SETI: When is enough enough?

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Austin Harper » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:48 pm

It's tons of data but again, it's only on tiny fraction of the available wavelengths in a tiny fraction of the sky.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:08 pm

Austin Harper wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:48 pm
It's tons of data but again, it's only on tiny fraction of the available wavelengths in a tiny fraction of the sky.
I think a massive experiment of this size and scope has by now become a story in itself.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:13 am

"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:04 pm

There's something to be said about the destructive effects of contact between separate populations of organisms. When North and South America joined, mass extinctions followed. A similar thing happened when Eurasia connected to North America. On a cultural level, Native Americans didn't fare very well as a result of European colonization either. I'm not sure how well it would go for us if we made contact with an extraterrestrial civilization.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 pm

Fortunately, landrew, that is seriously unlikely.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:51 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 pm
Fortunately, landrew, that is seriously unlikely.
It happened every time. How is that unlikely?
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:54 pm

The nearest analogy (if you bear with me) is when scientists study organisms by taking great care not to damage the organisms or their habitat. It's not unreasonable to expect an advanced civilization to behave that way with us, by choosing to remain out of sight as much as possible.
Funny how that scenario refutes the Fermi Paradox.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:38 pm

Landrew

Unlikely because there are no aliens to meet.

Your refutation of the Fermi Paradox makes no sense bearing in mind the time factor. If aliens arrived here one billion years ago, there would have been no one to be damaged. Just some green slime.

Against a time period of 8 billion years, potential life of alien civilisations, it is very improbable that they should visit while humans were around. But no alien foot prints, artifacts, or discarded alien coca cola cans have ever been seen, while we have found delicate fossil imprints of 500 year old jellyfish.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:07 pm

"500 hundred million year old jellyfish".
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:43 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:38 pm
Landrew

Unlikely because there are no aliens to meet.

Your refutation of the Fermi Paradox makes no sense bearing in mind the time factor. If aliens arrived here one billion years ago, there would have been no one to be damaged. Just some green slime.

Against a time period of 8 billion years, potential life of alien civilisations, it is very improbable that they should visit while humans were around. But no alien foot prints, artifacts, or discarded alien coca cola cans have ever been seen, while we have found delicate fossil imprints of 500 year old jellyfish.
I get that you're asserting the rare earth hypothesis as fact, but it's not the only one out there in circulation, nor is it the consensus, I'd say.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:20 am

No. As far as I am concerned, the Rare Earth Hypothesis has a consensus of one. (me!).

Just that it seems to me to be the best explanation for the Fermi Paradox. I have seen numerous alternative ideas and none make sense unless you also assume that alien civilisations are very rare.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:51 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:20 am
No. As far as I am concerned, the Rare Earth Hypothesis has a consensus of one. (me!).

Just that it seems to me to be the best explanation for the Fermi Paradox. I have seen numerous alternative ideas and none make sense unless you also assume that alien civilisations are very rare.
One is a bit too precise a number for me, against trillions of potential worlds in our observable universe.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:56 am

Actually, it is 100 billion stars in our galaxy. An article I read recently estimated an average of one world per star system, but we do not really know.

But we still have seen no indication of any aliens, whether by S.E.T.I. or as ancient fossils, or direct observation. The Fermi Paradox holds true. It is also almost certainly true that for a world to develop, not just life, but advanced life, will require very special conditions, which will almost certainly be very rare.

It is also true that, using technology that we already know is possible, a speed of 0.1 to 0.5 C is possible between stars. A simple calculation will tell you that, to colonize the entire galaxy to overpopulation would take only one million, or a little more than one million years. Against a background of 8 billion years for life to evolve in our galaxy, you have to ask why they are not already here.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:11 am

Here you go, landrew:

"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Poodle » Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:56 am

All will become clear when we find the Second Foundation.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by SteveKlinko » Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:34 am

landrew wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:59 pm
SETI has been banging away for decades, burning through millions of dollars, with increasing capacity for processing signals, yet there's nothing to show for it.
Isn't it about time to call it quits?
The current technology that the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) uses can only listen out to about a 1000 Light Year radius. Since the Milky Way Galaxy is 100000 Light Years across, the futility of this is obvious. With this technology we might be able to scan 0.04% of Our own Galaxy. The source signals attenuate too fast for any greater distances.

According to the last Hubble Telescope survey there are 100 Billion Galaxies in the Universe. Lets say there are 1 Million other Planets that have evolved intelligent life forms that have invented Radio transmission technologies. This means that there would be only one of these other Planets in every 100000 Galaxies. So the probability that SETI will find even one of these other Planets in our Galaxy is almost non existent. For SETI to have any possible chance of finding one of these other Planets there would have to be, assuming the Galaxy is a flat disk and using a simple ratio of areas, 2500 of them in our Galaxy. This means that there would have to be 2500 X 100 Billion, or 250 Trillion, of these Planets in the Universe for SETI to be able to find just one of them. Nobody thinks there are going to be that many of these Planets. The only hope for SETI is that these Planets are all transmitting super high power signals for the express purpose of having someone detect them. This is also unlikely. On the other hand maybe there really are 250 Trillion advanced Planets in the Universe. So I think SETI should continue it's search until we know more about the Universe.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:29 pm

Wouldn't it be funny if we could have found someone else by just listening but didn't because ...
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:28 pm

Sorry, but it still looks like "it's not working, but let's keep doing it."
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:30 pm

Well done, Steve. Nice analysis.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:00 pm

How are we going to learn more about the universe by continuing SETI?
It's not giving us anything.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:47 pm

And it never will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Poodle » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:28 pm

Well - it certainly won't if we stop doing it.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:42 pm

Poodle wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:28 pm
Well - it certainly won't if we stop doing it.
Well, it's very important we stop doing it. It scares landrip.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:48 pm

Spend more on lottery tickets.
That should do it.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:45 pm

Tedious little man.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Austin Harper » Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:59 pm

Your argument is basically:
I wonder if there are any bugs in my house? Well, I looked at the left corner of my kitchen table and didn't see any ants there so there must not be any bugs anywhere in my house. Why bother looking more?
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:43 pm

Austin Harper wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:59 pm
Your argument is basically:
I wonder if there are any bugs in my house? Well, I looked at the left corner of my kitchen table and didn't see any ants there so there must not be any bugs anywhere in my house. Why bother looking more?
So, basically the reverse from the Orkin man.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:10 am

landrew wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:00 pm
How are we going to learn more about the universe by continuing SETI?
It's not giving us anything.
It's giving us huge amounts of data.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:54 pm

Gord wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:10 am
landrew wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:00 pm
How are we going to learn more about the universe by continuing SETI?
It's not giving us anything.
It's giving us huge amounts of data.
Tons of zeroes?
OK, radio telescopy may be yielding useful data, but that's not the primary role of SETI.
Is that what you meant?
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:18 pm

Landrew

Even though I tend to think the Rare Earth Hypothesis is probably correct, and that there will be no alien contact from S.E.T.I., I am firmly in favor of research. There are heaps of scientists who have been proved wrong and I might also be proved wrong. The only way is to look.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:24 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:18 pm
Landrew

Even though I tend to think the Rare Earth Hypothesis is probably correct, and that there will be no alien contact from S.E.T.I., I am firmly in favor of research. There are heaps of scientists who have been proved wrong and I might also be proved wrong. The only way is to look.
If you mean to imply that the failure of SETI to find ET life somehow supports the rare earth hypothesis, I'm not so sure that you aren't trying to prove a negative there. By example, if I never saw you go to the bathroom, I can't conclude you never go to the bathroom.
Fair enough, but I was hoping to make the point that the SETI project has been a largely fruitless one by any reasonably objective measure.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:50 pm

That is true so far, landrew. But we cannot judge what will happen tomorrow or some time beyond that. After all, the large Hadron collider did its stuff for many years before it found the Higgs Boson.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:05 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:50 pm
That is true so far, landrew. But we cannot judge what will happen tomorrow or some time beyond that. After all, the large Hadron collider did its stuff for many years before it found the Higgs Boson.
But in all fairness, if the Hadron had been running for 40 years and still not found the Higgs Boson, would it be valid to propose that it didn't exist?
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by OlegTheBatty » Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:10 pm

SETI has to go on for 60,000 or 70,000 years before it could get a signal from the other end of the galaxy. It is in its infancy.
Then, of course, would be the question "should it wait a few million years for Andromeda to get close enough?"
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:27 pm

If another advanced society had about a century of radio broadcasting before it moved on to other technologies for communication, what are the odds that we are hitting it right when we point our radio telescopes in their direction? I'm calling the chances very slim. Perhaps akin to 2 sharpshooters, each firing a bullet over a mountain, and having the bullets collide.
If we take one of the Drake Equation's estimates for granted, and we assume 10,000 advanced civilizations in our galaxy, the odds of connecting are even more slim than my analogy. But it's still a long way from supporting the Rare Earth Hypothesis.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:07 am

landrew wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:54 pm
Gord wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:10 am
landrew wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 5:00 pm
How are we going to learn more about the universe by continuing SETI?
It's not giving us anything.
It's giving us huge amounts of data.
Tons of zeroes?
OK, radio telescopy may be yielding useful data, but that's not the primary role of SETI.
Is that what you meant?
It's searching for signs of intelligent life. "No" is one possible answer. Just because you want to get some "yes" answers doesn't mean that getting a huge number of "no" answers isn't useful.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Poodle » Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:41 am

I saw my next-door neighbours move into their new home a couple of years ago. Since then, I've had a couple of tantalising glimpses which may or may not have been them. They don't make noises, they don't make smells - it's almost as if they're not there at all. Maybe they're dead - I don't now. What should I do?

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:43 am

Poodle wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:41 am
I saw my next-door neighbours move into their new home a couple of years ago. Since then, I've had a couple of tantalising glimpses which may or may not have been them. They don't make noises, they don't make smells - it's almost as if they're not there at all. Maybe they're dead - I don't now. What should I do?
Start a new religion.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by SteveKlinko » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:28 am

Poodle wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:41 am
I saw my next-door neighbours move into their new home a couple of years ago. Since then, I've had a couple of tantalising glimpses which may or may not have been them. They don't make noises, they don't make smells - it's almost as if they're not there at all. Maybe they're dead - I don't now. What should I do?
If they were dead they probably would have made some smells by now.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:20 pm

Poodle wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:41 am
I saw my next-door neighbours move into their new home a couple of years ago. Since then, I've had a couple of tantalising glimpses which may or may not have been them. They don't make noises, they don't make smells - it's almost as if they're not there at all. Maybe they're dead - I don't now. What should I do?
Hope you get neighbours like that to move in on your other side, too?
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
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