Advanced alien life improbable.

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Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:41 pm

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/

Article one in the reference above argues that, if we take away our pre existing assumptions about life on other planets, (those assumptions coming from the fact that there is life on Earth ), we are left with no basis whatever for expecting advanced life elsewhere to be anything but very rare. Life began early on our planet, but may not do so on any other planet. If evolution proceeds at the same pace, then a planet with life that is 3.3 billion years old instead of the estimated 3.5 billion here, will have nothing more advanced than primitive reptiles.

The authors predict that we will find nothing but relatively primitive life on the vast majority of exoplanets.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:01 pm

"Error of small samples" in action.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:21 pm

That, Gawd, is the point the authors were making. People predicting widespread life on the basis of what we see on Earth.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:43 pm

AND people claiming that life is improbable elsewhere on the basis of what we see on Earth. Same-same.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:01 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:That, Gawd, is the point the authors were making. People predicting widespread life on the basis of what we see on Earth.

Lance: best insight/comment I recall you making. Its the "best" argument: accept the counter and apply it as stated.

Well done.

Gawd: it is all statistics. I'd think you'd be on board. but...... first uttered, hard to retract.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:04 pm

I'm indifferent to assertions made with insufficient evidence.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:13 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:I'm indifferent to assertions made with insufficient evidence.

You go with the best assertions made with the best evidence you have. ......... and in fact, you are not indifferent, just disagreeable for no point or purpose at all, being in violation of common sense as you are.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:32 pm

That's your assertion.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:39 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:That's your assertion.

Whats your assertion then? Go with less than the best?
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:41 pm

We don't have enough information to make an uneducated guess.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:44 pm

Well, thats simply not true Gawd. Read what Lance posted..........until it makes sense. You won't get a definite answer, you have to deal with ambiguity. The "best" answer, not the proven definite dispositive answer. Being a kneejerk naysayer does not work for every proposition.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:45 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:That, Gawd, is the point the authors were making. People predicting widespread life on the basis of what we see on Earth.

Conversely, people predicting not much life at all on the basis of a couple of what-ifs flying in the face of our prime (but singular) example are at least as likely to be wrong. So we don't know and we don't not-know. I'd suggest that we carry on trying to find out rather than playing pointless mind games.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:46 pm

Understanding the Universe, or maybe even some part of our existence in it, is not pointless. It is a game, being all things are..................
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:48 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Well, thats simply not true Gawd. Read what Lance posted..........until it makes sense. You won't get a definite answer, you have to deal with ambiguity. The "best" answer, not the proven definite dispositive answer. Being a kneejerk naysayer does not work for every proposition.

Now I remember why you're on ignore.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:49 pm

You missed the point, bobbo, Understanding the universe is a laudable ambition. Guessing its nature is a waste of time.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:06 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Well, thats simply not true Gawd. Read what Lance posted..........until it makes sense. You won't get a definite answer, you have to deal with ambiguity. The "best" answer, not the proven definite dispositive answer. Being a kneejerk naysayer does not work for every proposition.

Now I remember why you're on ignore.

yeah...........so you are not indifferent.

Good boy.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:09 pm

Poodle wrote:You missed the point, bobbo, Understanding the universe is a laudable ambition. Guessing its nature is a waste of time.

But "guessing" is exactly how we come to understand ............. ANYTHING.

Yes, it is laudable. and, I don't label what Lance posted as a "guess." It almost flows from entropy.....and a very open an interesting question as to whether or not "self aware" intellect is favored by Darwin or not. My vote is on: Not.... just like Carl Sagan implied when writing the final element of his "life in the Universe" equation so many years ago.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:33 pm

Just by coincidence, the next item in my newsfeed:

"For those working on the cutting edge at the time, science involves taking risks, exploring novel scenarios, and striking out in a direction never attempted before." /// aka: guessing.

An interesting short read with nice graphics: "Five Discoveries In Fundamental Physics That Came As Total Surprises"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswith ... 0cfb0a6f44
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:37 pm

No, that's not guessing, bobbo. However, here's my 'guess' ...
In any system with a Sun-like sun and a rocky Earth-like planet in the Goldilocks zone, there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of finding intelligent life. All the available evidence supports my position.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:41 pm

One of the great puzzles is the Fermi Paradox. If advanced life is rare, this is a complete answer to that paradox (combined with the fact that no one can travel faster than light ).

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:42 pm

Poodle wrote:No, that's not guessing, bobbo. However, here's my 'guess' ...
In any system with a Sun-like sun and a rocky Earth-like planet in the Goldilocks zone, there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of finding intelligent life. All the available evidence supports my position.


All the available evidence from a sample of one. YEAH !

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:42 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: But "guessing" is exactly how we come to understand ............. ANYTHING.

Guessing is forming a hypothesis. Testing that hypothesis is gaining of understanding.

I don't think there is anything wrong with forming lots of alternative hypotheses. It just doesn't get us very far towards understanding.

I think it is fairly complex at the moment because some of the more complex models like string theory are being knocked out or passed, based by applying more mathematics. That's probably the nature of sub-atomic physics. However, life in the universe is really going to be of an empirical evidence nature and not maths based.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:46 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:
bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote: But "guessing" is exactly how we come to understand ............. ANYTHING.

[color=#000080]Guessing is forming a hypothesis. Testing that hypothesis is gaining of understanding.

I don't think there is anything wrong with forming lots of alternative hypotheses. It just doesn't get us very far towards understanding.

..........and yet, without it, you go no where.

Silly to argue what spot on a continuum is important when the import is the entire continuum.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:46 pm

Lance Kennedy wrote:
Poodle wrote:No, that's not guessing, bobbo. However, here's my 'guess' ...
In any system with a Sun-like sun and a rocky Earth-like planet in the Goldilocks zone, there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of finding intelligent life. All the available evidence supports my position.


All the available evidence from a sample of one. YEAH !

Precisely the point, Lance. We do have only a single example.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:47 pm

There's a name for that.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:54 pm

Poodle wrote:No, that's not guessing, bobbo. However, here's my 'guess' ...
In any system with a Sun-like sun and a rocky Earth-like planet in the Goldilocks zone, there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of finding intelligent life. All the available evidence supports my position.

Is that "still" true...given our discovery/observations of identified solar systems OTHER than our own?.....Hmmm...iirc...not good enough yet to detect life. Of course, intelligent life meaning sending out radio waves probably would have been detected by now.......but not those stuck in the Reformation.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:55 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:There's a name for that.

Yep. Didn't someone recently call it the 'error of small samples'?

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Poodle » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:58 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Poodle wrote:No, that's not guessing, bobbo. However, here's my 'guess' ...
In any system with a Sun-like sun and a rocky Earth-like planet in the Goldilocks zone, there is at least a 1 in 3 chance of finding intelligent life. All the available evidence supports my position.

Is that "still" true...given our discovery/observations of identified solar systems OTHER than our own?.....Hmmm...iirc...not good enough yet to detect life. Of course, intelligent life meaning sending out radio waves probably would have been detected by now.......but not those stuck in the Reformation.

You're correct about the number of Earth-like planets in Goldilocks zones, bobbo. When we get to one of them (or receive a message from one of them) we'll have doubled our sample size.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:06 pm

Thanks Poodle: but back to the original fascinating post by Lance. Of what "significance" "SHOULD" our one example of Earth inform our best guesses as to life elsewhere in the Universe????? My paraphrasing: in the lifespan of a planet, the period of intelligent life will be quite short.

To me.........it comes down not to Earth as a single controlling example on just one or two variables, but rather what our investigation of life on Earth, and life in General, teaches us that can/should apply to the rest of the Universe as: more likely than not? Note Again: its a statistics play: "Improbable" right in the title. ................ NOT to be confused with any definite conclusion.....just: what is most likely.

......blah, blah, blah........I'm still kinda mostly drawn to that Equation for the Existence of Intelligent Live in the Universe with the last element being intelligent species not blowing themselves up with Nukes.......or some such development than seems to flow from intelligent life, and not from more basic creatures. Seems like Math to me. One group CANNOT blow themselves up, the other Group developing new ways to do it all the time. Which group is going to be around more than the other?

Seems very logical to me.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gord » Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:24 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:We don't have enough information to make an uneducated guess.

I do I do!

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby ElectricMonk » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:34 am

Life arose ridiculously early in Earth's history - and the universe itself isn't that much older than the solar system.
Whilst only a single data point, this doesn't suggest that creating life is hard.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:47 am

Life arose on Earth 3 to 4 billion years ago, and the universe 12.8 billion. That is a big time gap.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gord » Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:59 am

Well, to be fair, life on Earth required a bunch of stars to first be "born", "live" their "lives", then explode. That's how the heavier elements were formed, and we are made from goodly amounts of those heavier elements. They're necessary for our type of lifeforms.

If life could form from hydrogen and deuterium, then it could have arisen much earlier in the universe than our type of life.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:12 am

That is true, Gord, but there are star systems in our galaxy estimated to be 8 billion years old. Same generation as our sun. Meaning just as many heavy elements.

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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby ElectricMonk » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:29 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Life arose on Earth 3 to 4 billion years ago, and the universe 12.8 billion. That is a big time gap.


No it isn't, considering how old we expect the universe to get.
There haven't been many generations of stars since the big bang, probably no more than 2 population 1 type generations if that.

Life on Earth is as early as it gets, cosmically, since you need a few supernovae to create the necessary elements.
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3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gord » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:33 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:That is true, Gord, but there are star systems in our galaxy estimated to be 8 billion years old. Same generation as our sun. Meaning just as many heavy elements.

Or even 13 billion years old: https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagega ... re_76.html

I don't know which generation these stars are from. Astronomers talk about populations: Population III are theoretical, the first stars formed, which didn't last very long before using up their fuel and turning it into heavier elements; Population II are metal-poor*, but longer-lived, so there are still some in the Milky Way; and Population I, like the Sun, with more of the heavier elements.





*to an astronomer, if it isn't hydrogen or helium, it's a metal: https://briankoberlein.com/2014/04/23/h ... ium-metal/
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:39 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:Life arose on Earth 3 to 4 billion years ago, and the universe 12.8 billion. That is a big time gap.

Young Earth showed signs of life 1/2 billion years after it formed. That's a wee gap, laddie.
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Re: Advanced alien life improbable.

Postby OlegTheBatty » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:46 pm

Poodle wrote:You missed the point, bobbo, Understanding the universe is a laudable ambition. Guessing its nature is a waste of time.


That's the bailiwick of religion.
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