Ladybrook-split thread

PSI, Mediums, Ghosts, UFOs, Things That Go Bump In The Night
Lucianarchy
BANNED
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 1:54 pm

Postby Lucianarchy » Tue Apr 12, 2005 6:56 pm

SkepticReport wrote:
Lucianarchy wrote:Please, stay on topic.


Hey, I was merely asking why you wanted your nickname so bad on this board, in order not to be misunderstood. Apparently, that is not an issue anymore.

On topic? Fine with me.

  • Where, precisely, did you predict the Ladybrook attack?
  • Why did you change your account of when you predicted it no less than 7 times?
  • How many hits on "Ladybrook" will relate to the original JREF discussion? Please post the Google search string.
  • Do you agree that your predictions on the dates August 4th, 2004, September 21st, 2004, October 21st, 2004 were all failures?
  • If you are so sure that you predicted "Ladybrook" before it happened, why this total confusion on when you predicted it?
  • Do you agree that your own source referred to the police and not "NI intelligence"?
  • Who was psychically co-operating with you in Ireland?
  • Did you try to sell the effect as a mentalist trick on the Mental-List forums?


I am not trying to convince you of anything.

User avatar
SkepticReport
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1759
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:07 pm
Contact:

Postby SkepticReport » Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:02 pm

Lucianarchy wrote:
SkepticReport wrote:
Lucianarchy wrote:Please, stay on topic.


Hey, I was merely asking why you wanted your nickname so bad on this board, in order not to be misunderstood. Apparently, that is not an issue anymore.

On topic? Fine with me.

  • Where, precisely, did you predict the Ladybrook attack?
  • Why did you change your account of when you predicted it no less than 7 times?
  • How many hits on "Ladybrook" will relate to the original JREF discussion? Please post the Google search string.
  • Do you agree that your predictions on the dates August 4th, 2004, September 21st, 2004, October 21st, 2004 were all failures?
  • If you are so sure that you predicted "Ladybrook" before it happened, why this total confusion on when you predicted it?
  • Do you agree that your own source referred to the police and not "NI intelligence"?
  • Who was psychically co-operating with you in Ireland?
  • Did you try to sell the effect as a mentalist trick on the Mental-List forums?


I am not trying to convince you of anything.


I am not asking you to convince me. I am asking you to answer the questions. They are pivotal to your claim that you have paranormal powers.

Lucianarchy
BANNED
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 1:54 pm

Postby Lucianarchy » Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:14 pm

SkepticReport wrote:
I am not asking you to convince me. I am asking you to answer the questions. They are pivotal to your claim that you have paranormal powers.


I believe they are more pivotal to your own needs and dependances, not mine.

User avatar
SkepticReport
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1759
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:07 pm
Contact:

Postby SkepticReport » Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:40 pm

Lucianarchy wrote:
SkepticReport wrote:
I am not asking you to convince me. I am asking you to answer the questions. They are pivotal to your claim that you have paranormal powers.


I believe they are more pivotal to your own needs and dependances, not mine.


Do you?

You really think that a question like "Where, precisely, did you predict the Ladybrook attack?" is pivotal to my own needs and dependances?

Can you give an example of a question that was challenging your claim, but was not pivotal to the poster's own needs and dependances?

User avatar
Ashles
New Member
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 2:31 pm
Location: Location: Location:

Postby Ashles » Wed Apr 13, 2005 12:00 am

Lucianarchy wrote:It's not a probem for me. I responded on a thread here about personal experiences and it was split and initiated to this one.

I think you have got confused here Lucianarchy.

You have made a claim to a paranormal ability. We have seen many such claims before.
I have come up with a method by which you may have come up with your 'prediction'. I am sure there are others. You also have not been able to replicate your prediction.
You say it was not done by a mundane method. But then so does Uri Geller, Derek Acorah, John Edwards etc.
I also enjoy your implication that these are just strange things that happen to you and you are a bold seeker of the truth trying to explain them.
But then when you make clear predictions they are invariably completely wrong.
If you were genuine these repeated incorrect predictions should make you at least doubt the significance of your experiences.
If you were genuine.

It's also worth noting that your RV 'ability' is still entirely without foundation.

Personally I don't believe you. Your inability to replicate it has been very telling. Either you are guessing and getting it wrong, or these dates have been popping into your head mystically, and also been wrong. Either way it is random.

And as for Paj's book experiment - that was hilarious. You guessed right on the first go - then continued guessing and kept getting it wrong, then quit trying because your average kept plummeting. Surely if you were really curious about your 'ability' you would have kept trying?

I don't know about the other 'experiments' - I do remember you being told off by the Fortean Times moderators for implying that you had done something as a test with them when you were just chatting on their forums.

It's a little strange that you (the 'genuine' seeker for explanations) still refuse to answer mine and Larsen's questions.

So the real question is what need of yours does this continual story-telling fulfil?
At about 6 I tend to watch the sun go down while drinking a cocktail - Random LBC caller

Lucianarchy
BANNED
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 1:54 pm

Postby Lucianarchy » Wed Apr 13, 2005 3:52 pm

Ashles wrote:
Lucianarchy wrote:It's not a probem for me.


Personally I don't believe you.


Like I said, believe what you will, that's not a problem for me. I'm looking for answers for me, not you.

User avatar
SkepticReport
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1759
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:07 pm
Contact:

Postby SkepticReport » Wed Apr 13, 2005 4:48 pm

Lucianarchy,

Can you give an example of a question that was challenging your claim, but was not pivotal to the poster's own needs and dependances?

Corey
Poster
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 2:45 pm

Postby Corey » Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:51 pm

SkepticReport wrote:These are the facts:

Lucianarchy claims to have predicted a "Ladybrook terrorist attack". This is not correct.

Facts:

  • Lucianarchy said nothing about it being a premonition, or anything paranormal.
  • He did not say anything about it being a terrorist attack.
  • He simply stated a word.
  • There was a bus hijacking, but nobody was hurt.
  • The hijacking was foiled.
  • It happened near Ladybrook, not at Ladybrook.
  • The forum clock was not precise, making the exact time of posting insecure.
  • The target for the "attack" was a policestation, which has been the target of numerous attacks before.

Lucianarchy first claimed it wasn't a "prediction". Later, he claimed it was.

Lucianarchy claimed that "ladybrook" was an "extremely uncommon word". This is not correct.

Lucianarchy claimed there were only two mentions of "ladybrook" in the media. This is not correct.

Fact:
No less than 6 news items were found about "ladybrook".

Lucianarchy changed his account of when the prediction happened at least 7 times. That's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 times. This is a huge red flag.

I'd like to add that SkepticReport is absolutely correct on every point here and this was pointed out to Luci on JREF and the facts were ignored, as is the case here.
This sort of denial is symptomatic of a number of problems, but it might be just lying.

NoMan
Poster
Posts: 152
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:03 am

Postby NoMan » Sun Aug 07, 2005 12:13 am

Just a question, have you ever had a history of epileptic attacks? I'll bother explaining why I ask that if the answer is yes.

Here's the problem with a minor 'premonition'. I imagine everyone on this board, (I have at least), has had minor premonitions. For example, I dreamed in college that I would have a pop quiz the next day. Sure enough, I had a test on the syllabus for English 102. Am I a psychic? No. I didn't predict which class, (of three for the day), I didn't predict what the test would be on, (which would have made me pay attention to the damn syllabus), and a whole list of other problems with my psychic capabilities can be imagined.

The important part of this is that it's merely a matter of the confirmation bias. We remember our correct predictions, but forget the incorrect ones. Further, in regards to the extraordinary, if something has a one in a million chance a day of happening, it happens to 300 people in America, everyday.

With regards to statistics, if you make a prediction, (here, one word), the vaguer the greater the statistical odds of a match. There's nothing magical about this. Read Dr. Shermer's article on John Edwards "Crossing Over". It's a matter of playing the odds in favor of yourself. If you wanted to convince anyone of psychic powers, you would have to use what scientists use, "convergence of a theory."

Let's say a scientist wants to prove that the earth is old. He first finds confirmation from cosmology, which tells him the Earth and Universe have been around for billions of years. He then finds that nuclear physics allows the Sun to exist for billions of years, confirming cosmology. He then finds from geologists that the Earth is dated to billions of years old. Etc. All of these fields eliminate the bias from one field, meaning that in order to overturn the theory, *hundreds* of other theories would have to be wrong. While not impossible, the odds against it are minor.

In your case, you would have to prove with multiple confirmations of psychic predictions with little to no inaccuracies, (multiple confirmations with multiple failures is just playing statistics again), without vague, hazy, or interpretive meanings. That way, the statistical odds of you guessing correctly would be against you, not for you.

HghrSymmetry
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2024
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:11 pm
Custom Title: ViewClearerFromAbove

Re: Yes

Postby HghrSymmetry » Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:35 am

[quote] Nope. I am not attributing it to luck, but to vagueness. If you make a vague 'prediction' then it becomes very easy to attach meaning to it later. The more vague the prediction, the easier it gets. And you don't get a lot more vague than a single word. Simply put, if you want to be taken seriously, you'll have to be a lot less ambiguous.
[quote]

I was also thinking of something a bit more quantifiable. Perhaps a prediction of a very large pot in a Power-Ball lottery. If we had the winning numbers before hand....wow, that would be fantastic. We could share the wealth here on the boards.
:)

Guest

Postby Guest » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:14 pm

Corey wrote:I'd like to add that [...].


yes,....and I'd just like to remind you that the terrorist attack at Ladybrook happened within hours of Lucianarchy mentioning the location - in a thread entirely designed to 'test' their psychic ability.

Possibly, in all modesty, the clearest, most precise example of psychic ability ever demonstrated in the face of skepticism.

The result was that the Darat allowed and encouraged a campaign of harassment against Lucianarchy by skeptic report and allowed the publishing of personal details of the workplace and other contact details of a member of their family. When that attempt at censorship didn't work, they simply banned Lucianarchy outright on a trumped up charge, without warning and against established precedent.

Ladybrook - The shame of skepticism.

User avatar
Pyrrho
Administrator
Posts: 10319
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:31 am
Contact:

Postby Pyrrho » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:50 pm

Claus Larsen wrote:
Corey wrote:I'd like to add that [...].


yes,....and I'd just like to remind you that the terrorist attack at Ladybrook happened within hours of Lucianarchy mentioning the location - in a thread entirely designed to 'test' their psychic ability.

Possibly, in all modesty, the clearest, most precise example of psychic ability ever demonstrated in the face of skepticism.

The result was that the Darat allowed and encouraged a campaign of harassment against Lucianarchy by skeptic report and allowed the publishing of personal details of the workplace and other contact details of a member of their family. When that attempt at censorship didn't work, they simply banned Lucianarchy outright on a trumped up charge, without warning and against established precedent.

Ladybrook - The shame of skepticism.

[mod]Lucianarchy, our rules specifically prohibit multiple user accounts. Both of your user accounts have been deactivated and your primary user account, "Lucianarchy", has been banned. Considering that we intervened on your behalf when someone else pretended to be you, Lucianarchy, your use of someone else's name as a sock puppet is particularly offensive. Goodbye.[/mod]

User avatar
statisticool
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1896
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2005 6:22 am
Contact:

Postby statisticool » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:10 pm

Account Deleted wrote:Possibly, in all modesty, the clearest, most precise example of psychic ability ever demonstrated in the face of skepticism.


Hardly.

Such things to be seriously considered as examples need to be done in a scientific setting including a well-designed experiment.


Return to “UFOs, Cryptozoology, and The Paranormal”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest