SETI: When is enough enough?

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:02 pm

Shame on you for mentioning those two in the same breath.

BTW, Jacques le Ditch didn't originate that viewpoint.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:04 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:02 pm
Shame on you for mentioning those two in the same breath.

BTW, Jacques le Ditch didn't originate that viewpoint.
No shame here, but I have some respect for those who study a subject with an honest discipline, even if I may disagree. Unlike those who resort to shameless name-calling in lieu of their own inability to refute those whom they oppose.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:31 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:30 pm
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:16 am
Define common. aka: you can go either way.
More than one per galaxy.
Ha.............why, that is totally reasonable. When it comes to stars in the Universe, the numbers are so large, I can't keep track of them......but I have a hazy recollection of the tv saying last week that there were over 2 Trillion Galaxies...........and we all know each glaxies as lots of stars and stars have lots of planets. I'd look it up but only immediately forget again........kinda like how many "cells' are in our bodies, or microbes, or bacteria, or synapses in the brain. the numbers are so large........they have no meaning.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:02 am

landrew wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:04 pm
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:02 pm
Shame on you for mentioning those two in the same breath.

BTW, Jacques le Ditch didn't originate that viewpoint.
No shame here, but I have some respect for those who study a subject with an honest discipline, even if I may disagree. Unlike those who resort to shameless name-calling in lieu of their own inability to refute those whom they oppose.
Hypocrisy noted. And Vallee was a thoroughly documented fraud.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:42 am

Bobbo

There are an estimated 100 billion stars in our galaxy and about 100 billion galaxies estimated. But the possible errors in these estimates are so large that you could add or take away a zero from the final tally and still have a chance of being almost right.

The other factor to be taken into account is time. We know that life on Earth evolved into intelligence in about 4 billion years, and we also know that a big part of our galaxy is over 8 billion years old. If there were a number of planets (say ten or more) in our galaxy that also evolved intelligence, some would have done so billions of years ago. Since an intelligent species could occupy our galaxy entirely in no more than 10 million years (and that is seriously conservative), if any other intelligent species had evolved, they should have reached Earth a billion or more years ago. Yet no trace of other worldly intelligence remains.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:19 am

I haven't reached a verdict on whether we are alone in the universe or if we are just a population of curious apes being studied and left alone by other intelligent species who deem it best to leave us to develop on our own without causing too much damage. I don't think any reasonable mind could settle on only one possibility, especially in lieu of any tangible evidence. We simply don't have the evidence required for such certainty.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by mack_10 » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:09 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:42 am
Bobbo

There are an estimated 100 billion stars in our galaxy and about 100 billion galaxies estimated. But the possible errors in these estimates are so large that you could add or take away a zero from the final tally and still have a chance of being almost right.

The other factor to be taken into account is time. We know that life on Earth evolved into intelligence in about 4 billion years, and we also know that a big part of our galaxy is over 8 billion years old. If there were a number of planets (say ten or more) in our galaxy that also evolved intelligence, some would have done so billions of years ago. Since an intelligent species could occupy our galaxy entirely in no more than 10 million years (and that is seriously conservative), if any other intelligent species had evolved, they should have reached Earth a billion or more years ago. Yet no trace of other worldly intelligence remains.
It does make you wonder about dinosaurs, primates evolved to this level of intelligence in 65 million years, the dinosaurs were around for 150 million years.
The evolutionary advantages of intelligence seem proven, did the dinosaurs evolve an intelligence at least as good as our own only to be wiped out by an untimely asteroid.
65 million years later no trace of their advanced civilisation would be left, even stone pyramids would have been eroded to dust
Maybe we should focus a little less on SETI and more on asteroid watch

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:41 am

Evolution doesn't have a "goal."
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:45 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:41 am
Evolution doesn't have a "goal."
how do you know?

after all,

there is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.


maybe when evolution's random walk hits a specific point, the game gets reset.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gord » Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:47 am

mack_10 wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:09 am
The evolutionary advantages of intelligence seem proven...
Do they? I don't see them.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:14 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:45 am
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:41 am
Evolution doesn't have a "goal."
how do you know?

after all,

there is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.


maybe when evolution's random walk hits a specific point, the game gets reset.
Evidence? No.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:55 pm

mack_10 wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:09 am
The evolutionary advantages of intelligence seem proven, did the dinosaurs evolve an intelligence at least as good as our own only to be wiped out by an untimely asteroid.
65 million years later no trace of their advanced civilisation would be left, even stone pyramids would have been eroded to dust
Maybe we should focus a little less on SETI and more on asteroid watch
In that formula for finding life in the universe, isn't one or two of the terms extremely variable in stopping life on those possible planets and it comes down to nuclear war or global warming/pollution which are the seemingly unavoidable products of "Big Brains" and the recognition that "Big Brains may be an evolutionary dead end." In this context, intelligence/big brains does not mean scrapping a point on a tree branch. It means having technology that can destroy the planet if you use it.............and what that is made is never used??? I'd meat you 1/10th of the way and say intelligence has an initial advantage but its benefit for species longevity has not been established with all the logical inferences strongly against it.

Wouldn't smart dinos leave their fossils? Claws turned into fingernails, opposable thumb and what not?

But Yea Verily on the asteroid watch. We are missing out big time there. Is saving the hooman race "worth" letting china take over??
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:06 pm

An intelligence big enough to cause a Nuclear Winter or the like is big enough to survive it.
Many not most humans, but enough to re-populate the earth. For the survival of the species, we might need less than a million.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:10 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:06 pm
An intelligence big enough to cause a Nuclear Winter or the like is big enough to survive it.
Many not most humans, but enough to re-populate the earth. For the survival of the species, we might need less than a million.
I don't know what the "odds" are. Obviously its maybe/maybe not? I thought we had at least two "bottlenecks" where our species was counted in the thousands? At least we agree it puts a crimp in sending out spaceships to colonize the universe or radiowaves to communicate out desire to hook up.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:18 pm

I see the bottleneck in what was discussed in the photosynthesis thread: the higher the intelligence, the slower its biological evolution. Sooner or later, the pathogens will win unless you move into a sterile environment or change substrate to silico.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:21 pm

Well, another Big Brain risk is sped up/intentional interference in our dna/speciation? Darwin no longer in charge: its every steam-punk hacker with a CRISPR on his desktop. Ha, ha.......just another case of what is made and available will not be used + Murphy's Law + "at the worst possible time."

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:26 pm

the amount of tinkering you can do with DNA is limited by the requirement to have a uterus still accept the blastocyte as human.
Which means that you can go back to "organic" humans if you realize that tentacle arms aren't everyone's cup of tea.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:30 pm

Ah,,,that is an excellent point EM..............for now? I mean they are already printing organs with 3D printers. How could the uterus, or a used sausage casing, not be long coming?
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:31 pm

Ha ha........or coming shortly? I just made the kind of error I criticize seeing all too often on tv. Well known sayings applied actually meaning the opposite of what is meant. It goes by unmentioned/recognized (?) 99% of the time.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:40 pm

sure, no clue what the next 100 years will bring - I expect it to be beautiful and horrendous at the same time. Many people will suffer, others will experience what no human has ever experienced before.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:59 pm

Yea verily........coincidently, the link was in my news feed. the usual delay to get to the meat, but still kinda interesting with the telling observation: "What we consider disaster today is how our ancestors lived 150 years ago." ///// Thing is........when disaster does hit, the horde will not be going thru the trash bins, they'll be going thru the guys root cellar.

http://www.lostways.org/vsl/index_adw.p ... &split=210

yeah, its only the first two minutes that has any info. The rest is the endless never get to it pitch.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:32 pm

A quick google search reveals several sites that predict 90% of the population would die if we lose the power grid:
https://urbansurvivalsite.com/populatio ... ectricity/
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:29 pm

landrew wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:32 pm
A quick google search reveals several sites that predict 90% of the population would die if we lose the power grid:
https://urbansurvivalsite.com/populatio ... ectricity/
Interesting arm chair read, but the 90% seems like a total baseless wag to me. I would put it MUCH HIGHER.....but that is just my wag. 90% is a place to start anyway. Lance would call that good adapting.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:33 pm

In this case, I would call it bull shite.

Do you really believe a web site called urban survival site ? Survivalist drivel.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:44 pm

Hah, hah.......while I basically kinda agree...........I'll take drivel over baseless reality denying optimism.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:08 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:33 pm
In this case, I would call it bull shite.

Do you really believe a web site called urban survival site ? Survivalist drivel.
If you can refute the facts, do so. It doesn't matter the source if the facts are right.
Besides, there are a lot more sources that say the same thing:
https://www.google.com/search?q=million ... e&ie=UTF-8
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:10 pm

I consider 90% an overstatement.

There are a lot of generators, a lot of oil reserves and a lot of trucks around. Supermarkets have a LOT of canned goods and staples such a flour and sugar.
There is also a lot of decentralized power nowadays, as well as non-electric ways to clean water.
Bookshops and Libraries have shelves full of survival guides.
Whoever survives the first winter will probably continue to survive.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:29 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:10 pm
I consider 90% an overstatement.

There are a lot of generators, a lot of oil reserves and a lot of trucks around. Supermarkets have a LOT of canned goods and staples such a flour and sugar.
There is also a lot of decentralized power nowadays, as well as non-electric ways to clean water.
Bookshops and Libraries have shelves full of survival guides.
Whoever survives the first winter will probably continue to survive.
It's been estimated that the stores will run out of food in 9 days. Without electricity to pump fuel, the trucks will not run either. There aren't enough generators for everyone, and they are mostly limited to a few hours of running time on a tank of fuel. More importantly, the infrastructure depends on electronic communication to function, and that can't work without electricity.

This is a topic that is best to research before you embark on your own speculation. Things are likely to be a lot worse than we might imagine.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:37 pm

And if a giant asteroid hits our world, we will all die.

Total loss of the grid is seriously unlikely, and even where there may be electricity shortfalls it will not be total. Not to mention that people have this amazing ability to adapt and do innovative things.

The idea of 90% death toll is just a paranoid delusion.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:17 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:37 pm
And if a giant asteroid hits our world, we will all die.

Total loss of the grid is seriously unlikely, and even where there may be electricity shortfalls it will not be total. Not to mention that people have this amazing ability to adapt and do innovative things.

The idea of 90% death toll is just a paranoid delusion.
Wouldn't a nuclear warhead 200 Miles overhead do exactly that?....take out the ENTIRE GRID? Close enough I would think. ...........Ha, ha....yes Lance, an ability to adapt to NO ELECTRICITY: would be amazing.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:23 pm

Out of fresh food, maybe. Not out of stuff you can survive on.
Also, there's always corpses to eat if so many die.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:30 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:17 pm
Wouldn't a nuclear warhead 200 Miles overhead do exactly that?....take out the ENTIRE GRID? Close enough I would think. ...........Ha, ha....yes Lance, an ability to adapt to NO ELECTRICITY: would be amazing.
[/quote]

It has been done, and it didn't.

In the 1960s an American nuclear test detonated a nuke about 200 miles up. It created spectacular skies, with lights like an Aurora. But had no effect on the grid.

So no to Bobbo.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:33 pm

Was it designed to take out the grid?.............or designed not to????
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Lance Kennedy » Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:41 pm

9 July 1962, a 1.4 megaton bomb detonated 250 miles up.

I remember it. I was just 13 years old and I went outside at night with my family to see the light effects.

It was a test. I may be naive, but I suspect that the people planning the test already knew it would not affect the grid. And no. I do not know any military secrets, so I cannot tell you what their aims were.

EMPs follow the inverse square law, so their effect from that far away would be severely limited. If an attack was DESIGNED to damage electronics, they would detonate it at a low altitude, which would limit the area it affected. So the idea of the WHOLE grid is kinda unlikely.

Mind you, if that kind of nuclear attack was under way, the grid would be the least of your worries. I am prepared to admit that out and out nuclear war might well kill off 90% of the population.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by TJrandom » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:44 pm

When I was born, we had no electricity and when I die, I expect to have no electricity. For now I am enjoying it, but could easily live without it.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by landrew » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:04 pm

TJrandom wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:44 pm
When I was born, we had no electricity and when I die, I expect to have no electricity. For now I am enjoying it, but could easily live without it.
I'm sure I could live without electricity too, but why would I want to do that?
I don't want to.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:00 am

TJrandom wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:44 pm
When I was born, we had no electricity and when I die, I expect to have no electricity. For now I am enjoying it, but could easily live without it.
I thought you were Japanese? why no dinky then? That only makes sense if you were an Eskimo.
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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by Matthew Ellard » Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:52 am

Lance Kennedy wrote: In the 1960s an American nuclear test detonated a nuke about 200 miles up. It created spectacular skies, with lights like an Aurora. But had no effect on the grid.
The EMP observed at the Apia Observatory at Samoa was four times more powerful than any created by solar storms, while in July 1962 the Starfish Prime test, damaged electronics in Honolulu and New Zealand (approximately 1,300 kilometers away)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-alti ... _explosion

I thought airbursts to knock out entire grids from EMP had to be very low and close to the target.

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Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by mack_10 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:55 am

Gord wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:47 am
mack_10 wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:09 am
The evolutionary advantages of intelligence seem proven...
Do they? I don't see them.
that may have something to do with where you live
You seriously do not think intelligence has an evolutionary advantage?
Last edited by mack_10 on Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

mack_10
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Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:30 am

Re: SETI: When is enough enough?

Post by mack_10 » Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:57 am

ElectricMonk wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:26 pm
the amount of tinkering you can do with DNA is limited by the requirement to have a uterus still accept the blastocyte as human.
Which means that you can go back to "organic" humans if you realize that tentacle arms aren't everyone's cup of tea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus