Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by TJrandom » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:49 am

I say... let Parliament vote to not Brexit and to essentially ignore the referendum – thus BAU, stay in the EU and see what happens. Those who vote this way can legitimately say that they had no choice – a no-deal Brexit and the May negotiated Brexit both being untenable. Of course many would likely be turned out at the next election, but many not, and any future Brexit referendum I presume would fail anyway.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:00 am

TJrandom wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:49 am
I say... let Parliament vote to not Brexit and to essentially ignore the referendum – thus BAU, stay in the EU and see what happens. Those who vote this way can legitimately say that they had no choice – a no-deal Brexit and the May negotiated Brexit both being untenable. Of course many would likely be turned out at the next election, but many not, and any future Brexit referendum I presume would fail anyway.
If only things were so easy, TJ. The biggest assumption there is that a no-deal Brexit is untenable. As things stand, it's actually the most likely outcome.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:51 am

Poodle wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:15 pm
I, of course, had no hand in such scurrilous rumours, and wouldn't dream of even considering the lady capable of such subterfuge.
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:07 am

TJrandom wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:49 am
I say... let Parliament vote to not Brexit and to essentially ignore the referendum – thus BAU, stay in the EU and see what happens. Those who vote this way can legitimately say that they had no choice – a no-deal Brexit and the May negotiated Brexit both being untenable. Of course many would likely be turned out at the next election, but many not, and any future Brexit referendum I presume would fail anyway.
That would be ideal, I imagine, in terms of the long-term interest of all citizens of the UK.

Unfortunately, the economic class divide between South and North in the UK seems to be about what it is between big-city and small-town US. That's how abominations like Trump and Brexit arise. As I'm devoid of any acute insight into economics and politics, you may infer that I've been reading something that led me to that remark. You would be right. The book is "Can Democracy Survive Global Capitalism?" by a guy named Kuttner, and it points out what was right under my nose the whole time: Democrats abandoned their populist base some decades ago, all with good and decent motives (to end the war in Viet Nam, to protect the environment, to bring about civil rights for women and people of color and the LBGT community....). People who lived around the big cities were still able to find work at a decent wage, but a lot of (former!) factory workers and hourly-wage people were hurting---a lot. Those people voted for Trump in 2016, because the Democrats rejected Bernie Sanders in favor of a more-of-the-same, out-of-touch elitist, who (they thought) called them "deplorable." No doubt, racism, sexism, and religiously-engendered ignorance and arrogance are part of the make-up of the typical Trump voter. But they wouldn't lead to the vicious action that Trump is engaging and they are cheering on, IF they only had secure jobs.

Kuttner says the same thing has happened in the UK: The elites around London and a few other big cities have been doing just fine, and they voted heavily against Brexit. But people up north didn't fare so well, and, as in the US, blamed immigrants for ruining their lives---not just taking their jobs, but making them have to live among populations that seemed alien to them.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:00 pm

Just about right, UoG. Except (in very broad terms, obviously) it's the south-east versus everywhere else. Devon and Cornwall (you can't get further south than Cornwall) have been much worse off under the EU). Scotland, on the other hand, has been considerably better off overall (but that's all down to EU subsidy rather than basic efficiency) but would be considerably worse off if they were independent of the UK, regardless of what the Nationalists say. Our East Coast fisheries have virtually disappeared. The Home Counties (that's London++) have been creaming it in under the EU. Generally speaking, the push for supranational unity has had the opposite effect here. EU membership has been a good thing for large-scale industry, but small stuff is under constant pressure.
The other thing to take into consideration (honestly!) is the Rule Britannia effect. Our less-well intellectually gifted denizens can't let go of being "ruled by bloody Germans". I mean, who won WW2 after all? Yes - it's really sometimes that bad. You have no idea how petty Brits can be when they perceive themselves as being bullied.
Yes, there's also the immigrant thing amongst our dickhead fraternity - but it doesn't apply to Europeans (except the Germans) but to people of the 'wrong' skin colour. Those people have been coming here since long before the EU was even a twinkle in anyone's eye, so that's a red herring. Red herring's probably a bad phrase to use given what I've just said, but most of our 'send 'em back' idiots can't read too well.

Stop Press .... There is a rumour (they've all had elements of truth so far) that Mrs May is considering cancelling the Parliamentary vote tomorrow and going back to Brussels to plead for more concessions. If that's true the vote of no confidence will come out of storage and we'll be back in la la land.

Stop Press 2 .... Apparently, she's done it - she's cancelled the vote and is at present closeted with her cabinet colleagues. Option 1 - she's resigning. Option 2 - I can't think of any.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:50 pm

The Farce is with you ...
Yes - she has cancelled the vote. No - it's not going to matter a damn because the EU negotiators have immediately issued a statement that there are no more discussions to be had and no more concessions to be made. She is up the creek without a paddle.
To make matters worse, at this very moment there is a full French fishing fleet well within UK waters (ie illegally) off the south coast. It's quite stormy there at the moment and the British fishing fleet is tucked up in harbour. One of the French trawlers broke down and put out a distress call . They're now being towed to safety by a British lifeboat. Didn't these Frenchies learn their lesson at Trafalgar? Anyway - this is how childish the entire situation is becoming (although I hope that the boat and all its tackle is confiscated and the captain put into court).

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:55 pm

Poodle wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:15 pm
Effectively she was the last man standing (apart from a couple of also-rans) and became PM by default. At that same point, she put herself firmly in the Leave camp.
That's the thing I can't understand other than that the leavers' generals were knowingly BS the whole time for their own credentials at brinkmansship. Why didnt Boris or Farage or some other guy take that mantle? Why did they slink away at once like that? It is curious that noone who was strongly in favour of brexit managed to become PM in the wake.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:08 pm

It's a bit foggy in my memory now, Dan - but I think that the plan was for Boris to become Mr. Big, supported by Michael Gove (who had been campaigning with him). Gove ran away at the crucial moment, leaving Boris totally isolated. Gove then declared that he wasn't going to run himself (probably after a few telephone calls introduced him to reality) leaving May and, if I remember, Andrea Leadsom, as candidates. Leadsom had two minutes experience as opposed to May, who was already Foreign Minister - she was a shoo-in.
But yes - it's a puzzle. The country which voted Leave would not support the main Leave candidate. However, I suspect Boris was his own downfall. He's a very astute and intelligent man but he always insisted upon playing the buffoon. It may be that it was known that Boris would simply have us up and leave if he became PM. Too much too soon sort of thing. But - who knows?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:17 pm

More confusion. It's now being questioned whether or not May has the prerogative to stop the vote - only Parliament can do that. If that's the case, the vote will go ahead and May will lose. On an issue like this, the normal response would be the resignation of the Prime Minister.
Oh - what a {!#%@} mess! I'm thinking of emigrating to Stavanger (good memories of that place).

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:40 pm

In immensely more important and meaningful news, Voyager 2 has officially left the solar system. I wish the same could be said of Theresa May.

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Re: Brexit

Post by OlegTheBatty » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:05 pm

If all her roads lead to political suicide then going for the result she wants most would be prudent.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:42 pm

Poodle wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:50 pm
The Farce is with you ...
Yes - she has cancelled the vote. No - it's not going to matter a damn because the EU negotiators have immediately issued a statement that there are no more discussions to be had and no more concessions to be made. She is up the creek without a paddle.
To make matters worse, at this very moment there is a full French fishing fleet well within UK waters (ie illegally) off the south coast. It's quite stormy there at the moment and the British fishing fleet is tucked up in harbour. One of the French trawlers broke down and put out a distress call . They're now being towed to safety by a British lifeboat. Didn't these Frenchies learn their lesson at Trafalgar? Anyway - this is how childish the entire situation is becoming (although I hope that the boat and all its tackle is confiscated and the captain put into court).
Wow! Thanks for those details. The postponement even led tonight's US news broadcast. That shows you how big a deal it is. Almost nothing draws the attention of Americans outside their own shores. But I didn't know that the EU had already put the kibosh on further talks. I know they said that earlier, but statements in politics and diplomacy have a way of becoming "inoperative," as we used to say during the Watergate investigation.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:11 am

You're welcome.
The visit is not quite what it seemed. She's going to talk with the Dutch PM and then Angela Merkel about - errrrr - well, anything she can think of, and then Donald Tusk, head of the European Council. None of those can override or alter the terms of the Brexit agreement - which, no matter how many people run around Europe like headless chickens is still hanging in the air waiting for the inevitable rejection by Parliament. Donald Tusk may be able to give her some ideas about how to make the Irish backstop more palatable and thus pull the DUP back on board, but even that won't now give her the numbers she needs.
If she keeps this up any longer, I can see a couple more letters of no confidence being presented - that's all that's needed to reach the magic number and force a leadership battle (which she would very obviously lose) or her resignation (which would, at least, leave her a shred or two of respect).

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:21 pm

Poodle wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:11 am
If she keeps this up any longer, I can see a couple more letters of no confidence being presented - that's all that's needed to reach the magic number and force a leadership battle (which she would very obviously lose) or her resignation (which would, at least, leave her a shred or two of respect).
If anyone is keeping score, that would make TWO PMs in a row who resigned due to unpopular policies. This is beginning to be a trend.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:29 pm

A rumour is being rumoured ...
It is said that Sir Graham Brady, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (and so the man to whom all those accumulating letters of no confidence are sent) has asked to see Mrs May tomorrow (Wednesday). If the rumour is true, then the required trigger level has been reached and there must now be a leadership contest within the Conservative Party. She can stand in that contest - but she's hardly likely to. Then, of course, we'll have a new Prime Minister who will reflect the accumulated will of the Conservative Party. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen ...

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:30 pm

Poodle wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:29 pm
A rumour is being rumoured ...
It is said that Sir Graham Brady, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee (and so the man to whom all those accumulating letters of no confidence are sent) has asked to see Mrs May tomorrow (Wednesday). If the rumour is true, then the required trigger level has been reached and there must now be a leadership contest within the Conservative Party. She can stand in that contest - but she's hardly likely to. Then, of course, we'll have a new Prime Minister who will reflect the accumulated will of the Conservative Party. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen ...
Thanks for that heads-up, Poodle. Nothing of this has appeared on American news media, as far as I know.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:07 pm

Well, look what Theresa May has come up with: Cor!!!

“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:09 pm

Well, it may not be true, UoG. One newspaper editor has flatly denied it, although he certainly hasn't spoken to Sir Graham. Even if it wasn't true then, it may well be true now. Mrs May returns to Parliament tomorrow and will have to report that her visit to Brussels was a complete failure. About an hour or two after that, we are very likely to know for sure.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:13 pm

Poodle wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:09 pm
Well, it may not be true, UoG. One newspaper editor has flatly denied it, although he certainly hasn't spoken to Sir Graham. Even if it wasn't true then, it may well be true now. Mrs May returns to Parliament tomorrow and will have to report that her visit to Brussels was a complete failure. About an hour or two after that, we are very likely to know for sure.
There are days in my life I wish I could have skipped the way TM the PM skipped this one. Why didn't I think of going to Brussels when I needlessly got myself involved in a dispute between two colleagues, both of whom were once my friends?
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:45 pm

From a 2-minute-old BBC report ...
"Tory Brexiteers are increasingly confident they have enough support to trigger a no-confidence vote in Theresa May as party leader. If 48 Conservative MPs submit letters to say they no longer support her, a leadership challenge will be launched. There is no confirmation but sources, including a cabinet minister, have said they believe 48 letters have been sent. The BBC has also been told the senior backbencher who receives the letters has asked to see the PM on Wednesday."

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:13 am

All confirmed. Theresa May will face a no-confidence vote amongst all Conservative MPs later today. If she loses (and that's about as probable as the sun rising in the morning) there'll be a leadership contest. We have no idea who may run, but watch out for Dominic Raab, Angela Leadsom and, just maybe, the Boris. She could save herself a lot of heartache and embarrassment by resigning right away. We'll see.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:38 am

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:07 pm
Well, look what Theresa May has come up with: Cor!!!

OMG, this is evil... and so on point.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:48 am

Ah - I made a mistake. Theresa May could NOT stand in the possibly upcoming leadership election.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Tom Palven » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:53 am

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:05 pm
If all her roads lead to political suicide then going for the result she wants most would be prudent.

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” -Woody Allen
If one can be taught to believe absurdities, one can commit atrocities. --Voltaire

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Re: Brexit

Post by TJrandom » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:56 am

He said that when he took up with his daughter?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:17 am

Well, she's definitely not resigning, and Angela Leadsom will NOT run against her. There's a queue of MPs who would, though. They don't have too much time to make up their minds - the no-confidence vote happens this evening. The bookies have Boris Johnson a 2/5 favourite - I find that hard to believe.

EDIT: A bit of a turn up for the books - May is now forecast to WIN the no-confidence vote. There is no logic in British politics. I need a drink.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:49 am

Tom Palven wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:53 am
OlegTheBatty wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:05 pm
If all her roads lead to political suicide then going for the result she wants most would be prudent.

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” -Woody Allen
:lol: :lol: :lol:

The incomparable Woody! We could start a whole thread here on our favorite quotes. Mine is in the mouth of his fictional character Needleman: "I prefer cremation to burial in the ground, and both to a week-end with Mrs. Needleman."
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:16 pm

The vote will be complete at 9 pm - in about four hours as the crow flies. 180 of 318 Conservative MPs were believed this morning to be in support of May - which is plenty for a win IF they all stay onside, but only a few need to change their minds to chuck her out. I have no idea what is going to happen.
None of this, of course, will affect the main action - leaving the EU. The argument between the current offer and a no-deal Brexit will continue tomorrow come Hell or high water.
Oh - we still have the option to forget it all and stay in the EU. Perhaps May will go for that if she's still PM by tonight - more ridiculous things have happened in the last couple of days.

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:57 pm

Poodle wrote: Then, of course, we'll have a new Prime Minister who will reflect the accumulated will of the Conservative Party. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen ...
You saying there's a multiple personalities schizophrenic waiting to take over? Or possibly a triumvirate coming in?

Conservative party civil war is the reason for this mess after all.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:40 pm

It would seem so, Dan. It's been days of 'say one thing, do another'. No one seems to be holding to the line they followed yesterday, Well - we'll know in an hour or so.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:16 pm

She won by 200 votes to 117. I'm surprised (gobsmacked, in fact) she performed so well. So she remains as PM, but the size of the no vote will mean she remains under pressure. The general consensus of journalists is that she has been weakened and the pressure upon her will not lift - it's a 'carry on for now' message rather than 'three cheers for Theresa'.
I don't know where we go from here - the pressure is still on her proposal for leaving the EU and even some of the MPs who gave her their confidence are still saying they'll do their best to vote it down. Tonight's vote was for her to stay as PM - not for the UK to stay in the EU on her terms.
Normal for Parliament, then, and back to the battle tomorrow.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:25 pm

Ah, my! If I had been an MP, I don't know how I'd have gone. The referendum is still out there, and the effort to implement it has now gone on for more than two years. What could anybody else do better than Theresa May has done? She's had what seems to me to be an impossible job.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:38 pm

And, I suspect, she still has one. Those 117 votes can now be added to those of the DUP, the Labour party (not unanimous in their own position) and anyone else hanging around Parliament. Altogether, that lot can still vote down her plan when it comes to the crunch, leaving us in either a no-deal exit or just dropping the whole thing and staying where we are. We may just have seen the size of the anti-Boris vote rather than the pro-May vote. I still think her proposal is not going to be acceptable to the DUP, and they still hold the balance of power.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gord » Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:49 am

Poodle wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:16 pm
She won by 200 votes to 117. I'm surprised (gobsmacked, in fact) she performed so well. So she remains as PM, but the size of the no vote will mean she remains under pressure....
Everyone else is afraid there's a chance, no matter how slim, that they might get her job if she's voted out.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:11 am

As has become clear overnight, you're absolutely right, Gord. She got the victory by promising to step down upon completion of Brexit negotiations. So everyone wins. She gets her last go at immortality, the party has got rid of its lame duck, and no one has to become lame duck Part 2. Of course, had she said all that earlier, the expense of the charade could have been avoided.
So - back to square one. We are offered an exit strategy few people really want, the no-dealers can continue unimpeded, the DUP have more time to defend their right to be part of the UK, and the EU negotiators can continue saying "Non!". There's much more fun to be had yet.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:29 am

And none of this has yet appeared on my morning news feed. Is the US a narcissistic, self-obsessed nation of morons? (Don't answer that!)
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gord » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:09 pm

I get all my Euro-news by watching UK comedy shows on youtube.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:14 pm

It's by far the most reliable source. Have I Got News For You is right on the button usually.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:18 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:29 am
And none of this has yet appeared on my morning news feed. Is the US a narcissistic, self-obsessed nation of morons? (Don't answer that!)
Not at all, UoG - but you have problems all your own at the moment. It seems to be the Age of Screw-Ups. Even so, I have a feed (24 hours late) into the Rachel Maddow show to keep me up to date with Trumpery - otherwise I'd be a week behind the times.
Last edited by Poodle on Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gord » Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:23 pm

Poodle wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:14 pm
It's by far the most reliable source. Have I Got News For You is right on the button usually.
Have you tried the Mash Report?
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE
Is Trump in jail yet?