Populism and Nationalism in Europe Today

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Balsamo
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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 9:24 pm

Jeff:
Balsamo stated that there was a chance she would get 40% - one estimate stated that she might have only gotten 31%. This was a pathetic showing and it does not bode well for her going into the legislative elections.

and
Ok, moving on, I think that the size of Macron's victory (it is being called a landslide) bodes well for him in the legislative elections.


Not really if you paid attention to the studies i posted above.
First his result: Macron got elected with 20.750.000 vote...that is about 5 million votes less than president Chirac 15 years ago at a time when there were 6 million less registered voters.
Actually, only 43% of the registered voters voted for Macron while blank votes doubled (+100%)
Out of those 20750000 voters, 44 declared they voted for Macron to prevent MLP being elected, and NOT for his program.
Actually the "political project" of mister Macron motivated only 16% of the voters.

The most optimistic studies estimate that En Marche will seduce about 25-26% of the voters, and that is only theoretical as it will also depend on who are going to be the candidates in the 577 districts.

Another showed that 49% of the voters would be favorable to a cohabitation.

The French press today is more biased than ever, as if they keep on campaigning. They called this election a "referendum" for Europe, the opening of a new era, a revolution over the old-time political model, etc.
BS.
I am glad to read that some foreign media are not so naive.

As for MLP, i anticipated 12-13.000.000 votes, but it seems that she was kind of betrayed by her far-right (those in the South), as she even lost in cities controlled by her party like Bezier, . The Polls estimated she would win the PACA region with 50.5, she scored 44.5%.
Some commentators attribute the decline in the South to the fact that MLP did talk much about immigration, identity in favor of a more social economical discourse which pleased the people from the North (EU, Globalization, Euros) which proves that the bigger the Party gets, the more difficult it is to please all its components.
The South does not have the problems the North has. The North is in economic distress, poor, the people worry about the future of what remains of their factories, jobs, businesses. Unemployment is over the top.
The South is quite rich and therefore confronted with a extremely high immigration from the Mediterranean, some beautiful town like Beaucaire (a beautiful and preserved 18th century city, close to the famous Tarascon (Alfonse Daudet) has a chocking - sorry to say - muslim presence, which made me say when i visited the city 15 years ago, that soon it would be fully FN. It is now, MLP scored over 53%.
But in the South, they do not care about the Euro. They benefit form massive tourism paying in Euro. And big companies and factories closed to Marseille will not move. The issues are different, they just want less Arabs in their suburbs.
But that is not a program that will help to win the western part of France (very little immigration there), even less big cities (MLP got humiliated in Paris), worse for her, she missed Marseille with a mere 35%!!!
Even Hitler had been confronted with this dilemma in the early 1930's (the comparison stops here of course, actually Hitler got rid of his left base by killing Strasser and beheading the SA), but even after 2002, Jean Marie Le Pen faced a scission from the "moderate" side ( Maigret).

Actually, beyond the fact that she made a lot of mistake during her campaign, presented as a favorite during the whole 2016, she basically did little to boost her campaign in 2017, and declined all the way to the election of April, losing many from the left of the party to turn to Melanchon, there is the difficulties for such a party to de-demonize itself, condition to attract a majority, without losing the hard core based, essentially found in the South which was supporting her father Jean-Marie.

As i said in a previous Post, there is no doubt that many executives realized the problem, and are thinking to change the name Front National into a new movement (Union des Patriotes, for example) in order to distance itself from Jean-Marie fascist image, but there a risk to this decision, to see the far-right part of the Party - the "Ultra" who voted for Jean-Marie leave and create their own extremist party. It is to be noticed that her father was one of her worst enemy during the campaign.

This is going to be interesting to see if MLP will be able to handle this.
And there is hope that she could fail - which would give some credit to Jeff blunt forecast - if Melanchon can keep on stealing her left side. We have seen that Melanchon came first in in Marseille in the first round, while MLP failed to score big in the second round (35%), with an abstention of almost 30% and 7% of blank vote!

A lot of conclusions will have to be confirmed by the June elections, but they are going to be quite fascinating.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 9:40 pm

Also:
Balsamo wrote:the next poll that 61% DO NOT want Macron to have a majority at Congress in June.
Only 16% of the people who voted Macron said they vote for Macron's political program.

On Le Pen's future, as her debate performance seems to have hurt her in the presidential voting, so too it may have dented her armor - but there's another Le Pen no?
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 10:46 pm

Indeed, Marion, Jeff's 7, but quite a 9 among her political peers...lol... but not only is she too young (born in 1989!!), but she is too much like her grand-father, in a much more charming way, but nevertheless. She typically represents the Southern vote within the Party. And today, MLP chose to settle in the much more promising North. She is officially "resident" in Henin-Beaumont.
I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.

It might come as a surprise, but MLP is actually the moderate among the gang, supported and supporting Philippot, you know the "gay" one, and actually one of the few smart ones, who has come under critics from the Southern members.
It is quite funny to watch, but i still think that MLP position is not under threat.
Given the new political landscape, it is the Northern part of France that is probably going to elect the future FN (or Patriotes) representatives to Congress.

Anyway, if they are dumb enough, there is a possibility that they {!#%@} their movement, which would be a good news, so i am observing it closely.
I still think that Melanchon has a shot in June, if the press don't kill him.

The ideal scenario would be that Melanchon keeps those who voted for MLP for social economical reasons, and keep stealing some more, while the Ultras would chose to split from MLP movement (behind her niece?) dragging the racist,fascist all the way to the xenophobic...that would kill the phenomena "FN"
But i am not betting on it yet.

Then there is this 35% who did not vote or voted blank/null that will be decisive - and a factor of uncertainties and/or instability - and which is currently not taken seriously yet.

PS: some words on the debate, and MLP's performance.
There are a couple of french or french people expats where i live. I watched the broadcast "live" our time ( that is after the real time), and chatted with some "live". After the show, whether on tweeter or on internet media, the conclusion came up fast, "MLP had been agressive, and bad overall"
Well this is true, but it did not come up in my chat until the next evening (the night our time the next day after the "debate"), and all of a sudden there was this huge consensus even among the micro-circle i am talking about. And suddenly, i saw myself thinking about those psychological theories on conformism. You know the test about the lines on a board with only one subject to the test, while the "crowed" played their role stating that the shortest line was the longest, and a terrifying % of the subjects chosing to agree with the crowed.
And i asked myself if the social media, especially tweeter or facebook, and the internet could play a role in such phenomenon.

Full discosure: I really hesitated between history and psychology, to a point i did both during the first year, before realizing that it was impossible, but still i am a passionate amateur.

Anyway, the change of nature of the chat i had was astonishing.
The night of the show i was not the only one who had perceived the aggressive tactic of Macron. He stroke after 2 minutes, and never ceased, well i commented it after the show. He called him a liar like 8 times, treated her like a child (betise) another 8 times, he played very well, and escaped the traps by telling lies with such a conviction and a condescending tone, that very few noticed, and among those who did notice it, the majority just could not recall it two days later.
Within two days, the French TV held at least 4 special shows on the "MLP debacle" which normally would not have been allowed by the CSA, as the spirit is that the media, especially the "public one" (belonging to the State) has to guarantee neutrality... LOL...

Now, this is only a point of interest i have.
I am not saying she was good, she was not. She was bad.
But it is a fact that she has been turned into a "looser" within 24 hours to a point that there were not a single comment on "our golden monkey" performance, not one!

Of course, no one cares today. When i mention the subject, i am kindly remembered not to forget that the victims was a "bad one", that is "MLP", but then if this is possible, what if next time the victim is a "good one"?

In fine, i am glad to have left this continent, and to have the comfort of being an unconcerned observers...

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 10:52 pm

Balsamo wrote:I still think that Melanchon has a shot in June, if the press don't kill him.

Which they will, right?

Balsamo wrote:Then there is this 35% who did not vote or voted blank/null that will be decisive - and a factor of uncertainties and/or instability - and which is currently not taken seriously yet.

More in this camp than voting for NF in a binary election!

Balsamo wrote:Within two days, the French TV held at least 4 special shows on the "MLP debacle"

FWIW, the snap polls were devastating to her.

Balsamo wrote:But it is a fact that she has been turned into a "looser" within 24 hours to a point that there were not a single comment on "our golden monkey" performance, not one!

That's what I meant by a potential dent in her armor, but as you raise, it is a long way from having some dings to being tossed out.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 11:38 pm

Statmec:
FWIW, the snap polls were devastating to her.


Of course, but you are probably not aware that BFM TV (the political channel) did the same trick after the first debates, issuing that 35% found Macron the most convincing - there were the 5 principle candidates - just to state the next morning that it was an error and that the spectators had elected melanchon with 35% while Macron was at 16%.

But dent in her armor, yes...and sharp ones... ;)

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 09, 2017 3:46 am

Balsamo wrote:I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.


Correct. Marion is a social conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion, whereas Marine attempted to attract urban and millennial voters by expressing liberal opinions on those matters. Marion is also explicitly religious in a way that her aunt is really not.

Itneresting that you mentioned the north/south divide - that will be the fault line along which the FN will split IMO - Marine will go with the economic populists of the rust belt, while Marion will appeal to Peid Noir Irredentisim.

And that is why I was of the opinion that Marine Le pen would be finished after this loss - Marion`s circle will not be receptive to her proposed overhaul, and the knives will come out. But that`s just a guess.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Tue May 09, 2017 8:18 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.


Correct. Marion is a social conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion, whereas Marine attempted to attract urban and millennial voters by expressing liberal opinions on those matters. Marion is also explicitly religious in a way that her aunt is really not.

Itneresting that you mentioned the north/south divide - that will be the fault line along which the FN will split IMO - Marine will go with the economic populists of the rust belt, while Marion will appeal to Peid Noir Irredentisim.

And that is why I was of the opinion that Marine Le pen would be finished after this loss - Marion`s circle will not be receptive to her proposed overhaul, and the knives will come out. But that`s just a guess.



Well, Marion Marechal Le Pen is expected to announce her withdrawal of political life tomorrow.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 09, 2017 8:40 pm

from Breitbart, where I now get all my news, on Marion Le Pen's retirement from politics
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed May 10, 2017 12:46 am

Balsamo wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.


Correct. Marion is a social conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion, whereas Marine attempted to attract urban and millennial voters by expressing liberal opinions on those matters. Marion is also explicitly religious in a way that her aunt is really not.

Itneresting that you mentioned the north/south divide - that will be the fault line along which the FN will split IMO - Marine will go with the economic populists of the rust belt, while Marion will appeal to Peid Noir Irredentisim.

And that is why I was of the opinion that Marine Le pen would be finished after this loss - Marion`s circle will not be receptive to her proposed overhaul, and the knives will come out. But that`s just a guess.



Well, Marion Marechal Le Pen is expected to announce her withdrawal of political life tomorrow.


Really? Wow. That was unexpected. I mean it's not like she's some scandal plagued old peach.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Xcalibur » Wed May 10, 2017 4:56 am

"old peach"... had to love that...

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed May 10, 2017 5:34 am

Xcalibur wrote:"old peach"... had to love that...


The orange jokes were getting tired......

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed May 10, 2017 12:05 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:Really? Wow. That was unexpected. I mean it's not like she's some scandal plagued old peach.

Fewer bold predictions might be a good idea, just sayin'.

And here more on the hacking of the Macron campaign.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Tue May 16, 2017 8:44 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.


Correct. Marion is a social conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion, whereas Marine attempted to attract urban and millennial voters by expressing liberal opinions on those matters. Marion is also explicitly religious in a way that her aunt is really not.

Itneresting that you mentioned the north/south divide - that will be the fault line along which the FN will split IMO - Marine will go with the economic populists of the rust belt, while Marion will appeal to Peid Noir Irredentisim.

And that is why I was of the opinion that Marine Le pen would be finished after this loss - Marion`s circle will not be receptive to her proposed overhaul, and the knives will come out. But that`s just a guess.


Well, it seems you were even more right that you thought.
Now it is her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who announced that he'll launch another far right movement in 150 electoral districts with others from the "Front National old guards".
What a nice family!

I admit i did not see this one coming, so i salute your prescience. ;)

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed May 17, 2017 3:42 pm

Balsamo wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:I think that the Aunty and the Niece hold the future of the movement, if they don't split. But it is said that the relations between both are quite tense.


Correct. Marion is a social conservative on issues such as gay marriage and abortion, whereas Marine attempted to attract urban and millennial voters by expressing liberal opinions on those matters. Marion is also explicitly religious in a way that her aunt is really not.

Itneresting that you mentioned the north/south divide - that will be the fault line along which the FN will split IMO - Marine will go with the economic populists of the rust belt, while Marion will appeal to Peid Noir Irredentisim.

And that is why I was of the opinion that Marine Le pen would be finished after this loss - Marion`s circle will not be receptive to her proposed overhaul, and the knives will come out. But that`s just a guess.


Well, it seems you were even more right that you thought.
Now it is her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who announced that he'll launch another far right movement in 150 electoral districts with others from the "Front National old guards".
What a nice family!

I admit i did not see this one coming, so i salute your prescience. ;)


It was clear to see. The direction that MLP wanted the party to go in was far different than the roots it had planted among the Vichy crowd. I think that she is relived right now - she gets to change the name of the party and point to JMLP's new crowd as the real crazies.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 21, 2017 10:12 pm

Still, the FN in the polls is credited with 19-20% (+6.5 pts) vs 13.5% in 2012. That is currently above the traditional right (18%)
If one adds the 3% of DLF (who made an alliance with MLP during the presidential), the far right stands at 22-23%
On the other side, Melanchon - who is given elected in Marseille with 54% - is credited with 16% (+10 pts).
To this, one must add the other far left party (workers, communist party) 3%, on and have 19%

That gives the extremes still at 41-42%,

Currently Macron is given 32%
The republican right 18%
The socialist Party 6%
the Green party 3%

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:32 am

. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:22 am

. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:32 pm

Well, abstention is about to set a new record:at midday 19.24%, versus 21.06% in 2012, and 22.56% in 2007...
Despite all the efforts by the media to present those "new political times" as a popular wave, a peaceful political revolution around the "NEW LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD" (after Macron's reaction to Trump decision to leave the treaty of Paris), the trend of people taking their distance with the democratic process is still down.
Whatever landslide macron will get, it would be a landslide with fewer voters than ever in the French democracy. 2007 and 2012 have already historically low participation with respectively 60% and 56%. ( the numbers were 62% in 2002, 70% in 1997, 68% in 1993, 68% in 1988, a record of 78% in 1986, 75% in 1981...)

Abstention is actually an important factor as to qualify for the second round a candidate has to get 12.5% of the registered electors, so abstention is 50%, the candidate would have to get 25% to pass (or be in the two first of course).

To put the coming results into perspective, here were - respectively the "first round" and "second round" results of the last election in 2012:
PS (Socialist Party / Presidential Majority) : 39,86% and 49.93% 331 seats
Union de la Droite (actual Les Republicains + UDI) 34.66% and 44.12% 229 seats
Front national (FN) 13.6% and 3.66% 3 seats
Melanchon (Front de Gauche/Insoumis) 6.9% and 1.8% 10 seats
Bayrou (actual Modem/ now allied to Macron ) 1.77% and 0.49% 2 seats


UPDATE: Participation could fall under the 50% mark...that would be unprecedented! It now stands at 40.75% with only three hours to go.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:15 pm

France24 says that Macron is "on course for a huge majority of between 380 and 430 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly" in the 2nd round. Mélenchon appears to be behind the Republicans (by a lot) and FN (by a little) but slightly ahead of the Socialists (mon dieu!). But the June election seems unlikely to yield a never seen before situation, that is a Parliament without clear majority, at least according to France24. Our speculation about cohabitation and Macron's weak legislative hand may have been interesting speculation.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:26 am

Rather than struggling in parliament, Macron, according to France24, is likely to wind up with "the largest parliamentary majority for a single party in France since the end of World War II." Humiliation for Socialists, and a weak FN performance, falling well short of the high teens expected (likely to win 5 seats).
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:07 pm

Well i would say that it is a weak performance for democracy: abstention reached an unprecedented 51.29%.
With only 48.71% of the people having voted, the concept of landslide is inappropriate. Only 6.4 million votes for the presidential majority will make this parliament the least representative ever. 400+ deputies elected by 15.8% of the registered voters will spell trouble in the months to come.

Compared with the French population, the perspective is even more scary: 23 millions voters out of 67.000.000, out of those 23 million, 6.4 voted for the president's party, that is about 10% of the population.

The problem is that the electoral system was not meant to work with such an abstention. It has lead to funny results, some were eliminated with 24.9% of the vote and other qualified with 18%.

With such a low political legitimacy, opposition to the new government, and its reforms - some highly unpopular - will have to take place in the streets.

this is really a bad day for democracy!

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:59 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Rather than struggling in parliament, Macron, according to France24, is likely to wind up with "the largest parliamentary majority for a single party in France since the end of World War II." Humiliation for Socialists, and a weak FN performance, falling well short of the high teens expected (likely to win 5 seats).


Just like I predicted. Having the Presidency gave Macron a good deal of momentum.

How he fares will be another matter, as I have my questions on his character and ideals. However, the splintering of the FN is good news. All seems to be normal in France again.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:04 am

I misunderstood this: "The Republicans will form a cohabitation with Macron, and Baroin will put Macron in a headlock and tell him exactly what to do if he wants to keep the coalition intact. Then (and this is only a guess), he will beat Macron in 2022."
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:11 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:I misunderstood this: "The Republicans will form a cohabitation with Macron, and Baroin will put Macron in a headlock and tell him exactly what to do if he wants to keep the coalition intact. Then (and this is only a guess), he will beat Macron in 2022."


Ok, my memory does not serve me well. I still predicted that Macron would do better than the FN in the legislative elections though.

And I am still guessing that Baroin will beat Macron in 2022 due to backlash against the latters reforms.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:03 am

NY Times' assessment. What is curious to me is that voters could have turned out for Mélenchon (or the FN or any other opposition party) but didn't. France Unsubmissive dropped off as much as did the FN.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:05 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:NY Times' assessment. What is curious to me is that voters could have turned out for Mélenchon (or the FN or any other opposition party) but didn't. France Unsubmissive dropped off as much as did the FN.


We will see that in September...
This time France chose to show its"unsubmissiveness" by almost boycotting this election, a follow-up of the historically high abstention during the presidential election.
Of course by doing this, the people play a very dangerous game. With a majority of 2/3, Macron could change the Constitution for whatever pleases him.

By midday, participation is only 17.5%, new record, almost ridiculous, lower than the 19.5% two weeks ago (when 51.7% chose NOT to vote).
As if the movement "Not Le pen nor Macron" had become "Not anyone of them"...a new movement could emerge "Not in my Name"...
This is really sad and scary to see the people giving up what could be considered as their last true right!
Really don't know what will come out of this mess. Too much unprecedented.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:33 pm

France24:
According to an Ipsos poll, Macron’s La République en Marche (LREM) party is expected to take 319 of 577 seats in the lower-house National Assembly, securing an absolute majority along with its centrist ally, MoDem, which is estimated to take 42 seats for a total of 361.

The conservatives are expected to win 126 seats, the former ruling Socialist Party 46 seats, the far-left 26 seats and the far-right eight seats in a new-look legislature.

Turn-out extremely low.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:41 pm

"Turn-out extremely low" indeed with 57% who did not vote.
following with one eye only the result - i have an essay to give out tomorrow, i was quite shocked to see that the FN performed better than i had expected.
They were FN candidates present in like over 100 districts, most of them lost, of course, as it should be, but the loss were quite moderate in historical standards, most lost in a 55-45 margin, the worst made scores like MLP at the presidential that is 33-35%, and 8 passed through and won in a election whose rules are meant to exclude those extreme parties. Marine Le Pen scored big winning with 58% (66% in the city of Henin-Beaumont), +10 points vs 2012. She finally got elected after a couple of electoral losses. Her "husband" also got elected with a good margin...along with 6 others...Not such a bad day as it is the first time that any FN candidate is elected with an absolute majority...Marion Marechal Le Pen was elected thanks to the presence of two other candidates - something that had been impossible with that level of abstention - and 42%...In this case, even with the low level of participation, that 8 FN candidates managed to get over 50% of the vote is sadly historical. It seems that tumors have become cancer in some parts of the French body.
Nicolas Dupont.Aignant who allied with MLP during the presidential saved the seat he holds for 20 years. It was forecasted he would lose.

"La France insoumise" has done well, in my opinion, given the circumstances. They'll be able to put up a parliamentary group, and that is important for future visibility.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:06 pm

from Macron's statement at commemoration of Vel d'Hiv roundup (news item here):
Si je suis ici parmi vous en ce jour sombre et solennel, c’est en effet pour que se perpétue le fil tendu en 1995 par Jacques CHIRAC, à qui je veux tout particulièrement rendre hommage aujourd’hui, maintenu par Dominique DE VILLEPIN en 2005, Nicolas SARKOZY et François FILLON en 2007, poursuivi enfin par François HOLLANDE en 2012.

Récemment encore, ce que nous croyons établi par les autorités de la République sans distinction partisane, avéré par tous les historiens, confirmé par la conscience nationale s’est trouvé contesté par des responsables politiques français prêts à faire reculer la vérité. C’est faire beaucoup d’honneur à ces faussaires que de leur répondre, mais se taire serait pire, ce serait être complice.

Alors oui, je le redis ici, c’est bien la France qui organisa la rafle puis la déportation et, donc, pour presque tous, la mort des 13.152 personnes de confession juive arrachés les 16 et 17 juillet 1942 à leurs domiciles, dont plus de 8.000 furent menés au Vel d’Hiv avant d’être déportés à Auschwitz. Parmi elles, 4.115 enfants de 2 à 16 ans, dont aujourd’hui nous honorons plus particulièrement la mémoire et pour lesquels, je souhaiterais que nous fassions silence. . . .

Chaque synagogue, chaque mosquée, chaque église, chaque temple, chaque cimetière profané ou vandalisé doit nous alerter.

Théorie du complot planétaire, fantasmes sur la finance mondiale, iconographie insidieuse, angoisse identitaire mobilisant les clichés les plus toxiques, tout cela se diffuse à grande vitesse et atteint des esprits crédules ou perméables.

Le racisme et l’antisémitisme disposent pour réaliser leur travail de sape de moyens inédits de propagande. Les réseaux sociaux en sont les grands pourvoyeurs et nous n’avons pas encore pris la mesure de leur influence à cet égard. . . .

http://www.elysee.fr/declarations/artic ... epublique/
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:09 pm

LOL...
The more you repeat the same crap, the more it becomes true. Well that must be the logic, anyway...
Sorry but i just cannot stand those kind of speech since a long time... pure communication as usual, full of short cuts, blatant lies, all on a condescending as well as threatening tone... I guess we gotta get used to it.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:32 pm

Balsamo wrote:The more you repeat the same crap, the more it becomes true.

Excuse me? It's a news item, of interest.
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:38 pm

I mean the content of the president "Jupiter" Macron speech, not you forwarding the news... ;)
The "you" here should be understood as "one", that is the French presidents...all referring to the speech of president Chirac which was not saying the same thing; Macron's is the same as Hollande's, just in a more a aggressive way...

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:54 pm

Ah, it was the "you" that threw me, since Macron isn't here. And "one" didn't give the speech: Macron did.

I linked to his whole talk but excerpted 3 parts I thought most relevant to this forum: 1) where he spoke about "s’est trouvé contesté par des responsables politiques français prêts à faire reculer la vérité"; 2) his reply to Le Pen that "c’est bien la France qui organisa la rafle puis la déportation"; and 3) his linking denial to "Théorie du complot planétaire, fantasmes sur la finance mondiale, iconographie insidieuse, angoisse identitaire mobilisant les clichés les plus toxiques."
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:00 am

Macron's current position, in the view of the NY Times: "tenuous" victory now marked by "a rapid and nearly unequaled drop in the polls"
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Fri Aug 18, 2017 12:58 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Macron's current position, in the view of the NY Times: "tenuous" victory now marked by "a rapid and nearly unequaled drop in the polls"


It was quite an obvious prospect.
As there are not even a credible political opposition in the parliament, as i said the opposition would have to take place in the street.
Note that the so-called "centrist" passed one measure that - in my opinion - was determinant in his today's situation: profiting from the vacations, he passed a law removing "stock portfolios" and "financial wealth" from the famous "wealth tax" (impot sur la fortune). So if you own a small cottage in the Isle of Re (very expensive)- that you would have inherited from your parents, you'll pay the taxe. But if you own billions of stocks, not anymore.

Centrist my ass, he just made a present to those who brought him to power.

His parliamentary majority, half composed by selected "well off" from the civil society, are starting not wanting to play by the book. This majority is by the way the wealthiest France has ever known. There is civil society and civil society, for Macron it seems to start with above 250.000 euros annual revenues to be eligible to it.
In a speech during a "start up" conference, a kind of economical forum, he opposed "people who are nothing versus people who succeed"

You'll see in September how his reform of the "work code" will be welcomed, and how "the people who are nothing" looks like when they are angry.
They took the Bastille, once-

Strangely enough, i think this "political experiment" will be as much as a failure as the "Trump one". The latest being a good news though.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:27 am

It could be said that the average Frenchman today is confronted by clowns on his left,and jokers on his right, all the while he is stuck in the middle with Macron.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:08 am

LOL (although for Macron the lyrics need a tweak - jokers on his far right, stuck to the right with Macron . . . )
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:45 am

Jeff_36 wrote:It could be said that the average Frenchman today is confronted by clowns on his left,and jokers on his right, all the while he is stuck in the middle with Macron.


Except that Macron is not "the middle".
He represents an attempt to "make politic" the American way (or the anglo-saxon way), that is to get over the traditional european political and ideological divides which had become symbolic among the ruling class (left or right = same policies) and to force a allegiance to the Liberal System promoted by the EU.

It was doom to fail because the fact that the politicians lost their political ideology does not mean that the people lost theirs, and the main problem is that the people's ideology is no longer represented politically except at the extreme, that is Melanchon or Le Pen. Those not tempted by these extremes, are just taking their distance with Politics (and did not vote).

Contrary to what has been said or sold in the media, Macron has never been "High". The Macronmania was an invention.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:34 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:LOL (although for Macron the lyrics need a tweak - jokers on his far right, stuck to the right with Macron . . . )


Macron is too socially liberal to be a total creature of the right. Recall that he was savaged by the mainstream right for his comment of Algeria. However, economically he is most assuredly right-wing in every way. I have mixed feelings on the man but I hope his loss will not be Le Pen or Melenchon's gain.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:34 pm

For sure, "to the right" of center, especially on economics
. . . I mean Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason—Coleridge, for instance, would let go by a fine isolated verisimilitude caught from the Penetralium of mystery, from being incapable of remaining content with half-knowledge. - John Keats, 1817


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