Brexit

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Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:19 am

The {!#%@} is about one centimetre from the fan. Today should be an eye opener. We may be in the market for a new Prime Minister, depending upon the strength of principle of our beloved leaders.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gord » Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:36 pm

Oh, is that little ol' thing still happening?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:46 pm

Only on Wednesdays.
Actually, she may be garnering support. It now all depends upon how many of our MPs understand the word 'principles', It promises to be close.

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:57 pm

Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Only on Wednesdays.
Actually, she may be garnering support. It now all depends upon how many of our MPs understand the word 'principles', It promises to be close.
From what I have gathered, the principle has been "having the cake and eating it too" without any regard for realities. Interesting to see whether some form of reality can prevail against that "principle".

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:38 pm

Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:19 am
The {!#%@} is about one centimetre from the fan. Today should be an eye opener. We may be in the market for a new Prime Minister, depending upon the strength of principle of our beloved leaders.
Thanks for the heads-up. I'll watch the news.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:30 pm

OutOfBreath wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:57 pm
Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Only on Wednesdays.
Actually, she may be garnering support. It now all depends upon how many of our MPs understand the word 'principles', It promises to be close.
From what I have gathered, the principle has been "having the cake and eating it too" without any regard for realities. Interesting to see whether some form of reality can prevail against that "principle".

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Dan
'Some form of reality' would be the realisation that words such as 'referendum' and 'binding' actually mean something. I voted to stay in and lost - now I'm more interested in the straightforwardness and honesty of our politicians.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:33 pm

What's the point of anything if you aren't allowed to change your mind once you understand the situation better?

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:41 pm

I'll take that point, EM, when anyone shows me the method used to measure that better understanding. Even so, of course anyone can change their minds - having watched the performance of the leading EU characters, I've certainly changed mine and would now vote to leave the EU. The main point is that a binding referendum, once overturned by another binding referendum, demands an infinitely regressing series of binding referenda, and still no one would be any the wiser.
Not that wisdom is a very big point with either the EU or the UK government at the moment.

Here's an example of the rank stupidity of involved politicians. Both Leo Varadkar and Theresa May have said that they have no intention of establishing a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. That hasn't stopped some dickhead in the UK Parliament bringing up the situation again about five minutes ago. The law really is sometimes "a ass".
Last edited by Poodle on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:47 pm

The Brexit referendum was incredibly close. A second one could be required to have a clear majority before it becomes binding. That way, it is less likely to be overturned anytime soon.
But hey, the EU might deteriorate so quickly that a Remain UK might want to quit in 10 years after all.

What got me upset about Brexit is that all the UK-expats in Europe didn't get to vote: they are the most affected, yet they were completely disenfranchised.
If they were to be asked, "Remain" would be a foregone conclusion.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:53 pm

A quick Google gave me ..."British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens who live in the UK, along with Britons who have lived abroad for less than 15 years, were eligible to vote"
Had that not been the case, EM, I would have joined you on the soapbox. Although my sister lives in France - I would have stopped her from voting if I could.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:17 pm

I know a number of UK families who moved abroad, and have kids with intention to return - none of them got to vote after coming of age, even though they might form one of the most important demographics for the economic future of the Isles.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:22 pm

I'd be interested to know why they didn't get to vote. Have they pursued this? The qualification was absolutely clear, as far as I can see.
https://fullfact.org/europe/who-can-vote-eu-referendum/

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:32 pm

I can ask them again, but they were of the opinion that, since they had never registered to live in the UK, they couldn't vote.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Gord » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:33 pm

So, who's winning the Brexit so far?
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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:49 pm

Oh dear - I think Theresa may be in trouble ...

(See what I did there?).

If she is, that could only mean the deal she thought she had is dead in the water. She either has to surrender and go hard-line leave or resign. Then who do we get? Boris may make it yet!!!!
EDIT: It's being reported that the number of letters of no-confidence being submitted is 'tantalisingly' close to the 48 needed to trigger a leadership contest.

EDIT2: Well - she's got Cabinet backing. That must have been so close - she may have a Teflon coating. Now she has to convince the Parliamentary party and then Parliament itself. Meanwhile, M. Barnier appears to be preparing to make a statement. He shouldn't - every time he's opened his mouth lately he's put his foot in it.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:36 am

It's now Thursday and it's already falling apart. One Cabinet Minister has resigned plus a couple of less senior ones (to date at 9.26 am), and Theresa May is reported as scrabbling around for support. She got majority Cabinet support yesterday but now has to get support from her own party and from Parliament as a whole - including the Northern Irish members who are not best pleased with what she's done (and the Conservative majority in Parliament depends absolutely upon those same Northern Irish politicians. Arlene Foster is an incredibly powerful lady for the next few hours).
The situation right now is that Theresa May MUST get unassailable support today or resign. The question is whether she'll sink so low that she has to turn to Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party to get her wishlist through Commons (the House of Lords can delay stuff but that's all. In effect, they're a sheet anchor - but they can simply be put to one side if they become too awkward).
This is better than Dallas and Dynasty rolled together.

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:25 am

Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:30 pm
OutOfBreath wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:57 pm
Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Only on Wednesdays.
Actually, she may be garnering support. It now all depends upon how many of our MPs understand the word 'principles', It promises to be close.
From what I have gathered, the principle has been "having the cake and eating it too" without any regard for realities. Interesting to see whether some form of reality can prevail against that "principle".

Peace
Dan
'Some form of reality' would be the realisation that words such as 'referendum' and 'binding' actually mean something. I voted to stay in and lost - now I'm more interested in the straightforwardness and honesty of our politicians.
I would agree if not for the very close nature of the vote, totally unrealistic pie in the sky arguments for leaving (promising basically that it would cost nothing, saving money, not hampering trade etc), mutually incompatibility of the various leavers' plans further (free trade vs shut the borders).

It was always gonna be a mess since the referendum was poorly prepared and executed with no clear will as to what to do after. When norway turned down eu twice, we had both times a finished deal to vote on. If the brexit referendum were to be "real" consequences should be known beforehand. Noone in the uk seriously thought that brexit would win, least of all it's main rabble rousers who quickly slinked away after. They just wanted the grandstand of it all.

Given all the dishonesty and no planning of it all, I see no problem with calling a new referendum on the result. Then it would be clear what will happen and how it will work and what tradeoffs is made. And what wont happen. "Is this what you wanted?" seems a fair way to legitimize a process that has been a shambles from the start.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:34 am

I can see what you're saying. Dan, and I actually agree with what you've said. However, there still remains the problem of ANY referendum being allowed to override the result of an earlier referendum on precisely the same subject when, if fact, nothing had changed. It devalues the concept of a referendum - in fact it makes any referendum pointless and invalid.

EDIT: Did I mention Esther McVey has also resigned now? That's another big gun (and NOT a remainer) gone.

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:02 am

Indeed. I question the whole validity of any referendum after the brexit hoopla. But whats new is the knowledge of actual consequences. And given the very fractured politics leading up to this, a new legitimizing vote would make the people's will clearer. I see no reason why referendums cant be called again on important issues. If the people really wants brexit (as it now stands) they can say so again.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:20 am

The problem still remains. At the moment, the referendum score is Leavers 1 Remainers 0. If we had a second referendum, that score will change to either 1-1 or 2-0. If it's 1-1, it's a clear as the nose on anyone's face what happens next - a play-off which will automatically invalidate one of the two earlier referenda. So how binding is a referendum under those conditions? Not in the least in that last case. Depending upon the result of a process which has already been invalidated by its own existence is not safe political ground and is logically unsound anyway.
Would such a thing apply to our more normal type of referendum - that of elections? Should we demand a rerun if our favourite party does not win power?
No - it all smacks of desperation, Dan, and not all members of the UK electorate are as sensible as are you.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Io » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:53 am

Poodle wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:41 pm
Even so, of course anyone can change their minds - having watched the performance of the leading EU characters, I've certainly changed mine and would now vote to leave the EU.
This. This is exactly how I feel. I didn't vote in the end because I just couldn't decide one way or the other - while I can see the immense benefits of a close trading relationship with the EU the leaders have become undemocratic bullies with larger designs on power. And drink. The childish overweening self-righteousness they've exuded since the Brexit referendum has been quite the eye-opener.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Io » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 pm

I'd add that, given the infantile attitudes of the EU top cocks the thought that the EU would suddenly welcome the UK back with open arms and a "we'll give you whatever you need oh long lost brother" and wouldn't be even more childish and vindictive if a second referendum went in favour of remaining, is frankly laughable.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:40 pm

Well, the boot's going in now. Two (possibly three) votes of no confidence have been submitted. I think May's dead in the water ... but this IS Parliament and anything could happen.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:15 pm

Io wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 pm
I'd add that, given the infantile attitudes of the EU top cocks the thought that the EU would suddenly welcome the UK back with open arms and a "we'll give you whatever you need oh long lost brother" and wouldn't be even more childish and vindictive if a second referendum went in favour of remaining, is frankly laughable.
The EU could learn from this fiasco. The UK isn't the only unhappy member in the union.
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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:25 pm

Io wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 pm
I'd add that, given the infantile attitudes of the EU top cocks the thought that the EU would suddenly welcome the UK back with open arms and a "we'll give you whatever you need oh long lost brother" and wouldn't be even more childish and vindictive if a second referendum went in favour of remaining, is frankly laughable.
The EU is childish?
Sounds like someone doing a big sulk would say.

Why would the rest of the EU, interested in maintaining the Union, make it particularly easy for a member to leave with all the benefits intact but without the drawbacks? The UK has far more to lose than the EU, so naturally it is in a weaker negotiation position - that isn't the fault of the EU. Maybe "Leave" should have negotiated before the Referendum, like any sane person would have done?
The UK has always freeloaded on the EU way more than any other founding member, always demanding special exemptions.
And no, it cannot expect the same level of exceptionalism if it wants to get back in in a decade.

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Re: Brexit

Post by landrew » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:35 pm

Like any mutual endeavor, some of the partners will do more of the heavy lifting than others. Purists will say "never mind, who's counting?" But others will want out.
If they manage to work things out, it will be a better union. If they don't, it will be worse.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Io » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:57 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:25 pm
Sounds like someone doing a big sulk would say.
Steady.

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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:57 pm

The EU was never set up to allow for a dropout - much like many marriages without nuptials.
This was a deliberate oversight, because at the time, no one wanted to even think about less trans-national cooperation, as it was seen as a throwback to pre-WW2 conditions.
The UK was fully aware of this, and should have asked for a tally before starting a referendum.
Brits have been {!#%@} over by their own government, and they are complaining that the EU isn't picking up the slack.
Whether or not the UK remains, the EU will have to set up better guidelines for amicable separation, just to give the citizens of its members a sense of what to expect when they consider leaving.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:13 pm

Unfortunately for that argument, EM, the EU was not the organisation the UK joined in 1973 - that was the EEC. It has changed markedly since then. And to claim that the EU could never set up to allow for a dropout isn't true - Greenland withdrew in 1985. But to the point - the EU are not really in the business of separation and will never set up such guidelines. Watch Greece, Italy and the Visegrad countries if they caught even a sniff of such a thing. There'd be a queue to leave.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Poodle wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:40 pm
Well, the boot's going in now. Two (possibly three) votes of no confidence have been submitted. I think May's dead in the water ... but this IS Parliament and anything could happen.
I've been listening to the BBC World Service this morning, and it does appear Ms. May has had more defections. You say some no-confidence proposals have been put forward? Things are moving fast, then. At 13:30 GMT, the BBC was saying all depends on what the EU heads of state decide a week from Sunday, and whether the draft now on the table will get their approval. It appears to have a lot of opposition still within Parliament, although from my perspective 5000 km west of Nice, France, it seems to me the UK is being offered a very good deal, especially as the EU will not insist on a hard border between the two parts of Ireland. But even if the EU brass approve, it looks like an uphill struggle for Ms. May in Parliament, assuming she manages to hang onto power that long. Is there a challenge to her leadership within the Conservative Party, and also a challenge to her government in Parliament? When's the last time a government fell by a vote of no confidence? I can't remember it ever happening, although it happened to the hapless Joe Clark in Canada a few decades ago.
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Re: Brexit

Post by ElectricMonk » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:12 pm

Poodle wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:13 pm
Unfortunately for that argument, EM, the EU was not the organisation the UK joined in 1973 - that was the EEC. It has changed markedly since then. And to claim that the EU could never set up to allow for a dropout isn't true - Greenland withdrew in 1985. But to the point - the EU are not really in the business of separation and will never set up such guidelines. Watch Greece, Italy and the Visegrad countries if they caught even a sniff of such a thing. There'd be a queue to leave.
The UK was a voting member the entire time - if the EU is messed up, then the UK is just as much at fault as all the other states.
And yes, countries might want to leave, because the Eu has achieved so much that it now seems that countries don't need it anymore to peacefully cooexist and cooperate. In this sense the EU might become a victim of its own success.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:13 pm

... and it's all gone quiet. May gave a creditable press conference sticking to her guns. We still don't know the number of 'no-confidence' letters, but there are certainly some (and very probably more than enough IF they are all executed. Penny Mordaunt (secretary of State) turned up at number 10 and then left number 10. Michael Gove (now you see him, now you don't) left home to go somewhere but then returned having, apparently, gone nowhere.
UoG - the last vote of no confidence was 1979 when Jim Callaghan was defeated by (whisper it ... Margaret Thatcher).
EM - of course the UK has been no angel in all of this. But we are in the position we are in and there is a legal obligation to execute the demands of the referendum. It's no longer a question of if. It's when, how and by whom.
Tomorrow is another day.

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Re: Brexit

Post by TJrandom » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:31 pm

A new referendum might legitimately ask for support of the BREXIT plan and avoid the ‘remain or BREXIT’ question… BREXIT with the current plan vs no BREXIT plan (‘Hard BREXIT’)

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:22 am

That may well become an important point today, TJ, as it's becoming apparent that at least a decent handful of EU states are objecting to the whole process on the grounds that no one has thought to ask them about it directly. The current situation, they say, has been brought about by the intransigence of unelected civil servants (aka the EU commission). That, of course, has been one of the rallying cries of the Brexit movement for some time.
Meanwhile, back on the ranch, it seems that a three-day cooling-off period is allowed for possible retractions of no-confidence letters - so if the required number of those letters has actually been posted then we may not find out about the true size of the threat to Theresa May's position until tomorrow or Monday.
Donald Tusk has issued a statement that the Brexit deal on offer is a Canada plus plus plus thing, showing that he didn't read the terms of the Canada deal and hasn't read the current Brexit document either.
It's a mess. I await the coming of the Archangel Gabriel.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:25 am

Everyone is either pausing for breath or plotting in the background - it's all gone remarkably quiet. Amazingly, the quietest of the lot is Boris Johnson (no - don't laugh). He is conspicuous by his absence so far. You read it here first!

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Re: Brexit

Post by OutOfBreath » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:42 am

Poodle wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:22 am
That may well become an important point today, TJ, as it's becoming apparent that at least a decent handful of EU states are objecting to the whole process on the grounds that no one has thought to ask them about it directly. The current situation, they say, has been brought about by the intransigence of unelected civil servants (aka the EU commission). That, of course, has been one of the rallying cries of the Brexit movement for some time.
That's just the thing isn't it? The national democracies of the EU is the snag since the EU is consensus-based and have little independent democratic (or otherwise) authority. Which really underscores how silly the brexit-arguments of a "quick deal, you wont notice it" were. Any one nation can delay this process if it is so inclined. So one thing is to reach a deal with the EU administration, it then has to go through all the EU countries' parliaments on the one hand, and the british one on the other. But I must say the british government made this mess themselves, regardless of legitimate grievances, by holding a poorly thought through referendum and triggering brexit before they even knew what they themselves wanted. Complaining about slow-moving EU-cogs is rather disingenous and VERY predictable given all institutional history after all.

And what if the british government commits harakiri once again, and goes back to square one? I say the "do-over" option is increasingly the only sensible solution available. At least to put the actual brexit on hold until the british government knows what it's own position is, and a more comprehensive deal palatable to the parliaments of the EU countries is reached. Now it seems to be just bullheaded "brexit means brexit and damn the consequences or the muddiness of the situation".

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:41 pm

I think you may have hit several nails squarely on the head there, Dan. Setting up referenda when so few people (we're now led to believe) know what a referendum is or what the subject really is about does appear stupid. That'll be why so many people are now calling for another one.
In the meantime ...
News is in that "Bookmaker William Hill has suspended betting on the year that Prime Minister Theresa May will leave office". That headline plus a statement that the 48 no-confidence letters have definitely been received tells us a story. In the face of that, Donald Tusk has said that the Brexit summit will be held on November 25th "unless something extraordinary happens". WTF?
EDIT: A current count of MPs indicates that it is numerically impossible for Theresa May to get her deal through Parliament anyway. Back to Square 1 - except we've been told that Square 1 is no longer available. The only remaining position, then, is a no-deal Brexit. This is what happens when we allow politicians too much leeway and then put civil servants in charge anyway.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:36 am

It gets worse! Donald Trump has offered to start negotiating a 'special' trade deal with the UK immediately if the UK meet his own terms (which the UK cannot do before they've left the EU. No change there, then.
The no-confidence letters are still a growing threat, but not as big a threat as the news that five further Cabinet members have (apparently) publicly declared that they, too, will resign unless substantial changes are made to May's exit proposals (not that the proposals have a snowball in hell's chance of getting through Parliament in the first place) which at least demonstrates the depth of opposition. Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for the EU Commission, has meanwhile unilaterally stated categorically but very undemocratically that no further changes will be allowed (in case anyone still doesn't know, this man is an unelected civil servant) to a discussion document which has not yet been ratified by the UK Parliament, let alone presented to the EU negotiators. The only possible response to that is the dreaded no-deal Brexit which, to be frank, would suit the more ardent Brexiteers and enrage the other EU members. It would also entail the UK reclaiming total control of their pre-EU fishing ground limits which would really piss off the Spanish and the French (amongst others) fishermen. How would that be for an own goal?
And it isn't even 8am yet.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Poodle » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:41 am

It;s Sunday, otherwise known as DoNothingDay. There may be 'secret' talks within the Conservative Party as to what the post-revolution cabinet may look like (and yes - it would include a re-invented Boris). It's sit back and read the Sunday newspapers day in which all the leading players tell us why they're completely correct in their analyses and how they would change the proposed deal - this in the face of an intransigent EU negotiation stance of 'it's this or nothing'.
Self-declared no-confidence votes are creeping upwards. The magic number of 48 has still not been declared, though. The Labour Party are declaring themselves the next government - no change there, then..
So yes - it's a normal Sunday and nothing of any importance will happen. Maybe. There is a tiny suggestion that Jacob Rees-Mogg (if the anti-May revolution happens) may become Chancellor of the Exchequer. That'll be ... ermmmm ... interesting.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:47 am

Poodle wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:36 am
It gets worse! Donald Trump has offered to start negotiating a 'special' trade deal with the UK immediately if the UK meet his own terms (which the UK cannot do before they've left the EU. No change there, then.
WHO in the Trump Administration is behind this interference in negotiations that are none of America's goddamned business? I'd have said Trump himself if I didn't know he is fully occupied with whining and boasting, the only two skills he has ever acquired. I suppose this was a favor to Theresa May, who has paid dearly for her attempts to curry favor with Trump.

Trump has repeatedly shown himself incompetent in international affairs, starting with his uncalled-for comments the day after the Brexit vote, when he was still a candidate for office. Anyone but a blithering idiot would have said that this was an issue for the British people to decide among themselves and that Americans wish them well, whatever they decide. But he jumped in and landed with hob-nailed boots on the side of Brexit.
“It is certainly sad and regrettable that so many innocent people died…Stalin was absolutely adamant on making doubly sure: spare no one…I don’t deny that I supported that view. I was simply not able to study every individual case…It was hard to draw a precise line where to stop.”

Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skryabin (“Molotov”)