France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat May 06, 2017 1:11 pm

Kleon_I XYZ Contagion wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:I'll wait for Kleon's reply - maybe the point will become clear as you guys discuss it.


Yes, I'd like to answer to what both Balsamo and Statistical Mechanic said and give a better insight on the historical context of Greek Left's stand on Macron-Lepen fight but it needs time. Difficult issues in general, although if I had to address them in Greek it would be easy for me, I guess, but in English, you understand, it takes effort :)

These issues are hard enough in one's native language! :)
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 12:20 am

Researchers are saying that more so than right-wing Americans, bots are spreading the "news" about the Macron hack. This raises the question if machines talk to machines during an election blackout, and no one receives their tweets, did anything really happen at all?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 5:28 pm

First information about the elections:

- As anticipated, abstention is high, not as high as in the worst scenario, the participation stands at 65.3% at 5.00 pm French time. (it stood at 69.42% in the first round). Forecast are 73 or 74% at the end of the day.

It won't affect the global result, but it is noticeable to point that participation is very low in Paris and its surrounding, won by Macron in Paris and its surrounding: only 58.77%, Seine-Saint-Denis ( won by Melanchon) only 54.65%.
Again, no real danger as MLP is very weak, but it could affect Macron the level of legitimacy.

Blank vote will only be known in one hour with the results.

5 years ago, Francois Hollande had been elected with a little more than 18.000.000 vote (out of 46.000.000 registered voters, abstention was around 20%, so out of 37.000.000 votes expressed (blank vote reached already 5%).

in 2017, there are 47.600.000 registered voters.
35.200.000 are expect to vote (already less than in 2012)

Nevertheless, i think MLP will undeperform my personal estimations (12 - 13.000.000). We'll see.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 5:30 pm

As a result of this (FN not accrediting a number of news organizations for their post-election gathering), Le Monde and Libération will not cover FN's gathering either:
The Front National has chosen to exclude some French and international media from its election evening event on 7 May ... Le Monde forcefully condemns this attitude which does not allow proper coverage of a major democratic moment and shows a poor interpretation of press freedom. In solidarity with the media concerned, we have decided we will not be present at this election evening event. This decision will not prevent us from covering the Front National to the same journalistic standards.

Le Monde statement.

Turnout (~74% projected) looks to be lowest since 1969.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 6:01 pm

First exit polls (in France they are based on actual votes from sample districts not on self-reporting by voters): Macron 65,1%, Le Pen 34,9%. Major disappointment for FN.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 6:06 pm

Blank votes at almost 9%....

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 6:08 pm

France24 commentators point to the debate in which Marine Le Pen came across as unprepared, nihilistic, and without a program. Late deciders thus breaking for Le Pen and "abstainers" deciding against the "unpresidential" Le Pen.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 6:11 pm

As Balsamo wrote earlier, France24 commentators focus on 40% for Le Pen; they are saying that her falling so far short of that target is a worse than expected outcome for FN and sets Macron up better than expected for the next round. That said, Angelique Chrysalis tweets what seems to me, from afar, an important point: "Marine Le Pen projected to take around 11 million votes, double her father's score in 2002 #Presidentielle2017." FN seems poised to be the major opposition to Macron.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 6:14 pm

On cue, Le Pen has just declared in her concession speech, noting that the voters chose continuity, that also “The French people have chosen our alliance as the biggest opposition group in France.”

France24 commentators agree that, despite the worse than expected result for the FN, the FN had not expected to do this well in 2017; spirits at the FN post-election meeting are said to be determined and optimistic.

I don't think Le Pen will be disappearing but rather gearing up for the legislative elections and beyond. Discussion on France24 projects internal debate within the FN on what it stands for, how hard right to be, and how to win. Le Pen referred during her concession speech to a "profound reform" of the FN to create an effective patriotic opposition force to the new government.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 6:48 pm

Balsamo wrote:Blank votes at almost 9%....

In raw numbers, says France24,
4 million voted "blank" in #Presidentielle2017.

To put this into some perspective, Mélenchon IIRC received close to 7m votes in round 1 (not all blank ballots would come from his supporters, of course).
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 7:03 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Balsamo wrote:Blank votes at almost 9%....

In raw numbers, says France24,
4 million voted "blank" in #Presidentielle2017.

To put this into some perspective, Mélenchon IIRC received close to 7m votes in round 1 (not all blank ballots would come from his supporters, of course).


No, but don't forget that Abstention was an option also.
If one adds it all up
We have 25% who did not vote or 12.181.000
We have 8.8% of blank or about 4.000.000
That is 16.181.000 who put themselves out of the election, and that is historical.

Other interesting polls emerged,
44% of those who voted for Macron declared that they did it only to oppose the Front National and Marine Le Pen. This is also huge, and confirms the next poll that 61% DO NOT want Macron to have a majority at Congress in June.
Only 16% of the people who voted Macron said they vote for Macron's political program.

Still following the debates.
will report later

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 7:04 pm

Guardian:
The abstention rate, an estimated 25.3%, was the highest in a French presidential election since 1969, and the number of voters who cast a blank or spoiled ballot is expected to reach an absolute record of about 12%.

The figures reflect the relatively large number of French people in this election who felt unable to vote for either candidate so either did not do so, or did but registered their disapproval of the choice they were being offered.

Commentators have said this is largely a consequence of the fact that neither candidate represented an established mainstream party, and that for some voters particularly on the left, the alternative to the far right was seen as more right than left.

This estimates even higher % of blank ballots.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 7:09 pm

Balsamo wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Balsamo wrote:Blank votes at almost 9%....

In raw numbers, says France24,
4 million voted "blank" in #Presidentielle2017.

To put this into some perspective, Mélenchon IIRC received close to 7m votes in round 1 (not all blank ballots would come from his supporters, of course).

No, but don't forget that Abstention was an option also.

Of course. I was using Mélenchon's 7 million just as a kind of baseline but clarifying that blank ballots (and abstentions of course) would come from various places. No particular argument made.

With such a large number voting against the NF and Le Pen, rather than for Macron, it does seem that FN has some thinking and re-positioning to do. How can they expand much when such a large part of the electorate will vote against them?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 7:12 pm

France24 is reporting a record number of about 9 percent blank ballots, as Balsamo posted, not the 12% reported by The Guardian.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Xcalibur » Sun May 07, 2017 7:55 pm

Just saw someone refer to Macron as a "commie" :lol:

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 8:00 pm

France24: "... CGT trade union has called for demonstrations tomorrow, May 8, to mark the start of Macron’s presidency."
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 8:54 pm

Inside the NF:
Stuart Norval @StuartNorval
National Front supporters on French TV already talking of Marion Maréchal-Le Pen as potential new leader. Going to be fasinating to see!

The argument being put forward by Le Pen's niece is that Marine went soft on the euro and returning to the franc, confusing voters.

Le Pens certainly stand out:
1965: de Gaulle 55 / Mitterrand 45
1969: Pompidou 58 / Poher 42
1974: Giscard d’Estaing 51 / Mitterand 49
1981: Mitterand 52 / Giscard d’Estaing 48
1988: Mitterand 54 / Chirac 46
1995: Chirac 53 / Jospin 47
2002: Chirac 82 / J-M Le Pen 18
2007: Sarkozy 53 / Royal 47
2012: Hollande 52 / Sarkozy 48
2017: Macron 63 / M Le Pen 37*

. . . but FN doubled its 2nd round total over 2002 . . .

* French Interior Ministry results, on 34.2M votes at 10:00pm Paris time:
Macron 62.89
Le Pen 37.11
Abstention 24.32
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 9:34 pm

Xcalibur wrote:Just saw someone refer to Macron as a "commie" :lol:


You've been told to avoid Rodoh or codoh for the next 15 days... :oldman:

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 9:42 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 10:55 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Inside the NF:
Stuart Norval @StuartNorval
National Front supporters on French TV already talking of Marion Maréchal-Le Pen as potential new leader. Going to be fasinating to see!

The argument being put forward by Le Pen's niece is that Marine went soft on the euro and returning to the franc, confusing voters.

Le Pens certainly stand out:
1965: de Gaulle 55 / Mitterrand 45
1969: Pompidou 58 / Poher 42
1974: Giscard d’Estaing 51 / Mitterand 49
1981: Mitterand 52 / Giscard d’Estaing 48
1988: Mitterand 54 / Chirac 46
1995: Chirac 53 / Jospin 47
2002: Chirac 82 / J-M Le Pen 18
2007: Sarkozy 53 / Royal 47
2012: Hollande 52 / Sarkozy 48
2017: Macron 63 / M Le Pen 37*

. . . but FN doubled its 2nd round total over 2002 . . .

* French Interior Ministry results, on 34.2M votes at 10:00pm Paris time:
Macron 62.89
Le Pen 37.11
Abstention 24.32


Those last numbers are not right. I think it is still too early to have official results. For now, for what i know, its about 65.8 vs 34.2%.

After having watched and even sometime listened to the after-election debates, i will stay with my pessimist stance.
The show tonight in my opinion has already hurt the new president future, as most of the personalities coming on stage to celebrate were members of the former and historically highly unpopular government of president Hollande.
Minister Segolene Royal, ex-girlfriend of the president (actually mother of his two kids) could hardly dissimulate her joy, almost crying.
It was reported that at the Elysee, presidential palace, they were celebrating. (even if true, they should not have reported it)
When the new president crossed Paris to reach the gathering point of his supporters, all the media followed his car in basically empty streets, no crowed, no cheers, no joy.
At the Louvre, well chosen site given its structures that allows 8.000 people to look like a 50.000 rally, well those were celebrating, but that is about it.
New president Macron made a speech for the nation on tv first, badly filmed, clearly showing he was reading a tasteless text, not looking the viewers in the eyes, then another speech in front his fans at the Louvre during which i fell asleep for a while.

Macron political supporters tried very hard to present this election as a historical moment, a rupture in history and the opening of a new era...unfortunately, the enthusiasm seems not to be shared by the population, as described above. Worse, a study disclosed at the end of the evening seems to indicate that his movement "En Marche" would attract roughly 26% of the vote in the June election - he would need 50% +1.

- The Republican right seems to have found some hope in those data and clearly rejected any form of cooperation or alliance before the end of the June election. The "LR" new leader also stated that any member of his party tempted to join the new president would be excluded.
- Melanchon already declared his war on the new president, and sent a clear warning if he chose to legislate by "executive orders" (ordonnances, 49.3 in France) on social matters, and gave his supporters a "rendez-vous" in June.
- Even the socialist party, although weakened, tempered its enthusiasm by saying it was open to a alliance but would oppose the right oriented propositions of the president. Although some dissidents clearly call for a merger of the PS with En Marche (the opposite of what the huge majority of the French actually wants)

- The leaders of "EN Marche" made the prospect even darker for them, in stating that half their candidates in the future elections would come from the civil society, that is with no political background whatsoever, as if it was a peace of cake to get 50%+1 against well established local representatives.


Marine Le Pen, as i have expected, already announced a reconstruction of her Party...as i said they have to get rid of their name, Front National is forever associated with her father Jean-Marie, authentic fascist, and it is an obstacle.
She can indeed be disappointed for having {!#%@} up the debate, broken her dynamic three day before the vote, but on the map, the progress is constant. She will probably be ahead in three departments or so, which is huge given that it means that the FN or her name can break the 50% level. This could means a success in the June elections. The Front National has clear stronghold now where it is dominating with over 50%...
That never happened before.

As expected she was weak in Paris (10%) and in the western part of the counrty (but progressing nevertheless)
Here is what northern france looks like:
Image
In blue, municipalities won with over 50% by MLP

She also declared that she would lead the campaign for those elections (so no, Jeff, she is not out).

A real political mess can therefore be expected in June, just like in the old days of the IV republic...that again will be historical.
Very interesting time for observers nevertheless.

As a conclusion, well i admit that at the results, i felt somewhat relieved to see MLP underperforming the polls, relieved also by the fact that our golden boy did not get a triumph, with over 34% of the registered voters not supporting him. It did not last long as i realized that those 34.2% or 11.000.000 voters chose MLP no matter what. She clearly leads the most important political party of the country, and everyone is happy. I just don't understand that.
Who would have thought that just 15 years ago? (but me...lol, but then i was treated like a fool back then)
As i said, based on the available result, she won two departments with over 52% of the votes, i expect a third one. And she is scoring big in many others (that is over 45%). For you celebrities, she lost with 45% in Saint-Tropez...

Last result she lost the VAR (cote d'Azur) with 49.15% (best score ever), and the Vaucluse (also south) with 44.65%, still waiting for the Marseille region Bouche du Rhone.

It is important to keep in mind that the FN only represent itself, while Macron represented all the rest of the french political sphere. France, contrary to the US, is not dominated by two BIG ONES, the traditional right, LR or "Les Republicains" is already a coalition of the former parties UMP, UDF, UDI which merged in order to keep a substantial presence. The same with the dying PS (socialist Party) who ate the Parti Radical de Gauche, the Mouvement citoyen... (all were once political parties on their own), the Ecologists have disappeared, that is all what is left of the "democratic forces)...43% of the registered voters vs 22% for the FN.

More later

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 11:14 pm

Balsamo wrote:Those last numbers are not right. I think it is still too early to have official results. For now, for what i know, its about 65.8 vs 34.2%.

They may not be final but they were what the French Interior Ministry announced as of 10pm, according IIRC to France24. I didn't mean to imply they were accurate or final - that's why included the time of the statement. France24 has since updated the figures and have 65,8% for Macron.

As to the rest, the result seems (from afar) to be to some degree a rejection of Le Pen and the FN - but mixed on the FN, given that the party have doubled the results of 2002 and 2012 IIRC - without meaning there was strong support for Macron. Apart from Christiane Amanpour, who can't stop celebrating, this is the view I have read mostly.

I wonder if there's a bit of a Trump backlash at work now.

Balsamo wrote: everyone is happy. I just don't understand that.

You might want to take a peek at The Guardian before writing "everyone": The French presidency goes to Macron. But it’s only a reprieve and The Guardian view on the French election: Good luck, Mr Macron. You will need it. But it is possible to be relieved that the far right didn't do even better whilst also being realistic about how well she did do, prospects under Macron, and about future possibilities.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Sun May 07, 2017 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 11:26 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun May 07, 2017 11:46 pm

Statmec:

You might want to take a peek at The Guardian before writing "everyone": The French presidency goes to Macron. But it’s only a reprieve and The Guardian view on the French election: Good luck, Mr Macron. You will need it. But it is possible to be relieved that the far right didn't do even better whilst also being realistic about how well she did do, prospects under Macron, and about future possibilities.


Yes, thanks. Good articles. Love the "triple expressos of reality" (will use that one), but don't agree that "Macron knows what has to be done", as what he proposes is the short cut to disaster. That is the whole point. Indeed, Italy is on the edge, but the Deutsche Bank is also, and even "all-mighty" Germany won't be able to deal with the consequences of such a banking failure, Greece is under medical intensive care, Portugal and Spain are sick as hell, Belgium is under the threat of its own banking crisis. This situation is not the result of bad political choice, but of lack of it. States have let their Banks become fragile monsters (they have much bigger balance sheets than in the US), because of EU deregulation. More EU will solve nothing if the EU remains the same,
But i agree with the article, that even if he "knew what needed to be done", he will not be in position to do anything. Worse, as i said before, even if he was nationally, and could rally Merkel, even both leaders could not change anything about the monsters they have created. Sad reality...Which quite answers the second article you posted. (both a good ones, though)

I was of course commenting the electoral evening on the french TV.
Just saw on Yahoo that Stephen Hawking was now giving only 100 years to live for humanity, which should bring some relativism to all this. :lol: My daughter says she does not want children, and this give my son the opportunity to be gay. :lol: :lol:

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Sun May 07, 2017 11:48 pm

Told ya

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 11:53 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:Told ya

Told who what?!?!?!
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun May 07, 2017 11:54 pm

Balsamo wrote:Statmec:

You might want to take a peek at The Guardian before writing "everyone": The French presidency goes to Macron. But it’s only a reprieve and The Guardian view on the French election: Good luck, Mr Macron. You will need it. But it is possible to be relieved that the far right didn't do even better whilst also being realistic about how well she did do, prospects under Macron, and about future possibilities.


Yes, thanks. Good articles. Love the "triple expressos of reality" (will use that one), but don't agree that "Macron knows what has to be done", as what he proposes is the short cut to disaster.

I don't, either. But the point is that not "everyone" is ecstatic and crowing thoughtlessly like Jeff_36. :)
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 12:03 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:The Intercept on #MacronLeaks.


I have inspected most of those documents...and did not report on the forum because there is just nothing in there, really. An attempt to make a buzz out of nothing.
Still there are some elements that i don't understand. Contrary to what most media said friday, those documents were stolen weeks ago, why put them on air so close to the election, as it was sure that it would not have any effect given the restriction of diffusion in France?

Actually, the only thing that could become a scandal - but i spoke about that before this "leak" - is on how Macron financed his movement. Some of those papers, leggit, shows that "En Marche" spent around 20.000.000 euros for this campaign.
As i said, it could not receive any public money - as he was a new candidate - and the French electoral law forbid companies from donating. So a candidate without public funds can only rely on "private donation" that cannot exceed 4500 euros (5000$).
One of the documents reveals that one financial corporation from the us was willing to make a donation of 20.000$...but of course, there is no proof that it did send the money.
It is the only risk i see, as i doubt that he would have been able to finance such a campaign by himself with the sole help of the members of his new movement.
A movement not being a stable entity, it is also strange that the banks would have granted that kind of money without some guarantee. (considering that no banking institutions wanted to lend money to MLP).
So this could become a problem for our golden boy, but then now that he is president, who really will care?

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 12:04 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Told ya

Told who what?!?!?!


Yes "Told ya" what? :lol:
That MLP would lose? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


UPDATE: MLP missed her bet on Marseille, she lost the Bouche du Rhone with 42.15% that must be a real disappointment. I guess she will have to focus there, as she clearly has unperformed in the South, while outperforming in the North and the East.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 12:21 am

Balsamo wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Told ya

Told who what?!?!?!


Yes "Told ya" what? :lol:
That MLP would lose? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Just to recall, when I asked if Le Pen had any realistic chance - I thought not - you said no, and we went on from there.

Balsamo wrote:UPDATE: MLP missed her bet on Marseille, she lost the Bouche du Rhone with 42.15% that must be a real disappointment. I guess she will have to focus there, as she clearly has unperformed in the South, while outperforming in the North and the East.

She won her only two departments in the northeast, right? losing every department, albeit some closer than others, in the south . . . ?
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Mon May 08, 2017 12:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 12:37 am

Pretty decisive margin per Reuters: "BREAKING NEWS:French interior ministry says Macron elected president with 66.06 percent after counting virtually all votes" - she didn't get to even 35%.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 12:46 am

Yes, but she did well in some departments in the North, losing with a very narrow margin in many departments like the Ardennes (at the Belgian border) 49.27%, Meuse 48.38%, Haute-Marne 49.52%, Oise 46.72%, Somme 45.8%, etc...
Strangely, the FN dynamic shifted from the South to the North which has always been a communist then socialist stronghold while the South has always been more a right one.
So here we have the two faces of the French far-right, which MLP has to handle with, which is not that easy. The South concern is mainly immigration while the north is more social-economical one.

It is now the North (Haut de France) 47.1% who is the most pro FN region, then comes Paca (south) 44.5% and the East (Alsace) 42%...

EDIT:as for your last pòst, yes that was expected as Paris is counted last, and Macron stroke a nice 90% there.... (but remember, in the first round, Melanchon came second...)
MLP owns the countryside in the North, East and South, and is still limited in the major cities.
Melanchon is strong in cities all over France, remember first in Marseille, but also in Lille (North), Saint Etienne (Center)., Toulouse (south west)...But is week in the countrysides....

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 08, 2017 12:51 am

And to end my contribution for tonight, let's me introduce you the next president of France, singing :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsnlYo0bhx4

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Mon May 08, 2017 1:21 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:Told ya

Told who what?!?!?!


I told everyone she'd get smashed. This was a landslide win for Macron, according to most observers.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 1:25 am

But Balsamo told everyone first . . . and no one was contesting the likely outcome. Not really getting into pride of predictive success but the discussion on this election hasn't been about that but rather about the right voting strategy, the future of FN after losing, and Macron's prospects governing.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Mon May 08, 2017 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Mon May 08, 2017 1:27 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:But Balsamo told everyone first . . . and no one was contesting the likely outcome.


Balsamo stated that there was a chance she would get 40% - one estimate stated that she might have only gotten 31%. This was a pathetic showing and it does not bode well for her going into the legislative elections.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 1:34 am

Actually Balsamo saw her max as 36% to 43% . . . she got 34%, so he was off a little bit on the low end. Big deal. And a few days ago you wrote that "the debate is Le Pen's last chance." We seem to be carrying on parallel discussions about different topics.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Mon May 08, 2017 1:37 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Actually Balsamo saw her max as 36% to 43% . . . she got 34%, so he was off a little bit on the low end. Big deal. And a few days ago you wrote that "the debate is Le Pen's last chance." We seem to be carrying on parallel discussions about different topics.


Ok, moving on, I think that the size of Macron's victory (it is being called a landslide) bodes well for him in the legislative elections.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 1:42 am

I'll leave that to you experts on French elections . . . I don't know French politics at any such level.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 08, 2017 11:05 am

Guardian story on conclusions drawn by two cybersecurity firms on Macron hacking - IDing the culprit as the hackers previously known as Advanced Persistent Threat 28, Fancy Bear and Pawn Storm (those fingered for hacking US presidential election) and explaining why the Macron hack flopped.

Today Putin has called for an end to "mutual mistrust" in relations of Russia and France.

PS - in TPM John Judis speculates that along with the populist uprising Europe is experiencing an anti-Trump backlash. And final result of Macron 66.1, Len Pen 33.9 has been confirmed.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Kleon_I XYZ Contagion » Mon May 08, 2017 4:11 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:These issues are hard enough in one's native language! :)


I'm afraid I can't keep my promise, unfortunately, due to lack of time and work keeping piling up. But we'll find another opportunity in the future, I hope. I'm really sorry, I guess you understand, sorting out complexed thoughts in a foreign language isn't always easy.
Just a couple of notes:

The Greek Civil War 1946-1949 wasn't really happened because Stalin wanted Greece. He didn't want my country. He had his 'percentage' agreement with Churchill and he kept his word. Of course, he wanted the fight in order to keep busy the British and the Americans troops in Greece while he was busy stabilizing his power in the Eastern Europe (and probably taking care of other business in the Far East of USSR) but he didn't lift a finger. He didn't send a single bullet to the Greek Communists of KKE. If he wanted, since all northern borders of Greece were one way or another under his control (friendly communist regimes in Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Albania) he could send not only bullets and rifles but tanks and airplanes, if this was the plan. But he ignored KKE and let only some weapons from Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia to be transferred to Greece. And after Tito in 1948 broke the bond with the other communists and closed the Greek-Yugoslavian borders ('the stab in the back' as Zachariadis said) then the fight was doomed.

So, it looked like an early Cold War Vietnam but it wasn't really. The main reason the Civil War took place is because in Greece the collaborators weren't punished and became the state and the parastate. Leftists were killed, jailed, exiled, tortured all over Greece. This era was called 'The White Terrorism' from early 1945 to mid 1947. Then the leftists thought it's better to die in dignity, with a weapon in their arm, instead of 'killing you like an animal in the middle of the street'. And they went again back in the mountains, exactly like during the occupation when they were ELAS troops. Many of them were members of KKE, and this party saw an opportunity maybe it could seize the power. Stalin didn't say clearly 'proceed' or 'stop', so they were improvising, and finally lost, since the Americans succeeded the British in helping the new regime.

Prior to that, Zachariadis tried for a new form for 'The Popular Front' which had worked pretty well during the occupation, with the EAM-ELAS coalition. He proposed to the centrists before the 1946 elections a new coalition, but they refused. So KKE and all other EAM alike parties abstained from these very crucial first post-war elections. Six months later, Greece again was a monarchy, the King returned, then was 'The White Terrorism', then the Civil War (I went a little backwards chronologically, but you get the point).

Then it was the 1952 elections with the slogan 'what if Papagos, what if Plastiras' I mentioned before.
Then it was the non formal coalition of 1964-1965 with overthrown the Right from the power, but didn't work as the Americans, the King and the elites interfered, and then it was the colonels' regime 1967-1974.
In 1981, with the rise of PASOK in power, it seemed the Left and the centrists could work a little together, but due to PASOK's corruption the bond broke pretty soon, and in 1989-1990 the Left joined the Right for an anti-PASOK coalition. This was a reason for the left to split again, between the 'orthodox' and the 'reformists'.

Today's SYRIZA (which means 'Coalition of radical left') is the coalition of many different forms of Left, maoists, trotskyists, stalinists, greens, eurocommunists, you name it. It was split again in 2015 after Tsipras' turn after the referendum. Varoufakis went with the 'non so European friendly' parts (even Putin lovers), while those who stayed are more European-oriented. This is why it was a surprise for me Yanis' piece in Guardian.

Anyway, I said I wouldn't answer but more or less I lied, but I have to go back to work!
According to experts and scholars, the 10 stages of every genocide are
Classification Symbolization Discrimination Dehumanization Organization Polarization Preparation Persecution Extermination
... and finally the 10th stage:
Denial
http://www.genocidewatch.org/genocide/t ... ocide.html

XYZ Contagion (‘Because the truth is contagious‘), an investigative/research political and historical website, deals also with the Srebrenica Genocide
https://xyzcontagion.wordpress.com/about/#English


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