Trump will win!

Discussions
User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:45 pm

I will say this, too, that there is reason to believe that Ryan was never what he was cracked up to be - and that the House GOP caucus is basically an American replay of King of Hearts - lunatics impersonating political representatives.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:50 pm

Well, from what I remember Ryan fell into the job. Not exactly an endorsement of his political skills.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:55 pm

I know SM is not a fan but apparently Beto is giving Texas Republicans the night sweats:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanity ... ection/amp

I take their disquiet with a great deal of pleasure but in the end Cruz got re-elected. Now, I loathe Cruz almost as much as I loathe the Donald but apparently his charms still work on the natives. I plant Texas in the solidly Republican group. Perhaps that changes in a few years when demographics start to catch up with the voting populace but I will be shocked if Texas goes blue in 2020 or 2024.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:58 pm

I think that the situation in Texas is more a case of a surprise in the degree to which the (Republican) suburbs are drifting away from the president and thus the GOP - and concerns about how far this will go - rather than about Beto O'Rourke per se. The Republicans have had their eye on the growth of the Latino population and electoral and didn't foresee this suburbs problem hitting them from behind. If there are bona fide battles across Texas in 2020, even if the state's electoral votes stay with the Republicans, that's a very bad thing for Trump & Co. Texas isn't supposed to take much effort, or money, for them.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:14 am

Jeff Bezos may not be as brilliant as he considers himself - or at least may have some blind spots.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:19 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:58 pm
I think that the situation in Texas is more a case of a surprise in the degree to which the (Republican) suburbs are drifting away from the president and thus the GOP - and concerns about how far this will go - rather than about Beto O'Rourke per se. The Republicans have had their eye on the growth of the Latino population and electoral and didn't foresee this suburbs problem hitting them from behind. If there are bona fide battles across Texas in 2020, even if the state's electoral votes stay with the Republicans, that's a very bad thing for Trump & Co. Texas isn't supposed to take much effort, or money, for them.
I think focusing on the Latino population seems to work, did I see that 38% of Latinos in Texas vote Republican? Or is that me confusing that with something else?

The Suburban population in Texas turning blue isn’t just a Texas problem but something going on nationwide. That’s what helped push the Blue Wave, particularly white college-educated women switching allegiances.

I think Beto getting close to Cruz has this crowd worried. I think it’s how they perceive him.

I doubt he is a serious contender to run in 2020 but what if the eventual nominee taps him for VP? It’s just speculation on my part but I consider it possible. He’s young, progressive, he did well against Cruz, all those things might make him attractive. This is particularly true if he pushes Texas. Maybe the electoral votes stay Republican but what if riding his coattails gets a few more seats filed with Democrats? It’s worth exploring.

We’ll see. I stopped trying to be certain after 2016.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

User avatar
Jeff_36
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5240
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:51 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:45 pm
I will say this, too, that there is reason to believe that Ryan was never what he was cracked up to be - and that the House GOP caucus is basically an American replay of King of Hearts - lunatics impersonating political representatives.
Ryan was hyped up in some quarters of the media as a fearsome Machiavellian climber who would have his way with Trump and basically bully him into doing whatever he wanted him too. McConnell too. I shared this view. I thought Trump was a pathetic coward who lacked the intelligence or th guts to last long in a shark tank like DC.

I failed to take into account the lack of self-respect that the Republicans have - how willingly they would prostrate themselves before a man who clearly despises them (and anyone but himself).

User avatar
Jeff_36
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5240
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:55 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:19 am

I think focusing on the Latino population seems to work, did I see that 38% of Latinos in Texas vote Republican? Or is that me confusing that with something else?
Texas basically imported a large section of the Mexican middle class in the early 1900's. A lot of Texan Hispanics have been there for several generations and are more financially successful than Latinos elsewhere. They tend to lean Republican, at least historically.

However, as a rule, the GOP does not break 50% with the Texas Latino vote unless the candidate's last name is Bush.
I doubt he is a serious contender to run in 2020 but what if the eventual nominee taps him for VP? It’s just speculation on my part but I consider it possible. He’s young, progressive, he did well against Cruz, all those things might make him attractive. This is particularly true if he pushes Texas. Maybe the electoral votes stay Republican but what if riding his coattails gets a few more seats filed with Democrats? It’s worth exploring.
Beto is a pathetic joke. I have no idea what his defining principles are, if he has any. He seems desperate to prove his wokeness, which comes across as cringe-inducing for a 46 year old man. The fact that his claim to fame is a loss to Ted Cruz says everything.

We must also take into account the fact that he looks like a weak little nerd. He would be an easy target for the GOP meme machine.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:08 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:19 am
He’s young, not progressive
ftfy
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:09 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:55 am
I have no idea what his defining principles are,
He stands for enthusiasm.

Sherrod Brown, I tell you.

Btw W was a war criminal. Just sayin'.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:55 am


However, as a rule, the GOP does not break 50% with the Texas Latino vote unless the candidate's last name is Bush.
That’s really not an issue. Getting 38% of the vote of a minority is good for the Republican Party. Keep in mind what the Republican Party turned into in the last few decades.
Beto is a pathetic joke. I have no idea what his defining principles are, if he has any. He seems desperate to prove his wokeness, which comes across as cringe-inducing for a 46 year old man. The fact that his claim to fame is a loss to Ted Cruz says everything.
Missing the point on this one. Yes, he lost but he got a hell of a lot closer. This is why Texas Republicans are concerned about him, he pushed Cruz in a historically red state. This is why he gives them fits.
We must also take into account the fact that he looks like a weak little nerd. He would be an easy target for the GOP meme machine.
Looks aren’t everything, Jeff. And Cruz looks like a younger version of Steve Bannon minus the years of drinking. He’s also a colossal douchebag who I loathe almost as much as Trump.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:08 am
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:19 am
He’s young, not progressive
ftfy
:D
Not a fan, I get it.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

Balmoral95
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3250
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:31 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:08 am
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:19 am
He’s young, not progressive
ftfy
:D
Not a fan, I get it.
Methinks the jury is still out on this guy; it's not his time just yet...

User avatar
Jeff_36
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5240
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:40 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:09 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:55 am
I have no idea what his defining principles are,
He stands for enthusiasm.
So does Biden. However, unlike Beto, Biden

1. Actually wins Senate Races

2. Doesn't look like the Sandy Hook Shooter

3. Can delve into concrete policy rather than simply vacillate endlessly.
Sherrod Brown, I tell you.
My favorites are Bloomberg, Brown, and Biden - in that order. Bloomberg won't run if Biden does.

I think Brown would be a fantastic candidate. He can appeal to those struck by economic inequality without resorting to Venezualan socialism like AOC.
Btw W was a war criminal. Just sayin'.
If by W you mean Wolfowitz, I would say you are likely correct :lol:

In all seriousness, GWB was sold a bag of goods by a crowd of damn fools who had no idea what they were getting themselves into, as well as Cheney who, IMO knew the score and stood to profit.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:06 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:40 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:09 am
Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:55 am
I have no idea what his defining principles are,
He stands for enthusiasm.
So does Biden. However, unlike Beto, Biden

1. Actually wins Senate Races

2. Doesn't look like the Sandy Hook Shooter

3. Can delve into concrete policy rather than simply vacillate endlessly.
Biden will have great difficulty in the primary, if he runs, with a large part of the party due in part to his vacuous enthusiasm and in part to memory of the Clarence Thomas hearing. He comes off like your creepy uncle who tickled you too much when you were a toddler and now grabs the teenagers' butts during family photo time.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:40 am
My favorites are Bloomberg, Brown, and Biden - in that order. Bloomberg won't run if Biden does.
Bloomberg can't get the nomination, and that's a good thing.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:40 am
If by W you mean Wolfowitz, I would say you are likely correct :lol:
I stand corrected: W +W.
Jeff_36 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:40 am
In all seriousness, GWB was sold a bag of goods by a crowd of damn fools who had no idea what they were getting themselves into, as well as Cheney who, IMO knew the score and stood to profit.
He was the (subverbal) unelected chief executive who, along with overseeing war crimes, presided over Katrina ("You're doing a hell of a job, Brownie"), an effort to dismantle social security, the first big wave of voter suppression since the civil rights era, NCLB, and the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression. Historians, being charitable IMO, generally rank him as failing or below average, down around Nixon and the no-names. (Pappy fares a bit better.)
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:12 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 am
Beto is a pathetic joke. I have no idea what his defining principles are, if he has any. He seems desperate to prove his wokeness, which comes across as cringe-inducing for a 46 year old man. The fact that his claim to fame is a loss to Ted Cruz says everything.
Missing the point on this one. Yes, he lost but he got a hell of a lot closer. This is why Texas Republicans are concerned about him, he pushed Cruz in a historically red state. This is why he gives them fits.
I do not like O'Rourke but agree that he significantly overperformed in '16. His was an impressive campaign and an excellent result. Going in, he had no chance but wound up in a tight race.
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 am
Looks aren’t everything, Jeff. And Cruz looks like a younger version of Steve Bannon minus the years of drinking. He’s also a colossal douchebag who I loathe almost as much as Trump.
It has been proven, by Twitter, that he is the Zodiac killer. And he's the most reviled individual in Congress.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

Balmoral95
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3250
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:13 am

Either way one plays the GWB hand ("He was an amiable dolt who got conned", or, "He played the amiable dolt so the others could take a fall for his idiocy") he still comes off as unfit for the Oval Office....

User avatar
TJrandom
Has No Life
Posts: 12214
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:55 am
Custom Title: Salt of the earth
Location: Pacific coast outside of Tokyo bay.

Re: Trump will win!

Post by TJrandom » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:14 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:07 pm
This piece in the right-wing Washington Times explains the disappointment of movement conservatives in Congress, making the case that the 115th Congress was not business as usual but prolifically incapable of achieving many party and lawmaker goals despite nearly full control: "How the Republican-controlled Congress failed President Trump".
[/quote]

I take a contrarian view… the Republicans did not fail Trump, but rather they supported him by limiting the lasting damage that he could do. America is better off for their service and Trump will be less harshly judged by history. A matter of degrees of course – whether he will simply be the worst President, or the WORST President.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:26 am

Howard Schultz is already giving the GOP its 2020 talking points: Mark Thiessen, right-wing flack and former speechwriter for Rumsfeld and W
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:27 am

TJrandom wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:14 am
I take a contrarian view… the Republicans did not fail Trump, but rather they supported him by limiting the lasting damage that he could do. America is better off for their service and Trump will be less harshly judged by history. A matter of degrees of course – whether he will simply be the worst President, or the WORST President.
Incompetence has its benefits.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:49 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:26 am
Howard Schultz is already giving the GOP its 2020 talking points: Mark Thiessen, right-wing flack and former speechwriter for Rumsfeld and W
Dr K comments on the strange phenomenon behind this:
Why is American politics so dysfunctional? Whatever the deeper roots of our distress, the proximate cause is ideological extremism: Powerful factions are committed to false views of the world, regardless of the evidence.

Notice that I said factions, plural. There’s no question that the most disruptive, dangerous extremists are on the right. But there’s another faction whose obsessions and refusal to face reality have also done a great deal of harm.

But I’m not talking about the left. Radical leftists are virtually nonexistent in American politics; can you think of any prominent figure who wants us to move to the left of, say, Denmark? No, I’m talking about fanatical centrists.

Over the past few days we’ve been treated to the ludicrous yet potentially destructive spectacle of Howard Schultz, the Starbucks billionaire, insisting that he’s the president we need despite his demonstrable policy ignorance. Schultz obviously thinks he knows a lot of things that just aren’t so. Yet his delusions of knowledge aren’t that special. For the most part, they follow conventional centrist doctrine.
"Attack of the Fanatical Centrists: Of obsessions, vanity and delusions of superiority."
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

Balmoral95
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3250
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:32 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:49 am
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:26 am
Howard Schultz is already giving the GOP its 2020 talking points: Mark Thiessen, right-wing flack and former speechwriter for Rumsfeld and W
Dr K comments on the strange phenomenon behind this:
Why is American politics so dysfunctional? Whatever the deeper roots of our distress, the proximate cause is ideological extremism: Powerful factions are committed to false views of the world, regardless of the evidence.

Notice that I said factions, plural. There’s no question that the most disruptive, dangerous extremists are on the right. But there’s another faction whose obsessions and refusal to face reality have also done a great deal of harm.

But I’m not talking about the left. Radical leftists are virtually nonexistent in American politics; can you think of any prominent figure who wants us to move to the left of, say, Denmark? No, I’m talking about fanatical centrists.

Over the past few days we’ve been treated to the ludicrous yet potentially destructive spectacle of Howard Schultz, the Starbucks billionaire, insisting that he’s the president we need despite his demonstrable policy ignorance. Schultz obviously thinks he knows a lot of things that just aren’t so. Yet his delusions of knowledge aren’t that special. For the most part, they follow conventional centrist doctrine.
"Attack of the Fanatical Centrists: Of obsessions, vanity and delusions of superiority."
Just when I was waxing nostalgic for Carter and his cardigan fireside chats :lol: :lol:

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:56 am

Individual-1 is mental:
On Feb. 15th, the committee will come back and if they don't have a wall, I don't even want to waste my time reading what they have because it's a waste of time. Because the only thing that works for security and safety for our country is a wall. . . . We're building a lot of wall. I'm not waiting for this committee.

By the way, if you go to Tijuana, and you take down that wall, we'll have so many people coming into our country that Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall – she'll be begging for a wall. She will say, "Mr. President, please, please, give us a wall."
The psycho-sexual demons assailing this fat clown (his fantasy that Pelosi will bow to him and beg) - and which he parades in front of the world - are things of horror.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5337
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:40 am

Dominating language in the absence of any actual dominance.
Trump has obviously decided that the Wall will fund his reelection campaign for 2020 only if it doesn't get build.

Balmoral95
Persistent Poster
Posts: 3250
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Balmoral95 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:53 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:56 am
Individual-1 is mental:
On Feb. 15th, the committee will come back and if they don't have a wall, I don't even want to waste my time reading what they have because it's a waste of time. Because the only thing that works for security and safety for our country is a wall. . . . We're building a lot of wall. I'm not waiting for this committee.

By the way, if you go to Tijuana, and you take down that wall, we'll have so many people coming into our country that Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall – she'll be begging for a wall. She will say, "Mr. President, please, please, give us a wall."
The psycho-sexual demons assailing this fat clown (his fantasy that Pelosi will bow to him and beg) - and which he parades in front of the world - are things of horror.
Indeed, he is disturbed profoundly (to put it charitably).

Had a convo with (what should be) a woman fanatic Rep. today.... Suburban middle-class, god-fearing, and cetera.... DJT re-election terrifies here.... but any voting alternative eludes/terrifies her... she's angry and scared and can''t find the words to fix blame, or an alternate solution... sees the gov't shutdown as a major mistake, has friends burned by it.... thinks Obama should have been whacked, but has two ne're-do-well children who benefited mightily from the ACA....

These are folk who really thrive only on the stability of everything. They want to be told what to do, when to to it and why it's proper to do so. And the first person in politics who comes along and says, "the Niggers are uppity, the Mexicans are rapists, and the Jews stole Judy Garland"s ruby slippers" are going to get their vote.

User avatar
Upton_O_Goode
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5102
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:15 am
Custom Title: Morgan de Veldt
Location: The Land Formerly Known as Pangea

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:39 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:12 pm

Take the ACA. Easy win, right? The problem is that repealing it without replacing it would be political suicide. The House and Senate passed repeals during Obama’s presidency because they were secure in the knowledge that he would veto those bills. Once they had a “president” who would sign them they became a deer in the headlights. It only took what? Three Senators? Who failed to pass the repeal. So the photo opp and fanfare turned into a yyyyyyuuuuuuugggggggeeeee embarrassment.


So, the wall was a problem for the budget hawks and the sane members who realized that a political rally point wasn’t worth the hassle of putting into practice.

So, here is where we stand. It would not surprise me if the government gets shutdown again.
And they didn't even NEED a super-majority to repeal ACA, since Mitch McConnell arbitrarily abolished the cloture rule for that debate. They couldn't even get a SIMPLE majority to do it.

But I would be (mildly) surprised if Trump shuts the government down again. Pelosi is standing firm on the Wall, and he doesn't want to put his paw into that trap again. He had to gnaw it off last time to get out. So, it looks like we're headed for an emergency declaration that will cause the whole issue to disappear into the court system and at last bring Trump the peace he so ardently desires, at the cost of marginally increasing his disapproval rating. Could have ended worse. That's the genius of compromise: we get a win-win.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)

User avatar
scrmbldggs
Real Skeptic
Posts: 28703
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 7:55 am
Location: sometimes

Re: Trump will win!

Post by scrmbldggs » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:04 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:56 am
Individual-1 is mental:
...Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall – she'll be begging for a wall. She will say, "Mr(/s). President, please, please, give us a wall."
...
She be talking to his successor, following the requests of those passing by his future exercise yard. :twisted:
.
Lard, save me from your followers.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:07 pm

>> at last bring Trump the peace he so ardently desires

I think Trump seeks disruption, quarreling, and conflict, like all demagogues. His campaigns of demonization, his popularity (as far as it extends), and his ego require an atmosphere of fear and turbulence. In short, if the Wall disappears into the courts, as McConnell might quietly hope it does, hold on for Trump's next move.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:35 pm

current Democratic field for 2020?

Running
Cory Booker
Pete Buttigieg
John Delaney
Julian Castro
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang

Likely to run
Joe Biden
Sherrod Brown
John Hickenlooper
Bernie Sanders

Possibly will run
Michael Bloomberg
Beto O’Rourke
Amy Klobucher
Steve Bullock
Eric Slalwell
10 or so others

Betting markets list the top 5, in order of likelihood of being nominated, as follows: Harris, Sanders, Biden, O'Rourke, Warren. Kiplinger rates Biden most likely, followed by Sanders, O'Rourke, Klobucher, and Brown.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Jeff_36
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5240
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeff_36 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:40 pm

Booker throws in.

God Almighty, will I have a few things to say when I get home from work. Booker is the worst option out of the feild by a long shot.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:48 pm

Terrible, to be sure, but worse than Marianne Williamson? :)
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:55 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:07 pm
>> at last bring Trump the peace he so ardently desires

I think Trump seeks disruption, quarreling, and conflict, like all demagogues. His campaigns of demonization, his popularity (as far as it extends), and his ego require an atmosphere of fear and turbulence. In short, if the Wall disappears into the courts, as McConnell might quietly hope it does, hold on for Trump's next move.
It's like there's a script for this shite: "After Caving On Wall, Trump Plans To Enliven Base With Anti-Abortion Talk At SOTU"

(and related: "How the religious right gained unprecedented access to Trump")
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:31 pm

. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:41 pm

From your article:
“The legislation in New York and Virginia is really forcing his hand and he’s reacting to people who have just gone off the rails. I don’t think he’s going to mention it for political reasons because I don’t think it will help him much politically,” Falwell told Politico. “I think he’s doing it because he really believes it’s important to protect life.”
Image
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: After being pimped comes-----

Re: Trump will win!

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:02 pm

Falwell: "I don't think he's going to mention....." then "I think he's doing it.........."

Typical religious non-sequiturs in seratim......just like Trump. ...............a n d.............. just like Trump:

Falwell + BS = Redundant.
Real Name: bobbo the contrarian existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:07 pm

Sure, why not?
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politi ... c2gXvEeDgo

Is Putin violating the agreement? Probably. But now he gets to do it in public.

Obviously Trump no longer fears the pee tape.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:44 pm

WaPo "Power Rankings" of candidates for Democrats' 2020 nomination:

POSITION CHALLENGER CHANGE OVER LAST RANKING
1. Kamala D. Harris No change [First ranking]
2. Joe Biden "
3. Elizabeth Warren "
4. Sherrod Brown "
5. Beto O’Rourke "
6. Bernie Sanders "
7. Amy Klobuchar "
8. Cory Booker "
9. Kirsten Gillibrand "
10. Michael Bloomberg
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 27737
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Statistical Mechanic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:45 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:07 pm
Sure, why not?
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politi ... c2gXvEeDgo

Is Putin violating the agreement? Probably. But now he gets to do it in public.

Obviously Trump no longer fears the pee tape.
I don't think Putin would disagree with terminating the treaty. Pee tape still safe.
. . . all right we are two nations . . .

User avatar
ElectricMonk
Has More Than 5K Posts
Posts: 5337
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:21 pm
Custom Title: The Baby-eating Bishop

Re: Trump will win!

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:25 pm

Yep, this is what Putin wants - instead of getting the international community to condemn Russia for breaking the treaty, the US is getting the blame, and Putin can paint Trump as a warmonger.

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has No Life
Posts: 12714
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am
Custom Title: Lost in Translation
Location: Safely stored in my own mind

Re: Trump will win!

Post by Jeffk 1970 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:30 pm

Yer both right. I didn’t think that one through. Putin is miles ahead of Trump in every way.
Question for Groening by a reporter:
“Mr. Groening, what do you say to those who still deny the Holocaust?”

Groening:
“Nothing. They are hopelessly lost.”


Harvard Crimson (on why it refused to run an add by Bradley Smith):
“(It is) vicious propaganda based on utter BS that has been discredited time and time again.”