Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:56 am

Swedish election update, recent polling:

governing parties (Social Democrats and Greens): 36.4
Alliance - right-center opposition (Moderaterna, Liberals, Christian Dems, Center): 39.2
Sweden Democrats (my Swedish language teacher unhesitatingly describes them as the neo-Nazi party): 14.8
Left (former Left-Communists): 7.0
others: 2.6

vs. 2014, big drop for Greens; Alliance holding steady; Sweden Democrats have gained

- the Moderaterna continue to move closer and closer to far-right Sweden Democrats
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:43 am

Yascha Mounk writing in SLATE:
This, then, is the kind of politics you get when trust in liberal democracy hits rock bottom, mutually hostile anti-system parties proliferate, and ideologically coherent coalitions become impossible.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:37 am

a group of neo-Nazis, white nationalists, and anti-Semites kicked out of Sweden Democrats in 2015 has formed a new anti-immigration party in the country, Alternative for Sweden - mysteriously they are directing their efforts at Stockholm rather than Malmö or Göteborg . . .

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/al ... .orY4QzMWn

rising crime rates (especially the emergence of gangs and highly publicized grenade attacks) will be another major election issue; that said, Sweden's homicide rate is IIRC 1/5 that of the US

latest election polling

Government (40.3)
Social Democrats 28.2
Left 7.9
Greens 4.2

Opposition Alliance (40.6)
Moderaterna 23.1
Liberals 4.9
Christian Democrats 2.8
Center 9.8

Sweden Democrats 16.5
Other 2.7

(stunning recovery by Moderaterna with new leader and willingness to co-opt Sweden Democrats’ on immigration; 5-6 months ago the Moderaterna were in a swoon, down to something like 17-18%, and the Center party was up to 13-14%)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:58 pm

Jonah Shepp on Italan results:
Perhaps the key lesson in Italy’s election is that there, like nearly everywhere else in the Western world, voters are losing patience with a political class that they see as unable to deliver relief from the problems that ail them. Anger over the constant influx of migrants from North Africa and the lack of help from the EU was a big vote-getter for the League in particular, leading Berlusconi and other center-rightists to talk openly about once-unthinkable propositions like deporting the country’s 600,000 undocumented immigrants.

Anemic economic growth and still-staggering youth unemployment were other major contributors to Sunday’s discontented message from voters. Neither of the mainstream parties, right or left, has managed to solve these problems, while Brussels’ obsession with fiscal restraint has, if anything, exacerbated them.

Shepp doesn't see the result necessarily as right wing but, in my words, as another angry rejection of the status quo of Merkelism:
The message to mainstream technocrats in both Rome and Brussels, however, is crystal clear: Without real solutions to the migration crisis, economic stagnation, youth unemployment, and corruption, voters in Italy and elsewhere will continue to reject the political Establishment and flirt with populist novelties. Simply decrying the inexperience, bigotry, oddball theories, or politically incorrect rhetoric of these upstarts isn’t going to cut it.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... d-yet.html
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:32 pm

As to Shepp's thoughts, I read an excerpt from Canadian Marxist (non-orthodox flavor) Martin Kitchen (whose book on Speer I posted about in this subforum maybe two years ago) that is pertinent, though addressing the context of the interwar years:
A society which restricts its democratic practice to the functioning of the parliamentary system, and which denies the extension of such democratic forms to vital sections of society including the economic sector is ever prone, under certain conditions, to resort to fascism. The struggle against fascism can thus only be effective if it is also a struggle for the extension and deepening of democratic forces.

from Fascism (1976)

Or in current terms, the antidote to right-wing populist nationalism is not the Black Bloc, not Antifa events - and certainly not doubling down on the "mainstream technocracy," austerity for southern Europe, Macronism, etc.- but better, more extensive democracy addressing deep-seated problems people face in their daily lives and providing them ways to participate and hope.

For me, goofy as it can be, what Ted Cruz is now referring to as the angry, extreme left in the US is on a good track. The #resistance activity in the US, and particularly the activity of women in that movement, along with other groups like #never again or the WV teachers' strike, organizing around - not against - the Democratic party (which remains pretty much New Democratic/Third Way) - can be seen as positive.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:23 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:For me, goofy as it can be, what Ted Cruz is now referring to as the angry, extreme left in the US is on a good track.


A backlash was inevitable, the election of Trump snapped everyone out of their stupor.

The #resistance activity in the US, and particularly the activity of women in that movement, along with other groups like #never again or the WV teachers' strike, organizing around - not against - the Democratic party (which remains pretty much New Democratic/Third Way) - can be seen as positive.


I agree. Use the Democratic Party to get people elected and change things from within.

I’m not sure about the teacher’s strike, did this convince them to stop voting against their interests or will things go back to business as usual?
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:37 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I’m not sure about the teacher’s strike, did this convince them to stop voting against their interests or will things go back to business as usual?

There are indications that their political views are changing, if only indirectly so, via the case of their legislative hero Ojeda: "‘He’s JFK With Tattoos and a Bench Press’: Paratrooper Richard Ojeda is redefining what it means to be a Democrat in a deeply red state."
In the red Jeep on the way back to Logan, I asked Ojeda about his vote for Trump, a fact that in another state could be seen as disqualifying for a Democrat.

“I voted for him because it was about family and friends,” he said. “Nobody else was saying anything. Hillary Clinton was coming here blowing smoke up everybody’s ass. Hell, I wanted Bernie Sanders”—and he wasn’t the only one, obviously, as Sanders beat Clinton in the primaries in all 55 counties—“but once Bernie Sanders was screwed over by Hillary Clinton, by the way, you had no other option.”

He regrets his vote for Trump.

“Sure do,” he said.

Because?

“Because he hasn’t done {!#%@},” he said. “It’s been a friggin’ circus for a solid year.” Nothing’s changed. So many people in southern West Virginia are still poor and need jobs. The opioid epidemic rages unabated. “All he’s done,” Ojeda said, “is shown that he’s taking care of the daggone people he’s supposed to be getting rid of.”
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balsamo » Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:41 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:As to Shepp's thoughts, I read an excerpt from Canadian Marxist (non-orthodox flavor) Martin Kitchen (whose book on Speer I posted about in this subforum maybe two years ago) that is pertinent, though addressing the context of the interwar years:
A society which restricts its democratic practice to the functioning of the parliamentary system, and which denies the extension of such democratic forms to vital sections of society including the economic sector is ever prone, under certain conditions, to resort to fascism. The struggle against fascism can thus only be effective if it is also a struggle for the extension and deepening of democratic forces.

from Fascism (1976)

Or in current terms, the antidote to right-wing populist nationalism is not the Black Bloc, not Antifa events - and certainly not doubling down on the "mainstream technocracy," austerity for southern Europe, Macronism, etc.- but better, more extensive democracy addressing deep-seated problems people face in their daily lives and providing them ways to participate and hope.

For me, goofy as it can be, what Ted Cruz is now referring to as the angry, extreme left in the US is on a good track. The #resistance activity in the US, and particularly the activity of women in that movement, along with other groups like #never again or the WV teachers' strike, organizing around - not against - the Democratic party (which remains pretty much New Democratic/Third Way) - can be seen as positive.


Finally a good analysis, even through a few words...And it comes form a Canadian Marxist.
Indeed, Democracy has become limited to holding elections every now and then, is mostly dedicated to impose a full liberal economical system on people who reject it, imposing in the same time a single way to think, a political correctness inspired by Big Brother stating "Only We know what is best for us", to interfere in every single aspect of one people's live.

Those still in power should really start to listen to the so called "populist", another concept to denigrate everyone who is not fatalist about the shitty path we are on - not to say that we are dealing with smart people in those new parties - but they have to listen to them for what they represent.

Regarding the case of Italy, there is no easy way to put a political color on the 5 Stars movement, it flourishes mainly in the South of Italy - which is traditional on the left (after having been monarchist for a long time) while the Lega only rules on the North, which is mostly the driving motor of the Italian economy. Then comes what used to be the Papal Estate, the center, which well deserves its name politically.
The issue is that Italy is a concept that includes 3 Nations within one State, and it is actually failing for the same reason the EU is failing.

I go even further than Kitchen: The only way to fight this tragic reversal of values, is to fight for those democratic values who are disappearing fast: tolerance, open minds, promoting freedom whenever it is possible, give some responsibilities back to the people - make them feel their have the right of their opinion as anyone else - trust them if they make decisions that might seems "out of the box" - so they will trust the democratic system which is supposed to guarantee those rights.

Sounds like the end of a Disney movie, right? :P
Yes unfortunately. :|

I am reading a fascinating diary which is basically a must read:
It is called "Defying Hitler: A memoir" by Sebastian Haffner... It explains a lot of things, and i will be back to comment it after my reading.

PS: HAVE to post it incomplete, my computer is getting crazy...have to shut down...will edit later.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:08 am

>> I go even further than Kitchen: The only way to fight this tragic reversal of values, is to fight for those democratic values who are disappearing fast: tolerance, open minds, promoting freedom whenever it is possible, give some responsibilities back to the people - make them feel their have the right of their opinion as anyone else - trust them if they make decisions that might seems "out of the box" - so they will trust the democratic system which is supposed to guarantee those rights.

I think Kitchen would agree with what you write here - I sure do - based on the short excerpt from his book which I read. That said, I am very embarrassed that I didn't suss out that Kitchen is a Marxist when I read his book on Speer!
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:44 pm

Balsamo wrote:Those still in power should really start to listen to the so called "populist", another concept to denigrate everyone who is not fatalist about the shitty path we are on - not to say that we are dealing with smart people in those new parties - but they have to listen to them for what they represent.

Similarly, with - not denigration but - suppression of insurgents as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is doing against so-called Berniecrats in a number of races.

The Clintonistas will complain that many Berniecrats sat out '16 and are generally only weakly attached to the Democratic party. Of course, this is true - they see the party as unresponsive to working people and on economic issues, as wed to neoliberalism and the tech elites, etc; these insurgents want to put the party on a course differing to the one it has been on, from Clinton through Obama.

The tactics of the DCCC aside, and their diagnosis of the problem being what it is, however, Sanders himself and others in the progressive wing are not the source of party's difficulties (remember: Sanders campaigned in the '16 presidential election for Clinton and urged his supporters to vote for her).

The problem that the Democratic leadership faces is that a voting bloc of "their" voters simply won't be moved by shaming, denigration or coercive tactics.

This bloc showed in '16 that even their putative leader's entreaties won't move some of it members.

The party leadership can write these people off or try to find a way to make the party more hospitable and stronger for it. The party leadership needs to stop the warring, even if the insurgents want the war, by opening the party up to new and contending forces - and seeing what happens.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:26 pm

You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:11 am

Don’t make me come down there!!!!
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:05 pm

Early this morning I read this puzzling bit in a NYT article on the new and nearly euphoric optimism of French people:
It helps that France’s economy is finally growing more and that Mr. Macron has made good on promises ranging from overhauling the labor laws . . .

It took a WaPo update on the public workers' strikes against Macron's labor policies to restore my sense of reason and reality:
ailway workers and air traffic controllers led strikes across France on Thursday, opening a bitter showdown over labor overhauls sought by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The strikes — which disrupted travel across the country — signal a critical test for Macron as his government seeks to challenge France’s tightly controlled public-sector labor markets in attempts to stimulate a stagnant economy.

Macron, a 40-year-old former investment banker, faced only minimal resistance to the first wave of workplace changes last fall, and unemployment figures have already begun to drop.

But France’s powerful public sector, which employs more than 5 million people, is putting its foot down against the next stage: proposals to cut 120,000 public-sector jobs, hire more contract workers and slash budgets across the board.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Sergey_Romanov » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:39 am

Trump supporters/voters are idiots and/or sociopaths.

Those who "didn't know" what they were voting for are idiots, those who did - sociopaths.

Ojeda can go f himself.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:59 pm

whatever JFK with tattoos means, Ojeda strikes me as a combination of your two possibilities; I wish that the WV teachers had better heroes - but they don't - I wonder how WV teachers' voting broke down in the '16 election (WV was Trump's 2nd best state but on the other hand teachers generally vote Democratic)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:18 pm

You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:51 pm

Don’t make me come down there!!!!
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:05 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:a group of neo-Nazis, white nationalists, and anti-Semites kicked out of Sweden Democrats in 2015 has formed a new anti-immigration party in the country, Alternative for Sweden - mysteriously they are directing their efforts at Stockholm rather than Malmö or Göteborg . . .

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/al ... .orY4QzMWn

rising crime rates (especially the emergence of gangs and highly publicized grenade attacks) will be another major election issue; that said, Sweden's homicide rate is IIRC 1/5 that of the US

latest election polling

Government (40.3)
Social Democrats 28.2
Left 7.9
Greens 4.2

Opposition Alliance (40.6)
Moderaterna 23.1
Liberals 4.9
Christian Democrats 2.8
Center 9.8

Sweden Democrats 16.5
Other 2.7

(stunning recovery by Moderaterna with new leader and willingness to co-opt Sweden Democrats’ on immigration; 5-6 months ago the Moderaterna were in a swoon, down to something like 17-18%, and the Center party was up to 13-14%)


It sure beats having SD in official opposition.

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeff_36 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:12 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Early this morning I read this puzzling bit in a NYT article on the new and nearly euphoric optimism of French people:
It helps that France’s economy is finally growing more and that Mr. Macron has made good on promises ranging from overhauling the labor laws . . .

It took a WaPo update on the public workers' strikes against Macron's labor policies to restore my sense of reason and reality:
ailway workers and air traffic controllers led strikes across France on Thursday, opening a bitter showdown over labor overhauls sought by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The strikes — which disrupted travel across the country — signal a critical test for Macron as his government seeks to challenge France’s tightly controlled public-sector labor markets in attempts to stimulate a stagnant economy.

Macron, a 40-year-old former investment banker, faced only minimal resistance to the first wave of workplace changes last fall, and unemployment figures have already begun to drop.

But France’s powerful public sector, which employs more than 5 million people, is putting its foot down against the next stage: proposals to cut 120,000 public-sector jobs, hire more contract workers and slash budgets across the board.


Macron will be remembered as the President who dragged France kicking and screaming into the 21st century. Just as Pierre Mendes France did in the precious century. Whatever hardships lay ahead, remember that ths is better than Le Pen or Melenchon

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:19 pm

Orban in March, during the campaign: “We are fighting an enemy that is different from us. Not open, but hiding; not straightforward but crafty; not honest but base; does not believe in working but speculates with money; does not have its own homeland but feels it owns the whole world.”

Today Hungary voted on Orban's third term. Just a day ago NBC was, surprisingly, forecasting that Orban wouldn't win as big as last time and even saw “a slight chance that the fragmented opposition could foil an easy victory and strip Fidesz of its Parliament majority.” This idea struck me as far-fetched when I read it.

Reports with almost 90% of the vote in project Orban's Fidesz party to increase the number of its seats in Hungary's parliament from 111 to 134, giving him the 2/3 majority he needs to re-write Hungary's constitution.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:34 pm

latest polling for the fall elections in Sweden, from Poll of Polls:

Government (39% - down 1+ pt)
Social Democrats 27% (down 1+ pt)
Left 8% (n/c)
Greens 4% (n/c)

Opposition Alliance (38% - down 3 pts)
Moderaterna 21% (down 2+ pts)
Liberals 5% (n/c)
Christian Democrats 3% (n/c)
Center 9% (down 1 pt)

Sweden Democrats 19% (up 2.5 pts)
Other 2% (down almost 1 pt)

Undecided/? 2%

since last checkin, support has drained from Opposition Alliance to Sweden Democrats, on the verge of surpassing Moderaterna to be 2nd largest party and the governing coalition has lost a bit of ground as well

the most recent single poll, Demoskop, from this past week, has the Social Democrats tumbling to 25.9% (but the governing coalition at about 40%) with the Moderaterna 22.2% and Sweden Democrats 18.8%.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:21 am

not that I'm following the Swedish election but . . . latest Poll of Polls:

Government (39% n/c)
Social Democrats 27% (n/c)
Left 8% (n/c)
Greens 4% (n/c)

Opposition Alliance (41% +2 pts)
Moderaterna 23% (+2 pts)
Liberals 5% (n/c)
Christian Democrats 4% (+1 pt)
Center 9% (n/c)

Sweden Democrats 17% (-2 pts)
Other 2% (n/c)

Undecided/? 1% (-1 pt)

Alliance (opposition) has strengthened slightly at expense of Sweden Democrats.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:59 pm

Don’t make me come down there!!!!
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:00 pm

All things considered, it’s ironic that Czechs and Poles celebrate Hitler’s birthday. Let’s face it, skinheads aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed.
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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:04 pm

You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:26 pm

You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:11 pm

You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balmoral95 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:17 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:what an arrogant, disingenuous horse's ass: "Macron on 'special' relationship with Trump: We are both 'mavericks'"


Wonder how that sits with the original fake maverick, McCain :lol:

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:36 pm

Macron told FOX News that during this week's visit to Washington, he will speak about Syria and “I will advocate for militarism in front of the Congress.” How nice.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Balmoral95 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:56 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Macron told FOX News that during this week's visit to Washington, he will speak about Syria and “I will advocate for militarism in front of the Congress.” How nice.


Somebody ought to ask him how "militarism" worked out for them in 1940 and 1954.... :roll:

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:57 pm

Rofl
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

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Re: Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:35 pm

a friend sent me this link, which could fit here or in the Trump's thread; the piece tackles the recent books by Mounk and by Levitsky & Ziblatt, with the author's own reflections, which are decidedly pessimistic: "Trump Meets Political Science: The profession confronts a grim question: Are we witnessing the end of the world’s oldest democracy?"
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944


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