Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

How should we think about weird things?
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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Poodle » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:49 am

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:I dreamed I won the lottery and married Jane Fonda.

………….I'm still waiting.

I dreamed I hadn't won the lottery, and I didn't. Spooky!!!!!!!

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby busterggi » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:04 pm

"I dreamed I hadn't won the lottery, and I didn't. Spooky!!!!!!!"

What are the odds???

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:35 pm

Magic thinking: it is possible to win a lottery, marrying Jane Fonda....maybe not so much.

I posted after seeing her at age 35 on dick cavett. She was magnificent, beautiful, informed, caring, persuasive, active, AND CORRECT in her opinions against the tide of unthinking conformity===>even when climbing on that AA battery. ((Well.....maybe not correct on THAT one, but fully understandable.)) But "today" that is not the Jane Fonda I could marry....but would choose not to. For the same reason that she divorced Ted Turner (or whichever way it worked). Got to be a Shakespearean Tragedy for Teddy to marry Jane and then have her go religious on him to the point she could not be lived with. The contra: always excellent to know EXACTLY what the issue is......unless Jane went religious because Ted is the anti-Christ???...………………… aka: we never "KNOW." that in itself is a religious orientation.
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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby kurt forrer » Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:33 am

To Lance (Kennedy) It has everything to do with dreams. Your point-blank dismissal leads me to suspect that you have not studied your dreams. You will possibly regard them, as does Phillip Adams, as the wastepaper basket of the waking experience. I happen to agree with your conclusion that "coincidences are inevitabilities". They are inevitable because our dreams are the software for our brain. They are the blueprints of life. Your statistics are no more than probabilities, whereas my view of the dream's role in existence allows for precise results. I have devised a scientific method of verifying or falsifying the validity of a dream's interpretation. (See my essay "To test or not to test that is the Question", published by the University of Heidelberg, Germany, in their International Journal of Dream Research). Neither Freud nor Jung was able to verify their interpretations by means of any test. Nor has anyone else to my knowledge. Kurt

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Matthew Ellard » Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:28 am

kurt forrer wrote: They (dreams) are inevitable because our dreams are the software for our brain.
Dreams are not software as software defines how the program will run. In reality, dreams don't follow any order.

You seem reluctant to now support your earlier ridiculous claim, that dreams are predictive. I viewed your paper.


“To test or not to test; that is the question.”: Is there a way of verifying the validity of the interpretation of our dreams?
Kurt Forrer / Maldon Victoria, Australia / 2014

"However, in order to keep our study within a scientific framework, we are obliged to find a type of verification that will leave no doubt in our mind whether or not all dreams ‘rule both our conscious and unconscious life absolutely’, as does Freud’s Unconscious."

Our unconscious doesn't rule our life absolutely and I have no idea why you claim dreams would rule our lives absolutely.

Upon reading your paper it became clear you would be subjectively defining the meaning of dreams (if people remembered them properly at all) in the same way people subjectively interpret Tarot cards. I'm sorry but this is nonsense.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:27 am

I'm with Matt. Silly to propose that any one anything "always" does anything else. Childish. Especially on this subject where dreams are more than anything else just a processing of the memories we have of an event, or casting forward of our hopes and goals. Like evolution, dreams are the result of something else, not the cause of much of anything.
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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby kurt forrer » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:36 am

And science subjectively interprets physics. Do you really BELIEVE that the world is an objective reality? Does the world exist when you are asleep? Does the dream world exist when you are awake? In each case the mind of the subject is of necessity in order to perceive anything. So both the waking world and the dream world are on equal footing as far as the reality check is concerned. You cannot argue that the world exists to others when you are asleep. There are no 'waking others' to consult when you are asleep. Also true reality is unchanging. Neither the dream nor the waking world are unchanging, they both depend on the subject. The waking world comes and goes just as the dream will come and go.
Hence all that exists is a subjective matter. Matter in waking is just as illusive as matter in a dream.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby kurt forrer » Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:53 am

“To test or not to test; that is the question.”: Is there a way of verifying the validity of the interpretation of our dreams?
Kurt Forrer / Maldon Victoria, Australia / 2014
"However, in order to keep our study within a scientific framework, we are obliged to find a type of verification that will leave no doubt in our mind whether or not all dreams ‘rule both our conscious and unconscious life absolutely’, as does Freud’s Unconscious." There was a time when no one doubted Newton's theory of gravity.... til Einstein came along and then again QM etc. I venture to say that you did not test my essay to "Test" by following its procedure using your own dreams. Real science is testing the test practically and not ditching new ideas because they do not fit into your current basic beliefs.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Matthew Ellard » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:19 am

kurt forrer wrote:And science subjectively interprets physics.
No. The scientific method requires a testable falsifiable scientific hypothesis. Didn't you know?

kurt forrer wrote:Does the world exist when you are asleep?
Yes it does. I can set up a video camera and film the world when I'm asleep. How's that for a simple experiment?

kurt forrer wrote:Does the dream world exist when you are awake?
No, as there is no such thing as a dream world. If I dream of a world of monsters or think of a world of monsters when awake....it doesn't make that world real does it?

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Matthew Ellard » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:26 am

kurt forrer wrote: There was a time when no one doubted Newton's theory of gravity.... til Einstein came along
....yes....and Einstein proposed falsifiable experiments for his scientific hypothesis.

What is your point? You don't have a falsifiable hypothesis. You are pretending people can remember their dreams accurately and then you are pretending you can objectively interpret the bits of other people's dreams, they can remember.

Have you ever heard of the Sapir Whorf theory of linguistics. How am I going to interpret someone else''s dream's meaning?

(Aussies use the word "pissed" for being drunk. Americans use the word "pissed" for anger. You cannot compare Aussie and American conversations and have the same meaning. The same applies to visual metaphors and so on. Didn't you think this through?


It goes down hill from here.
"When we wake up with a dream in which we heard a song, it is worthwhile to pay attention to the lyrics since they have a habit of indicating what is ahead for the coming day. I have found that there are a good number of people who have observed this on several occasions. It is actually a reliable way of predicting the immediate future. This is not so surprising because our dreams are the blueprint of waking. I have shown this in my essay “To test or not to test, that is the Question”
https://journals.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/i ... view/33195

Can we see your detailed scientific hypothesis and experimental methodology and statistical results? :D

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Lance Kennedy » Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:20 pm

Totally agree with Matthew.
The idea of dreams as having some kind of real world reality is nonsense. They do not. If they did, then proper scientific experimentation would have shown it, and that has not happened. We have not yet even fully nailed down the function of dreams, but they almost certainly are related to brain functioning rather than anything external.

The coincidences mentioned in this thread are easily explained mathematically, as I have done. Where a nice simple explanation suffices, it is idiotic to look for complex and mystical, superstition based ones.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby kurt forrer » Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:28 am

I can't remember where else in serious science the phrase "religious garbage occurs". I always find that such dismissive terms say more about the critic than about the criticised. What can one say about a Mozart symphony to someone who is tone deaf? About as much as about dreams to someone who has not studied them. Please read now my essay "To test to or not to test that is the Question". It describes in detail how to test the ability of dreams to predict the future. It can be replicated by anyone who is familiar with Freud's sexual interpretation of the dream. As well as that one must follow the plot of the dream, as Jung admonished us to do. If you strike trouble I am here to help.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:12 am

kurt forrer wrote:I can't remember where else in serious science the phrase "religious garbage occurs". I always find that such dismissive terms say more about the critic than about the criticised.
You have chosen to post on a scientific skeptic forum. If you don't have a scientific, falsifiable & testable hypothesis and if your experimental methodology is not scientific, I suggest you relocate to the following non-scientific, non-skeptical forums.

David Icke Forum : Exposing the Dream we believe to be real.
https://forum.davidicke.com/forumdisplay.php?f=3

God-like-Productions Forum
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/

kurt forrer wrote: What can one say about a Mozart symphony to someone who is tone deaf? 'quote] Exactly. It is impossible for people like ourselves, with science knowledge, to explain to people like yourself that your claim is complete fanciful nonsense.

kurt forrer wrote:Please read now my essay "To test to or not to test that is the Question".
I did and it was garbage. Firstly, I already asked you how you got around Sapir Whorf linguistic theory and you ignored my question. Secondly, I asked for your methodology and resulting statistics to see what "hits" you had with the predictive nature of your "method". You had no statistics at all. Thirdly, I asked how you got around people only remembering part of their dreams when recalling it for you. You did not answer my question. :lol:

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby kurt forrer » Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:22 am

My test of the dream's predictive nature is replicable and either will verify or falsify the hypothesis. It is clearly set out in my essay and providing you are familiar with Freud's sexual interpretation and are aware that the thrust of the plot has to be followed when interpreting, you will get the dream's precognitive character verified. Ergo my exposition can claim to be scientific. I am somewhat puzzled that you could not see this after reading my exposition.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:20 pm

Kurt

Science requires hypotheses to be tested in the real world, with the clear intention of falsifying that which is wrong. This has already been done, many times, for the idea that dreams are predictive. You are not the first to 'dream 'up that idea, and it has already been shown to be wrong.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby landrew » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:10 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:Kurt

Science requires hypotheses to be tested in the real world, with the clear intention of falsifying that which is wrong. This has already been done, many times, for the idea that dreams are predictive. You are not the first to 'dream 'up that idea, and it has already been shown to be wrong.

Aye, that which is true can never be falsified, and that which is false can never be verified.
The job of a skeptic is to investigate the unexplained; not to explain the uninvestigated.

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:29 am

Similarities with other Predictive Interpretation & Accuracy Experiments
The skeptic community has a good strong history in debunking "interpretation"experiments. It was work done concerning the interpretation and accuracy of horoscopes that will supply quick debunking tools. I will apply these debunks to Kurt's experiment when it takes place.

Dream Interpretation Experiment Failures
The first obvious failure is that the subject has to remember all of his entire dream for the experiment to have any validity. As it currently stands the subject will only remember parts of the dream and subjective bias means that the subject will only remember parts of the dream important to that individual . A KGB officer in his uniform may mean something to me, but will look like a bus conductor to anyone else so another person won't mention that uniformed person.


Kurt offers a really good example of this sort of failure in his book. Kurt say it would be obvious that a woman playing a cello in a dream predicts that the woman will have a higher libido that following day. ( I guess because the cello sits between the woman's legs while she strokes it) Obviously, this is complete crap. Perhaps like me and my piano exams, the subject had nightmares about playing the cello for another simple reason. It also falls apart when you consider a man dreaming about playing the cello.

The second obvious failure is that the accuracy of the prediction is assessed by the subject himself. For the female dreaming of playing the cello, the only person who would know if she had a higher libido the following day would be the same woman. This means all objectivity is removed from interpretation. Again this shows the experiment is complete rubbish.

Thirdly, sexual metaphors do not span cultures, or even individuals for that matter. I like girls with a small bottom. However, Hottentots and Kim Kardasian fans like girls with huge bottoms. What is sexual to them, is not sexual to me. Our dreams are not going to share metaphors.

This crap comes from Pop Culture
Here is the dream sequence from Spellbound, where Salvador Dali "creates" what he things a dream would contain, to fit the film's narrative. Kurt has mistaken art for real dreams and thinks to process works the other way around.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyPe1Jahyfo


Here is a similar dream sequence from Fellini's "8 1/2" detailing the smothered film director.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TsElhgMeXE

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Re: Strange Coincidence and magic thinking

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:23 am

What does a man dream is stroking him when playing the cello?
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