump, while two percent—America’s finest—think more highly of him. . . .

Where things get hairy for Trump is among undecided voters and those currently supporting third parties. “[A]mong those in Ohio and Pennsylvania who are undecided or supporting third-party candidates,” CBS/YouGov finds, “less than 1% think better of Trump after the tapes and 48% think worse.” Keep in mind, as well, that some people in this country—I’ve heard about this only second-hand—apparently spend their Friday nights and Saturdays doing what are known as “fun activities” beyond reading Politics Twitter and watching or listening to awful political news. Not everyone has heard the tape yet, and even if everyone had, the impact wouldn’t be fully baked into the results overnight.

Even if the recording, once fully absorbed, doesn’t send rank-and-file Republican voters fleeing from the nominee, Trump still won’t be moving in the right direction. . . .
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:45 pm

Reports tonight are that the "worse" to come, from Apprentice tapes, has Trump using the N-word repeatedly.

All over town the kids are hoisting this, the new Gadsden flag:

Image

Trump will be going nuclear tonight. Actually, he just did: he's held a press conference, billed as debate prep, with Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick, Kathleen Willey and Kathy Shelton. If you're my age, you know what this is all about.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:32 am

Tonight I wonder how Jim R is feeling about the prediction he made when he started this thread.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:59 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Tonight I wonder how Jim R is feeling about the prediction he made when he started this thread.
He's delusional. He still thinks Trump is gonna win.

:lol:
“They say..that in Slonim they gathered in the town square 14,000 people...and all were machine-gunned. I ask you, is it possible to believe such a thing?...How can the world remain silent? It is probably not true.”
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:04 am

He will most likely be one of those jabbing with his pitchfork on 9 November 'cuz the election was rigged and stolen, eh.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:12 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:He will most likely be one of those jabbing with his pitchfork on 9 November 'cuz the election was rigged and stolen, eh.
There will be some blame heaped on Jews.

And Pyrro.
“They say..that in Slonim they gathered in the town square 14,000 people...and all were machine-gunned. I ask you, is it possible to believe such a thing?...How can the world remain silent? It is probably not true.”
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:16 am

Well, Pyrrho, of course. He's a Jew, right?
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:21 am

Don't forget YouTube! :oldman:
.
Lard, save me from your followers.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:45 am

scrmbldggs wrote:Don't forget YouTube! :oldman:

He will post a video blaming Jews and calling all the pollsters LIARS.
“They say..that in Slonim they gathered in the town square 14,000 people...and all were machine-gunned. I ask you, is it possible to believe such a thing?...How can the world remain silent? It is probably not true.”
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:10 am

Gaslighting, whether to do with the Holocaust or the presidential campaign, does seem to reach a limit.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Gord » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:22 am

On October 11th, Nate Silver made a post over on his website, 538, about how men and women were voting differently: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... 6-forecast
Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
If you look at the candidate for whom women are voting and compare that to the candidate for whom men are voting, it's pretty saddening.
Clinton leads Trump by 15 percentage points among women while trailing him by 5 points among men.
That's right, if women didn't have the vote, Trump would be winning this election. The predicted outcome of a male-only vote would have Trump winning 350 electoral seats, and Clinton winning only 188.

But the reverse seems a great deal less shocking to me: When you look at only women voters, Clinton would win 458 electoral seats to Trump's 80. If only women were allowed to vote, the Democrats would even take Alaska, South Dakota, and Texas!

Women are keeping Trump from winning. It's not the men. Men are, in the words of a lot of women, "{!#%@} idiots". I'm offended by that. Not by them saying it -- by it being so obviously true.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:23 am

Trump supporters have begun to call for the repeal of the 19th Amendment based on these data. I {!#%@} you not.

I hope they keep pushing this idea. Women already stand between us and disaster. "Repeal the 19th Amendment" can only improve the situation.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:39 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Trump supporters have begun to call for the repeal of the 19th Amendment based on these data. I {!#%@} you not.
Surely you jest....... :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:42 am

No, I don't; I will look for a link.

With the dropping of Billy Bush, Trump has shown that he is good for two things: destroying Bushes - and, The Grauniad confirming that he will harass the NY Times with a lawsuit over tonight's stories, keeping lawyers employed.

That the Republicans cannot throw this bum out is of staggering stupidity - and, given my predilections, a thing of beauty.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:43 am

"It was still at the stage of clubs and fists, hurrah, tala"

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:55 am

Just today, about this man who began his campaign vilifying Mexicans, we have sexual assault and harassment charges concerning (just now) a PEOPLE magazine reporter at Mar-a-Lago, Miss Teen USA pageant contestants, a Miss Washington, a Miss Arizona, two women interviewed by the Times, and a women accompanying a photographer at Mar-a-Lago. We also have a video with his comment about a 10-year-old girl that in 10 years he'd be dating her.

Trump has said he will sue those making accusations and organizations reporting them. His campaign announced tonight that a lawsuit is to be filed against the NY Times.

If these accusations are true, they make him a liar in his answer about sexual assault, given to Anderson Cooper during Sunday's debate. In fact, most likely, that statement, outrageous to those making these charges, prompted people at least to come forward.

As much as 40% of the US electorate, in polling, and around 90% of Republicans, including most party leaders, have supported this.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:56 am

just gonna leave this here

Image

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:06 am

Jeff_36 wrote:just gonna leave this here
just now, former Miss Utah in Miss USA pageant - unwanted kissing

Priebus reported to be standing by Trump and helping Bannon, Bossie, et al plot war against all and lawsuits . . .
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:12 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:just gonna leave this here
just now, former Miss Utah in Miss USA pageant - unwanted kissing
No mention of tic-tacs?
Priebus reported to be standing by Trump and helping Bannon, Bossie, et al plot war against all and lawsuits . . .
I'm worried. This would be a great opportunity fro Trump to claim that Clinton paid these accusers to come forward and suggest some kind of a grand conspiracy...... :roll:

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:17 am

Of course. But be real.

The dark issue is the 35% of the electorate firmly behind Trump, who already believe that the election is rigged and are already saying that they won't accept the results. I don't think that this will end well.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:34 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote: The dark issue is the 35% of the electorate firmly behind Trump, who already believe that the election is rigged and are already saying that they won't accept the results. I don't think that this will end well.
What do you propose? A trailer park revolution? the Storming of the Applebees? They'll go back to where they came from and keep bitching.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:37 am

There'll be a Breitbart something to goad them along. How long can they stay hyper-agitated? I don't know. This is the pretty obvious logic of the Tea Party. Would they form their own party - Trump, Cruz, Bannon, Breitbart, Drudge, Stormfront et al - or snag the GOP forcing moderate/conservative GOPers to create a new party? I don't know. But already Ryan's strategy is to hold the House so we can have 4 more years of Republican insanity. It will not be easy for Clinton to govern, I shouldn't imagine.

I propose changing the 2nd Amendment to take away their pitchforks, for starters.
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:48 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote: Would they form their own party - Trump, Cruz, Bannon, Breitbart, Drudge, Stormfront et al
Cruz and Trump would not be caught dead in the same room as one another. Never. Cruz, for all his insanity and extremism, is very much an orthodox Republican who favors neo-liberal economics, while Trump seems to take his fiscal cues, vague as they are, from the his bedfellows in the European far right.

-
or snag the GOP forcing moderate/conservative GOPers to create a new party? I don't know.


No chance. When Trump loses spectacularly his red-hatted followers will vanish with him into the fog of memory. It will take 2016 to restore the GOP to sanity.

But already Ryan's strategy is to hold the House so we can have 4 more years of Republican insanity. It will not be easy for Clinton to govern, I shouldn't imagine.
that much is true.

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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:59 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote: Would they form their own party - Trump, Cruz, Bannon, Breitbart, Drudge, Stormfront et al
Cruz and Trump would not be caught dead in the same room as one another. Never. Cruz, for all his insanity and extremism, is very much an orthodox Republican who favors neo-liberal economics, while Trump seems to take his fiscal cues, vague as they are, from the his bedfellows in the European far right.
Except Cruz is campaigning for Trump and won't withdraw his endorsement - but I didn't mean individuals - rather, extreme Tea Party + extreme Pitchfork. Most of this, contra some of what I was thinking last spring and many analysts still insist on, has to do with racial and gender-based fears/anger about a changing world, changing power and dynamics, changing standards. Unaccepting white men are likely to be as unaccepting of the first female president as they were of the first black president. Also Tea Party crazies. They converge at point trump.

As to your point about Cruz, here's an idea: look up who's running as Trump's VP, check out the dude's record, and find out whom he supported in the primaries. Just sayin'.
Jeff_36 wrote:
or snag the GOP forcing moderate/conservative GOPers to create a new party? I don't know.


No chance. When Trump loses spectacularly his red-hatted followers will vanish with him into the fog of memory. It will take 2016 to restore the GOP to sanity.
Well, there was no chance they'd nominate Trump, yet here we are.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional. And the going has gotten weird. I am not making predictions but looking at fault lines and possibilities. One point here is the damage this has done to the Republican party - revealing in stark terms what their inner dreams consist of, splits and fights and quarrels and blame and counter-blame, wrecked careers and spoilt relationships; for months you've had insiders like Mike Murphy, Rick Wilson, Stuart Stevens, Nicolle Wallace warning about Trump - and this morning I was reading that House Republicans are starting to blame . . . Ryan . . . for the debacle. But do you think John Kasich is about to go into post-election partnership with the Trump wing? I don't.

I think you're way too sanguine: what the hell does it mean "to restore the GOP to sanity"? They've been insane for years. Trump is simply the love-child of the party of no. The ugly Id getting what it wanted. Yours is a false dream of some heroic integrity and staunch rationalism that left the station for sure by the time W came along, if not long before (you've heard of the Southern Strategy, you've looked at electoral maps over the years?). The crazies have been partying and getting wilder and wilder for the past 8 years, enraged about the first black president, rampant socialism, changing mores and a world they can't comprehend. {!#%@} 'em.

Anyway, there's an exquisite symmetry at play. The party of the Muslim ban and dancing Muslims, birtherism, Mexican rapists, and rampant misogyny has had the tables turned on it by 1) a Muslim Gold Star parent, 2) a Latina pageant winner, and 3) women sexually assaulted by its candidate, who is about to lose, to quote Elizabeth Warren, to a girl, bigly.
Jeff_36 wrote:
But already Ryan's strategy is to hold the House so we can have 4 more years of Republican insanity. It will not be easy for Clinton to govern, I shouldn't imagine.
that much is true.
Which is the foundation point for many other wild and crazy but possible scenarios.

Hey, what about my idea of a pitchfork ban? :)
"It was still at the stage of clubs and fists, hurrah, tala"

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Statistical Mechanic
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:10 pm

Man does Josh Marshall nail the situation (read carefully Jeff :)):
All of it of course comes back to a simple reality. This is the consequence of a major political party tethering itself and its fate to a deeply damaged psyche. Not just the entire party but the entire country is forced into the chaos and drama that might only exist in such a person's head and for his family members and work associates. People with severe personality disorders create drama and chaos around them. They create more when placed under stress. This is one of the most basic and enduring facts of human experience. We've seen it play out with Trump. As we've discussed in recent weeks, everyone who crosses into Trump's orbit, into his gravitational pull, gets damaged. No one gets out unhurt. . . . Like family members living in the home of an abuser our sense of what is normal starts to get blunted and deformed under the weight of abuse. The whole country is damaged in a way that won't soon lift under the best of circumstances.
"It was still at the stage of clubs and fists, hurrah, tala"

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Paul Anthony
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Re: Trump will win!

Post by Paul Anthony » Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:26 pm

People who say ALWAYS and NEVER are usually wrong, part of the time.
Science answers questions, Philosophy questions answers.
Make sense, not war.