It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:57 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:early balloting is from heavily Dem Allegheny Cty - so despite early margin in favor of Lamb, NY Times is projecting Lamb 52% chance of winning and margin of just 0.4% (five minutes ago, Times had it tossup)


CNN has it 58-40... "too close to call"...

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:59 am

yeah NYT now has 54% of Saccone victory, with margin of victory 0.8% ({!#%@} all)
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:03 am

Rachel Maddow is on right now looking like a total idiot as she expresses (fake?) amazement and confusion about Tillerson's firing . . . WTF?!?!? please don't tell me that the liberals will now be trying to prop up Tillerson as somehow worthy and sane
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:05 am

looking terrible for Democrats: NYT projects 64% chance that Saccone will win, with margin of victory 2.6%
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:05 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Rachel Maddow is on right now looking like a total idiot as she expresses (fake?) amazement and confusion about Tillerson's firing . . . WTF?!?!? please don't tell me that the liberals will now be trying to prop up Tillerson as somehow worthy and sane



Was worried that might be part of this: TREx as the fallen hero and voice of reason..... Barf-making.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:07 am

Since Lamb is kind of a Moulton/Ossof type, Dems may need to re-think this candidate profile (the militant moderate)?

I think Lamb is slightly underperforming in Democratic Allegheny Cty . . . Saccone holding his own in the Republican areas.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:09 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Since Lamb is kind of a Moulton/Ossof type, Dems may need to re-think this candidate profile (the militant moderate)?

I think Lamb is slightly underperforming in Democratic Allegheny Cty . . . Saccone holding his own in the Republican areas.


Yup.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:12 am

OK that does it. I am going to stop following the damned NY Times with their meters and crap: they are now saying Lamb has edge, 52% chance of winning, margin 0.3%. But they're not explaining these swings, so to hell with them.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:16 am

@realFarkingIdjit:
It was my great honor to deliver a message at the Marine Core Air Station Miramar to our GREAT U.S. Military, straight from the heart of the American People: We support you, we thank you, we love you - and we will always have your back!

Semper Fido!
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:17 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:OK that does it. I am going to stop following the damned NY Times with their meters and crap: they are now saying Lamb has edge, 52% chance of winning, margin 0.3%. But they're not explaining these swings, so to hell with them.


CNN not predicting an outcome... yet but shifts every couple mins suggest a rapid tightening with Lamb still ahead...

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:21 am

I peeked at the {!#%@} needle again and NYT has 52% chance Lamb wins, margin 0.3%. Every single reporting precinct has moved from red to blue in terms of margin.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:27 am

CNN with the {!#%@} adverts every 2 minutes...GRRRRRR

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:28 am

andrew kaczynski on the NY Times needles:
Hello darkness my old friend I've come to talk with you again
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:29 am

NY Times needles: Lamb 54% chance of winning, margin 0.6%
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:29 am

AAAAARH: Santorum.....

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:33 am

My wife just turned CNN on . . . yup Santorum, and Jason Miller, great commentary LOL
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:39 am

from CNN website, note on Saccone headquarters:
The crowd at the country club is just milling around and not really seeing the results because the two TVs are playing Fox News and while the banner has the results, they’re hardly talking about it on air.


NY Times says it is not getting precinct-level results from Westmoreland Cty, without which projections are not possible, and thus has stopped projecting and removed the needles
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:49 am

95% of vote reported, Lamb leads by just 928 votes - Saccone could win as most votes left to come in are from Republican counties
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:57 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:94% of vote reported, Lamb leads by just 700 votes -Lamb should lose as most votes left to come in are from Republican counties


Woof reporting 3800 absentee ballots count underway but apparently not to be reported until count finished...

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:58 am

LOL {!#%@} all!
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:01 am

margin up to 1,100
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:01 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:LOL {!#%@} all!


LMAO CNN: "great machines"....

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:06 am

We switched back to MSNBC where Rachel continued embarrassing herself. Right now they won't call it, they keep pointing to Washington Cty, heavily Republican, and (maybe) hinting that there's enough vote out there for Saccone to pull it out.

96% of vote in: 1200 vote lead for Lamb.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:09 am

Ron Klain is saying that there exist 112 congressional districts across the country that are better for Democrats than PA-18. He doesn't seem to have a feeling who will win tonight but is saying that a GOP +20 district has gone to basically dead even.
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:12 am

MSNBC: a bit less than 9000 uncounted votes, margin now Lamb +918
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:15 am

CNN: advert again... Santorum has that "everything I said tonight is proving to be bs" look

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:17 am

MSNBC: 3000 votes left in Allegheny county (Lamb should get about 1800 of these); 6000 from Washington/Westmoreland (about 2700 for Lamb) - that would project out to 4500 Lamb and 4500 Saccone . . . ???

Which would leave the absentee ballots FSS!
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:18 am

Yeah.... absentee counter dude said it'll be done tonight

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:23 am

97% in, Lamb +540 - you gotta think, given what seems to be outstanding, that Saccone will win
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:25 am

98% in, Lamb +585
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:26 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:97% in, Lamb +540 - you gotta think, given what seems to be outstanding, that Saccone will win


it would seem, prticularly if the majority of absentee ballots emanate from serving military types

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:28 am

this should be sobering for Blue Wave enthusiasts
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:29 am

Balmoral95 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:97% in, Lamb +540 - you gotta think, given what seems to be outstanding, that Saccone will win


it would seem, prticularly if the majority of absentee ballots emanate from serving military types

MSNBC just said that the pattern is for absentee ballots to break slightly pro-Democratic ??? - OTOH MSNBC just learned about the absentee ballots and knows of only 1400!!

Kacey Hunt just reported that the crowd at Lamb headquarters boos every time Santorum comes on "a rival network" LOL
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:36 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Balmoral95 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:97% in, Lamb +540 - you gotta think, given what seems to be outstanding, that Saccone will win


it would seem, prticularly if the majority of absentee ballots emanate from serving military types

MSNBC just said that the pattern is for absentee ballots to break slightly pro-Democratic ??? - OTOH MSNBC just learned about the absentee ballots and knows of only 1400!!

Kacey Hunt just reported that the crowd at Lamb headquarters boos every time Santorum comes on "a rival network" LOL


Gloria Borger clearly can barely contain her disdain for Santorum, LMAO

CNN just reporting they're waiting on absentee count.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:37 am

MSNBC: Lamb's lead is 700 votes

3000 votes left in Washington Cty, 700 in Westmoreland - maybe <1000 votes left in Allegheny Cty, so you'd expect Saccone to edge out Lamb in today's voting

However . . .

More than half of the absentee ballots are from Allegheny Cty, which accounted for only 40% of the district vote
2016: Hillary Clinton won absentee ballots but lost the overall vote
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:39 am

Allegheny and Westmoreland counties will count absentee ballots tonight - by midnight; Greene and Washington counties won't count their absentee ballots tonight (Greene is a tiny county) - 7000 total absentee ballots according to MSNBC
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:43 am

state law in PA mandates a recount if result is within 0.5%
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:44 am

Election commissioner predicts total count finish at 11:15...

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:46 am

Lawrence O'Donnell says that tomorrow morning's tweet will either be a slap at Saccone or claim of full credit for DJT . . .

Lamb now +755
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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:51 am

a White House official is already declaring victory: “this isn’t a blowout — for now, we’ll happily take it,” which is a strange view of a +20 GOP district

MSNBC: Allegheny is all in; Washington Cty has 9 countries left to report, the ballots are in transit - 55-57% should break for Saccone - might be enough for Saccone to close the gap . . . which leaves us with the absentee ballots
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