Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Fun with supply and demand.
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Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:45 am

I don't generally post on this topic, since I admit to being an economic moron. But this article intrigues me. It compares attempts to institute a guaranteed annual income in the US and Canada back in the 1970s. To no one's surprise, it appears the attempt was carried further in Canada and had more success than it had (or was allowed to have by the Nixon Administration) in the US.

From the abstract:
Evelyn L. Forget wrote:This paper has two purposes. First, it documents the historical context of MINCOME, a Canadian guaranteed annual income field experiment (1974 to 1979). Second, it uses routinely collected health administration data and a quasi-experimental design to document an 8.5 percent reduction in the hospitalization rate for participants relative to controls, particularly for accidents and injuries and mental health. We also found that participant contacts with physicians declined, especially for mental health, and that more adolescents continued into grade 12. We found no increase in fertility, family dissolution rates, or improved birth outcomes. We conclude that a relatively modest GAI can improve population health, suggesting significant health system savings.
And, in both the US and Canada, it appears the concept of "welfare queens" is a purely imaginary thing. In both places, there was some reduction in work effort, but a very small one. And the biggest reduction was in secondary earners, who were now enabled to stay home and take care of their children, perhaps accounting for the improved health outcomes mentioned above.
Evelyn L. Forget wrote: The randomly drawn dispersed sample, and the use of matched controls, also made it possible to isolate the effects of the GAI and to draw conclusions about causation. The main goal was to gauge work response, and therefore the disabled, the institutionalized, and the retired were excluded from the Winnipeg experiment. This is the only part of the experiment that received research attention, and ultimately the findings were very similar to the US findings: secondary and tertiary wage-earners tended to have a moderate labour market response, while primary earners showed little change in the number of hours worked in response to registration in the GAI (Hum and Simpson 1991).
Not that there is a scintilla of a chance the current power brokers in Washington will allow another experiment of this type.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:56 am

I thought a fairly large GAI was underway in one of the Scandinavian Countries?

I don't munderstand Macro Economics either, or maybe I do, and its the experts just pulling a con job.........but there are MANY advantages to GAI that as labor is made irrelevant in the Singularity...some option like that will be necessary, or we will all just turn into "furniture" for the AlreadyTooRich. The only "real" economic downside is an assault on 17th Century Calvinist theology.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by JO 753 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:44 am

Didnt know the idea wuz that old.

Probably not a coinsidens that the early 70z iz wen wen the waje growth curve flattened out wile productivity continued to rize.

There were well founded predictionz way befor that that the work week woud keep getting shorter az automation took over. But TPTB realized they coud just grab all the exess money and the pleebz woudnt mind if they coud be made to believ it didnt exist.

The bizarr thing iz that we get Rich Peepl junk shoved in our fase all the time. Lifestylez uv xu Rich & Famous. I beleev its bekuz its from the same sourse that feedz us fantasy, so subconsciously, we think it iznt real. The Kardashianz may az well be karakterz on a Gilliganz Iland spinoff.
Gubmint for us
http://www.7532020.com
not the rich.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:18 am

Not just quite Jo........I think people more so just think they will someday get that rich too. All they have to do is win the Lottery....and they will be on easy street. And, the Rich create Jobs, so don't upset them. And==here is a dollar, don't begrudge the 1000 Dollars the AlreadyTooRich get because they pay most of the taxes anyway. You know: the economy just won't work if the the poor get more or the AlreadyTooRich get less.

Gobsmacking to see it in action: every election cycle, ie: all the time. A constant stream of piss, right into your ear.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Phoenix76 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:39 am

Bobbo, you make some sense in your post. But at times I wonder if should not go back to flying jets in 'Nam. You seem to have a lot of hangups my friend. I know that I do, and I'm happy to admit it, but I don't try and inflict those hangups on others. Well I hope I don't anyway. Just a thought mate.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:41 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:I thought a fairly large GAI was underway in one of the Scandinavian Countries?

I don't munderstand Macro Economics either, or maybe I do, and its the experts just pulling a con job.........but there are MANY advantages to GAI that as labor is made irrelevant in the Singularity...some option like that will be necessary, or we will all just turn into "furniture" for the AlreadyTooRich. The only "real" economic downside is an assault on 17th Century Calvinist theology.
We understand each other then. This is likely to come about gradually, with a decreased work week. The whole civilized world is WAY ahead of the US on that one. Americans work more hours than do people in any other developed country and have fewer benefits from it in the form of paid vacation, parental leave, pensions, and medical care. All these were ideas seriously talked about, even by Republicans, half a century ago.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:28 pm

I remember the story of the German reunification:

West Germany handed something like 100-200 Marks to every former citizen of East Germany.
It didn't take long for most of it to end up back in the West.
Without schooling in how to manage money I fear that a Universal Income won't solve the problems it is supposed to fix, but it will provide an excuse to eliminate most social security nets.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:09 pm

ElectricMonk wrote: Without schooling in how to manage money I fear that a Universal Income won't solve the problems it is supposed to fix, but it will provide an excuse to eliminate most social security nets.
The problem is finding an income on which to feed, clothe, and house yourself. How could a GAI possibly not fix that? And note: it is highly stimulative as the cash is injected at the base of the economy....it will be recycled IIRC about 6-7 times whereas cash at the top gets recycles about 2-4 times. Sounds like the Germany experience was a one time payment? Not the same thing at all.

Another noted benefit: it is cheap and easy to manage, near zero fraud, works to improve family bonding...... lots of benefits.

What is the downside if you have any in mind?
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:24 pm

If not done properly, a GAI would simply increase inflation: as a landlord, I can raise rents by x/12 per months if I know my tenants get an extra x per year from the state.
This hasn't happen in the trials because there wasn't a critical mass to affect the market.
There is also the question of what to do with the people who managed to waste their income on frivolous stuff and don't have enough left to survive until the next GAI rate: we see how this works with paycheck-loans today, and it is as ugly as it gets.
It might make much more sense to simply provide the most basic forms of food, shelter and clothing free of charge, no questions asked.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:06 pm

EM: you make the case you oppose. Those with GAI HAVE THE INCOME to pay your gouging rental rates. Without it, you have to pay money for extra security services to sweep them out.

The hooman condition is ugly. Worse with no money. Keep your eyes on the central point.

If there are NO JOBS in the Robot Economy............what "should" gubment "do"?
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:38 am

The thing that controls rents is competition. More rental homes and the cost drops. How much money tenants have is much less important since they will all go for the lowest rent anyway.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:34 am

Lance: you don't understand economics at all. Supply and Demand is a two way dynamic. Way beyond your erroneous one rule for all situations Procrustean outcome.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:23 am

Yes, Bobbo. Supply and demand.
But the point is that competition rules the price war. Enough rental homes available and prices fall. Certainly you can achieve a price fall the other way. Shoot enough renters dead and the demand falls. But I would rather get the result by increasing supply.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:18 am

Lance, you can quickly increase the amount of money in people's pockets, but you can't quickly increase the number of homes, especially not in desirable locations: you might always get a cheap home with a 3-hour commute, but desirable locations have always had more demand than supply.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:08 am

EM

That is correct. But there is no instant fix when homes are scarce and rents are high.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:45 am

With a GAI, you can move to where the rents are more affordable....not caught up in a wage slave situation or tied to a lack of opportunities. PLUS.......any society RATIONAL ENOUGH to provide for GAI will come up with low income housing solutions as well. PLUS .... in any society where LABOR has become redundant, will have ROBOTS building houses virtually for free......or within the budget of the GAI.

Lance: you are so pessimistic, I can barely understand what you are posting.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:57 pm

Thanks to all of you. This is enlightening. I can't add anything to the discussion, so I'm just lurking here.
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:33 pm

UOG: you would not find the discussion enlightening unless the subject was of interest to you. Whats interesting? What do you want to know?? What stops you from thinking one thing or the other???
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Nikki Nyx » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:02 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:Not that there is a scintilla of a chance the current power brokers in Washington will allow another experiment of this type.
Sooner or later, they'll have to face the fact that the labor economy is dead. There aren't sufficient unskilled labor jobs to meet the demand, and this will worsen as automation increases.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Nikki Nyx » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:04 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Without schooling in how to manage money I fear that a Universal Income won't solve the problems it is supposed to fix, but it will provide an excuse to eliminate most social security nets.
If it's done correctly, UI will be the sole safety net required.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:11 pm

Nikki Nyx wrote:
Upton_O_Goode wrote:Not that there is a scintilla of a chance the current power brokers in Washington will allow another experiment of this type.
Sooner or later, they'll have to face the fact that the labor economy is dead. There aren't sufficient unskilled labor jobs to meet the demand, and this will worsen as automation increases.
You've put your finger on the hollowness of Trump's promise to bring manufacturing back to the US. It won't mean more jobs. It'll mean more automation. Sooner or later, as you say, either we'll have a permanent class of unemployed proles, or we'll have a European-style welfare state. Need I state my preference?
"We survivors did not seek death. We did not take to the streets when our Jewish friends were taken away. We didn’t raise an outcry until we ourselves were being annihilated. We preferred to remain alive, with the flimsy though accurate excuse that our death would not have helped. We are guilty of being alive."

Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:16 pm

GAI: NOT like the European-style welfare state.

How many differences can you list?
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:07 pm

Nikki Nyx wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote:Without schooling in how to manage money I fear that a Universal Income won't solve the problems it is supposed to fix, but it will provide an excuse to eliminate most social security nets.
If it's done correctly, UI will be the sole safety net required.
No.
There will always be people too short-sighted, unorganized, unintelligent, frail or sick to make the economic decisions necessary to procure what they need, even with a stipend from the state.
Even with a GAI, a basic security net is still necessary.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:16 pm

EM: can you rephrase that so it makes sense?.....and what percent of people do you think you are talking about?? ..... and what alternative do you propose??? GAI IS A SOCIAL SAFETY NET. Depending on what you are very specifically thinking about........I wager that on whatever basis the GAI fails, any other standard safety net would as well.

I can imagine what you are thinking of: an alzheimers patient at home with a visiting nurse. Incompetent to benefit from the GAI. I agree. But so would any other standard safety net. Home Nurse Visits is not a safety net in the same way welfare, GAI, or minimum wage laws are. Its HEALTHCARE. Same i think with any other concern you have. Note: the concern is valid..... attaching it as a failure of GAI is not.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Nikki Nyx » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:07 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Nikki Nyx wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote:Without schooling in how to manage money I fear that a Universal Income won't solve the problems it is supposed to fix, but it will provide an excuse to eliminate most social security nets.
If it's done correctly, UI will be the sole safety net required.
No.
There will always be people too short-sighted, unorganized, unintelligent, frail or sick to make the economic decisions necessary to procure what they need, even with a stipend from the state.
Even with a GAI, a basic security net is still necessary.
You have a point with which I cannot argue, EM. Some people will splurge the instant they receive their monthly stipend...then have no money for food a week later. *sigh*

Prior to food stamps being credits on a debit card, when they were still paper, some would sell their food stamps for cash to buy alcohol or drugs. Others, even now, appear to believe the supply is endless, and purchase expensive food they never would buy with cash, leaving them with nothing halfway through the month.

I'm going to say, "I'll take Education for $1,000, Alex."
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:20 pm

In an existential pragmatic viewpoint, there is nothing wrong with people CHOOSING to sell their food stamps or to waste their monthly GAI however they choose. ITS WHAT THEY WANT TO DO. Who are we to try and impose our values onto them? Note: you sell food stamps to get money to buy what you want to. If you are given a GAI, there is nothing to sell. FREEEEEEEEEEDOM is leaving other people alone and COYOTE. Let a very small percentage of people "waste" their money as they choose to do. If they get tired of that, they can then try something else. Not even worth monitoring.

Most of the objections to GAI...........are not fully thought through.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:30 pm

So bobbo, under a GAI you would let addicts and gamblers just starve to death?

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:32 pm

The point is directly addressed above. HEALTHCARE, is not the subject of GAI.

What else ya got?
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Upton_O_Goode » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:58 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:So bobbo, under a GAI you would let addicts and gamblers just starve to death?
If addiction and gambling (and prostitution) were truly victimless crimes, as one sometimes hears, I might find enough "tough love" to let them sink to their own level. But at the very least, society must intervene to protect their spouses, parents, and children.
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Karl Jaspers (1883–1968), at the re-opening of Heidelberg University, 1945

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:10 pm

UOG: Exactly right: we step in to protect people from other people: not so much from themselves. A clear and obvious line that is easy to draw that all too many don't recognize: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDOM. aka: not doing the same thing you would do.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by OlegTheBatty » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:12 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:So bobbo, under a GAI you would let addicts and gamblers just starve to death?
They don't starve now. Unemployed addicts fund their addiction via stealing, primarily shoplifting, and/or sex trade. Those that receive gov't handouts usually go through that in a few days; the rest of the month is same old same old.
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:34 am

so we agree that GAI won't have much impact on crime.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:52 am

ElectricMonk wrote:so we agree that GAI won't have much impact on crime.
The crime example given was acute drug addiction. While that is a crime.....its mostly a medical situation in reality. I would think it UNAVOIDABLE that many crimes of petty theft, B&E, assault and so forth would be reduced......if everyone had enough money to buy their marijuana and corn chips. Why go out?

I sense an underlying disapproval of GAI schemes on your part? If true...... why?
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:00 am

Disapproval of GIA.

This is because it represents a form of socialism. Anti-socialism is a kind of religious belief, and as such does not require a rational reason.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:06 am

Is that your opinion, or your guess as to EM? Ha, ha........not a bad move. Defective opinions are completely diverted.

but is that justice?????
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Lance Kennedy » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:27 am

Bobbo

You cannot contribute to this forum for too long without seeing the anti-socialism religious ideas. I am sure you have noted them also.

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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:49 am

Well Lance: I see all kinds of ideas. some people think values can be reduced to data sets. I mean: all kinds of ideas.

but the question is: what is EM basing his indirect vague negative posts on?
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ElectricMonk
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by ElectricMonk » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:30 am

GAI isn't the solution to all social and economic problems many claim it would be.
Personally, I consider the eventual introduction of some form of GAI both desirable and inevitable: wise rulers have always known that bread&games are cheaper than revolutions, and the games(plus movies, TV, etc.) have never been better.

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Gawdzilla Sama
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:41 pm

When I was in the USN sailors would get a check every two weeks. That meant they had money two days out of every month.
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OlegTheBatty
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Re: Guaranteed Annual Income Revisited

Post by OlegTheBatty » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:31 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:When I was in the USN sailors would get a check every two weeks. That meant they had money two days out of every month.
So, just like people with jobs, then. :mrgreen:
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