Birth of a storm in the Arabian Sea validates climate model

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Birth of a storm in the Arabian Sea validates climate model

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:14 pm

Birth of a storm in the Arabian Sea validates climate model
Date: December 6, 2017
Source: Princeton University
Summary: Extreme cyclones that formed in the Arabian Sea for the first time in 2014 are the result of global warming and will likely increase in frequency, warn scientists. Their model showed that the burning of fossil fuels since 1860 would lead to an increase in the destructive storms in the Arabian Sea by 2015, marking one of the first times that modeled projections have synchronized with real observations of storm activity.

Credit: NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response
Researchers from Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report in the journal Nature Climate Change that extreme cyclones that formed in the Arabian Sea for the first time in 2014 are the result of global warming and will likely increase in frequency. Their model showed that the burning of fossil fuels since 1860 would lead to an increase in the destructive storms in the Arabian Sea by 2015, marking one of the first times that modeled projections have synchronized with real observations of storm activity, the researchers said.

In October 2014, Cyclone Nilofar formed off the western coast of India. The unusual system was the first extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) -- defined by wind speeds greater than 102 miles per hour -- on record to appear in the Arabian Sea after South Asia's monsoon season. Cyclones commonly develop in the Arabian Sea after the monsoon season, but none as ferocious as Nilofar, which produced winds of up 130 miles per hour and led to the evacuation of 30,000 people in India.

Then, in 2015, two even stronger extreme cyclones rolled in off the Arabian Sea -- in one week. From Oct. 28 to Nov. 4, Cyclone Chapala -- the second strongest cyclone ever recorded on the Arabian Sea -- brought winds of up to 150 miles per hour and dumped the equivalent of several years' worth of rain on the arid nations of Yemen, Oman and Somalia. Cyclone Megh unleased a second wave of destruction only a few days later. The storms killed 27 people and devastated the already fragile economies and infrastructures of the affected nations. The Yemeni island of Socotra was destroyed by flooding and wind damage.


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