Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

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Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:10 pm

Will Advances in Groundwater Science Force a Paradigm Shift in Sea Level Rise Attribution

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In a 2002 paper, what is frequently referred to as “Munk’s enigma”, Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s senior researcher bemoaned the fact researchers could not fully account for the causes of sea level rise. He lamented, “the historic rise started too early, has too linear a trend, and is too large.” Early IPCC analyses noted about 25% of estimated sea level rise was unaccounted for. Accordingly, in 2012, an international team of prominent sea level researchers published, Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? (henceforth Gregory 2012). They hoped to balance struggling sea level budgets by re-analyzing and adjusting estimates of the contributions from melting glaciers and ice caps, thermal expansion, and the effects of dam building and groundwater extraction. However, a natural contribution from any imbalance in groundwater re-charge vs discharge was never considered. Yet the volume of freshwater stored as groundwater, is second only to Antarctica’s frozen supply, and 3 to 8 times greater than Greenland’s.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:18 pm

We need to add in monkey piss too.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:50 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:We need to add in monkey piss too.
Damn Gawdzilla, you always insert such thoughtful and scientific analyses. You always demonstrate the great intellectual thinking that powers climate alarmist thinking.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by ElectricMonk » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:43 am

Another goalpost moved...

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Major Malfunction » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:18 am

So... Sea level is rising faster than some previous estimates?
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:43 am

continued
At the risk of oversimplifying, the effects of groundwater storage can be differentiated between shallow-aquifer effects that modulate global sea level on year to year and decade to decade timeframes, versus deep aquifer effects that modulate sea level trends over centuries and millennia.

Researchers are increasingly aware of natural shallow groundwater dynamics. As noted by Reager (2016) in A Decade of Sea Level Rise Slowed by Climate-Driven Hydrology, researchers had determined the seasonal delay in the return of precipitation to the oceans causes sea levels to oscillate by 17 ± 4 mm [~0.7 inches] per year. Reager (2016) also argued decadal increases in terrestrial water storage driven by climate events such as La Nina, had reduced sea level rise by 0.71 mm/year. Likewise, Cazenave 2014 had published according to altimetry data, sea level had decelerated from 3.5 mm/yr in the 1990s to 2.5mm/yr during 2003-2011, and that deceleration could be explained by increased terrestrial water storage, and the pause in ocean warming reported by Argo data.

Improved observational data suggest during more frequent La Nina years a greater proportion of precipitation falls on the land globally and when routed through more slowly discharging aquifers, sea level rise decelerates. During periods of more frequent El Niños, more rain falls back onto the oceans, and sea level rise accelerates. In contrast to La Nina induced shallow-aquifer effects, deep aquifers have been filled with meltwater from the last Ice Age, and that water is slowly and steadily seeping back into the oceans today.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Major Malfunction » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:35 am

If you take the water out of the ground, shouldn't that make the land float more?
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by TJrandom » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:31 am

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:We need to add in monkey piss too.
Naw - Jim-there-can`t-be-manmade-climate-change-cause-I-have-built-a-career-on-denial-Steele has already pissed and thus it is accounted for. :nyanya:

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:34 pm

TJrandom wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:We need to add in monkey piss too.
Naw - Jim-there-can`t-be-manmade-climate-change-cause-I-have-built-a-career-on-denial-Steele has already pissed and thus it is accounted for. :nyanya:
Another "brilliant" discussion of the evidence by TJ.

In your blind alarmism you apparently failed to read the essay. NO WHERE did the essay state, nor have I ever stated, that manmade climate change CANNOT happen. Locally we affect local climate by landscape changes and hydrology disruption. To understand the degree of any manmade climate change, we MUST fully understand natural climate change. Yet in doing so, alarmists are always threatened, suggesting they are simply clinging to blind beliefs.

What good scientists do for EVERY issue is offer alternative explanations, so that in the courtroom of scientific debate we get closer to the truth. The scientific debate is adversarial, but should be professional.

Obviously there are no scientists here other than me. Instead of evidence based debate, we get trolls hurling insults and pissing on any meaningful discussion
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Major Malfunction » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:10 pm

So the rain, which mainly evaporates from the sea, and falls on the sea, increases sea level rise?

I know what the paper is trying to say. Rain that evaporates from the sea and falls on the land gets soaked up like a sponge and has a slower return to the water cycle. It could be tens of thousands of years if it makes its way into deep aquifers.

But the paper is poorly written, and as the first guy laments, there's just no way for us to account for it, since the time span is just too long, and we just don't have enough data.

So untwist yer knickers. Have a drink and piss on a lemon tree instead of in the ocean, and be content you've done your bit to reduce sea level rise.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:12 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:If you take the water out of the ground, shouldn't that make the land float more?
No, the land isn't a boat, it's a series of tubes. If you take out the water, the land will sink, like the opposite of putting too much air in a balloon!
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:52 pm

Major Malfunction wrote:If you take the water out of the ground, shouldn't that make the land float more?
Maybe!

As water moves from the land to the oceans, the geodesic researchers estimate that under the weight of the added water the volume of the ocean basins are deepening at a rate of 0.3 mm/year. So most global sea level rise estimates add 0.3 mm to sea level rise.

Sea level in places like Scandinavia is falling, primarily because the land is still rising after the release from ice age glaciers as seen at Oslo Norway

Image

Elsewhere, such as the east coast of the USA, the more southerly fore bulge created in response to the weight of more northerly continental glaciers, is now sinking causing sea level to rise.

In addition to those glacial isostatic changes, at the local and regional levels, groundwater extraction and/or altered hydrology causes the land to subside where the ground is mostly sediments. Where water maintained pore spaces, groundwater depletion allows the sediments to compress and sink, causing local relative sea level to rise as observed by tide gauges. Areas surrounding Houston, have sunk by as much 8 to 10 feet due to land subsidence.

Sea level trends cannot never be blamed on just one factor, and must be scrutinized for various impacts. Scientists are indeed trying to take more factors into account. With the advent of GPS systems we are better able to determine if the land is rising or sinking. Calculating the volumes of dams allows us to take into account manmade water storage, while calculating well pumping allow us to estimate groundwater depletion.

However as discussed in this essay the effects of natural groundwater recharge and discharge are just recently being explored, and our knowledge is incomplete.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by TJrandom » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:12 pm

Jim Steele wrote:
TJrandom wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:We need to add in monkey piss too.
Naw - Jim-there-can`t-be-manmade-climate-change-cause-I-have-built-a-career-on-denial-Steele has already pissed and thus it is accounted for. :nyanya:
Another "brilliant" discussion of the evidence by TJ.
Says Jim-no-species-has-been-harmed-by-AGW-except those-which-became-extinct-except-they-don`t-qualify-for-`harm`-since-they-were-a-dead-end-species-Steele.

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:17 pm

Comeback and try to have a professional adult discussion TJ when YOU are able to provide any meaningful evidence for a species that has been driven to extinction by changing climate since the end of the Little Ice Age.

There are only empty claims.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by TJrandom » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:22 pm

Jim Steele wrote:Comeback and try to have a professional adult discussion TJ when YOU are able to provide any meaningful evidence for a species that has been driven to extinction by changing climate since the end of the Little Ice Age.

There are only empty claims.
Says Jim-self-pardoning-and-unable-to-define-harm-Steele.

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:11 am

TJrandom wrote:
Jim Steele wrote:Comeback and try to have a professional adult discussion TJ when YOU are able to provide any meaningful evidence for a species that has been driven to extinction by changing climate since the end of the Little Ice Age.

There are only empty claims.
Says Jim-self-pardoning-and-unable-to-define-harm-Steele.
Oh, just say Bramble Cay melomys to him and let him carry on. :P
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:19 am

Just provide the evidence for the outrageously stupid claim the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to rising CO2.

Alarmist simply stitch together a coincidence in time. The Bramble Cay melomys disappeared therefore the only possible explanation is rising CO2 Alarmists are so easily led.

ROTFLMAO!
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by TJrandom » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:10 am

Jim Steele wrote:Just provide the evidence for the outrageously stupid claim the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to rising CO2.

Alarmist simply stitch together a coincidence in time. The Bramble Cay melomys disappeared therefore the only possible explanation is rising CO2 Alarmists are so easily led.

ROTFLMAO!
You do that a lot don`t you - must be a defect... hit your head as a child did ya? You missed your chance to address those... what was it... Oh dead-end critters, way back there in that other thread where it was discussed, at least as far as ascertaining that you wouldn`t know harm from what... Oh yes - extinction.

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:15 am

TJ you are getting creepy, so I am gonna move on and keep on topic
Munk’s “Too Linear Trend” Enigma and Deep Groundwater Discharge

Hydrologists concerned with sustainable groundwater supplies and drinking water contamination, have been in the forefront of analyzing the volume and ages of the world’s groundwater, providing greater insight into deep aquifer effects. Gleeson (2015) determined, “total groundwater volume in the upper 2 km of continental crust is approximately 22.6 million cubic kilometers, twice as much as earlier estimates. If all 22.6 million cubic kilometers of freshwater stored underground reached the oceans, sea level would rise 204 feet (62,430 millimeters). Via various isotope analyses and flow models, Jasechko (2017) estimated that between 42-85% of all groundwater stored in the upper 1 kilometer of the earth’s crust is water that had infiltrated the ground more than 11,000 years ago, during last Ice Age.

Clearly the earth’s groundwater has yet to reach an equilibrium with modern sea levels. With deep aquifer discharge primarily regulated by geological pore spaces (in addition to pressure heads), the slow and steady discharge of these older waters affects sea level rise on century and millennial timeframes. And, although freshwater discharge from deep aquifers may be locally insignificant relative to river runoff, deep aquifer discharge when integrated across the globe could account for the missing contribution to the sea level rise budgets.

Unfortunately quantifying the groundwater discharge contribution to sea level rise is extremely difficult, suffering from a low signal to noise problem. That difficulty is why natural groundwater contributions are often ignored or brushed aside as insignificant. Although GRACE satellite monitoring of gravity changes offers great promise for detecting changes in terrestrial groundwater storage, GRACE cannot accurately separate the relatively small discharge of deep aquifers from large annual changes in shallow groundwater. In periods of heavy rains, groundwater increases will mask deep aquifer discharge. And during a drought, any deep groundwater discharge will likely be attributed to the lack of rain.

However, estimates of groundwater re-charge via isotope analyses can provide critical information regards rates of groundwater re-charge and discharge.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:36 pm

TJrandom wrote:
Jim Steele wrote:Just provide the evidence for the outrageously stupid claim the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to rising CO2.

Alarmist simply stitch together a coincidence in time. The Bramble Cay melomys disappeared therefore the only possible explanation is rising CO2 Alarmists are so easily led.

ROTFLMAO!
You do that a lot don`t you - must be a defect....
See, that's been his problem since the beginning. He talks about having "a professional adult discussion", but then, as usual, he immediately starts name-calling.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:34 pm

Gord wrote: You do that a lot don`t you - must be a defect....
See, that's been his problem since the beginning. He talks about having "a professional adult discussion", but then, as usual, he immediately starts name-calling.[/quote]

Certainly Good you must be talking about TJ, who has done nothing but name calling on this post of about sea level and groundwater.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by scrmbldggs » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:46 pm

You're offended by "Bramble Cay melomys "? ...Good!
.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:08 pm

He's offended by dead rats? What, were they close relatives?

Here's an article about them (the cute little rats, I mean): http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/ ... ay-melomys
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:04 pm

Gord wrote:He's offended by dead rats? What, were they close relatives?

Here's an article about them (the cute little rats, I mean): http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/ ... ay-melomys
Gord you demonstrate your dishonest 2-face personality, and as TJ did, it is you that engages in name-calling.

Furthermore as I stated in earlier posts, claims that the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to CO2 are unsupported and examples of stupid unsupported alarmism.

As I stated earlier when Bobbo first pushed the Bramble Cay melomys extirpation and TJ glommed on to it to avoid dealing with his failure to engage in a sincere coral debate that he requested.

1) The Bramble Cay melomys is a shipwrecked population that floated onto this small cay from locations unknown. The cay's extirpation can not be extrapolated into an extinction for the entire species when no one knows from where that population must have originated.

2) The extremely small coral cay is subjected to shifting shifting sands and dimensions. Its unstable land surface hosts a extremely depauperate vegetation that can be removed after typical regional storms as the sands rearrange. The los of 95% of the vegetation is not unusual for such cays.

3) The cay's extremely low elevation guarantees that any storm passing directly over the cay will inundate the entire cay, change the dimensions of the cay, and alter its vegetation. Again this is typical behavior for every tropical cay

4) A view of past storms show that a direct hit from a passing storm should be expected once a century, whether or not there is any climate change contribution.

5) Local fisherman/hunters whose diet includes rats, bring their dogs and families to the island where they also hunt turtles and birds. Their dogs also attack and eat rats (i.e. Bramble Cay melomys ). As for most island population declines, the cause of extirpation is virtually always the import of invasive or competing species and disease.

6) Regional observations that local sea level rose by 6mm a year between 1993 and 2010, is not evidence of CO2 induced climate change. Global sea level had only changed by 1.0 to 1.9 mm/hear for the 20th century. CO2 did not theoretically warm the earth enough until after 1950. The steady rise in 20th century global sea level is most likely due to natural effects. Suggestions of 6 mm rise means that the much greater change in sea level is a local event. Since 2010 sea level has fallen!


7) To repeat, any claim that rising CO2 caused the shipwrecked population to be extirpated is pure speculation. To repeat, the only so-called "evidence" to attribute extirpation to rising CO2 is that the population disappeared recently.Thus blaming CO2 is not scientific and stupid!
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lausten » Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:32 am

Jim Steele wrote:Just provide the evidence for the outrageously stupid claim the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to rising CO2.

Alarmist simply stitch together a coincidence in time. The Bramble Cay melomys disappeared therefore the only possible explanation is rising CO2 Alarmists are so easily led.

ROTFLMAO!
Evidence
Jim Steele wrote:Regional observations that local sea level rose by 6mm a year between 1993 and 2010, is not evidence of CO2 induced climate change. Global sea level had only changed by 1.0 to 1.9 mm/hear for the 20th century.
Aren't you the guy who said averages are a chimera?
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:05 am

Lausten wrote:
Jim Steele wrote:Just provide the evidence for the outrageously stupid claim the Bramble Cay melomys went extinct due to rising CO2.

Alarmist simply stitch together a coincidence in time. The Bramble Cay melomys disappeared therefore the only possible explanation is rising CO2 Alarmists are so easily led.

ROTFLMAO!
Evidence
Jim Steele wrote:Regional observations that local sea level rose by 6mm a year between 1993 and 2010, is not evidence of CO2 induced climate change. Global sea level had only changed by 1.0 to 1.9 mm/hear for the 20th century.
Aren't you the guy who said averages are a chimera?
Lausten Just once instead of mindlessly creating a link, try putting the evidence into your own words and then provide your arguments that support a climate change interpretation for the extirpation of the Bramble Cay melomys.

The evidence in your link could easily be used to show a meaningless connection to climate change!
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Tue Mar 06, 2018 5:08 am

Lausten wrote: Aren't you the guy who said averages are a chimera?
To be accurate, I said averages can be a chimera of different things. To be meaningful averages must sample the same "population".

So what's your point?

Are you asking what a chimera is?
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lausten » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:51 am

Jim Steele wrote:
Lausten wrote: Aren't you the guy who said averages are a chimera?
To be accurate, I said averages can be a chimera of different things. To be meaningful averages must sample the same "population".

So what's your point?

Are you asking what a chimera is?
No, I'm pointing out how you use your convoluted arguments any way they suit you. If an average works in your favor, you use it, if it doesn't, you make a long explanation about how averages don't mean anything.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lausten » Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:53 am

Jim Steele wrote:
Lausten wrote:
Jim Steele wrote: The evidence in your link could easily be used to show a meaningless connection to climate change!
Sure, if you're someone who takes data and twists it to mean whatever they want, yeah, you could show that.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:05 am

Lausten wrote:Sure, if you're someone who takes data and twists it to mean whatever they want, yeah, you could show that.
Not JIm! :wink: JIm would never say one thing and do another!
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:27 am

More personal attacks and no science from Gord and Lausten.

Indeed somethings never change.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lausten » Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:31 pm

Jim Steele wrote:More personal attacks and no science from Gord and Lausten.

Indeed somethings never change.
More personal attacks from Jim about how all anyone ever does is attack him personally. Change indeed never does.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:49 pm

Lausten wrote:
Jim Steele wrote:More personal attacks and no science from Gord and Lausten.

Indeed somethings never change.
More personal attacks from Jim about how all anyone ever does is attack him personally. Change indeed never does.
Flashbacks from 3rd grade arguments.

An essay on groundwater and sea level has become an opportunity for alarmists to engage in "I know you are but what am I " debates.

ROTFLMAO
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:52 pm

for those interested in the scientific debates , the essay continues
Using the abnormal levels of tritium released during nuclear testing in the 1950s, plus carbon14 dating, researchers have categorized the time since groundwater had last left the surface into 25, 50, 75 and 100-year old age classes. As expected, the youngest water is concentrated in the shallowest aquifer layers and the proportion of young water decreases with depth. The estimated volume of 25-year-old or younger groundwater suggests global groundwater is currently recharging at a rate that would reduce sea level by 21 mm/year (0.8 inches/year). Water cycle researchers (i.e. Dai and Trenberth) have made the dubious assumption that the amount of water transported via precipitation to the land from the ocean is balanced each year by river runoff. But if the tritium derived estimates are valid, balancing water cycle and sea level budgets becomes more enigmatic. Clearly a significant amount of precipitation does not return for decades and centuries.

Intriguingly, comparing the smaller volume of ground water aged 50 to 100-years-old versus the volume of water 50-years-old and younger suggests 2 possible scenarios. Either ground water recharge has increased in recent decades, or if recharge rates averaged over 50 years have remained steady, then as groundwater ages a significant portion seeps back to the ocean at rates approaching 1.7 mm/year, a rate that is very similar to 20th century IPCC estimates of sea level rise.

Groundwater discharge must balance recharge or else it directly alters global sea levels. When less than 21 mm/year seeps back to the ocean, then natural groundwater storage lowers sea level. When discharge is greater than 21 mm/year, then groundwater discharge is raising sea level. Without accounting for recharge vs discharge, the much smaller estimates of all the other factors contributing to sea level rise are simply not well constrained.

Higher rates of discharge could account for the enigmatic missing sea level contributions reported by the IPCC and other researchers (i.e. Gregory 2012). More problematic, if discharge proves to significantly exceed recharge, then estimates of contributions from other sources such as melting ice and thermal expansion may be too high. What is certain, the current estimates of contributions to sea level from melting ice and thermal expansion only range from 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year, and those factors by themselves cannot offset the tritium estimated 21 mm/year of groundwater recharge. So, what is missing in our current water cycle budgets?
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual." Galileo

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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Gord » Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:50 am

Lausten wrote:
JIm Steele wrote:More personal attacks and no science from Gord and Lausten.

Indeed somethings never change.
More personal attacks from Jim about how all anyone ever does is attack him personally. Change indeed never does.
I keep pointing that out. It's his real reason for posting here.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"Imagine an ennobling of what could be" -- the New Age BS Generator site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:08 am

Make my day Lausten and Good!

Say something scientific for once.

Until then here's some real science for you to cogitate on if the science is not too deep.

The Importance of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD)

The recharge-discharge imbalance can be reconciled if water cycle budgets included the difficult-to-measure rates of prolific submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). Freshwater springs bubbling up from coastal sea floors have long been observed. To reliably replenish drinking water, Roman fisherman mapped their occurrences throughout the Mediterranean. Moosdorf (2017) has reviewed the locations and many human uses of fresh submarine groundwater discharge around the world.

Recent ecological studies have measured local submarine groundwater seepages to determine contributions of solutes and nutrients to coastal ecosystems. But those sparse SGD measurements cannot yet be reliably integrated into a global estimate. Rodell (2015) notes that most water cycle budgets have ignored SGD due to its uncertainty, so Rodell’s water cycle budget included a rate of SGD equivalent to 6.5 millimeters/year (~0.25 inch/yr) of sea level rise. However, that estimate is still insufficient to balance current recharge estimates.

However, with improving techniques, researchers recently estimated total submarine groundwater (saline and fresh water combined) discharges suggesting a rate 3 to 4 times greater than the observed global river runoff, or a volume equivalent to 331 mm/year (13 inches) of sea level rise. Nonetheless more than 90% of that submarine discharge is saline sea water, most of which is likely recirculated sea water, and not likely to affect sea level. Only the fraction of entrained freshwater would raise sea level. To balance the 21 mm/year ground water recharge, between 6 and 7% of total SGD must be freshwater and that amount is very likely. Local estimates of the freshwater fraction of submarine discharge range from 1 to 35%, and on average just less than 10%. If fresh submarine groundwater discharge approaches just 7% of the total SGD, it would not only balance current groundwater recharge, but would steadily raise sea level by an additional 2 mm/year, even if there was no ocean warming and no melting glaciers.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lausten » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:44 pm

There's nothing in this report that says global warming isn't happening. And you're missing the latest.

http://environment.harvard.edu/news/fac ... stic-earth
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:54 pm

Lausten wrote:There's nothing in this report that says global warming isn't happening. And you're missing the latest.

http://environment.harvard.edu/news/fac ... stic-earth
It is gratifying Lausten that you are engaging in more critical thinking and investigating of the sea level issue.

The article you link to is a good one, but you need to elaborate on your concerns. You tend to "link and run" so there is no real debate nor any understanding of what you are getting snarky about.

For instance I don't know why you would say I am "missing the latest". I am very well aware of Mitrovica's work and the article you linked to is from 2016. So what is your point specifically???

From the article
Walter Munk, a renowned professor emeritus at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, argued that if all the land-based ice that has supposedly been melting for the last century really has been melting, the water that was released from polar regions should have flowed toward lower latitudes and the equator—and this redistribution of mass should have slowed the rotation of the earth (much as spinning skaters slow as they extend their arms).

But modern satellite observations suggested that the earth’s spin has not slowed as much as forecast. Although Munk wasn’t questioning estimates of sea-level rise per se, his enigma posed a serious challenge to earth scientists involved in studies of global warming
Another explanation for why the earth's spin has not slowed, is that melting of polar ice caps is not happening. There are several studies suggesting the ice caps could be gaining ice because increased water vapor allows more snow and ice to fall on those ice caps.

Groundwater discharge from all around the globe could raise sea level with out affecting the earth's spin. The article here is on groundwater, and the debate about its effect on sea level. It would be too much to discuss the physics of the earth's spin as well and would have only added a layer of complexity that would be confusing to the laypeople.

Your linked article continued
Mitrovica and his colleagues realized that a very important process had been left out of this analysis. Magnetic coupling between the earth’s iron core and its rocky mantle has also been causing the rotation of the crust to slow. When Mitrovica’s team included this braking effect, the numbers no longer worked. They realized that the ice-age model scientists had been using in their calculations had been inaccurate.
And my article agrees "the ice-age model scientists had been using in their calculations had been inaccurate". My article simply says neglecting groundwater effects and transport have not been accurately accounted for. And as research Improves we will get a better picture of sea level attribution.

Lastly Mitrovica and his colleagues argued sea level rise during the 20th century was much lower than climate scientists had suggested, as low as 1 mm/yr vs 1.7 or 1.9. Altimetry data suggested that sea level accelerated to 3.1 in the 90s. But "the latest" suggests problems with the altimetry and that sea level only accelerated to 2.4 mm/yr. Furthermore much of those estimates depend on which GIA adjustment is used. In addition, IPCC has published sea level rise has periodically accelerated over the 20th century so there are still reasons to question what has caused sea level rise. And my analyses of groundwater is simply contributing to our understanding of what drives sea level
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Jim Steele » Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:44 pm

If the recent estimates of submarine groundwater didn't make you think, then consider the next sections
A Sea Level Rise “Base-flow” and Paleo-climate Conundrums
Hydrologists seek to quantify the aquifer contributions to river flow, otherwise known as the “base flow”. During the rainy season or the season of melting snow, any groundwater contribution is masked by heavy surface runoff and shallow aquifer effects. However, during extended periods of drought hydrologists assume the low river flow that persists must be largely attributed to supplies from deeper aquifers. Streams that dry up during a drought are usually supported by small shallow aquifers, while reduced but persistent river and stream flows must be maintained by large aquifers. Using a similar conceptual approach, we can estimate a possible “base flow” contribution to sea level.

When the continental ice sheets began to melt as the earth transitioned from its Ice Age maximum to our present warm interglacial, sea level began to rise from depths ~130 meters lower than today (see graph below). Melting continental ice sheets drove much higher rates of sea level rise than seen today, ranging from 10 to 40+ mm/year. Approximately 6,000 years ago, a consensus suggests the last of the continental ice sheets had melted completely, the earth’s montane glaciers had disappeared, and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets had shrunk to their minimums. The earth then entered a long-term 5000-year cooling trend dubbed the Neoglaciation. Although sea level models forced only by growing glaciers and cooling ocean temperatures would project falling sea levels, proxy evidence enigmatically suggests global sea level continued to rise. Albeit at reduced rates, global sea level continued to rise another 4 meters (Figure 1 below). Although there is some debate regards any continued contribution from Antarctica and “ocean siphoning”, according to Lambeck 2014 about 3 meters of sea level were added between 6.7–4.2 thousand years ago. That continued sea level rise could be explained by aquifer discharge, suggesting a minimal “base flow” of ~1.2 mm/year from groundwater discharge.
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Re: Ancient Groundwater Discharge Explains Steady Sea Level Rise

Post by Lance Kennedy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:15 am

My biggest quibble with Jim is his insistence that reasoning and logic can lead to the truth. In fact, logic is merely a tool used by scientists, much as a microscope is a tool. It is not the foundation of science. That is empiricism, as described by Francis Bacon. Logic is a perfect method of making mistakes with confidence, as Jim does.

Jim backs up his philosophy with a signature quoting Galileo. However, Galileo, albeit a genius, did make mistakes. For example he denied Kepler's finding that orbits around the sun were ellipses, because Galileo, according to the superstition of his time, thought the circle was the "perfect shape ", and therefore orbits had to be circular. He also denied Tycho Brahe's finding that comets orbited the sun. Galileo said they were in the atmosphere and travelled in a straight line.

I am not denigrating Galileo, who was a genuine genius. Just pointing out that he was a man of his time and therefore prone to the superstitions of his time. One such superstition was the belief that logic and reasoning could explain everything. It cannot, but Jim seems to think it can.

On global warming, forget the idiotic reasoning. The empirical evidence is clear. The world is warming. It is doing so in a way that is consistent with greenhouse gas increase (as 97% of climate scientists agree), and sea levels are rising at a rate too high for such rationalisation as groundwater bleed.