It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Where no two people are likely to agree.
User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:04 pm

To Bump's list of 13 Trump accusers above, we must add Samantha Holvey who competed in the 2006 Miss USA Pageant and corroborated Trump's bragging to Howard Stern about locker-room inspections of contestants in his pageants.

To refute the now-14 accusers, Huckchuckle sent a list of exonerating witnesses to ThinkProgress late night. The list numbered just three names - for 14 accusers. One person on the list is the notorious liar mentioned already in Bump's article (above). The other two were beauty pageant contestants - one in a different 2006 pageant (Miss Teen USA, held in a different city and in a different month to the Miss USA pageant in which Holvery participated ) and one a contestant in the 2005 Miss USA Pageant, also not the same pageant in which Holvey competed and which she described. Essentially these two "witnesses" seem to add to the discussion that sometimes Trump did not do things which he did on other occasions.

One almost feels sorry for Huckchuckle and her dreary saggy frown, slurred dismissals, and pathetic rejoinders. Almost. But no cigar.

(from ThinkProgress: https://thinkprogress.org/eyewitnesses- ... 792f64364/)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:25 pm

"Roy Moore Rides A Horse To The Polls In Alabama Special Election (VIDEO)"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozTaaTCRF_M

I see by your outfit
That you are a cowboy
I see by your outfit
You are a cowboy too
We see by our outfits
That we are both cowboys
If you get an outfit
You can be a cowboy too
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:00 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Trump is worried about Gillbrand:
Lightweight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a total flunky for Chuck Schumer and someone who would come to my office “begging” for campaign contributions not so long ago (and would do anything for them), is now in the ring fighting against Trump. Very disloyal to Bill & Crooked-USED!

But . . . "would do anything for them"?!?!? This man is a sick, sick puppy. Throw the bum out.

Huckchuckle explained that Trump's tweet about Gillibrand was aimed at the corruption that characterizes the American political system:

“I think that the president is very obvious. This is the same sentiment the president has expressed many times before when he has exposed the corruption of the entire political system. . . . He’s not alleging anything. He’s talking about the way that our system functions as it is. . . .”

I am so relieved because somehow it sounded like a slut-shaming cheap shot. When in fact, we now know, it was a proposal for reform and a plea for higher ethical standards in politics.

Don't know how I missed this. It did seem a trifle odd that Trump had zeroed in on the only female Senator to call for his resignation in the past few days, but, well, SHS has cleared that up.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has More Than 8K Posts
Posts: 8193
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:28 pm

I’m just thankful that Sanders cleared that up for us. She is like the Oracle of Delphi regarding Trumpspeak.
When my son had his barmitzvah, and his wedding, there was no family whatsoever -that’s the way the second and third generation feel the Holocaust, they miss their family. My son hasn’t experienced a family life –having uncles, aunts, grandmothers, grandfathers. There is just that hole.
Edith Baneth
Savage Continent

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:41 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I’m just thankful that Sanders cleared that up for us. She is like the Oracle of Delphi regarding Trumpspeak.

Yeah, she's almost this articulate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVp9rKF3hag
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:21 pm

Quinnipiac reports that its poll respondents most often use the word idiot to describe Trump.

In November's NYC mayoral voting:

- "Melania Trump did not sign the envelope that contained her completed absentee ballot before she sent it in, as is required by the New York City Board of Elections, BOE spokeswoman Valerie Vasquez said." - ballot disallowed

- "Ivanka Trump . . . didn't mail her absentee ballot in until Election Day, Nov. 7, Vasquez said, and it didn't arrive in time to be counted." - ballot disallowed

- "the president filled out his date of birth incorrectly on his application for an absentee ballot. Trump, who was born on June 14, 1946, said on the application that his birthday was July 14, 1946 . . ." - clearly fraudulent activity did not apparently result in Trump's being locked up

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politi ... ut-n828861
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has More Than 8K Posts
Posts: 8193
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:36 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeffk 1970 wrote:I’m just thankful that Sanders cleared that up for us. She is like the Oracle of Delphi regarding Trumpspeak.

Yeah, she's almost this articulate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVp9rKF3hag



That’s just emulating the boss, the little suck up.

Seriously, need to take some time and watch Trainspotting...
When my son had his barmitzvah, and his wedding, there was no family whatsoever -that’s the way the second and third generation feel the Holocaust, they miss their family. My son hasn’t experienced a family life –having uncles, aunts, grandmothers, grandfathers. There is just that hole.
Edith Baneth
Savage Continent

User avatar
Jeffk 1970
Has More Than 8K Posts
Posts: 8193
Joined: Tue May 31, 2016 3:00 am

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:39 pm

Damn, not on Netflix or Prime...
When my son had his barmitzvah, and his wedding, there was no family whatsoever -that’s the way the second and third generation feel the Holocaust, they miss their family. My son hasn’t experienced a family life –having uncles, aunts, grandmothers, grandfathers. There is just that hole.
Edith Baneth
Savage Continent

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:00 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:I’m just thankful that Sanders cleared that up for us. She is like the Oracle of Delphi regarding Trumpspeak.

TPM is less convinced than we are: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/t ... ing-ethics ;)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:06 pm

MSNBC is reporting that Alabama exit polling shows that a comfortable majority of those polled say that the sexual misconduct charges against Moore didn't figure significantly in their vote.

I think Bannon's play here is to go all in on the most repugnant, appalling candidate possible - to prove he can win with the worst critter he can find, to open the Overton window gaping wide, and to set up the far right for a parade of sewer creatures running for office.

The early exit polling is confirming, for tonight, this strategy. But in 2018, across the country? Is the country ultimately going to accept rule by a far-right army of Christian ayatollahs and white nationalists?
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:12 pm

Jeffk 1970 wrote:Damn, not on Netflix or Prime...

That flick is really worth seeing. Here's another gem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci82yWg-9Q0
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:06 am

. . . a bit of a shocker on exit polling in Alabama: 48% approve Trump's job performance, 48% disapprove . . . (2016 popular vote: Trump 62%, Clinton 34%)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 13887
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: bobbo da existential pragmatist

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:29 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote: I think Bannon's play here is to go all in on the most repugnant, appalling candidate possible - to prove he can win with the worst critter he can find,......

Nothing to prove, he ALREADY did that.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:43 am

ROFL . . . when you're mind is blown and your world crumbles before your eyes . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFYRkzznsc0
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

Balmoral95
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1744
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:45 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:ROFL . . . when you're mind is blown and your world crumbles before your eyes . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFYRkzznsc0


Saw that.... Jesus wept.... :shock: :shock: :shock:

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 13887
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am
Custom Title: bobbo da existential pragmatist

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:47 am

Wow. Dumb as a sack of hammers does come to mind.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:32 am

Cornell Belcher, looking at the early numbers (turnout, not exit polling) predicts a 1 point victory for Doug Jones.

OTOH, whilst reporting heavy black turnout (at 30%) and Obama-level %'s for Jones among black voters, MSNBC is saying that their exit polling shows just 27% of whites voting for Jones - and a majority of college-educated whites (Jones' target group, Belcher's bellwether) breaking for Moore (abortion?).

Many analysts see benefits to Democrats with any outcome in Alabama - and, without disputing that, I think the benefits of stopping Trump/Bannon on their home turf - and blunting Bannon's push to keep driving the most repellent of sewer creatures into office - far outweigh those of a Moore-albatross around the GOP's neck.

The MSNBC exit polling - exit polls are not reliable but tend to skew Democratic - would seem, contra Belcher, to give Bannon another victory and talking point, even though Alabama should not have been close - and it would not have been for a McConnell Republican.

Yet . . . Nate Silver: "CNN is out with its exit poll, which shows a very, very close top line — Moore at 49 or 50 percent of the vote, and Jones at 48 or 49 percent." Which suggests almost the exact reverse of what Belcher predicted.

But . . . Harry Enten: "I went into the evening thinking that Moore was a slight favorite. Based upon the latest returns, I wish I had said Jones was the slight favorite. That’s based off the scattered returns so far and looking at my baselines."

The numbers don't look the same to me as to Enten: Moore seems to be doing quite well in the red counties.

The Upshot is reporting that whilst Moore is beating his % benchmarks in red counties, turnout is off in those counties. Their nifty graph just swung to 80% chance for a Jones win (then dipped to 72% as I finished writing this!). Moore headquarters is waiting for Bannon to arrive and already jubilant. Breitbart's coverage is lackluster but touting Bannon's victory celebration at Moore headquarters. CNN is discussing future steps in the Senate assuming a Moore win. Not sure why The Upshot is the lone dissenter . . .
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

Balmoral95
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1744
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:38 am

I'm thinking Moore by 2 points when all is in.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:52 am

CNN is talking as if Moore has won. The Upshot (Nate Cohn) is still projecting Jones - based on low turnout in "Moore" counties, high turnout in black belt and among African American voters. Cohn projects about 3% margin for Jones (!) and 70% chance for Jones win (!).
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:54 am

Harry Enten: "I’ll note, for what it’s worth, that the exit poll adjustment based on actual votes has Jones winning by between 2 and 3 percentage points."

Nate Cohn, correcting (so to speak) what his models project: "My guess: we won't be confident until we get one of these big metropolitan counties to wrap up. Until then, metro turnout and extent of Jones strength a mystery. But underlying fact is that Jones is, on average, doing what he needs so far. . . . And my guess is that once a big metro county wraps up, that the CI will tighten up *and* the needle will move. But I really urge people to take in the confidence interval here and be prepared for it going either way."

Raw vote is tightening - it's fallen to 1.4% margin for Moore with 60% of the vote in, down from 8%, as the Democratic numbers come in.

Santorum is falling quiet on CNN (we cannot abide Maddow, so we switched to CNN until Lawrence O'Donnell comes on . . . ).
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeff_36
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4606
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:04 am

Has anyone ever really stopped and realized that Roy Moore is basically Matthew McConaughey's character from Dazed and Confused?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnlv1wd13fY
Last edited by Jeff_36 on Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:05 am

with 81% in, Moore 49.6%, Jones 48.9% - 4 big Jones areas with a lot of votes to come in (half of Jefferson County, Mobile County and Montgomery County, Dallas Count) . . . very few updates on Breitbart and pretty worthless . . . but Cohn is reporting that Moore's turnout drop-off is less than he thought an hour ago . . . ugh . . . as I've typed this, we are up to 85% of the vote in, 49.5% Moore / 49.0% Jones
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeff_36
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4606
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:09 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:with 81% in, Moore 49.6%, Jones 48.9% - 4 big Jones areas with a lot of votes to come in (half of Jefferson County, Mobile County and Montgomery County, Dallas Count) . . . but Cohn is reporting that Moore's turnout drop-off is less than he thought an hour ago . . . ugh



CNN has Moore with 49.9% and Jones with 48.6%. 79% in. I guess you're a few steps ahead.

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:15 am

from Nate Cohn:

Image
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:16 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:with 81% in, Moore 49.6%, Jones 48.9% - 4 big Jones areas with a lot of votes to come in (half of Jefferson County, Mobile County and Montgomery County, Dallas Count) . . . but Cohn is reporting that Moore's turnout drop-off is less than he thought an hour ago . . . ugh



CNN has Moore with 49.9% and Jones with 48.6%. 79% in. I guess you're a few steps ahead.

. . . CNN is terrible, frankly, I'm looking at CNN, MSNBC, Breitbart, Nate Cohn's Twitter feed, The Upshot, and 538. :)
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:17 am

in fact, Liz Mair tweet:
In other news, I like how Jennifer Granholm, live on CNN, keeps checking the NYT site, suggesting she isn't buying John King and Wolf Blitzer's math. Classy.

LOL
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:18 am

Moore is now behind by 3,000 votes. The Upshot model is now calling Jones 83% chance of winning. Check that, 7,000 votes.

MSNBC is showing where Moore is trailing his own %'s in his last race for Supreme Court . . .
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:24 am

Jones' lead now 11,000 - mainly African American areas finally reporting.

Last item on Brietbart's live feed: "Reminder: Automatic recount triggered at half-percent margin"
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:25 am

The Upshot dial now at 95% plus chance of Jones victory.

This is yuuuuge. Bannon and Trump lose bigly. Alabama wins - good for the state . . .
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:26 am

Zeke Miller AP tweet: "BULLETIN (AP) — Doug Jones, Dem, elected U.S. Senate, Alabama." WaPo, too.

Will Bannon be attending the victory celebration - at Jones' headquarters? The live video feed on Breitbart from Moore's headquarters is really fun to watch.

A McConnell Republican would easily have won this seat. Bannon will rail against a media-elites conspiracy - but he seems to be getting a virtual fist in his ugly face tonight.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
scrmbldggs
Real Skeptic
Posts: 22396
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 7:55 am
Custom Title: something
Location: somewhere

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:29 am

Merry Dougmas!



(Since you mentioned McTurtle - he won't swear in "whoever" wins tonite this year...)
Last edited by scrmbldggs on Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
.

Lard, save me from your followers.

Balmoral95
Frequent Poster
Posts: 1744
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:14 am
Location: The Free Nambia Healthcare Nirvana

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Balmoral95 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:31 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Zeke Miller AP tweet: "BULLETIN (AP) — Doug Jones, Dem, elected U.S. Senate, Alabama."


YUGGGGEEE :lol:

DJT will claim stolen election/fraud

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:31 am

Republican Senate Leadership Fund CEO Steven Law: “This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running. Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco.”

Well, Trump is part of the problem. A Republican president with 48% approval in Alabama? Come on. And earlier tonight the right-wing commentators on CNN, like Santorum, were crowing about "the Trump factor." LOL
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:32 am

Harry Enten:
The Washington Post ruled this race. Not only did their reporting turn this race around, but their poll had Jones up 3 percentage points. That was by far one of the most accurate polls.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:33 am

Trump lost the Alabama Senate voting twice this year!! ROFL

Thanks, Ian . . . keep it up.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeff_36
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4606
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:35 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:with 81% in, Moore 49.6%, Jones 48.9% - 4 big Jones areas with a lot of votes to come in (half of Jefferson County, Mobile County and Montgomery County, Dallas Count) . . . but Cohn is reporting that Moore's turnout drop-off is less than he thought an hour ago . . . ugh



CNN has Moore with 49.9% and Jones with 48.6%. 79% in. I guess you're a few steps ahead.

. . . CNN is terrible, frankly, I'm looking at CNN, MSNBC, Breitbart, Nate Cohn's Twitter feed, The Upshot, and 538. :)


CNN is the resistance dude. and Breitbart? Really?

User avatar
Jeff_36
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4606
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:35 am

JONES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:36 am

Harry Enten:
The Senate is now definitely in play in 2018. If Democrats can hold onto their seats, they’d only need to win Arizona and Nevada, where they are at least slight favorites at this point, in order to take control.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Statistical Mechanic
Real Skeptic
Posts: 20872
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:19 pm
Custom Title: Dostawca - sciany tekstu
Location: still in Greater Tomainia

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:38 am

Jeff_36 wrote:JONES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Think of it: the man who won the conviction of the murderers of the 4 girls in the 16th St Baptist Church is now a Senator from Alabama.
You know, my dear Colonel General, I don't really believe that the Russians will attack at all. It's all an enormous bluff. - Heinrich Himmler to Heinz Guderian, December 1944

User avatar
Jeff_36
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4606
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:45 pm
Location: At the hundredth meridian, where the great plains begin

Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeff_36 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:38 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:JONES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Think of it: the man who convicted the murderer of the 4 girls in the 16th St Baptist Church is now a Senator from Alabama.


Destined by history. Triumph of the American spirit.


Return to “Politics and Government”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests