It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:35 pm

Trump seems to be relentlessly overestimating 4 factors in the Korea situation: 1) his own competence and ability, 2) North Korea's fear of American pressure and fear, 3) North Korea's attachment to its nuclear program and "defense strategy," 4) Chinese influence over - and appetite to influence - North Korea. He is underestimating what international negotiations might be able to accomplish. His strategy is almost a mirror of Kim's: brinkmanship.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927


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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:09 pm

What's going on with this new version of Chicken of the Sea? Sounds a bit dangerous to me, although I guess it has happened before:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/793 ... s-US-coast
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:14 pm




I'm starting to chill the champagne right now! I say don't give him a parting shot; when Olbermann was fired the first time, as a sportscaster, he was given one hour's notice and told he could say farewell to the audience. But when it came time to do it, they asked him to hold it down under one minute.

Speaking of BillO's biggest fan, one of HIS fans didn't make it to the WH today, namely Tom Brady. Some 34 members of Brady's team were there, but Brady sent regrets, pleading personal family matters that he needed to handle. As Brady, along with Kurt Schilling, was one of the biggest Trump supporters in the Boston area, this is not a political statement. So, it must really be a family matter.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:16 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Trump seems to be relentlessly overestimating 4 factors in the Korea situation: 1) his own competence and ability, 2) North Korea's fear of American pressure and fear, 3) North Korea's attachment to its nuclear program and "defense strategy," 4) Chinese influence over - and appetite to influence - North Korea. He is underestimating what international negotiations might be able to accomplish. His strategy is almost a mirror of Kim's: brinkmanship.


That's the worrisome thing. And it's not as if he has a skilled diplomat in charge of the State Department to smooth things over. Tillerson is just as naive as Trump himself. The shortest way is definitely not the best way here.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:32 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:So, it must really be a family matter.

My wife, who cannot connect politics and Brady, told me today that his absence was due to illness in the family. Periodically, my wife "forgets" who Brady and Belichick endorsed. She feigns surprise when I make derisive comments about this. It's more or less a comedy routine around here.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:33 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Trump seems to be relentlessly overestimating 4 factors in the Korea situation: 1) his own competence and ability, 2) North Korea's fear of American pressure and fear, 3) North Korea's attachment to its nuclear program and "defense strategy," 4) Chinese influence over - and appetite to influence - North Korea. He is underestimating what international negotiations might be able to accomplish. His strategy is almost a mirror of Kim's: brinkmanship.


That's the worrisome thing. And it's not as if he has a skilled diplomat in charge of the State Department to smooth things over. Tillerson is just as naive as Trump himself. The shortest way is definitely not the best way here.

Honestly I am not very impressed with Mad Dog and McMaster, either. Just sayin'.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Jeffk 1970 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:34 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:





Speaking of BillO's biggest fan, one of HIS fans didn't make it to the WH today, namely Tom Brady. Some 34 members of Brady's team were there, but Brady sent regrets, pleading personal family matters that he needed to handle. As Brady, along with Kurt Schilling, was one of the biggest Trump supporters in the Boston area, this is not a political statement. So, it must really be a family matter.


Brady's mother has cancer, that's the speculation that I'm seeing. He is spending time with her today.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:38 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Upton_O_Goode wrote:So, it must really be a family matter.

My wife, who cannot connect politics and Brady, told me today that his absence was due to illness in the family. Periodically, my wife "forgets" who Brady and Belichick endorsed. She feigns surprise when I make derisive comments about this. It's more or less a comedy routine around here.


Brady and Belichick and Schilling are such folk heroes that we (New Englanders) tend to give them a pass on their wretched politics. Brady at least is smart. Just recall the intricate knowledge of the Law of Ideal Gases that he exhibited in the 2015 Super Bowl.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:44 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Upton_O_Goode wrote:So, it must really be a family matter.

My wife, who cannot connect politics and Brady, told me today that his absence was due to illness in the family. Periodically, my wife "forgets" who Brady and Belichick endorsed. She feigns surprise when I make derisive comments about this. It's more or less a comedy routine around here.


Brady and Belichick and Schilling are such folk heroes that we (New Englanders) tend to give them a pass on their wretched politics. Brady at least is smart. Just recall the intricate knowledge of the Law of Ideal Gases that he exhibited in the 2015 Super Bowl.

LOL one of the greatest athletes I've ever seen, and I don't even like football . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:47 pm

So often Orange Blob's fulminations are projection. Remember, intelligence agencies being used politically against him. Shocking news on that score. Not only were Humpty's "wire tapp" claims proven baseless and Susan Rice "cleared" but
The intelligence community was allegedly directed to provide cover for President Donald Trump’s baseless claim that Trump Tower was wiretapped by his predecessor, the New Yorker reported Tuesday.

An anonymous intelligence source told the magazine’s Ryan Lizza that “the White House said, ‘We are going to mobilize to find something to justify the President’s tweet that he was being surveilled.’”

Asking for an “all-points bulletin,” or a request to look through intelligence reports, White House officials said, “We need to find something that justifies the President’s crazy tweet about surveillance at Trump Tower,” according to Lizza’s source.

The alleged effort to justify the President’s outlandish wiretapping claim sparked a month-long goose chase that culminated with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) temporarily recusing himself from the panel’s investigation into Russia’s interference in the U.S. election.

The White House did not respond to the New Yorker’s request for comment.

Lock him up!
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:53 pm

FOX statement on O'Reilly: "After a thorough and careful review of advertising revenues, er, the allegations . . ."

“I don’t think Bill did anything wrong.” - Orange-Anus-Mouth
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:10 pm

For courtroom arguments in Alex Jones' child custody trial, Jones' attorney advanced the claim that Jones is a performance artist, or like Jack Nicholson in Batman - that his real personality is unlike his air personality and that he is not serious about his claims and on-air antics (“He’s playing a character. He is a performance artist.”).

I should add that finding a jury unbiased against Jones in the Austin proved difficult.

Today the courtroom heard this:
Infowars founder Alex Jones was diagnosed with narcissistic personality disorder in a psychiatric evaluation, the divorce case manager confirmed during his custody trial in Austin on Wednesday. Austin psychologist Alissa Sherry said that a different doctor compiled the report, part of what she said was the most time-consuming divorce case she has ever worked. People diagnosed with NPD typically show traits including a lack of empathy, arrogance, and a propensity for grandiose fantasies. They are also frequently described as manipulative and demanding.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:55 pm

Josh Marshall's take on the The Case of the Missing Carrier:
. . . Nation states don’t consider themselves bound to strict transparency in such cases, understandably. If we had learned later that the US had said something was happening which was not true to drive anxiety in North Korea, this would not be entirely surprising. But again, that does not seem to be what happened. It seems much more like the White House and the President got sloppy, didn’t know exactly what was happening and through sloppiness and bravado created an impression that simply wasn’t true.

There doesn’t seem to have been any one single misstatement, more a slow process of overstatement that led to erroneous information becoming assumed by everyone. Spicer is now saying it’s the press’s fault they misunderstood. But the publics and press in the region’s seem to have misunderstood too. And it even seems like the governments may have misunderstood. Those are the kinds of misunderstandings which, if not by design, it’s the US government’s responsibility to clarify. . . .

Mattis’s references here make it clear there was at least some level of confusion from Mattis himself. . . .

. . . At the end of the day, this looks like the product of confusion and miscommunication within the administration. That’s a problem. It didn’t have any cataclysmic effect in this case. But in a high stakes stand off mixed with gunboat diplomacy, it could have.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wtf ... arl-vinson
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:01 pm

Trump 100 Days Plan (per CNN) - Repeal & Replace, Again:
Two sources close to the health care legislative process tell CNN the White House is exploring whether to take one more stab at repealing and replacing Obamacare before President Donald Trump hits the key milestone of 100 days in office late next week.

The renewed effort comes as Congress returns from recess next week and as the Trump administration is fielding questions about its legislative accomplishments during its first 100 days in office.

"I don't think it's impossible to think we'll have a vote," a senior administration official said optimistically. But the official cautioned that some GOP House members are still at odds over some of the bill's sticking points.

"I don't think it's having to rewrite the bill. It's just a total trust gap. As soon as we solve that, we can have a vote," the official said.

Trump himself was confident about the chances of Congress passing a health bill Tuesday in Wisconsin, telling CNN affiliate WTMJ: "We are going to have a big win soon, because we are going to have health care and that's gonna happen. And there was no lose with health care, this is just a constant negotiation and the plan is getting better and better all the time."

And Vice President Mike Pence told CNN aboard the USS Ronald Reagan that Trump is "determined to keep our promise" on health care. "I'm very confident that in the days ahead, we're going to see the Congress come together and we're going to take that important first step to repeal and replace Obamacare with the kind of health care plan President Trump has envisioned," he told CNN's Dana Bash in an exclusive interview Wednesday. . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:12 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:Tillerson letter to Congress tonight:

If I understand this . . . it opens some very broad possibilities. Sign the treaty now; we'll decide later whether to abide by it or not.

If Trump torpedoes the nuclear deal, isn't it possible that Iran's nuclear industry and a weapons program come back in full force as 1) hard(er)-liners than Rouhani, whose credibility is tied up with this treaty, push Rouhani out, 2) Iran steps back its limited engagement with western countries, 3) hard(er)-liners revive the nuclear weapons program, and 4) we enter a period of brinksmanship, possible regime change scenarios, and other instability related to Iran? So, my question, yes, to be clearer, could US action on the treaty (which is unrelated to terrorism AFAIK), lead to a hard(er)-line government in Iran?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:38 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:43 pm

Gallup: approve 42, disapprove 52, 1 pt movement favorable to the short-fingered vulgarian
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:55 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:For courtroom arguments in Alex Jones' child custody trial, Jones' attorney advanced the claim that Jones is a performance artist, or like Jack Nicholson in Batman - that his real personality is unlike his air personality and that he is not serious about his claims and on-air antics (“He’s playing a character. He is a performance artist.”).

I should add that finding a jury unbiased against Jones in the Austin proved difficult.

Today the courtroom heard this:
Infowars founder Alex Jones was diagnosed with narcissistic personality disorder in a psychiatric evaluation, the divorce case manager confirmed during his custody trial in Austin on Wednesday. Austin psychologist Alissa Sherry said that a different doctor compiled the report, part of what she said was the most time-consuming divorce case she has ever worked. People diagnosed with NPD typically show traits including a lack of empathy, arrogance, and a propensity for grandiose fantasies. They are also frequently described as manipulative and demanding.


First Bill, now Alex - how is he gonna cope, what is he gonna bomb do? :this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-HUbdEAxo8

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:03 pm

Oh well, he still has Fox & Clowns and Sean Douchebag....

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:06 pm

And he's picked up intellectual heavyweight Lindsey Graham, who today told, er, Fox & Fiends, “I am like the happiest dude in America right now. We have got a president and a national security team that I’ve been dreaming of for eight years.”
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:38 am

I just can't see how any sane person could be happy with Kim Young-un and Agent Orange in power at the same time.

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:43 am


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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby TJrandom » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:29 am

One world government is upon us, and Putin is the leader… :roll:

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:32 am

The plot sickens. Since-deleted tweet from Gisele Bundchen sent yesterday, around the time about half the N Eng Patriots visited the White House and so-called president Trump:
On April 29th in Washington- D.C. - March for climate, jobs, and justice. To change everything, we need everyone. https://t.co/dZaRiXQV46

— Gisele Bündchen (@giseleofficial) April 19, 2017
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:13 pm

Partisan divide deepens? Stalemate continues? POLITICO/Morning Consult poll on fist 100 days of Trumpery:
Give Trump an A: 16%
Give Trump an B: 23%
Give Trump an C: 24% [by implication]
Give Trump an D: 24%
Give Trump an F: 13%

The A's and B's add to Gallup's consistent "about 40%" approval.

Democrats: "48 percent, give Trump an 'F' grade, and an additional 19 percent award him a 'D.'" (So 30+% of Dems give Trump higher than a D . . . )
Republicans: "23 percent give him a ‘C’ or worse.” Or: 67% give him an A or B . . .

Weird: "Trump earns his highest marks on fighting terrorism, the poll shows." Hunh?

Earlier this week I had a long chat with a friend who lives in a red state, trending purple, and who himself votes Republican about half the time and Democratic about half the time. This guy is a member of a dying breed: a classic centrist - center-right really. He voted for Clinton but would have preferred Kasich. He told me that he can no longer watch much TV news or read much about politics or government on the Internet because he finds the news so frustrating. The point of his greatest concern involves his acquaintances and neighbors: in my friend's view, many are die-hard, unmovable supporters of Trump and often express blatant, unfiltered racist reasons for their strong support. He described Trump and his supporters as about equal in ignorance and bigotry. I asked him about Trump supporters' attitudes on gender, and my friend reverted to their views on race and immigration, which he said are toxic and aggressive. He sees no way to budge these people and has lost a number of friends due to Trump over the past year. As a result, my friend seems to have been pushed more into the Democratic camp than ever before.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:25 pm

Trump’s current strategy on funding of the federal government (deadline next Friday) seems to be to tie passage of the continuing resolution to:

1) $1.4bn appropriation for the Wall
2) a block on federal grants going to any city (there are 300 of these) which will not participate in enforcing federal immigration laws
3) $30bn supplemental funding for military
4) defunding Planned Parenthood
5) unspecified additional funding for “border security” (new technology, enforcement officers, etc)

As to the Democrats, responding to the so-called president’s threat to defund ACA cost sharing subsidies, Schumer has said that any funding bill must ensure continuation of these payments to insurance companies to keep markets functional.

According to POLITICO: “One senior Democratic aide said Democrats could support more military spending and possibly new technology for border security. But other ‘poison pills,’ like stripping money from Planned Parenthood, would be anathema to the legislation getting the 60 votes it needs to break a Senate filibuster.”

If the Democrats cave on military spending, as suggested, they are handing Trump a huge win - a first step toward a budget with increased military spending and reductions in social programs and other discretionary areas.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:19 pm



And oh man are those unfounded claims expensive to settle! Think of that: A fabulously wealthy organization with a phalanx of lawyers that could take on the Bar Association in court goes up against a bunch of powerless middle-class women who obviously have no evidence since their claims are unfounded, and....winds up paying millions of dollars. Nope, I've done the math. It just doesn't add up.

Of course, Trump wouldn't have settled with them. He's been cheating contractors for decades by the simple device of out-lawyering them. But even the Prince of Orange had to settle in that matter of Trump University.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:24 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Trump’s current strategy on funding of the federal government (deadline next Friday) seems to be to tie passage of the continuing resolution to:

1) $1.4bn appropriation for the Wall
2) a block on federal grants going to any city (there are 300 of these) which will not participate in enforcing federal immigration laws
3) $30bn supplemental funding for military
4) defunding Planned Parenthood
5) unspecified additional funding for “border security” (new technology, enforcement officers, etc)

As to the Democrats, responding to the so-called president’s threat to defund ACA cost sharing subsidies, Schumer has said that any funding bill must ensure continuation of these payments to insurance companies to keep markets functional.

According to POLITICO: “One senior Democratic aide said Democrats could support more military spending and possibly new technology for border security. But other ‘poison pills,’ like stripping money from Planned Parenthood, would be anathema to the legislation getting the 60 votes it needs to break a Senate filibuster.”

If the Democrats cave on military spending, as suggested, they are handing Trump a huge win - a first step toward a budget with increased military spending and reductions in social programs and other discretionary areas.


Yeah, I don't know how to advise the Democrats on this. There seems little chance that Ryan will allow an actual appropriation for ACA funding, so they'll need to get agreement from the Executive what's-his-name to continue that funding while the lawsuit moves forward to the newly stacked Supreme Court. Can't fight too many battles at once, though. Holding the budget hostage is risky.

In the past, the public has blamed the legislature for shutting down the government; will they blame the Republicans who are the majority this time? Or will the Republicans manage to pin the blame on the minority? I fear if they can point to a filibuster as the cause of the shutdown, the blame will fall on the Democrats. People get a little upset if the parks are closed. They'll get much MORE upset if Social Security payments don't arrive at the bank. A filibuster would be a huge risk here.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:34 pm

So, when does the winning start? Spinster's attempt to bluster looks very lame:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 91936.html
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:43 pm

Upton_O_Goode wrote:Yeah, I don't know how to advise the Democrats on this

IMO it is a bad idea to start more money flowing to defense. It locks out future budget possibilities - and locks in a mindset. From what I gather, some part of the Democratic congressional delegation is somewhat on board with increasing US military spending. But I think it's a policy and political mistake to go down that road.

Upton_O_Goode wrote:In the past, the public has blamed the legislature for shutting down the government

And yet the party of "no" dominates all three branches of government. I've never understood this argument.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:08 pm

Isn't it that, as with those damn "Senate rules", their manure filled craniums' constant excuse is "we are willing but our hands are tied"?

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:44 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:26 pm



I think the TPM piece said it best:

TPM wrote: Of all Trump goofs and scandals, this seems to be one of the more innocent ones in terms of intent. Maybe we’ll learn otherwise but I don’t think this was intentional. But when you’re talking tough and getting into stand offs over nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and a major global city vulnerable to overwhelming artillery fire, you’ve got to have your {!#%@} together.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

"So that course cured you of a logical fallacy."

"Well....possibly."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Upton_O_Goode » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:35 pm

We can deal with our enemies ourselves. Only God can protect us from our friends:

http://freebeacon.com/national-security ... -property/

What a {!#%@} MORON!! MSNBC had better ban this imbecile immediately if it expects to have any credibility.
Last edited by Upton_O_Goode on Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"I used to fall for the old post hoc, ergo propter hoc reasoning, but last year I took a course in logic and now I no longer do."

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:37 pm

Gallup tracking poll: disapprove 43, approve 50. Obama averaged about 43, a little less actually, in year 7, by way of comparison.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:28 am

To take down the latest ruling against Trump's Muslim ban, Sessions today took down Hawaii, where ruling was issued, from one of the 50 states to random island in the Pacific.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby scrmbldggs » Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:53 am

How's his perjury investigation coming along?

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:58 am

Tillerson, 18 April 2017:
This letter certifies that the conditions of Section 135(d)(6) of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (AEA), as amended, including as amended by the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (Public Law 114-17), enacted May 22, 2015, are met as of April 18, 2017.

Trumpty, 20 April 2017:
As far as Iran is concerned, I think they are doing a tremendous disservice to the agreement that was signed. . . . They’re not living up to the spirit of the agreement, I can tell you that. We’re analyzing it very, very carefully, and we’ll have something to say about it in the not-too-distant future.

Got that? I can think of some governments, allies and others, that will be listening . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: It's the Donnydämmerung! (new Trump thread)

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:14 am

Advanced birtherism: if Obama is said to have been born in a state, it stops being one.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927


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