Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:01 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Another prominent Sweden Democrat is dropping his candidacy, on account of corruption charges reported in Aftonbladet. Seeing them up close, and reading about them daily, they come across like a bunch of losers and thugs.


I mean........ was this not foreseeable? I'm not blaming you or anyone, all I'm saying is that no one must really be surprised. When your party is rooted in explicit ethno-nationalism, it's hard to shake off.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:06 am

montgomery wrote:I'm trying to remain respectful of your opinions. Mainly because there's little else that's respectable around here.


you have been slamming posters here no-stop, accusing various personae of being reptilian alien overlords Israeli lobbyists. hardly respectful.

But please don't bring up my straying off topic if you're willing to do it yourself and suffer it being done consistently by all the others. And especially when you have nothing to say about the personal insults and spamming.


Again, you have been questioning the patriotism of multiple posters, and making insinuations of foreign payoff. That falls under "personal attacks and spamming."


I'm going to continue to harp on the insults and the spamming and by doing that I'm taking the high ground.


What is it that you want to discuss? Why have you deluded yourself into playing the victim here?

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:11 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:I came across this on a walk in the woods today, near a newly built community outside the city, the kind of place sometimes called a no-go zone, a campaign slogan chalked onto the path:

Image

It reads: Are you also tired of racism? F! [Feminist Initiative]


Great, the extreme left chips in. This type of {!#%@} emboldens the radical right and it draws people to the less openly Nazi spheres of their world (more Cernovich, less Spencer). Not needed. What is needed is total isolation of the SD at the political level by all parties across the spectrum. As we have seen, that is not likely, unfortunately. It's a shame when respectable parties hitch their wagons to despicable populist movements in pursuit of power - like what happened in Austria not long ago, or in Germany in 1932......

TLDR: Appreciate the sentiment but money-burning uni-students should stay home and let the adults work.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:27 am

montgomery wrote:That's what is most to do with the reason why you are interested in what's happening in Sweden. And you've put it here on the holocaust section because of how it's related, right?


Alright.

As it stands, the Sweden Democrats are leading in the Swedish polls ahead of an impending election. Why does this matter? Because the Sweden Democrats are descended from a party called Bevara Sverige Svenskt (BSS) which existed in the 70's and 80's. BSS was an explicitly White Nationalist party that was inspired by the infamous Nysvenska Rörelsen movement led by Per Engdal during the war years - a Nazi-inspired party that would have likely formed a collaborationist government had Hitler invaded. True to it's roots, the Sweden Democrats have typically been a xenophobic, white supremacist party. They have attempted a make-over lately, but it is evident from public statements by various members that they have not really changed their ways.

It is relevant in that a western European country appears to be on the verge of a crypto-nazi takeover.

Do you think that America turning toward socialism would be the safest for Israel's chances of continuing U.S. support of money and weapons?


That is such a stupid question that I cannot even find words right now.

America should never turn to socialism - it is an absurd, failed ideology that has killed 140 million people (I consider Nazisim and Communisim both to be socialist ideologies). I am disappointed by the rise of a Chavist Tea Party in the Democratic Party - the answer to Trump's low-IQ populism is shrewd, pragmatic, policy-based campaigning, albeit with a common touch and flair that Clinton (I hate even typing her name) lacked, NOT radicalism. They risk giving him a second term with this BS.

But let's say we had President Warren (which would be as bad as Trump but for totally different reasons) with Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez as Speaker of the House. They are not enamored with Israel (neither am I at the moment but for different reasons).

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:43 am

montgomery wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:I realize that my last post could be misunderstood as being about Israel and Zionism. So be it.


So far it's off-topic for this section of the forum but that doesn't seem to matter in your case. I presume you'll eventually make the connection to holocaust denying?


Imma gon' give it to ya srait up: A great number, perhaps a plurality, of core supporters of European nationalist-populist parties are likely Holocaust deniers, some more so than others (literally zero with PIS in Poland, but I reckon upwards of 60% with Jobbik in Hungary).

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:49 am

montgomery wrote:Interesting about your wife! I can't quite believe it even though I would really like to believe you're married to that sort of person. Do you and your wife pull the wings off of houseflies when you have free time together? :lol:


*Complains about personal attacks*

*Posts this garbage*

Is this satire?

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balmoral95 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:59 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
montgomery wrote:Interesting about your wife! I can't quite believe it even though I would really like to believe you're married to that sort of person. Do you and your wife pull the wings off of houseflies when you have free time together? :lol:


*Complains about personal attacks*

*Posts this garbage*

Is this satire?


He doesn't do irony or satire...

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:11 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:I spoke further today to a representative of the Centerpartiet who told me point blank - I asked him Jeff_36’s freeze out question directly - that his party cannot join a coalition with the Social Democrats on two grounds: unions and governing style/behavior. He believes that it is distinctly possible that the Moderaterna would be willing to enter a governing coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I spoke also to a representative of the Left party who wants a governing coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens and Left and doesn’t see how cooperation of the Social Democrats and Center + Liberals could come about, again on the ground of attitudes toward unions.


Thanks for asking! Now we seem to be a little closer to an answer. I think that Moderaterna holds the cards here - I believe they will enter into a coalition with one of the Centerpartiet or SD, whichever has the most seats, thus guaranteeing a stronger standing in government.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:12 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:
montgomery wrote:Interesting about your wife! I can't quite believe it even though I would really like to believe you're married to that sort of person. Do you and your wife pull the wings off of houseflies when you have free time together? :lol:


*Complains about personal attacks*

*Posts this garbage*

Is this satire?


He doesn't do irony or satire...


This is gonna be a blast.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:11 am

montgomery wrote:Interesting about your wife! I can't quite believe it even though I would really like to believe you're married to that sort of person. Do you and your wife pull the wings off of houseflies when you have free time together? :lol:

She's great, is that what you're saying? Where do houseflies get into it? They are far preferable to Nazi wannabes.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:14 am

Jeff_36 wrote:Hey guys, remember what I said about how CC/Been-There was an example of far-left antisemetisim? Like Corbyn and Momentum in the UK? Well it looks like we've got another one here.

OTOH he's been peddling antiwar.com which is a libertarian-backed, mostly right-wing website, with truther and anti-Semitic overtones. It doth run from Pat Buchanan to Juan Cole, but it is a project of a libertarian outfit.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:15 am

Jeff_36 wrote:Has Ian Hazard forgot his old password?

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:28 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:I came across this on a walk in the woods today, near a newly built community outside the city, the kind of place sometimes called a no-go zone, a campaign slogan chalked onto the path:

... It reads: Are you also tired of racism? F! [Feminist Initiative]


Great, the extreme left chips in. This type of {!#%@} emboldens the radical right and it draws people to the less openly Nazi spheres of their world (more Cernovich, less Spencer). Not needed.

F! is a 1-2% party. This was chalked, as I say, in a putative no-go zone, hardly an SD stronghold. Other graffiti in this area includes "Tear down all the walls," "No nations," and literal communist slogans. That said, the SDs will get votes from recent immigrants.

Jeff_36 wrote:What is needed is total isolation of the SD at the political level by all parties across the spectrum.

There are two problems with this: the two most conservative parties (the Moderaterna and the Christian Democrats) waffle on this question, and the right-leaning Alliance cannot form a government without SD votes - whilst not wanting votes from the left-wing parties.

What I am observing here comes under the heading: splintering/fragmentation and breakdown of the established parties. As recently as 2010, both the Moderaterna and the Social Democrats were supported by over 30% of the voters (total: 62%, against today's probably 40-43%).

If we think Sweden is something, all one needs to do is recall that in Americans elected a nativist-kleptocrat with over 40% of the vote.

Jeff_36 wrote:As we have seen, that is not likely, unfortunately. It's a shame when respectable parties hitch their wagons to despicable populist movements in pursuit of power - like what happened in Austria not long ago, or in Germany in 1932......

Are they still respectable at that point? I do think that the headlines have been all about the SD but up close it looks more like another failure of the larger, mainstream parties; growth of the smaller parties (Center, Left, and SD); and political fragmentation that will impede governance.

Jeff_36 wrote:TLDR: Appreciate the sentiment but money-burning uni-students should stay home and let the adults work.

Not sure how this fits in. In Sweden, involving the youth remains a major concern. Civic education is stressed (it's been almost killed off in the US, for example). The campaign workers staffing the valstugor (election huts) run by the parties spend a great deal of time and effort talking to students, down to middle school age, about their parties and the system.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:32 am

Jeff_36 wrote:As it stands, the Sweden Democrats are leading in the Swedish polls ahead of an impending election.

correction: in the average of polls, the SD is tied for 2nd; they lead in one poll, YouGov, which is a poll reliant on volunteering to participate, much like overnight snap polls in the US
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balsamo » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:36 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Has Ian Hazard forgot his old password?

:lol: :lol: :lol:


Well spotted Jeff, it could very well be true.
Great remarks! :lol:

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:39 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:I spoke further today to a representative of the Centerpartiet who told me point blank - I asked him Jeff_36’s freeze out question directly - that his party cannot join a coalition with the Social Democrats on two grounds: unions and governing style/behavior. He believes that it is distinctly possible that the Moderaterna would be willing to enter a governing coalition with the Sweden Democrats. I spoke also to a representative of the Left party who wants a governing coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens and Left and doesn’t see how cooperation of the Social Democrats and Center + Liberals could come about, again on the ground of attitudes toward unions.


Thanks for asking! Now we seem to be a little closer to an answer. I think that Moderaterna holds the cards here - I believe they will enter into a coalition with one of the Centerpartiet or SD, whichever has the most seats, thus guaranteeing a stronger standing in government.

The Moderaterna are already in an alliance with the Centerpartiet. It's called "the Alliance." The Alliance, which is slightly smaller than the Reds-Greens, will likely get around 40% of the vote; it includes (and has for years) the Moderaterna (the governing party from 2006-2014 IIRC, and deeply unpopular with many due to the way "reforms" - ones you'd like - from that time have played out)*, the Centerpartiet, the Liberals, and the Christian Democrats.

What people on the (moderate) right and left believe, and fear, is that the Moderaterna will, along with the Christian Democrats, go into a government with the SD. The SD is likely to be bigger than the Moderaterna.

----

* The Moderaterna got 30+% of the vote in 2010; today they are polling at 16-17%, whereas the SD have gone from 5% in 2010 to 13% in 2014 to likely 20+% - no one believes the recent polling for the SDs, btw - in this election.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balmoral95 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:44 am

Balsamo wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Has Ian Hazard forgot his old password?

:lol: :lol: :lol:


Well spotted Jeff, it could very well be true.
Great remarks! :lol:


It's kinda like Traynor left an abandoned baby on our doorstep without a note.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:38 am

I can't lay off this one, and it relates, Two Scoops being coached by Bannon (per Woodward):
“I love that,” Trump said, according to Woodward’s account. “That’s what I am, a popularist.”

Woodward completes the scene:

“‘No, no,’ Bannon said. ‘It’s populist.’

“‘Yeah, yeah,’ Trump insisted. ‘A popularist.’”

Popularism.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:51 am

assessment of political situation in France today: "Trump’s poll ratings are better than Macron’s, after a year. Why? The French president came into power promising a revolution, but his acceleration of market reforms has soured voters’ mood"

Not impressed by the comparison to Trump's situation, I have to say; OTOH the focus on "peripheral areas" reminded me of an outdoor photo exhibition I saw in Berlin in late August (cue CTs for why I was in Berlin!), Stefan Enders' fascinating "Weit weg von Brüssel".
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:37 am

Balsamo wrote:Great remarks! :lol:

Except IMO the parts on 1) socialism equating to communism and fascism (we've been over this, I think it's ahistorical and a form of red-baiting), 2) what's needed being "pragmatic, policy-based campaigning," as if that hasn't been tried; and 3) the hope for salvation from the right-center (whose pragmatic, policy-based governance has resulted in the privatization, tax cuts and service cut backs, challenged living standards for groups that struggle, a widening wealth gap, etc that so many voters here are pissed off about).

In Sweden one can see quite palpably how right-center policies - championed by the "establishment" (globalists if you will) including the Moderaterna and the Social Democrats - have led to an increase in support for the Sweden Democrats, the very thing Jeff_36 says he wants to stop, as marginalized, damaged voters turn to nativism and xenophobia as explanations for recent changes in society and economics and for their increasingly difficult straits.

Again, it is 15-20 years of center-right pragmatic policy that has turned voters off to the two "establishment" parties.

Leaving aside the F!, the "extreme" left here btw favors a moderate-left form of social democracy, stronger unions and more funding for education and healthcare, and a range of government services managed as services not profit opportunities for private business. I spoke to a theology grad student who said that the election was "bringing out the extremes," and then corrected himself, saying, "Well, in the case of the Left, it's not actually an extreme."

A side comment: It's also important not to let the name Centerpartiet fool you: on the spectrum here, the Centerpartiet is part of the conservative alliance - it grew out of the Farmers Party, it is an extreme free market party (think Kochs or Heritage Foundation in US terms - sharply lower taxes, decreased employer contributions to social welfare, extreme deregulation, privatization, smaller government, reduced power for employees) but it also favors marriage equality and immigration, with support for better integration of immigrants. The Centerpartiet says that they champion the environment, but the party promotes, zealously, the free market fundamentalism that's led to ecological disaster as the pathway to "green" economics. Centerpartiet sees both the (right-wing) Social Democrats and the (nativist) Sweden Democrats as their main foes and say they can ally with neither. They strike me as a bit Macronist. In fact, their slogan echoes "En Marche" - it is "Framåt," or Forward or Onward or Ahead. One of their main pitches is "Framåt för småföretagen" (Forward for small businesses).
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby montgomery » Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:56 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Balsamo wrote:Great remarks! :lol:

Except IMO the parts on 1) socialism equating to communism and fascism (we've been over this, I think it's ahistorical and a form of red-baiting), 2) what's needed being "pragmatic, policy-based campaigning," as if that hasn't been tried; and 3) the hope for salvation from the right-center (whose pragmatic, policy-based governance has resulted in the privatization, tax cuts and service cut backs, challenged living standards for groups that struggle, a widening wealth gap, etc that so many voters here are pissed off about).


What are you on about? Socialism certainly can be equated to communism, but not to fascism. It's only in the US and in the apartheid regime that the paranoia of everybody imagining a commie under their beds, the similarities aren't understood. Kriste kid, if communism isn't akin to socialism then I'm your jewish uncle.

In the U.S. and in the apartheid regime country there is an absence of understanding how capitalism can be socially responsible capitalism. Most of the people think that capitalism, U.S. and apartheid regime style is the only real capitalism.

Other than that, socialism is communism. Americans and Zionists just don't understand what socialism is. They think the socially responsible countries of the world are all communist holdouts. Ask a Swede or a Dane or a Norwegian.

Happily you're right about the red baiting in the US and the Zionist apartheid regime, but for the wrong reason.

And please, could you stop throwing puppies and kittens off of high cliffs just for family sport?

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:47 am

With the Swedish election Sunday . . .

- Aftonbladet is reporting this morning that, having first exposed that an SD leader, Lars Nilsson, had been posting comments on the Nordiska motståndsrörelsen website (NMR), they can report that “several SD candidates are hateful to immigrants” [my bad translation] on the Nordfront’s website (NMR is an explicitly neo-Nazi movement across the Nordic countries). Contacted, one of these SD members pretended to be someone else, one was defiant and insulting in the interview, another - who’d urged NMR to “keep up the good work,” told Aftonbladet “I have no idea what I wrote so” - others simply refused comment. Among the comments quoted by Aftonbladet: “What is needed is a coordinated attack against all mosques at the same time. And that someone or diligent people trace and map the Muslim Brotherhood. STOP this power factor.”

- Commenting on the 2014 results, where SD overperformed polling, and on the wide range of polling results for the SD in this year’s election, University of Göteborg political scientist Sören Holmberg says that it’s difficult to project this year's support for the SD: “There is a lot of uncertainty. None of us know how it will go.” Holmberg notes that polling of support for parties of the SD type - and Trump - is hard due to the alienation of supporters from mainstream institutions - and that Swedish pollsters after 2014’s surprises made significant methodological improvements to address this problem.

- According to the Oxford Internet Institute’s report, “Mapping the 2018 Swedish General Election on Twitter,” about one-third of articles on Swedish politics recently shared on Twitter are “junk news,” with those publishing the articles “deliberately publishing misleading, deceptive or incorrect information purporting to be real news about politics, economics or culture" and promoting "various forms of extremist, sensationalist and conspiratorial material.” The scope of such news in Sweden, according to these researchers, is “higher than any other European country studied – and second only to the US in recent major elections.” Unlike in the US, OTOH, the “junk news” in Sweden is not significantly from Russian sources but from far-right and anti-immigrant groups in the country.

- Btw one of the slogans I saw chalked onto the pavement in the so-called no-go zone I am visiting reads "Läxfri skola!" which translates "Homework free school!" I had to ask. The slogan was chalked by a fringe party but the sentiment is rather widespread, I was told - and does not mean what it sounds like to American ears. Rather, it implies that school-time should be far more rigorous than it has been, with teachers using the day to do serious learning, less about feelings. If this were done, the argument apparently runs, home time can be for family, feelings, personal exploration. Again, in contrast to the international media's coverage, the big election themes here include education and school funding, the healthcare crisis, climate change, inclusion and equal opportunity, retirement. It is the Sweden Democrats and the Moderaterna which focus on migration and law and order.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:16 pm

This piece in The Local, which is generally blah, mentions a NY Times article on the elections in Sweden that was both nativist in its obsessions and framing and full of very basic factual errors. Kind of serving mistakes with your bigoted stereotypes. The Local's author details the whoppers in the Times' article, which is symptomatic of the sensationalistic reporting about the Sweden Democrats and the supposedly failed Swedish polity. My friends here were furious with the Times for including the piece, promoting racist stereotypes, and spoiling their otherwise pleasant day. Here for once is a piece in The Local I actually found worth reading.

This Twitter outburst is even better destroying the Times' contribution.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby scrmbldggs » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:07 pm

^No first linky included.
.

Lard, save me from your followers.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:32 pm

Är det bättre nu? :)
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby scrmbldggs » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:36 pm

Sa brura :)
.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:37 am

I watched last night's final Swedish election debate on SVT, the country's national public broadcaster. During the segment on "integration," Jimmy Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, said,
Integration policy has concerned that only immigrants get jobs solving everything. It does not happen, it will not be that. One has to ask the question why it's so hard for these people to get jobs - because they are not Swedes, because they do not fit in Sweden and then it's hard to get jobs.

"How you express yourself!" replied Centerpartiet leader Annie Lööf.

Åkesson shot back with still more stereotyping, "You're always so angry Annie Lööf, stop bawling and screaming in every debate."

Today SVT is "distancing" itself, whatever that means, from Åkesson's statement on immigrants, under the fifth chapter of the country's Broadcasting Act, which states that broadcasts "be characterized by the basic ideas of democratic governance and the principle of equal value for all people." With my limited Swedish, I think that SVT is saying that, despite the forum being a party leaders' debate, Åkesson's statement violates the basic law on broadcasting standards. SVT's statement makes clear that the broadcaster is not taking a stance on the SD itself: "We do not take a stand against SD, we are distancing from a generalization that was said, it has nothing to do with the party."
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:55 am

Aftonbladet's commentary on the debate:
A staggering statement. According to the latest figures from Migration Facts, 1.6 million people are born abroad. This corresponds to 16 percent of the population. Without them, health and public transport would fall apart. It would not be possible to eat at a restaurant and the offices would be untouched.

In fact, they fit in. But not in Jimmie Åkesson's head.

How do you express yourself, wondering Annie Lööf outraged. She did not answer that. Instead, Åkesson accused her of screaming and screaming.

If judging by the conduct, the government has already given up. Both Stefan Löfven (S) [Social Democrats, current prime minister] and Isabella Lövin (MP) [co-leader of the Greens, the other party in the governing coalition] looked serious, already in the opposition, during the debate.

There was sharp, and inconclusive discussion, about whether the Moderaterna, who believe they are poised to head the next government, would use Sweden Democrat support to rule - and, if so, how the Centerpartiet in particular would react.

Overnight polling had the debate winners as the leaders of the two smallest parties in the current conservative opposition, Ebba Busch Thor (Christian Democrats) and Jan Björklund (Liberals). Jonas Sjöstedt (Left) did best of the Reds-Greens. To me, Lövin (Greens) seemed almost out of it.

The SDs look to be using SVT's "distancing" statement as their weekend campaign issue.

The final Ekot tally (average of 4 polls) has Social Democrats 24.8%, Sweden Democrats 17.2%, and Moderaterna 17.6%, with both the Social Democrats and Moderaterna poised to be this election's biggest losers over 2014, each dropping by about 6%. OTOH the biggest gainers appear to be the Centerpartiet and the Left, as Expressen explains, "Where the Left Party received 5.72 percent of the votes in the previous election, voter support is now estimated at 10 percent. For the Center Party, which received 6.11 percent of the votes in the 2014 election, an increase of 3.39 percentage points - to 9.5 percent is estimated." The Reds-Greens poll at 40% to the Alliance's 39%.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:23 am

"It was still at the stage of clubs and fists, hurrah, tala"

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:55 pm

I spoke today to a campaigner for the Moderaterna. I asked what the next government will be. He said it would be headed by his party. I said that I knew enough to understand that his bloc would not have a majority and would perhaps even be second. He said, “Doesn’t matter.” And gestured toward the cottage where the Sweden Democrats were campaigning.

I said, “So you will pass a budget with SD votes.”

He said, “Of course.”

I said that doing so flies in the face of what the party has said during the campaign, to which he looked surprised. He said,”True but we have no choice. We are now a poor country with a terrible climate for business, one of the worst, we are becoming poorer and poorer, so” - he gestured across the square to the Social Democrats’ cottage - “blame them, they’ve made Sweden poor.”

He added, almost proud, “Only our side can get SD’s suppprt.”

I suspect that what he told me is exactly what will happen. The current government will not get enough votes for its budget, a right-wing government with SD support, will - and so the Moderaterna, largest party on the right bloc, will be asked to form a government even if the right bloc wins fewer seats in the Riksdag than the Reds-Greens.

Anyway, this is a long winded answer to Jeff_36’s question about freezing the SD out: the government is likely to exist only with the SD’s support, which the Alliance, or at least enough of it, will accept after all the posturing.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby montgomery » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:46 pm

Sweden will turn back and forth between socially responsible capitalism and less socially responsible capitalism. It won't turn hard right to anything resembling America's extremist capitalist style.

All capitalist countries except America have this in common. If you're expecting something different then you will be disappointed. I'm not really sure what you're promoting politically, other than your holocaust promotion agenda. Maybe you would like to say?

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:47 am

@Jeff_36: The campaigner I was speaking to yesterday was running for a local office, not a Moderaterna leader or policy maker. From today's WaPo, after a note that the Sweden Democrats are unlikely to have any cabinet posts in a Moderaterna led government:
In the past, there was a feeling that “if the Sweden Democrats adopt one view, then we must adopt a different view,” said Johan Forssell, the spokesman for the center-right Moderate Party [I've been calling this party by their Swedish name, Moderaterna] on migration issues. Now, he said, his party would be happy to use Sweden Democrats’ support on issues where their views intersect, including migration and crime.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... 755ad83f2a
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby VFX » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:50 am

montgomery wrote:Sweden will turn back and forth between socially responsible capitalism and less socially responsible capitalism. It won't turn hard right to anything resembling America's extremist capitalist style.

All capitalist countries except America have this in common. If you're expecting something different then you will be disappointed. I'm not really sure what you're promoting politically, other than your holocaust promotion agenda. Maybe you would like to say?

True what I have found Monty is that many Americans assume their political system is the only one. In fact it is a recent invention with the help of International jews most likely. It is a huge ponzi scheme.
Europe is heading towards National Socialism and the Swedish elections which are to start soon will reflect this. These people here seem not to be politically aware but I suspect a large number of them are of the children of Abraham.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:06 pm

The elections cottages in the square are empty and alone, shuttered, and here are the first exit polling in the Swedish election, from SVT:

140 seats for Red-Greens
141 seats for Alliance
68 seats for Sweden Democrats

---------

Red-Green Bloc 39.4%
Social Democrats 26.2%
Left 9.0%
Greens 4.2%

Alliance Bloc 39.6%
Moderaterna 17.8%
Centepartiet 8.9%
Christian Democrats 7.4%
Liberals 5.5%

Sweden Democrats D 19.2%

others 1.8%

-------

If the exit polling holds, it appears that Sweden is poised to have a right-center government serving at the pleasure of the nativist far right.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby montgomery » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:16 pm

Probably all traceable back to the refugee crisis that is of America's making. Syria! Latest news is that U.S. planes are using White Phosphorus bombs which are outlawed, on civilians.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:20 pm

Christian Christensen notes, on Twitter, comments about the TV4 poll, which was released earlier than SVT's, that
This poll underestimated the Sweden Democrat results in 2014. Pollsters claim that they have adjusted their calculations, but should be taken with a grain of salt. SD voters tend not to answer, even in exit polls.

This earlier exit poll done by TV4 had the SD at 16.3% and Moderaterna at 18.4%.

The position of the Greens is perilous: if the exit polls hold, the Greens will just clear the 4% threshold for inclusion in the Riksdag.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:33 pm

Another tweet from Christian Christensen: "The Swedish election commission website (https://www.val.se/ ) has crashed due to heavy use. Counting not impacted." I swear, it wasn't me . . .
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:51 pm

With 90% of vote in the Sweden election in (not clear which parts of the country are still to report):

Red-Green Bloc 40.7%
Social Democrats 28.3% (-2.7% vs 2014)
Left 8.0% (+2.3%)
Greens 4.4% (-2.5%)

Alliance 40.2%
Moderaterna 19.7% (-3.5%)
Centerpartiet 8.6% (+2.4%)
Liberals 5.5% (+0.1%)
Christian Democrats 6.4% (+1.8%)

Sweden Democrats 17.7% (+4.7%)

Assuming results close to these, the early "screaming" headline - SD jumps to 2nd largest party in Sweden! - needs rewriting - and the news may well be the decline of the two main establishment parties, but not as much as expected, and the prospect of a weak right-center government that will be formed and sustained with SD support. And that the media overplayed the SD angle.

Christian Christensen agrees, on Twitter:
If this result holds (or even close), this is a rebuke to the international media about their clickbait over-hype about Sweden 'lurching' or being 'taken over' by the far right. Yes, it's a significant gain. But they've been at this point for 3 years.

(In fact, the SD peaked around 23% last summer.) And:
6 months ago: Earthquake as Far-Right Party Poised to Become Largest Party in Sweden!!!
1 month ago: Shock as Far-Right Party Poised to Become 2nd Largest Party in Sweden!!!
3 minutes ago: I wish we had paid attention to the other parties.

Well, even now, CNN is headlining, "A far-right party with roots in the neo-Nazi movement won a surge in support in Sweden's general elections Sunday, partial results show, as anti-migrant sentiment rises in the once-open Scandanavian country." And compounding this incompetence by repeatedly referring to "SVT" as "STV."
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby montgomery » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:50 pm

It sounds like CNN has it right, even though you don't like the way they are stating it.

SVT or STV, don't sweat the small stuff. It doesn't make you look any smarter.

If Social Democrats is your big issue, as we can now see it is, the much bigger worry is the Trump regime in America. That fits the label of the far right perfectly and the much larger threat to the world. Only those who continue to claim that the Nazis were leftists would argue that point.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:19 am

Final (almost) results:
Red-Green 144 seats
Alliance 143 seats
Sweden Democrats 62 seats

Moderaterna claim PM, call for Löfven to resign; SD challenges Moderaterna to follow through and change government by accepting SD support; Löfven not resigning, calls for government outside the blocs (with Centerpartiet?).
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