Supply-side Religion

Fun with supply and demand.
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Upton_O_Goode
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Supply-side Religion

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:42 am

I'm no economist, but this argument looks (to my untrained eye) very strong. (I missed it when it was first posted a couple of months ago.)

https://verdict.justia.com/2017/04/12/c ... de-miracle
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:49 am

Yeah.... its a pisser how the general public buys into this OBVIOUS crap.

Like so many things: the efficiency/benefits of a tax can be plotted on a chart like an upside down "U". Maximum benefit is the very top range. Tax too little, or tax too much...and the justification for the tax program is diminished. REDUCING taxes only works if you are too far to the right, aka: paying too much tax.....and it works by other than trickle down effects.

Tides do life all boats. But tax policy is not the tide.

Pretty simple.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:33 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Yeah.... its a pisser how the general public buys into this OBVIOUS crap.

Like so many things: the efficiency/benefits of a tax can be plotted on a chart like an upside down "U". Maximum benefit is the very top range. Tax too little, or tax too much...and the justification for the tax program is diminished. REDUCING taxes only works if you are too far to the right, aka: paying too much tax.....and it works by other than trickle down effects.

Tides do life all boats. But tax policy is not the tide.

Pretty simple.



That's precisely the missing link in the Laffer-curve argument Republicans are so fond of. Why are they so damned SURE we are on the downward-trending side of the maximum? And why is maximum government revenue the summum bonum of public policy in the first place? Is our government a business that has to show a profit? And if it is, when do we citizens get a share of the profit?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:18 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote: That's precisely the missing link in the Laffer-curve argument Republicans are so fond of. Why are they so damned SURE we are on the downward-trending side of the maximum? And why is maximum government revenue the summum bonum of public policy in the first place? Is our government a business that has to show a profit? And if it is, when do we citizens get a share of the profit?


Following your queue: Yea Verily. Too much of "Republican Thinking" follows a business, for profit, rapacious, screw the poor, mindset. Sometimes subconsciously as this instance might reflex. What tax policy should reflect is really very simple: what do we need to do, and how are we going to pay for it?

THEN....the benefit of History is: we can look at schemes in other countries or our own and determine what works and what doesn't. If 50 years ago corporations were paying twice the tax they are today....there may be no good reason to cutting their taxes again? And so on.

Many imponderables are quite clear with a little History.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Nikki Nyx » Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:25 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:I'm no economist, but this argument looks (to my untrained eye) very strong.
I agree, and thank you for posting it; it was an excellent read!

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Tides do life all boats.
True, but not helpful to those who can't afford boats. :wgrin:

Upton_O_Goode wrote:Is our government a business that has to show a profit?
This is what many people fail to understand: Government isn't business. Neither is a country's economy.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:What tax policy should reflect is really very simple: what do we need to do, and how are we going to pay for it?

THEN....the benefit of History is: we can look at schemes in other countries or our own and determine what works and what doesn't. If 50 years ago corporations were paying twice the tax they are today....there may be no good reason to cutting their taxes again? And so on.

Many imponderables are quite clear with a little History.
Logical, and I agree. It's unfortunate that the American viewpoint is that, if some other country is doing it, it must be wrong. Especially if we didn't think of it first. *smh* The Republican viewpoint is even more self-centered. After all, it was their Heritage Foundation that invented the health insurance mandate, and Romney who put it into practice in Massachusetts. But once Obama did it, they hated it.
...it used to be so simple, once upon a time.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:42 pm

The Laffer curve is pure fiction since taxes and economic growth depend on so much more than just one another: the theory is missing most relevant parameters.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:13 am

ElectricMonk wrote:The Laffer curve is pure fiction since taxes and economic growth depend on so much more than just one another: the theory is missing most relevant parameters.

I disagree that Laffer curves are pure fiction. However I totally agree with you that there are many variables and thus the most efficient equilibrium for a Laffer Curve in a specific economy is really really hard to predict.

What annoys me is that politicians don't ever refer to economic predictions anymore. The simply say reduce tax and that may be taking us further away from what is already the most efficient equilibrium and thus cause social disharmony. .

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:09 am

taxation is a second-order chaotic problem: once people are aware of it, they change their behavior in order to avoid it. Unless you have a single tax on a single kind of income, I can't see how something like the Laffer curve could ever be calculated.
But more importantly: taxes have the function of disincentivizing certain expenditures, such as taxes on alcohol, cigarettes or short-term speculation gains etc..
This doesn't fit with the idea of a Laffer Curve at all .
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:41 am

ElectricMonk wrote: This doesn't fit with the idea of a Laffer Curve at all .
I agree. An economic model starts as the most simple model there is. It then goes down hill as you try to add econometric (real world) data into the model. The only way of accurately predicting an economy would be to make a model so complex that Arrow's Impossibility theorem would destroy the ability to make sensible narrow policy changes. Therefore economists only go so far or work in "bits". :D
laffercurve.jpg
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:17 pm

What supply-side economics/tax cuts for the rich is the Trump administration proposing?

I think that Neil Buchanan is attacking a straw man, beating a dead horse.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 3760.html#!

If he wants to attack something, why not attack the monstrous military/secret police budget which is alive and well and growing?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:25 pm

Tom Palven wrote:What supply-side economics/tax cuts for the rich is the Trump administration proposing?


Currently: TrumpCare. A tax cut for the Rich dressed in drag.

Where ya been?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:49 pm

Tom Palven wrote:What supply-side economics/tax cuts for the rich is the Trump administration proposing?

I think that Neil Buchanan is attacking a straw man, beating a dead horse.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 3760.html#!

If he wants to attack something, why not attack the monstrous military/secret police budget which is alive and well and growing?


I think Democrats and all liberals need to hit hard at the very heart of the Republican idea that private industry will take care of everybody by giving everybody a good job. Private industry sells only to people who already have money. That means (to take an example) that if we simply allowed private companies to plan, get permits, and build highways where they want to, all the poor rural districts would have mud paths strewn with stones, all the poor sections of cities would have a solid line of potholes, and all the business districts and well-heeled suburbs would have smooth paved roads to drive on. And the same goes for education, health care, and everything else that should be a public right.

But hey, as we recently heard, we're doing really well with the Panama Canal. Thank goodness the government wasn't involved in building that.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:27 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote: This doesn't fit with the idea of a Laffer Curve at all .
[color=#000080]I agree.


Laffer himself put the optimum tax rate in the 65% - 70% range for the wealthy.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:43 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Matthew Ellard wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote: This doesn't fit with the idea of a Laffer Curve at all .
[color=#000080]I agree.


Laffer himself put the optimum tax rate in the 65% - 70% range for the wealthy.


Income tax? Estate tax? Consumption tax? Liquor? Cigarettes?

trying to optimize a single parameter in a complex multi-dimensional problem is pretty much useless.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:19 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:
Matthew Ellard wrote:
ElectricMonk wrote: This doesn't fit with the idea of a Laffer Curve at all .
[color=#000080]I agree.


Laffer himself put the optimum tax rate in the 65% - 70% range for the wealthy.


Income tax? Estate tax? Consumption tax? Liquor? Cigarettes?

trying to optimize a single parameter in a complex multi-dimensional problem is pretty much useless.


I agree. My point is that the proponents of low taxes conveniently like to reference Laffer while ignoring that the optimums are probably not low.

I also doubt that optimizing tax revenue is a useful goal for a society.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:12 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:I also doubt that optimizing tax revenue is a useful goal for a society.


True.
For the economy it doesn't matter all that much whether people spend the money on taxes or tax attorneys if it makes them feel better. Waste happens in every system, and it's not worth trying to fight it if doing so would cost about as much or more than the damage of the waste itself.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:59 am

OlegTheBatty wrote: I agree. My point is that the proponents of low taxes conveniently like to reference Laffer while ignoring that the optimums are probably not low.
Yep.

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:59 pm

Matthew Ellard wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote: I agree. My point is that the proponents of low taxes conveniently like to reference Laffer while ignoring that the optimums are probably not low.
Yep.


Just wondering: There must be a "Laffer curve" for each individual, i.e., some point at which a given tax rate will produce maximal tax revenue from that person. So, is the standard Laffer curve some kind of average of all these hypothetical individual Laffer curves? Kind of like Quetelet's "homme moyen," who, he thought, was the sociological equivalent of the mechanical center of mass?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:55 am

Upton_O_Goode wrote:Just wondering: There must be a "Laffer curve" for each individual, i.e., some point at which a given tax rate will produce maximal tax revenue from that person. So, is the standard Laffer curve some kind of average of all these hypothetical individual Laffer curves? Kind of like Quetelet's "homme moyen," who, he thought, was the sociological equivalent of the mechanical center of mass?


I would assume that a Laffer curve for households regarding taxation, is the average, simply because a Laffer curve can be incorporated into a normal household demand curve using the same average.

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:03 am

Since US mainstream economists claim that the US has a "consumer-driven economy" as opposed to a "supply-side" production-driven economy, here is some good news for them:
https://www.rt.com/business/398954-us-credit-card-debt/
Last edited by Tom Palven on Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:32 am

Tom Palven wrote:Since US mainstream economists claim that the US has a "consumer-driven economy" as opposed to a "supply-side" production-driven economy, here is some great news for them:
https://www.rt.com/business/398954-us-credit-card-debt/


actually, that is great news for many, because it means that interest rates have to stay low, or you will have a wave of private bankruptcies.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:56 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Tom Palven wrote:Since US mainstream economists claim that the US has a "consumer-driven economy" as opposed to a "supply-side" production-driven economy, here is some great news for them:
https://www.rt.com/business/398954-us-credit-card-debt/


actually, that is great news for many, because it means that interest rates have to stay low, or you will have a wave of private bankruptcies.


Why does this mean that interest rates have to stay low?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:22 pm

Because it makes neither economic nor political sense to let millions of consumers go bankrupt without some way to soften their fall. And Republicans won't do anything of the sort, so it will (once again) be the job of the Dems to prevent an economic collapse.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:46 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Because it makes neither economic nor political sense to let millions of consumers go bankrupt without some way to soften their fall. And Republicans won't do anything of the sort, so it will (once again) be the job of the Dems to prevent an economic collapse.


So, how are the Democrats (once again) going to prevent an economic collapse?
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:50 pm

Tom Palven wrote:So, how are the Democrats (once again) going to prevent an economic collapse?


regulating loan sharking, taxing those with actual money,


I guess your solution is to send everyone to the Poor House?
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:02 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Because it makes neither economic nor political sense to let millions of consumers go bankrupt without some way to soften their fall. And Republicans won't do anything of the sort, so it will (once again) be the job of the Dems to prevent an economic collapse.

Interest rates are not set by the government.

Raising interest rates does make fiscal sense if the revenue generated by the increase is greater than the loss due to the bankruptcies. Be that as it may, credit card interest rates are not dependant on the Fed's prime rate.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:13 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:
Tom Palven wrote:So, how are the Democrats (once again) going to prevent an economic collapse?


regulating loan sharking, taxing those with actual money,


I guess your solution is to send everyone to the Poor House?


Yes. How very perceptive of you.
Last edited by Tom Palven on Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:15 pm

The Fed, unlike many other central banks, is supposed to guard not only against inflation, but also the labor market.
Massive loss of purchasing power wouldn't be conductive for that.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:25 pm

The Fed doesn't look at it from the perspective of the working grunt. They look at it from the perspective of the banking industry. They will keep the rates low as long as the current liquidity trap persists, because their economic models say that's what to do. It doesn't actually matter if the models work or not.

If the Fed thinks the trap is over, they may well raise the prime rate. However, that doesn't affect credit card rates, as those are determined by market forces, greed, government regulations that set maximums, etc.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:26 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:The Fed, unlike many other central banks, is supposed to guard not only against inflation, but also the labor market.
Massive loss of purchasing power wouldn't be conductive for that.


...and fortunately the Democrats (who control no branches of government) will save us (yet again). Thank you in advance, Democrats.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:42 pm

Tom, how are the GOP tax cuts going to help, exactly?
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:13 pm

ElectricMonk wrote:Tom, how are the GOP tax cuts going to help, exactly?


I think that involuntary taxation is theft, a violation of the Golden Rule, however my loathing of Democrat politicians is exceeded only by my loathing of Republican politicians to he extent that I would find it hard to endorse anything they do, and, quite frankly I don't care whether tax cuts would help the US economy. The sooner the US goes virtually bankrupt, the sooner the world will be a better, safer, place. (Technically the US can't go bankrupt because, like Zimbabwe, the government can just keep printing money to pay its debts.)

Like quantitative easing in Zimbabwe:
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=zi ... ORM=HDRSC2
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:55 pm

Tom Palven wrote:I think that involuntary taxation is theft
So when travelling overseas, do you voluntarily donate tax to various foreign governments for the use of their roads, sewerage, water, customs services and so on? If you don't........aren't you a thief?

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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Tom Palven » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:59 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
Tom Palven wrote:I think that involuntary taxation is theft
So when travelling overseas, do you voluntarily donate tax to various foreign governments for the use of their roads, sewerage, water, customs services and so on? If you don't........aren't you a thief?


Yes, I do. I try to buy as much of the beautiful paintings and hand-crafted gifts that I can carry, even in the Basque part of Spain where the tapas and the people are wonderful, but the tolls on the roads every 1,000 meters or so are oppressive.

And as I've probably said before, I loved the Aussies, the Blue Mountains, snorkeling off Cairns, and the sexual relations my second wife and I had with Aussies when we visited there on our honeymoon.
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby Matthew Ellard » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:59 am

Tom Palven wrote:I think that involuntary taxation is theft
Matthew Ellard wrote: So when travelling overseas, do you voluntarily donate tax to various foreign governments for the use of their roads, sewerage, water, customs services and so on? If you don't........aren't you a thief?
Tom Palven wrote:Yes, I do. I try to buy as much of the beautiful paintings and hand-crafted gifts that I can carry,
I see. You are a capitalist. :D

On a more serious note, I don't think we can eradicate human psychology and therefore I cannot see any political system where taxation is voluntary. Capitalism does work on psychological greed and reducing taxation is essentially the same behaviour in any political system.

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ElectricMonk
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Re: Supply-side Religion

Postby ElectricMonk » Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:24 am

If you don't want to pay taxes, move to a country that doesn't raise them.
I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:
Spoiler:
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
- Douglas Adams


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