Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:40 am

Bercow is the Speaker of the House of Commons and that is a strictly neutral position (see Wikipedia ..."Speakers remain strictly non-partisan and renounce all affiliation with their former political parties when taking office and afterwards. The Speaker does not take part in debate or vote (except to break ties; and even then, the convention is that the speaker casts the tie-breaking vote according to Speaker Denison's rule***). Aside from duties relating to presiding over the House ...".
Bercow has decided that he can break this convention with impunity and ride roughshod over Parliamentary procedure. He doesn't have to claim what he isn't or is doing - the facts are there for all to see. He is breaking every rule in the book.
The removal of the no-deal option would be a gift for the EU negotiators. If the UK legislates against no-deal then it has precisely zero ground upon which to stand. Removal of the no-deal option leaves the UK with no alternatives but to meekly accept EU-determined conditions or not leave at all. It's stupid - it's a position no one with an ounce of common sense would accept.

*** The principle is to always vote in favour of further debate, or, where it has been previously decided to have no further debate or in some specific instances, to vote in favour of the status quo. Thus, the Speaker will vote:
... against the final reading of a bill
... in favour of earlier readings of bills
... against amendments to bills
...against motions of no confidence

Bercow's position is proactive. The status quo is that a no-deal option exists whether it is used or not.
Try to imagine if the Queen made such statements. Her position is constitutional - she has precisely zero executive power. The last monarch who attempted to interfere with the rights of Parliament had his head cut off.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:06 am

> it's a position no one with an ounce of common sense would accept.

Except for those who don't want Brexit.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:33 am

Precisely.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:14 pm

Next vote is today. Rory Whatsisname is running around attempting to form an alliance with anyone who'll back off in his favour. That's not going to happen.
Matt Hancock, the last but one to be eliminated, and Dominic Raab, who went out last night, have both expressed support for Boris Johnson (ie gizzajob, Boris). I think the future is clear.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:38 pm

Yesterday's result was ...
Boris Johnson 126
Jeremy Hunt 46
Michael Gove 41
Rory Stewart 37
Sajid Javid 33
Dominic Raab 30
Dominic Raab's votes are now up for grabs, and Rory Stewart has already approached Michael Gove about a deal between the two of them. For once, Gove had a bit of backbone and told him to piss off.
It is difficult to see how Johnson can be beaten, and today's vote should make that even clearer. We'll see.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:42 pm

Poodle, if a majority is achieved, does that person become PM, or is an election held?

And is it typical in UK to have debates where everyone is sitting in high chairs like babies?

This is what I was referring to about Brexit Party favoritism on the EU ballot.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:15 pm

The elimination contest continues until there are only two left standing. After a final vote, the winner becomes the leader of the Conservative Party and, as they happen to be the party in power, that automatically means that the winner is also the new Prime Minister. There is no need to hold a General Election.

Meanwhile, the latest results ...
Boris Johnson gained another 17 votes and finished on 143.
Jeremy Hunt is now on 54,
Michael Gove is on 51.
Sajid Javid is on 38.
Rory Stewart lost 10 votes, finishing on 27, and is eliminated.
Johnson is all but impregnable, unless he drops a huge clanger in the next few hours.
The high chairs were the BBC's idea, apparently to enable the best manspreading displays. Rory Stewart won that one hands down. Well - not HANDS down, but you know what I mean.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:14 am

There will be two votes today, each one chucking out a single candidate. The surviving two names will go forward to a vote by all Conservative Party members to decide upon the new party leader and, hence, Prime Minister. It is difficult to see that NOT being Boris Johnson, but anything's possible in UK politics at the moment.
In case you're wondering why any of this is important ... The EU elections a little while ago put a majority Brexit-favouring group of British MEPs into the European Parliament. The Conservative Party Leadership election is now certain to put a genuine Brexiteer (rather than a lukewarm Mrs May) into Downing Street and, probably, the most enthusiastic Brexiteer of the lot - inevitably followed by a Cabinet shake-up to put Brexiteers in charge of the various government departments. The UK political executive has been realigned (at last) to execute the will of the people as expressed in the Brexit referendum rather than trying to circumvent it.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:12 pm

Sajid Javid is out.
Johnson got 157, Gove 61 and Hunt 59. There will be another vote today to decide the last two, but do the math - Johnson already has more support than the other two put together. And, just to spice everything up, only two votes separate Gove and Hunt.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:20 pm

And ... the final result ...
Johnson got 160 votes (more than half).
Jeremy Hunt got 77 ...
... and Michael Gove got 75.
So the run-off is between Johnson and Hunt. Considering that Johnson just got more votes than the other two combined, I feel it safe to say that he will be the next Prime Minister - the worst possible result if you happen to be a member of the EU Commission.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:40 pm

Is Hunt pretending like May, or is he being more straightforward in his views?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:10 am

Hunt has, up until now, been a Remainer. The UK has been forced to polarise its position over the last year and, every time there has been some kind of measure, has been Brexit-orientated. Putting a person with Hunt's views into the PM shoes would be begging for more confusion and strife. He would, without doubt, seek a deal with the EU which would see the UK losing yet more of its ability to act as an independent entity.
The result represents, pretty accurately, the general situation - a close-run thing but, in the end, a substantial preponderance of Brexit feeling. It's no surprise. As for being straightforward ... these people are politicians and you can tell when they're lying because their lips move.
Hunt's passage through to the final event was, I strongly suspect, more to do with removing Gove from the competition than it was with any strengths shown by Hunt.
EDIT: In case anyone is puzzled by that answer, a Johnson/Gove competition has history ...
https://www.politico.eu/article/a-very- ... s-johnson/

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Re: Brexit

Post by Goody67 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:09 pm

Poodle wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:20 pm
And ... the final result ...
Johnson got 160 votes (more than half).
Jeremy Hunt got 77 ...
... and Michael Gove got 75.
So the run-off is between Johnson and Hunt. Considering that Johnson just got more votes than the other two combined, I feel it safe to say that he will be the next Prime Minister - the worst possible result if you happen to be a member of the EU Commission.
And the best result for the people who voted to leave in a referendum that was supposed to have been respected.
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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:53 am

Police called to Johnson's house, just as the final grouping is listed as Brexiter vs Remainer.

It looks like on all other issues Boris is not particularly Tory.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:39 pm

Goody67 wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:09 pm
... And the best result for the people who voted to leave in a referendum that was supposed to have been respected.
Yes. And, finally, IS being respected. And not before time.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:42 pm

MikeN wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:53 am
Police called to Johnson's house, just as the final grouping is listed as Brexiter vs Remainer.

It looks like on all other issues Boris is not particularly Tory.
Don't fall for it, MikeN. Over the next couple of weeks, there will me a million horror stories about Boris. At worst, he had an argument with his girlfriend. What's new?

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:04 pm

The will of the people should always be "respected." ................................. Even when it changes.
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Re: Brexit

Post by scrmbldggs » Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:48 pm

Even if it was changed for them? :-P
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:37 pm

Speaking of changes of mind ...
Irish PM Leo Varadkar has said that he'll be obliged to put a hard border up after Brexit (and this is the same man who said he'd never do that). I'm betting that's going to be the fault of the UK by next week.
Good Friday what?

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Re: Brexit

Post by TJrandom » Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:47 pm

Poodle wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:37 pm
Speaking of changes of mind ...
Irish PM Leo Varadkar has said that he'll be obliged to put a hard border up after Brexit (and this is the same man who said he'd never do that). I'm betting that's going to be the fault of the UK by next week.
Good Friday what?
Ya reckon that Trump gave him a call?

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Re: Brexit

Post by scrmbldggs » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:18 pm

Or freebies at International Golf Stinks & Hotel Doonbeg?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Darren Wilshak » Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:24 pm

Yeah lets have a referendum before those fool Torys destroy everything and Rapey gets our NHS and we get private medical insurance forced on us by these rapacious Americans that Brexit is forcing us towards.
"We are still waiting for anyone to rebut the main theme of the article that the decode in question and the numbers it quoted perfectly match those in the Korherr report.

Until such a rebuttal comes to light and goes through peer review the article stands the test of time. And after 10 years since the article was published both Peter (Witte) and I have moved on to other research projects. "

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sun Jun 23, 2019 6:07 am

Don't beat about the bush, Darren - say what you really think. Oh - but do remember we've already had a referendum. And who's Rapey? And ... we've never had a free NHS. The method of financing it may differ, but it's never been free and it's always been the public purse which, one way or another, has payed for it. Protecting the NHS is a matter for general elections, and there isn't a realistic winner of such a thing who is anti-NHS. On the other hand, maybe you were taking the piss - I can't tell.
As for the Good Friday Agreement, the leader of the Republic of Ireland may feel it OK to display complete ignorance about its purpose or demonstrable effect, but I'm pretty sure that the rest of the Republic will not feel the same way. Nor the rest of the world, for that matter. I'm sending for Nancy Pelosi to sort him out, I think. So, for those doubters, NOW do you see who Nancy was addressing with her GFA comments?

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:40 pm

Poodle, Varadkar has been making these statements for over a year now, since before Pelosi's statement.
I still don't see how Pelosi's demand is anything but a warning to UK to back off Brexit.
Ireland and EU don't have any trade deal to worry about. The only thing Pelosi could be threatening is a deal between UK and US, right?
The only thing that could trigger this threat is if there is a hard border between Ireland and UK, which itself could only happen with no-deal Brexit. How is Varadkar, Ireland, or EU being threatened? If anything, Pelosi's statement strengthens their negotiating position.

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:17 pm

Trump gained the nick Rapey when the allegations of same went over 10 or 11 or 12???? Love those "Women for Trump" Teeshirts. Trumps was right for too many deplorables: "When you're famous, you can do whatever you want." Heh, heh.

Some financial expert on tube yesterday. Said the financial damage for a hard brexit will be significant but that people have basically moved off the money impact and are going on the emotions of the issues raised.

I also love those emotions..............but sadly.........I'm emotionally attached to my money , so actually for rational folks like me, I'm doubly screwed. I mean...........if I where British..........does anyone say "UK'er? Don't think I've heard the term for that other than "a member of" which isn't the same thing.

Note: wierd. Posting goes crazy if I use the symbol for dollars. Didn't use to do that. Should I blame Brexit, Microsoft or Darwin????


: $$$$$$$$$
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Re: Brexit

Post by scrmbldggs » Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:25 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:17 pm
Trump gained the nick Rapey when the allegations of same went over 10 or 11 or 12???? Love those "Women for Trump" Teeshirts. Trumps was right for too many deplorables: "When you're famous, you can do whatever you want." Heh, heh.

Some financial expert on tube yesterday. Said the financial damage for a hard brexit will be significant but that people have basically moved off the $$$ impact and are going on the emotions of the issues raised.

I also love those emotions..............but sadly.........I'm emotionally attached to my $, so actually for rational folks like me, I'm doubly screwed. I mean...........if I where British..........does anyone say "UK'er? Don't think I've heard the term for that other than "a member of" which isn't the same thing.

Note: wierd. One $ symbol gives the one symbol. But lots of symbols gives this: $$$$$$$$$
Now you broke it. :glare:


:lol: I noticed you wrote: "Note: wierd. One $ symbol gives the one symbol. But lots of symbols gives this:" and then a bunch of (9) dollar signs (can't post those). It's prolly something similar to TJ using two (or more) ` symbols?
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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:37 pm

This is why we can't have nice things. Break the toys.......play with the box.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:18 am

MikeN wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:40 pm
Poodle, Varadkar has been making these statements for over a year now, since before Pelosi's statement.
I still don't see how Pelosi's demand is anything but a warning to UK to back off Brexit.
Ireland and EU don't have any trade deal to worry about. The only thing Pelosi could be threatening is a deal between UK and US, right?
The only thing that could trigger this threat is if there is a hard border between Ireland and UK, which itself could only happen with no-deal Brexit. How is Varadkar, Ireland, or EU being threatened? If anything, Pelosi's statement strengthens their negotiating position.
Well, not quite, MikeN. Varadkar has been saying that he won't shatter the Good Friday Agreement but the UK will be forced to do so by erecting the infamous hard border. Now that the UK has absolutely guaranteed that it is NOT going to do so, he's had to change tack to keep the border problems front and centre. This is the first time anyone has overtly threatened the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, and it stinks. Threatening the safety - indeed, the lives - of people who live on either side of that border in order to guarantee a fiscal arrangement is about as low as things can get.
Once again, Pelosi did not make any statements about Brexit. She warned that the GFA was not up for discussion, and the UK government was and remains in full accord with that stance.
Here's the real problem, MikeN ... the EU Commission has baldy stated that there is no other solution to the border problem after Brexit. They have continued to say this despite evidence to the contrary because it suits their political agenda. They are lying through their teeth. Take a look at Switzerland - not an EU member, but having an open border with the EU. Yes, there are reasons behind this, and Switzerland is not really comparable with the UK, but it demonstrates that such things are possible and not controlled merely by the whims of superannuated civil servants. OF COURSE an open border is possible - all it takes is the political will.
The GFA actually consists of two documents - one is between the several political parties of Northern Ireland and the other is an international agreement between the British and Irish governments (the British–Irish Agreement). Note that last bit ...the EU did NOT sign the Agreement (it had nothing to do with them) but Ireland did, in the form of Bertie Aherne, then the PM of the Republic. Closing that border constitutes the breaking of an international treaty which had and still has the support of some pretty powerful parties (eg the USA). Varadkar is threatening the existence of a vital political treaty for the sake of a commercial agreement. The EU are backing his stance. I trust that every nation on this Earth which has a treaty with the EU or with Ireland is looking at this situation and re-evaluating the definition of the word 'honesty' when it comes to commercial advantage.

EDIT: It couldn't possibly be, do you think, that certain parties are becoming a tad worried about the commercial opportunities suddenly presented to ports such as Belfast and Londonderry in the event of Brexit? No - probably not. That's just me being an old cynic.

EDIT 2: Oh - I nearly forgot. There are some 300 crossings of the Northern Ireland/ Republic of Ireland border along its 499 kilometre length (and that's only the official crossings). I challenge anyone to close it all. It's never been done to date. Perhaps a wall might do the job, eh?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:57 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 11:17 pm
...if I where British..........does anyone say "UK'er? Don't think I've heard the term for that other than "a member of" which isn't the same thing.
It's not easy. Lots of islands. This may help ...
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/H ... ifference/
... but it isn't definitive because it doesn't deal adequately with the Channel Islands (ours because they belonged to Normandy, not France, and WIlliam the Conqueror came here, not there). Loads of other similarish reasons for the Isle of Man, the Shetlands and the Orkneys, and the Hebrides came via Scotland, I think. Etcetera.
No - no one says UKer. Lots of people say English when they mean British, which annoys the Hell out of the Welsh and Scots and Northern Irish, not to mention the Manx people and the Hebrideans. But they get it wrong too, because the Hebrides (not part of Scotland) and the Isle of Man are not part of Britain. They may not be part of Great Britain either, but it gets really confusing at that point.
Occasionally, new islands are formed by volcanic eruptions somewhere in the North Sea. Iceland got the last one (Sertsey), but we retain hopes that there'll be nearer ones.
Apart from that, you know, deep in your heart, that Britain still rules the waves and owns most of the world. You do know - no, it's no good shouting and having tantrums! It's just the way it is.
This may help ...
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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:50 am

Well, maybe we'll soon have a blonde high-haired buffoon on both sides of the atlantic. Unless Boris goes down burning in a traditional british tabloid scandal fest...

Interesting times indeed.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:12 pm

Speaking of Switzerland, is it possible that members of the EU Commission MUST be terminally stupid?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/11 ... ges-shares

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Re: Brexit

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:38 pm

"I'm American." ===works. Not a Californian.

"I'm U-Kayer."====doesn't work. Got to go with an Island or part of one? Amusing. No wonder the "whole" identity thing is falling apart when you can't even identify as being part of the whole thing.

I wonder on what level, what issues/psyche, that is true? Or maybe not true at all and all that matters is the happy hour at the pub during Quiz Night? Love the English, Welsh, Ireland.....heck...I loved every pub I walked into all over the UK. Not like America at all. Huge difference. Never give up your steel tipped darts.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Darren Wilshak » Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:11 pm

The Isle of Man was once part of the Lordship of the Isles. It has the oldest parliament in the World. The Tynwald from Old Norse, 'Thing vollr.'

Nicola Sturgeon on Westmonster and how the whole thing is undemocratic, unrepresentative and adversarial. I absolutely bloody agree with her 100%. Stop Brexit now.

https://www.snp.org/nicola-sturgeons-sp ... -scotland/

By contrast, the first past the post system used at Westminster is clearly unsuited to an age of multi-party politics. And the claim that used to be made for it was that it delivered strong and stable government. Nobody looking to Westminster at present would make that case.
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Until such a rebuttal comes to light and goes through peer review the article stands the test of time. And after 10 years since the article was published both Peter (Witte) and I have moved on to other research projects. "

AHF

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Re: Brexit

Post by OlegTheBatty » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:39 pm

Darren Wilshak wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:11 pm


By contrast, the first past the post system used at Westminster is clearly unsuited to an age of multi-party politics. And the claim that used to be made for it was that it delivered strong and stable government. Nobody looking to Westminster at present would make that case.
Looking at the US, it's not much good for 2 party systems either.
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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:57 pm

Darren Wilshak wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:11 pm
By contrast, the first past the post system used at Westminster is clearly unsuited to an age of multi-party politics. And the claim that used to
Here's the problem with getting rid of first past the post, and many countries experience this:

The alternative is generally you vote for a party, and then the party gets seats based on its share of the vote.
Lots of other parties can form and get seats this way, but usually there will be a few big parties.
Generally, the party has a list of who gets seats, and people will get seats based on how many the party has won.
The problem is, if a party becomes unpopular, it is hard for it to change. The worse it does, the more senior people
get elected and everyone else is denied a seat. The only way for young blood to take over is some sort of party internal coup or to form their own party.

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Re: Brexit

Post by MikeN » Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:03 pm

Poodle, does 'British Isles' include Ireland?

I tried to find Varadkar's latest statements, and I keep getting things from a year ago which sound the same.

>certain parties are becoming a tad worried about the commercial opportunities suddenly presented to ports such as Belfast and Londonderry

I've been suggesting this for a while, though if they were that smart, they would be running the EU differently. It's not just NI, but the other side would also see a boost. Varadkar is serving EU interests and not Ireland's.

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Poodle
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:39 am

MikeN wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:03 pm
Poodle, does 'British Isles' include Ireland?
Yes, it does (and the Isle of Man, the Hebrides etc.) - but you have to bear in mind that it's a geographical entity, not a political one.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:51 am

Darren Wilshak wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:11 pm
Nicola Sturgeon on Westmonster and how the whole thing is undemocratic, unrepresentative and adversarial. I absolutely bloody agree with her 100%. Stop Brexit now...
Would that be the same Nicola Sturgeon who is the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party which, at present, forms the minority government of Scotland? Would that be the same Nicola Sturgeon who constantly moans about independence, despite the fact that when the Scottish (and Islands) people were asked in a referendum about independence, the NO side won, 55.3% voting against independence and 44.7% voting in favour, and that after a vote involving the highest turnout since universal suffrage began?
Well, she certainly knows a lot about democracy, doesn't she?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Darren Wilshak » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:42 pm

That vote was cast before Brexit, things are VERY different now I'm afraid. I thought you knew this? The mistake is ignoring as you have as well as the Government has itself, the equal concerns and wishes of those who lost your yeserenderum Poodle in a UNION and very narrowly and what a great display of democracy that is that the Tory yeserendum steamroller should continue to push this buireach of a political and economic idea forward! Scotland has strong Historical connections to Europe. It has benefited from European money coming into deprived areas and it wants to remain. It OVERWHELMING rejected your Brexit idea matey. I was in Edinburgh on the day and coming back down South could sense something about little England.

Besides which it is surely self-evident that when the original dichotomous question was put, the UK was sold the thing on lies and on deals. Not on 'no deals.' How are our historic markets in South Korea looking today by the way?

I still subscribe to the idea that a Nation is entitled to its own self determination and that Scotland is not England's colony which UK gov have continued to pretend is the case. I do like Sturgeon and I like the fact that Holyrood answers to the people, not to the "crown," even if the building is a very weird design.
"We are still waiting for anyone to rebut the main theme of the article that the decode in question and the numbers it quoted perfectly match those in the Korherr report.

Until such a rebuttal comes to light and goes through peer review the article stands the test of time. And after 10 years since the article was published both Peter (Witte) and I have moved on to other research projects. "

AHF

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:17 pm

All well and good, Darren - but you seem to have missed the salient point that no one outside Scotland and the Islands took any part in that vote. It was they who rejected the idea of independence and I see no reason whatsoever to claim that they would think differently simply because Nicky the Fish has had her nose put out of joint (by the EU, who informed her some time ago that she couldn't simply leave the UK and remain in the EU, but would have to independently meet all entry requirements before an independent Scotland's entry would even be considered).
And, of course, there'd have to be a hard border as the EU appear to be fond of that kind of thing. Best of luck with that one.