Why Germany couldn't have won the war

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:14 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote: I can’t think of a single reason why Stalin would trade those tanks to the Germans.

Amusing: you answered your own question.



OK. Go blow it out of your pie hole.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:22 pm

You aren't very good at insult humor. Thats amusing too. Better stick with just thinking you are an expert.

//// You post in a malapropism of what a pie hole is. Amusing...you are on a roll.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:32 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:You aren't very good at insult humor. Thats amusing too. Better stick with just thinking you are an expert.

//// You post in a malapropism of what a pie hole is. Amusing...you are on a roll.


When someone is worth insulting I put some real time in it.

You are not. Go blow it out your pie hole.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:37 pm

Weak. Just Look. Say: why not put your off topic ab hominems where you won't be wasting everyone's time with your inept efforts? You know where it is: viewtopic.php?f=39&t=29464

Seriously: if you can't do a better job, why bother? give it up and stick to the substance. Obviously, you should give this thread more attention before posting. Think of the Kiddies.

What is in demonstration is: The Rule of Equal Dignity. You show me some, I will return the same. Likewise the insults. but no....never the puerile unimaginative dull witted responses so on display here. That gets you No Balls, its why we have the Inbred Thread.

Choose what you put out there, its what comes back.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:01 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:Weak. Just Look. Say: why not put your off topic ab hominems where you won't be wasting everyone's time with your inept efforts? You know where it is: viewtopic.php?f=39&t=29464

Seriously: if you can't do a better job, why bother? give it up and stick to the substance. Obviously, you should give this thread more attention before posting. Think of the Kiddies.

What is in demonstration is: The Rule of Equal Dignity. You show me some, I will return the same. Likewise the insults. but no....never the puerile unimaginative dull witted responses so on display here. That gets you No Balls, its why we have the Inbred Thread.

Choose what you put out there, its what comes back.



Go blow it out of your pie hole.
A joke going around Moscow during The Great Terror:

The NKVD knocks on a door.
The inhabitants ask who it is.
“NKVD.”
“You’ve got the wrong apartment. The Communists are upstairs.”

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:10 pm

the idiom is "Shut your pie hole." or "Blow it out your ass hole."

When you post not knowing the difference between either end........people notice. Being proud of it, only compounds the error. You don't think I am the only one reading this thread do you? and ..... have a care for yourself: older and wiser. Looking at .........well, just look.

But again: rather than pollute this thread with your off topic druthers: post your nonsense at viewtopic.php?f=39&t=29464 Do the forum a favor.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:19 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:the idiom is "Shut your pie hole." or "Blow it out your ass hole."

When you post not knowing the difference between either end........people notice. Being proud of it, only compounds the error. You don't think I am the only one reading this thread do you? and ..... have a care for yourself: older and wiser. Looking at .........well, just look.

But again: rather than pollute this thread with your off topic druthers: post your nonsense at viewtopic.php?f=39&t=29464 Do the forum a favor.



Go blow it out your pie hole.
A joke going around Moscow during The Great Terror:

The NKVD knocks on a door.
The inhabitants ask who it is.
“NKVD.”
“You’ve got the wrong apartment. The Communists are upstairs.”

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:25 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:Jeffk:
Actually if the USSR attacked Germany it would have ended in disaster. Stalin gutted the officer corps during the Great Purge. The Red Army got much better real quick (there’s nothing like incentive) but if Stalin attempted such a thing in 1941 or 1942 against the German Army they would’ve handed him his ass. It took a good two years under extreme pressure to get the Red Army ready for large scale offensives. It also took massive U.S. aid in the form of motor vehicles to make the Red Army a mobile force capable of such offensives.


This is where we would disagree, my friend... ;)


I looked at the condition of the Red Army during the early 1940’s to come to that conclusion. Their tanks and planes had no radios, their infantry and officers were poorly trained and they were poorly equipped. Imagine lugging that army over the border to face a well-trained, fairly well-equipped Wehrmacht.

Look at how often and how quickly the German Army recovered on the Eastern Front, Balsamo. This is with a Red Army operating on interior lines so supply is much less of an issue. Even after Stalingrad Manstein halted and then counterattacked the Red Army to retake Kharkov in 1943.

I don’t see the Red Army successfully attacking the Wehrmacht at a point where it was at its peak readiness.


Of course, if one starts early 1940.
There has been a lot of discussions on that in one thread here which got through quite deeply.
To sum it up briefly here, i do think that the main motivation of Stalin to sign the Molotov Pact was to encourage Hitler to engage in a military campaign against France and Great Britain, giving him time to pursue his military build-up.
I cannot remember all the data, as i am far from my notes, and my memory is {!#%@}, but i think i remember that by the end of 1941, the Red Army could align like 4000 units T-34, and started to produce more units in a month that Germany in a year. I could check the data, or dig out the old thread.

Another remark would be that the Wehrmacht strength was much more based on its military offensive tactic than on superiority of its equipment. A Soviet offensive would have been a bloodshed of course, but i am not that sure that the Wehrmacht would have been able to maintain its superiority defending against more troops and better tanks, better artillery, as the simple loss of Silesia would have deprived Hitler from his main industrial resources...And the Romanian oil fields on which the whole German war effort depended could have been taken or bombed quite easily...right at the start of the offensive.

Of course, Stalin did not expect the first European military force on the continent, and that was France by 1940, to fall in less than 3 weeks.

But let's not derail this thread.
Unfortunately i don't have the time i used to have to be back for real...as i have to go.

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:49 pm

Balsamo wrote:
Of course, if one starts early 1940.
There has been a lot of discussions on that in one thread here which got through quite deeply.
To sum it up briefly here, i do think that the main motivation of Stalin to sign the Molotov Pact was to encourage Hitler to engage in a military campaign against France and Great Britain, giving him time to pursue his military build-up.


I agree. It cost him little, gave him time to rebuild his military and as a bonus gave him territory.

I cannot remember all the data, as i am far from my notes, and my memory is {!#%@}, but i think i remember that by the end of 1941, the Red Army could align like 4000 units T-34, and started to produce more units in a month that Germany in a year. I could check the data, or dig out the old thread.


There was serious impetus behind that expansion. The Soviets desperately needed tanks at that point to counter the Germans. I see your point on this, though. There is no reason to assume they wouldn’t have done this anyway.

Another remark would be that the Wehrmacht strength was much more based on its military offensive tactic than on superiority of its equipment.


I agree with this also but don’t forget that the Germans were also very good at counterattacking. There is a serious imbalance between the experience of the Wehrmacht and the Red Army at this point.

A Soviet offensive would have been a bloodshed of course, but i am not that sure that the Wehrmacht would have been able to maintain its superiority defending against more troops and better tanks, better artillery, as the simple loss of Silesia would have deprived Hitler from his main industrial resources...And the Romanian oil fields on which the whole German war effort depended could have been taken or bombed quite easily...right at the start of the offensive.


I think that experience also counts for a lot, along with training. I don’t think the Red Army was anywhere close to effective offensive capability even without a German offensive in 1941.
It’s fine to have better tanks but if you don’t know how to utilize them then it doesn’t matter.

Of course, Stalin did not expect the first European military force on the continent, and that was France by 1940, to fall in less than 3 weeks.

But let's not derail this thread.


Too late..... :D

I see your point. I think a lot depends on when this hypothetical attack takes place.

If the Germans get tied up somewhere and don’t attack the USSR in 1941 or 1942 then it’s possible that Stalin would have the necessary forces ready and trained by 1943 (maybe 1942).

I think that experience counts for a lot in this and the one thing I always consider is that the Wehrmacht was an excellent fighting force.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:52 pm

Jeffk:
I agree. It cost him little, gave him time to rebuild his military and as a bonus gave him territory.


Exactly and those territories offered also a buffer zone (is that term all right??) threatening Prussia.

There was serious impetus behind that expansion. The Soviets desperately needed tanks at that point to counter the Germans. I see your point on this, though. There is no reason to assume they wouldn’t have done this anyway.


The T-34 is not precisely a defensive weapon.
I found in my notes (quite old and not mentioning the sources (kind of forum notes), the Red Army had 1.800 T-34 in service in 1941, with the production well in place so that they could count almost 4000 units at the start of 1942. In order to achieve such a result, it means that the Soviet Industry was already in a "war production" type, and not just organizing a defense "just in case, Dolfy turned mad".
In the same logic, the decision to raise the Red Army from 1.8 to 5 millions soldiers also does not fit quite with a purely defensive long term strategy.

As far as experience is concerned, well you might have a point, but contrary to the Soviet front, the German one would have been quite tight, the Red Army would have probably strike from three sides as it actually did later in 44/45:.. with quite dramatic result for the Nazis. South against Romania, Center striking Poland with Hungary as the next objectives, and north to Prussia and directly into the old Reich...
(This parts fits with the topic, at least)
By the end of 1941, the Wehrmacht had not even an anti-tank gun capable of dealing with a T-34, even less with a Stalin...The Nazi would have been stroke in Poland, and i am not aware of great fortification at the Oder at that time...

Again, i used to be a chess player, and the first rule is that there cannot be any victory without a winning goal...purely defensive and reactive tactics can at best reach a PAT...But in this case, great to counter attack, but to go where?
Actually, military history tells us that the Wehrmacht was quite bad at defense...

As for the estimation of the attack, i came to the conclusion that it would be winter 41/42.

But here i finally found the 3 years old threads (actually it was opened by David the local denier back in 2010), but the discussion between Jeff36 (aka the former Jeff, if he reads this i say hello), and I, starting at the end of page 3.

http://www.skepticforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=39&t=14899&start=80

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:01 pm

Thanks, Balsamo.

Just remember, though, by 44/45 the German Army was crumbling and still held the Red Army in Hungary.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:25 pm

Indeed, it is a sad think to say that the Nazis had very brilliant generals...and Schörner, as much son of a bitch he was, was one of the best, in my opinion...but he did not change the course of the war, did he?

Anyway, feel free to read my discussion with Jeff36, i was full in the subject back then, but that was more than 2 years ago...But i have read it a bit, and i can say that i stand with i what i wrote then...

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:49 am

Balsamo wrote:Indeed, it is a sad think to say that the Nazis had very brilliant generals...and Schörner, as much son of a bitch he was, was one of the best, in my opinion...but he did not change the course of the war, did he?

Anyway, feel free to read my discussion with Jeff36, i was full in the subject back then, but that was more than 2 years ago...But i have read it a bit, and i can say that i stand with i what i wrote then...


Thanks for the link. I’ll read it in more detail once I get a chance.

I do think that much of this depends on timing. I don’t think that the Red Army was capable of an offensive in the scale needed to defeat Germany in 1941. I think we are looking more realistically at 1943 before they are truly ready to attempt this. By then I think Hitler completes his offensive in North Africa (staying with our scenario) and attacks the USSR.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:57 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:[I don’t think that the Red Army was capable of an offensive in the scale needed to defeat Germany in 1941. I think we are looking more realistically at 1943. . .

with or without Barbarossa and what followed?
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:35 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:[I don’t think that the Red Army was capable of an offensive in the scale needed to defeat Germany in 1941. I think we are looking more realistically at 1943. . .

with or without Barbarossa and what followed?


If I’m reading what you say correctly, without Barbarossa.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:45 pm

Thanks I am not sure even of that: learning on the job, so to speak, and whilst faced with crisis after crisis, proved a good teacher for the Soviets.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:16 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Thanks I am not sure even of that: learning on the job, so to speak, and whilst faced with crisis after crisis, proved a good teacher for the Soviets.


There’s nothing like incentive.....

I give the Red Army a lot of credit for that. They managed to stop the Wehrmacht when no one else could. Distance, time and weather helped a lot, plus Stalin’s sheer stubbornness and willing to push Soviet citizens past their breaking point to stop the Germans. Only someone as ruthless as Stalin could have done that.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:24 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote: I give the Red Army a lot of credit for that. They managed to stop the Wehrmacht when no one else could. Distance, time and weather helped a lot, plus Stalin’s sheer stubbornness and willing to push Soviet citizens past their breaking point to stop the Germans. Only someone as ruthless as Stalin could have done that.

I don't know anything....but doesn't "history" give most of the credit to the weather? Men and equipment outfitted for summer...fighting in one of the coldest winters on record? Distance...yes. What does time ... mean?

And let's not pussyfoot the issue: Stalin didn't push Soviet Citizens past their breaking point: he sacrificed them.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:49 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Thanks I am not sure even of that: learning on the job, so to speak, and whilst faced with crisis after crisis, proved a good teacher for the Soviets.


There’s nothing like incentive.....

I give the Red Army a lot of credit for that. They managed to stop the Wehrmacht when no one else could. Distance, time and weather helped a lot, plus Stalin’s sheer stubbornness and willing to push Soviet citizens past their breaking point to stop the Germans. Only someone as ruthless as Stalin could have done that.

Reading Erickson I became impressed with the extent to which the Soviets did more than rely on sheer force of will and numbers/cannon fodder. Their generals improved, their tactics improved, their production of critical materiel improved, and the Red Army was formidable by 1943.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:03 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Thanks I am not sure even of that: learning on the job, so to speak, and whilst faced with crisis after crisis, proved a good teacher for the Soviets.


There’s nothing like incentive.....

I give the Red Army a lot of credit for that. They managed to stop the Wehrmacht when no one else could. Distance, time and weather helped a lot, plus Stalin’s sheer stubbornness and willing to push Soviet citizens past their breaking point to stop the Germans. Only someone as ruthless as Stalin could have done that.

Reading Erickson I became impressed with the extent to which the Soviets did more than rely on sheer force of will and numbers/cannon fodder. Their generals improved, their tactics improved, their production of critical materiel improved, and the Red Army was formidable by 1943.


I became impressed with them as well. Certainly the supplies they received from Lend/Lease helped them tremendously but they perfected the mass envelopment maneuver that the Germans used against them in 1941 and 1942.

I think people in the West don’t realize how truly formidable the Red Army became and the tremendous sacrifices it took to get them there. I also think that people in the West don’t realize the sacrifices the Soviets made in order to defeat the Germans.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:11 pm

Soviet Union (within 1946–91 borders[147])AY 188,793,000[148][149] 8,668,000[150]

Total Pop 188 vs 9 killed. = 5%

Full List: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:25 pm

Jeffk:

I do think that much of this depends on timing. I don’t think that the Red Army was capable of an offensive in the scale needed to defeat Germany in 1941. I think we are looking more realistically at 1943 before they are truly ready to attempt this. By then I think Hitler completes his offensive in North Africa (staying with our scenario) and attacks the USSR.


I do not understand why every one assumes that the Wehrmacht was invincible in 1941.
Its oil reserves stood at around 1.6 million tons (IIRC). When it launched Barbarossa, the Luftwaffe had less planes than the year before, less tanks (although better ones, but still many "tin cans" Pz I and II).
To give an idea of how much fuel that represented, Barbarossa consumed 450.000 tons of fuel between June and October 41...And i mean as a deficit, without taking in consideration the input from Hungarian and Romanian oil fields and the production of synthetic oil...
Germany started 1942 with oil reserves of 797.000 tons. As a comparison - i took those data form the posts i wrote - the Soviet oil production was 34.000.000 tons a year.

Actually, if one looks at the data of oil reserves of Nazi Germany we found out that without Stalin deliveries, there would not have been a Barbarossa. Again taken from my discussion with Jeff36.

Germany started the war with oil reserve of 1.6 million tons.
Total export of soviet oil between 1939 and 1941 was 912.000 tons
German oil reserve in June 1941 was 1.35 million tons
German oil reserve in October 1941 was 905.000 tons ( which means that 5 months of barbarasso resulted as explained above in a decrease of oil reserve of 450.000 tons...

Now if one withdraw form the oil reserve of June 1941 the total export of the USSR to Germany, it is quite obvious that Hitler would not even be in a position to pursue a world war, as it would only have 438.000 thousands (1.35 million - 912.000) = that is much less that has been consumed during the 5 first months of the offensive = no offensive possible.

The situation is even worse when it comes to rubber.
By October 1941 Nazi Germany had reserve of rubber of 12.1 million tons...Total export from the USSR to Germany was 18.8 million tons (German reserves of Rubber in June 41 stood at 13.8 million and in October 41 at 12.1 million)
The same with Manganese, and worst of all WHEAT.
By October 41 the wheat reserved fell to 761.000 tons versus 1.381.000 in June 41. Total export amounted to 1.637 million tons.

This is why 1942 would be an all in to reach the Russian oil fields and why the Nazis had to live on the conquered territories.
Actually, the food situation kind of annihilates our Middle East scenario... ;)

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:46 pm

Statmec:

Reading Erickson I became impressed with the extent to which the Soviets did more than rely on sheer force of will and numbers/cannon fodder. Their generals improved, their tactics improved, their production of critical materiel improved, and the Red Army was formidable by 1943.


It is not only Erickson, i have not read, but most of the authors are glad to point out the military "miracle".

Bobo:
Total Pop 188 vs 9 killed. = 5%

Full List: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties


Well no, you did not read the statistic right: the 9 million you quote is the lower figure of the military casualties, not the total which is still said to be over 26.000.000...but then, the USSR was the land of miracle...both military and demographic...
But then the period between 1941-1945 is a miracle per se, at it is the only period during which everyone believed whatever came from Soviet and Russian source...Even today, no one would give Putin or even the Russian media 0.01% of the the credit enjoyed by Stalin, Yukov and friends during those 4 years.

At least this wiki pages has it better regarding the demographic as it states 188.73 million (and the notes say that it includes the territories annexed between 39 and 41.

But it strikes me that Bellamy - whose book i am reading again thanks to this thread - wrote that: "
The figure of 196.7 million, based on adjusted 1939 census data (or 170.0000) is the basis of the claim that there were 26 to 27 million excess death during the war.


It seems that a reduction of 9 million of the figure given by Bellamy has no real consequence after all as the total given stays in a range of 20 to 27 million.
This is what i call the demographic miracle of the USSR
As the census for 1946 stands at 170.000.000 or so...

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:48 pm

Balsamo: lots of death, categorized as the interest desires. I was responding to: " I also think that people in the West don’t realize the sacrifices the Soviets made in order to defeat the Germans."...otoh...Military Deaths was the first category. If it was second, I probably would have given the higher civilian deaths. Ha, ha....I picked 9 million instead of a middle number because it made the math easy.........

Didn't Stalin use the war as an excuse to subjugate Ukraine and other areas/minorities? I don't think it would be "fair" to add those deaths in with War Dead...........they weren't. Whatever number that might be.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:47 am

As someone wiser than I says at times like these, Jesus wept.

Balsamo, I don't know how you continue on with a straight face . . . but you do, and it's impressive. (Btw I think you'd like Erickson's 2 volumes . . . )
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:15 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:As someone wiser than I says at times like these, Jesus wept.

Balsamo, I don't know how you continue on with a straight face . . . but you do, and it's impressive. (Btw I think you'd like Erickson's 2 volumes . . . )

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeah i knew you would react...
It is just that i have been through our former discussion, and i thought it was pretty good. ;)
Then it was just a matter of coincidence...you talking about Bellamy, i re-reading it, Bobbo missing things up with the death tolls...
And then, while reading it, i have been confronted with yet another example of an otherwise great authors, while taking his precaution, taking for granted the starting point that the USSR had in 1941 like 196.000.000 people and...well, like many other assertions regarding the USSR and this periods, there is just nothing valid to support it...And actually, it remembered me that i had a whole personal file on that demographic topic which was probably meant as a follow up in the previous discussion...

And then, after having watch a very emotional "America got talent", i thought to myself : "let's see if there is some life on this forum"... :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

I had this strange feeling you were missing some deniers, well was offering you a non-denier revisionist to play with... 8-)
Don't worry, i am not going to insist... My life got a little too complicated to sustain the kind of discussion we had...

PS: have ordered them...I mean the road to Stalingrad volumes

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:30 am

Balsamo wrote:I had this strange feeling you were missing some deniers, well was offering you a non-denier revisionist to play with... 8-)
Don't worry, i am not going to insist... My life got a little too complicated to sustain the kind of discussion we had...

Naw, I just meant that it's impressive how you keep giving full answers to bobbo's dim posts . . .

Btw my recollection of Bellamy on demographics is that he outlines how they're a bit all over the map and difficult to resolve . . . although IIRC also he then takes up the commonly used numbers on losses? I don't have the book with me in LA so I can't check . . . unrelated: Bellamy does not have much time for Suvorov.

Balsamo wrote:PS: have ordered them...I mean the road to Stalingrad volumes

Figures! LOL, for my money Erickson's description of Stalingrad and his accounts of the Allies' various conferences are the highest points among many high points.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:53 am

Balsamo wrote:Then it was just a matter of coincidence...you talking about Bellamy, i re-reading it, Bobbo missing things up with the death tolls...

How did I miss up? I gave my numbers and the source. Thats all any of us do. You can talk military deaths and/or associated civilian deaths. One does not miss anything, just looks at different issues. What I found impressive even using my minimal numbers was that the toll was still 5%...much above anyone else on the LINKED page.

Stat Mech: why don't you take your passive aggressive (aka: NOT HONEST) snide remarks and skip them if you don't have any thing constructive to add? You know: stop looking petty, rude, pathetic.........

If you want to explain your thinking, don't continue to pollute this thread: take it to the thread on Why Stat Mech enjoys the HD forum being inbred. Thats the place for your garbage, not here.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:16 pm

Statmec:

Btw my recollection of Bellamy on demographics is that he outlines how they're a bit all over the map and difficult to resolve . . . although IIRC also he then takes up the commonly used numbers on losses? I don't have the book with me in LA so I can't check . . . unrelated: Bellamy does not have much time for Suvorov.


I insisted on Bellamy caution regarding all those data, nevertheless he still assumes the 26.6 million.
Now i was a bit brutal in my post, so i feel i have to clarify what i mean by "demographic miracle", as it seems to be a huge misunderstanding about this data. Bellamy explained it fairly well, but not everyone has read it.

My post thus should not be taken as a form of denier attack regarding the million of deaths among the Soviets. So i do not mean that this number is a kind of hoax as would deniers. I do think that there are other forms of estimates around which result in huge numbers. Those numbers is not my target, let's be clear about that.
Everyone is free to try googling "Soviet deaths" and most of the time this 26.6 million will come out.
First it is wrong to assume that this specific number of 26.6 million is the result of an addition of victims. This number is the result of a purely demographer's work which was based on the calculation of the "excess number of death" based purely on demographic data. This characteristic seems to be forgotten in most article i have come across.

The big problem then become the data on which these demographic studies are based. And here lies the problem for me.
As far as i know, there had been only 4 big census held in the USSR: 1926, 1937, 1939 and 1959.
The results were column 1 Wiki page / column 2 as in Bellamy
1926 148,656,000 148.800.000
1937 162,500,000 156 000 000
1939 168,524,000 167.000.000
1941 196,716,000

The source for the wiki page is Andreev, E.M., et al., Naselenie Sovetskogo Soiuza, 1922-1991. Moscow, Nauka, 1993
Now on the wiki pages dedicated to the 1937 census, it is said that the preliminary result stood at 162,039,470 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_(1937)

Actually, the rise of 14.000.000 people during the period between 1926 and 1937 is quite impressive given the conditions of the 30's, the tumbling of wheat production due to the collectivization and the famine (holodomor)...But, as Bellamy writes, Stalin who was boasting the near perfect state of the "workers paradise", claiming that the comrades were breeding 3.000.000 additional workers annually was not satisfied, an ordered a new census to be organized which allows the Soviet statistician to found out 6.000.000 additional soviet citizens two years later (which fits by the way with Stalin's personal estimate of 3.000.000 a year).
But even then, it was not enough for him so a further "correction added 3.000.000 to that number to reach 170.000.000...

Now, the question remains how did one reach the astronomical number of 196.4 million...We are told that this number includes the annexed territories. Now even if one takes the current population of those territories, one barely reaches 22.875.000...taking the 1939 numbers, it should be reduced to 19.000.000, but let's admit 20.000.000 (among them 12.000.000 Poles)...And of course, the Soviet fertility praised by Stalin did the trick...so add 6.000.000 for 1940 and 1941...And there you have your 196.4 million.

This is what i call the "demographic miracle", which serves as the fundamental base of the 26.6 million "Excess deaths".
And yes, you will find this 196.4 million figure in almost every evaluation regarding the number of Soviet victim of the war.

So, like the thousands of tanks without tank crew, tens of thousands of military aircraft without pilots, 5.6 million soldiers without a riffle, we are just told to believe that the Russian population rose 28.000.000 between 1926 and 1941, or in just 16 years, despite the purge, the famines, the millions unable to breed because stuck in some gulags, the million of displaced persons in the huge ethnic reorganization that took place during the period.

The Soviets really must have had a secret breeding weapons, some kind of Viagra, or maybe a obligatory sex hour every day on the work places, factories or in the fields...We can only speculate.

Maybe this is the very reason that motivated Hitler to launch Barbarossa...because Germany despite all the effort to promote families, and breeding among good German actually only managed to raise its population from 66 to 70 million between 1933 and 1940...By 1945, the German population got back to its 1934 level, and it will take another 10 years to get back to 70.000.000...

Even Catholic Poland did not manage to achieve such a demographic miracle, its population raised from 29.9 million to 34 million during the same period...with a 1946 population of only 23.7 million...It will only be in 1974 that Poland will get back to its 1939 level.

But those "horny" Soviets still had their secret breeding weapon as the census of 1959 will count over 209.000.000 citizens.

Again, it is not the results that concerns me, the methodology that seems accepted by everyone, more or less...Granted, Bellamy is very dubious about the 196.4 million figure, but nevertheless seems to accept the 26.6 million which is the result from it...and this quite puzzles me, i admit.

I will stop here for now...

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:05 am

That’s what I recall of Bellamy too. Questions the assumptions and big numbers but runs with 27 million.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:39 am

Balsamo wrote:Jeffk:

I do think that much of this depends on timing. I don’t think that the Red Army was capable of an offensive in the scale needed to defeat Germany in 1941. I think we are looking more realistically at 1943 before they are truly ready to attempt this. By then I think Hitler completes his offensive in North Africa (staying with our scenario) and attacks the USSR.


I do not understand why every one assumes that the Wehrmacht was invincible in 1941.
Its oil reserves stood at around 1.6 million tons (IIRC). When it launched Barbarossa, the Luftwaffe had less planes than the year before, less tanks (although better ones, but still many "tin cans" Pz I and II).
To give an idea of how much fuel that represented, Barbarossa consumed 450.000 tons of fuel between June and October 41...And i mean as a deficit, without taking in consideration the input from Hungarian and Romanian oil fields and the production of synthetic oil...
Germany started 1942 with oil reserves of 797.000 tons. As a comparison - i took those data form the posts i wrote - the Soviet oil production was 34.000.000 tons a year.

Actually, if one looks at the data of oil reserves of Nazi Germany we found out that without Stalin deliveries, there would not have been a Barbarossa. Again taken from my discussion with Jeff36.

Germany started the war with oil reserve of 1.6 million tons.
Total export of soviet oil between 1939 and 1941 was 912.000 tons
German oil reserve in June 1941 was 1.35 million tons
German oil reserve in October 1941 was 905.000 tons ( which means that 5 months of barbarasso resulted as explained above in a decrease of oil reserve of 450.000 tons...

Now if one withdraw form the oil reserve of June 1941 the total export of the USSR to Germany, it is quite obvious that Hitler would not even be in a position to pursue a world war, as it would only have 438.000 thousands (1.35 million - 912.000) = that is much less that has been consumed during the 5 first months of the offensive = no offensive possible.

The situation is even worse when it comes to rubber.
By October 1941 Nazi Germany had reserve of rubber of 12.1 million tons...Total export from the USSR to Germany was 18.8 million tons (German reserves of Rubber in June 41 stood at 13.8 million and in October 41 at 12.1 million)
The same with Manganese, and worst of all WHEAT.
By October 41 the wheat reserved fell to 761.000 tons versus 1.381.000 in June 41. Total export amounted to 1.637 million tons.

This is why 1942 would be an all in to reach the Russian oil fields and why the Nazis had to live on the conquered territories.
Actually, the food situation kind of annihilates our Middle East scenario... ;)



Seems to me the lack of oil annihalates any solution for Dolfy... Fall Blau was a fool's errand: How the hell did they think they were going to move SU oil reserves/petroleum product where it needed to be?

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Balsamo » Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:11 pm

Balmoral:
Seems to me the lack of oil annihalates any solution for Dolfy... Fall Blau was a fool's errand: How the hell did they think they were going to move SU oil reserves/petroleum product where it needed to be?


Indeed, but the problem was there from day 1 which is what is the most forgotten. As far as oil is concerned, Nazi Germany led its wars and campaign on borrowed money. Thanks to Stalin - which is one of my points in the old thread - Hitler will be able to fuel his blitzkrieg, thanks to the capture of the French oil reserve, he will fuel his aircraft during the battle of Britain, but that was a waste.
So by June 41, Hitler had less oil than in 1939, and its production of synthetic oil was not yet optimal. At its peak production of synthetic oil reached 3.000.000 tons a year (less than 10% of the Soviets yearly output, and less than 5% of what was available to the western allies) but then will be attacked by the bombing campaign.

Guderian, i think, called Fall blau as a too ambitious campaign with not enough means. Well, he is right, but it was the only chance left for Hitler if not to win, at least not to lose the war. But in order to gather enough fuel for this offensive of the last chance, he had to cut all others consumption: to short training of Luftwaffe pilot, even to ground his interceptors, to freeze all other fronts, but although the Germans managed to seize some oil fields at Maikop and Grozny (and not for long enough), i agree that the whole enterprise was foolish.

Oil is the very reason why the strength of the Wehrmacht is even today still overrated, and far from being the most powerful military army ever assembled, it plays for its survival in every major campaigns, and could only lose in this last one.

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeff_36 » Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:55 am

Balsamo wrote:Indeed, it is a sad think to say that the Nazis had very brilliant generals...and Schörner, as much son of a bitch he was, was one of the best, in my opinion...but he did not change the course of the war, did he?

Anyway, feel free to read my discussion with Jeff36, i was full in the subject back then, but that was more than 2 years ago...But i have read it a bit, and i can say that i stand with i what i wrote then...


We must also take into account that the Soviets did not boast the Sturmovik assault aircraft until 1942. The Red Army was a terribly impotent, shambling mess in 1940/41. Pitiful really.

This has nothing to do with Suvorov (different discussion - this is all speculative and not investigative) but any hypothetical Russian attack would have been a disaster. You have the army that had just rolled though 9 countries without breaking a sweat facing off against an army that had almost been wiped out by the Finns. No contest.

It just goes to show how pivotal US entry was to the course of the war, and how alone Britain/the Commonwealth was for a good part of it.

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:53 am

Jeff_36 wrote:You have the army that had just rolled though 9 countries without breaking a sweat . . .

Sure but they had Pervitin.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby psychiatry is a scam » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:12 am

Malta Spitfire GEORGE BEURLING and Leslie Roberts

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 1:30 am

psychiatry is a scam wrote:Malta Spitfire GEORGE BEURLING and Leslie Roberts


You don't need to tell me about Buzz {!#%@} Burling. I already know.

:yahoo:

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:15 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:
Of course, if one starts early 1940.
There has been a lot of discussions on that in one thread here which got through quite deeply.
To sum it up briefly here, i do think that the main motivation of Stalin to sign the Molotov Pact was to encourage Hitler to engage in a military campaign against France and Great Britain, giving him time to pursue his military build-up.


I agree. It cost him little, gave him time to rebuild his military and as a bonus gave him territory.


An amusing side note to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact:
Stalin neglected to let his border guard know about Ribbentrop’s arrival. The border guards fired at Ribbentrop’s plane as it passed over, they missed (of course).
A joke going around Moscow during The Great Terror:

The NKVD knocks on a door.
The inhabitants ask who it is.
“NKVD.”
“You’ve got the wrong apartment. The Communists are upstairs.”

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:23 am

Jeffk 1970 wrote:Stalin neglected to let his border guard know about Ribbentrop’s arrival. The border guards fired at Ribbentrop’s plane as it passed over, they missed (of course).

Too bad, actually.
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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:24 am

Hitler also sent his personal photographer to document the occasion and more importantly, to determine if Stalin’s earlobes were ingrown (Jewish) or separate (Aryan).
A joke going around Moscow during The Great Terror:

The NKVD knocks on a door.
The inhabitants ask who it is.
“NKVD.”
“You’ve got the wrong apartment. The Communists are upstairs.”

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Re: Why Germany couldn't have won the war

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:28 am

Lenin on secret protocols:
“Agreements between robbers behind people’s backs!!”

Oops.
A joke going around Moscow during The Great Terror:

The NKVD knocks on a door.
The inhabitants ask who it is.
“NKVD.”
“You’ve got the wrong apartment. The Communists are upstairs.”


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