France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Holocaust denial and related subjects.
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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Kleon_I XYZ Contagion » Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:40 pm

Did you see this? Oh God, this was quick, thanks to internet. The student's thesis was found real fast, cross-checked, knock, down, he left.

- Acting National Front chief steps down amid accusations of Holocaust denial
https://www.thelocal.fr/20170428/nation ... ust-denial

- Back in 2000, Jalkh got chatty with an academic named Magali Boumaza. In a wide-ranging interview, he apparently revealed his belief that, from a “technical standpoint,” it is “impossible” that Zyklon B had been used by the Nazis to murder Jews in World War II:
I consider that from a technical standpoint it is impossible – and I stress, impossible – to use it in mass exterminations. Why? Because you need several days to decontaminate a space … where Zyklon B has been used.

Le Monde noted that in the interview, Jalkh, spoke, apparently approvingly, of the “rigor” of some of the now-disgraced former professor Robert Faurisson’s work on the Holocaust. But Faurisson is a known Holocaust revisionist who was prosecuted in 1993 after writing an article denying that Auschwitz was an extermination camp and was later charged with “complicity in contesting the existence of a crime against humanity,” over other comments he made questioning the Holocaust, for which he received a suspended sentence and a fine. (He is widely praised by Holocaust revisionist websites.)

At the time, Jalkh told the interviewer that his own questioning of the details of the Holocaust was not out of “deliberate will to harm anyone,” and explained that on things like Zyklon B, “I believe we should be able to discuss this issue.”
Such questioning, though, is a hallmark of Holocaust revisionists — what scholar Deborah Lipstadt refers to as “soft-core” Holocaust denialism. As Lipstadt wrote in the Atlantic earlier this year, such denialism “does not deny the facts, but it minimizes them.”
Jalkh has denied the quotes being attributed to him. Contacted by Le Monde on Thursday, he said, “This is the first time I’ve heard this...BS. I have no memory of it.”
Party members said today Jalkh had filed an official complaint to contest the story.
But BuzzFeed France contacted Boumaza today. She stood by the interview and said she had recorded the conversation.


From the French BuzzFeed"
- Propos de Jean-Francois Jalkh sur les chambres a gaz: la chercheuse qui l'a interroge confirme
https://www.buzzfeed.com/paulaveline/pr ... .mrVmMmjBb
According to experts and scholars, the 10 stages of every genocide are
Classification Symbolization Discrimination Dehumanization Organization Polarization Preparation Persecution Extermination
... and finally the 10th stage:
Denial
http://www.genocidewatch.org/genocide/t ... ocide.html

XYZ Contagion (‘Because the truth is contagious‘), an investigative/research political and historical website, deals also with the Srebrenica Genocide
https://xyzcontagion.wordpress.com/about/#English

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:44 pm

Thanks, I read a different piece exposing this a-hole yesterday, and his denials of denial (in VOX) but not that he'd had to step down, poor dear . . . kind of puts a dent into the new & cleaned-up FN and Le Pen's smooth start!
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:26 pm

Odoxa poll: Macron 59% (-4 pts) - Le Pen 41% (+4%)

40% of Mélenchon voters will vote Macron, 40% abstain, according to the polling. Mélenchon has yet to give guidance.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:47 pm

Balsamo wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:So we agree that Le Pen is finished? D'accord?


Finished?
Well i wish it could be that easy...
My stance is that she wins even though she will lose...
except if she gets a beating, let's say 20-25%...not likely...
She is still young and will be there in 5 years. Unfortunately, it is not like in the USA where defeated candidates for presidency tend to disappear.

So, not "d'accord" ;)


We have to take things one at a time. 2022 is a long ways away - who knows what the poling numbers will be at that point? Who knows whether or not she'll be turfed by purists in her own party?

What matters is that Macron is winning in 2017. We'll worry about 2022 in five years.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:35 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Odoxa poll: Macron 59% (-4 pts) - Le Pen 41% (+4%)

40% of Mélenchon voters will vote Macron, 40% abstain, according to the polling. Mélenchon has yet to give guidance.


Yes, but those number are the latest.
Interestingly, those number were higher on the Sunday after the first round.
Here in order : Macron / Abstention / Le Pen

MELANCHON: 53% / 31% / 16%
HAMON: 80% / 12% / 8%
FILLON: 49% / 23% / 28%

That means that Macron lost 13 points among Melanchon's voters, 17 points among the socialist voters, but gained +1 among the "Les Republicain". Macron is losing steam, but Le Pen does not seem to profit from it, while Abstention appears to the winner with +9 among Melanchon's voters, +17 among the socialists, and +6 among the "Republicans"

Another interesting poll came out this morning:
75% of the electors are expecting a Macron victory
56% wish a Macron victory
while 35% wish a Le Pen victory.
By deduction, one can say that 9-10% are against both candidates.

This last polls is important as it does not focus on the voters but on the global population. The self-confidence of 75% of the population can keep the people at home next week, while the number who really wish Macron as president is lower than i would have expected.
On the other hand, that 35% of the population wish MLP to win could constitute a solid base. (Unofficial sources say that MLP would consider reaching the 40% mark as a personal victory), mixing those information together, she could do it ( as i said her 13.000.000 votes could represent anywhere between 36 and 43% depending on the participation to the election)

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:00 pm

Now it is official:

Jean-Luc Melanchon will not issue any recommendation for the second round.
There is a 30 min video on youtube explaining why.
https://www.youtube.com/user/PlaceauPeuple
I will not translate the whole things, as he honored me in explaining what i wrote before.
But he provided some welcomed statistics, like that 30% of the youth voted for him in the first round, and he feels he cannot betrayed them by asking to vote against its conscience for what he called the "far-finance" (by opposition to the "far-right), he said that everyone who knows him a bit can guess his vote, and it is not even conceivable to think that this vote for MLP, as all his political actions have been dedicated to free the popular class from the hatred provided by the National Front, by giving them another motive to hope and to believe in.
As i suspected, he now thinks about the Legislative election in June, and note that if the movement keeps its unity, their candidates would qualify for the second round in no less than 451 electoral districts (out of 577). He recalled that his movement came at the first place in many important cities, Marseilles being the most important, but also cities like Toulouse, Montpellier, Lille, Le Havre, Grenoble, Avignon, Saint-Etienne, Nime, Evry (the one of former prime minister Emmanuel Valls),Roubaix, Tourcoing, (all cities of over 100.000), that the movement qualified itself for the second round in 38 "Departements"(out of 96), won 5 regions, etc... That the Movement progressed by 75% since 2012, and that the fight should continue.
he said that the program will not change, that there will be no compromise with it.
That at this crucial point, it is important to think positively.

The imperative to keep the movement to stay united and focused on the "project", and on the fight against the one of the two candidates who will win the presidential election who both have a program that will keep dividing the country, Macron will keep dismantling the Welfare system protecting the Poor and vulnerable, while MLP is even worse.

He confirms what i said that this useless violence to impose a choice to the candidates who lost in the first round - even though everyone knows the case is closed since Sunday - is to destroy the future of the opposition movements, La France insoumise mainly, because we could upset them in the June election. Besides, he has not the right to impose such a choice to his supporters as he describes himself as a Speaker of the Movement, that he is well aware that they cannot be any unanimous decision among 450.000 followers, hence the risk of silly and useless divisions.

Ok i stop there,
But he is right, he wants to "revolutionize" the State "democratically", he knows - and his opponents know - that he is in position to send many representatives who would not only give political strength to the movement, but also be in a position to fight / protect the poor and vulnerable on the front line, that is at the Congress.

He declares that to doubt about his feeling for the National Front is probably the most stupid media campaign ever thought about, as explained above. That his supporters should not fall into this trap.

And he is right!

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:01 pm

Statmec:

But the other questions are 1) can Macron assemble a governing coalition? 2) can Macron govern a fractured country? c) will Macron's policies feed the extremes, so to speak?


1./
Here is a interesting analysis of the definitive results of the first round that can give a clue on what to expect in June.
There are 577 electoral districts in France.
Macron won 240 of them
MLP won 216
Melanchon won 67
Fillon 54
Hamon (Socialist Party) 0

The districts won by the candidates with a score over 30% of the votes.
MLP comes first and won 85 districts with over 30% of the votes
Macron won 68 such districts
Fillon 33
Melanchon 30

The French egislative elections, as i said, tend to support the big parties. Usually, the two who comes first in the first round are qualified for the second round, then the one with 50%+1 win.
There are exception, Every candidate that gathers votes representing at least 12.5% of the listed voters (there are electoral lists France and only those on the list can vote) will also qualify.
When there are more than two candidates on the second round, it is the one with the highest number of vote who wins.

So in those cases, the level of abstention is the key. If the participation is 100%, a candidate needs 12.5% to stay in the run, if the participàtion is only 50%, you need 25% to stay in the run. So if the participation is around the level of the presidential, let's simplify at 75%, then the qualification mark stands at 17.5%.

Now if one remembers the results of the presidential elections, the 4 candidates were above this mark and theoretically would qualify.

In the hypothesis that the level of participation to both elections are equal, then:
- Macron (En Marche) would be present in 540 districts
-Jean-Luc Melanchon would qualify in 462 districts
- Fillon in 435 districts
- MLP in 415 districts
- the small candidates ( Hamon, Dupont, etc) 1 each.

That would mean, many districts with 4 candidates, and if one takes into consideration that two first statistics (Le Pen ahead in 216, and with over 30% in 85 of them), that could send many FN candidates to the parliament.
Melanchon could prevail in many districts also and send a number of "communist" representatives not seen since 1981.
The Repiublicains (ex-fillon) could also keep some strongholds.

In such a scenario, there would be :
238 districts with 4 candidates
225 districts with 3 candidates
114 districts with 2 candidates (needing to reach 50%+1, very difficult for MLP, and also Melanchon), but they could get a chance in the vast majority of the disticts.

In this case, Macron who promised that 50% of its candidates would not come from the existent political sphere, but from civil society, would take a risk, as the "bond" between a candidate and its districts in such election have an influence.

BUT
If the participation falls to 55% (which is usual for election for congress in France), then the picture change completely:
Macron (En Marche!) would qualify in 427 districts
MLP (FN) would qualify in 295 districts
Melanchon in 237 districts
Les Republicains in 227 districts

But with a huge difference:
There will be no second round with 4 candidates
Only 32 with three candidates
the 545 left would only oppose 2 candidates.

If that were to be the case, then one could see the Congress shared between Les Republicains and En Marche, and would reproduce the usual scenario that MLP although representing 10.000.000 voters only gets a few seats (3-5) while Melanchon would get also a few (1-5).
In this case, one can expect a +3% bounce of European Stock exchanges, and a huge deal of social frustrations, hence the famous "third round", with like 40% of the population excluded from any democratic representations. But everyone else would be happy, for the next 5 years at least.

What form would have the Macron's government? Who knows, and basically who cares?
Both "The Republicains" and "En marche" agree on the most important thing: the continuation of the neo-liberalism within the EU, and that is really the only thing that matters for the Establishment (political and economical).
What is at stake here is no longer the tiny variations between a political program from the right or the left, The EU will dictate what to do on the most important issues, the promises of "reforms" of the treaties will disappear within weeks - as i said, there is no ways of reforming within the structure, the only way is to renegotiate with the threat of a potential "exit", and even then, it is almost impossible. But a promise is a promise, so they all give them.
Given the situation the winners will face, it is preferable to dilute the responsibilities, so i guess a form of "co-habitation" and a government of "national union" would be negotiated.

In this case, which is the most probable to date, we'll gain 5 years of "turbulent normality" which would end into a full scale "revolutionary mood" by 2022.

Things to follow next week will be how MLP scores in the North /East/ South East, and how many districts will give her over 50%.ç

In any case:
2./ Turbulence
3./ YES

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:03 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:57 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/29/france-election-neofascism-le-pen-macron


Thanks,
the article translates the spirit well.

In my post i wanted to outline the current paradox:
while the threat of an almost impossible win by MLP is used to mobilize for the Presidential - and as a matter of fact, the more people vote the less % she will get, this attitude would provoke the opposite effect for the Legislative elections in June: the higher the participation, the greater the chance to see extremist representatives elected, and the greater the chance to face a "majority issue".

So i was wondering if there would be such call to vote in June... ;)

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:18 am

Balsamo wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/29/france-election-neofascism-le-pen-macron


Thanks,
the article translates the spirit well.

In my post i wanted to outline the current paradox:
while the threat of an almost impossible win by MLP is used to mobilize for the Presidential - and as a matter of fact, the more people vote the less % she will get, this attitude would provoke the opposite effect for the Legislative elections in June: the higher the participation, the greater the chance to see extremist representatives elected, and the greater the chance to face a "majority issue".

So i was wondering if there would be such call to vote in June... ;)


Let's worry about the June vote in June. If the Vichy/OAS bastard traitor {!#%@} scum don't have their pick as the President they will be limited as to the change that they can impart.

La France Ne Tombera Pas Encort!

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:03 am

Jeff_36 wrote:
Balsamo wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/29/france-election-neofascism-le-pen-macron


Thanks,
the article translates the spirit well.

In my post i wanted to outline the current paradox:
while the threat of an almost impossible win by MLP is used to mobilize for the Presidential - and as a matter of fact, the more people vote the less % she will get, this attitude would provoke the opposite effect for the Legislative elections in June: the higher the participation, the greater the chance to see extremist representatives elected, and the greater the chance to face a "majority issue".

So i was wondering if there would be such call to vote in June... ;)


Let's worry about the June vote in June. If the Vichy/OAS bastard traitor {!#%@} scum don't have their pick as the President they will be limited as to the change that they can impart.

La France Ne Tombera Pas Encort!


:lol:
the OAS, Jeff? Where did you get this?
I know that Macron tried this, just proving that being a banker does not require knowledge of history. The Front National was created in 1972, 15 years after the OAS.
The support of a "French Algeria" was just more spread than just within some nationalist circles.
I am not saying that there were no nostalgic of the colony within the FN, but you can find some in every movement.

Concerning the political support of the OAS, the most famous is Georges Bidault, who was president of the CNR (Conseil National de la Resistance), an organization quite close to the General.

Here is the most famous picture of Bidault:
Image

That being said, i doubt MLP is expecting to become president, i don't think she and her party is ready for that. And again, the President has enormous powers on paper but only if he is supported by a majority in Congress, which is still unthinkable for the FN...yet.
Hence the importance of the June election which is part of the same issue.
And just so that you know, the electoral campaign for the Legislative start officially one week after the new president is elected.

anyway, i just wanted to pòint out the paradox: The higher the participation, the higher the chance MLP will be in the low 30%, but the higher the participation in June, the higher the chance to see dozens of FN representatives being elected.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:31 am

Balsamo wrote:
:lol:
the OAS, Jeff? Where did you get this?


JMLP was a member back in the day.

I know that Macron tried this, just proving that being a banker does not require knowledge of history. The Front National was created in 1972, 15 years after the OAS.


Everyone knows that, but many of the original FN people had been members of the OAS.

The support of a "French Algeria" was just more spread than just within some nationalist circles.


Obviously. The entire Peid Noir population supported it. I was merely referring to her background and her families background.

That being said, i doubt MLP is expecting to become president, i don't think she and her party is ready for that. And again, the President has enormous powers on paper but only if he is supported by a majority in Congress, which is still unthinkable for the FN...yet.
Hence the importance of the June election which is part of the same issue.
And just so that you know, the electoral campaign for the Legislative start officially one week after the new president is elected.
[/quote]

Mitterand did not have a majority government for a good period of his 14 year rule - hence the cohabitations, and I can't see why Fillon won't be a willing partner to Macron.
Last edited by Jeff_36 on Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:41 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:23 am

Jeff:

Mitterand did not have a majority government for a good period of his 14 year rule - hence the cohabitations, and I can't see why Fillon won't be a willing partner to Macron.


Yes, but things were different then. The President was elected for a term of 7 years, while the congress was elected each 5 years.
So yes, he was forced into cohabitation twice:
Elected in 1981, he lost the legislative in 1986, reelected in 1989, he lost again in 1993.
So Mitterand ruled with a majority for a 5 years term twice and had to concede a cohabitation for 2 years term also twice.
That would be 4 years out of 14 years -

President Chirac who succeeded him in 1995 tried to prevent the omen by organizing "preemptive" elections in 1997 that he actually lost, hence a 5 years cohabitation with the Socialist that will end only in 2002.

The truth is that cohabitation means that the President LOST a legislative election, and that he is therefore FORCED to govern with a government that belongs to an other political party. It is not the same as a "alliance" or a team of partners.

Just for your information, Fillon is now out of the game and will probably be prosecuted by the Justice, so he is out.
The traditional Right is more divided than ever: Fillon's successor has called to vote against Le Pen, but not for Macron.
The next president has no established political party, no real popularity, is no historical figure, is more or less nothing really, so from there everything is new and unprecedented. He will have about three weeks to turn his movements into a political force within the Congress, and that is the issue.

Those now in charge of "the Republicains" (The right, former Fillon) will take their chances in the June elections and try to force the President into a cohabitation. No president of the Republic wants this kind of things. They will let the voters decide, but won't "ally" the new president before. Such things does not happen in France and in French politic.
The Socialist Party is dying, so it has no other choice than trying to revive by holding to the seats it has, in a context of civil wars, as many of its personalities have already joined Macron.
We will see how things will turn out, but theoretically, it is the parties that endorse the candidates, the same way, it is the parties that receive public money for the campaign, based on the precedent results.
Theoretically, the movement "En Marche", even after Macron is elected, will have no right for public funding for its campaign, so will once again have to borrow the money. If things goes well, it will be reimbursed at pro rata of its results.

The issue is that for each vote, the Political Parties will receive 1.6 Euros (1.8 USD) for each vote received, so there will be no friendship before the results.

This is why in this exceptional context, one just cannot make a distinction between the two elections.
We are in uncharted territories here. ;)

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:24 pm

Douthat (Ass-hat?) has a column in today's NY Times supporting Le Pen. OTOH, what is it with the Anglophone media that causes such little coverage in it of this most important election?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:40 pm

Reuters piece suggesting, based on recent polls, that Macron will win as predicted but that voters are disappointed with both Macron and Le Pen, with centrism and right-wing nationalism, which, as Balsamo has said, makes what comes next critically important for France and Europe.
Last edited by Statistical Mechanic on Mon May 01, 2017 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Mon May 01, 2017 12:27 am

There is nothing that Balsamo has said that is not correct in this context. However, my original point is that a poor performance by En Marce will not necessarily mean the end of Macron or the rise of Le Pen. We will likely not hear from Le pen after this is said and done - she will be superseded by other voices in the far right camp by 2022 methinks, and they will not have her popular appeal.

My point about cohabitation was that, in essence, despite it all, Macron will still be President, and he will be working with a party that does not support the insane nonsense that the FN does.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 01, 2017 6:17 am

sorry i missed the following point

Jeff:

JMLP was a member back in the day.


This is why i ask for your sources. The links are tiny. I am not saying that he may not have sympathy for the OAS, like a great deal of the French Army in those days that really considered de Gaulle as a traitor. And even the greatest fan of the General would concede that the "Algerian chapter" is not his most memorable.
As far as i know, Le Pen was a typical soldier, he fought in indochina in 1954-55, then was elected representative at the French Parliament in 1956, he engaged as volunteer for 6 months in Algeria in his former regiment. He will return decorated.

Now the OAS is a tough topic and cannot be reduced to some far-fight racist fanatics.
Actually, the inner circle of it were originally very close to the general, having followed him in 1940, among them nationalist of course, which is send back to the ironic fact that many of the pre-war nationalists (close to the "Action francaise", and even La Cagoule) were numerous among the first Resistants (Resistants de la premiere heure)...while they are now automatically by reflex and association assimilated to Vichy.
Of course, some chose the other side, like Darnand.

Jeff:
Obviously. The entire Peid Noir population supported it. I was merely referring to her background and her families background.


Hence, the limits of your "guilty by association" approach.
I mean Jean Marie Le Pen is despicable enough for not having to invent a dark past. His words, his thoughts, his speeches are well enough to condemn him.
Moral accusations - fancy today - to accuse a soldier active in an intelligence service of torture for example is close to absurd. To reduce the OAS to Jean Marie Le Pen without any proof, is just a way to distract the people of the truth of what the OAS really was, reduce the "issue of Algeria" to some simplistic association between fascism/far right/ terrorism while ignoring the whole story.
Behind the OAS there are names that are still not wise to mention in France today, names that have deep roots in the French Resistance of the first hour, names very close to the general.

The OAS was not a political organization, it was not even ideologically motivated, its a a gathering of people from all sides within the French military gathered to keep Algeria and the "national integrity of the nation" intact. Remember that Algeria was not a colony like Indochina but a french department with a french population of over a million, considered 100% part of the Republic.

Amnesty will start as soon as 1964, and the whole case will be dealt with in a specific French way: let's bury the mess, and today let's attritute the whole thing to the far right. Good for them, and let's forget the names of Bidault (who was the successor or Jean Moulin), or Louis Debre...cased closed or so we are told.

The front National has a story on its own. And here too, you'll find some nasty political implications (the role of president Mitterand).
But most of those things are irrelevant today as the FN is no longer a cause, but a consequence, most people who cast a vote for it just don't give a {!#%@} about the past.

Statmec:
Douthat (Ass-hat?) has a column in today's NY Times supporting Le Pen. OTOH, what is it with the Anglophone media that causes such little coverage in it of this most important election?


I don't know who Douthat is, but indeed the coverage is poor, just like a "google news", with everyone copy/pasting the article of each others. And you are right, this election is important and should deserve more "in depth" coverage...
I guess things will get more serious and taken more seriously in 5 years... :roll:

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Mon May 01, 2017 6:32 am

Jeff_36 wrote:There is nothing that Balsamo has said that is not correct in this context. However, my original point is that a poor performance by En Marce will not necessarily mean the end of Macron or the rise of Le Pen. We will likely not hear from Le pen after this is said and done - she will be superseded by other voices in the far right camp by 2022 methinks, and they will not have her popular appeal.

My point about cohabitation was that, in essence, despite it all, Macron will still be President, and he will be working with a party that does not support the insane nonsense that the FN does.


Sorry have not seen that before.
Shortly, it is not a matter of persons: It is not about individuals like Macon or MLP, but it is about "what it used to be" and "revolutionary protests". Le Pen has been rising for the last 15 years. Look at the polls, they currently forecast 40%...that means that all the existent political forces - if this score is confirmed - would only represent 60%... 1 Party FN 40% vs all the rest 60%.
If she gets 40%, she will not disappear, she will celebrate. If Macron does less than 60%+, there is worry ahead. Chirac, who was the most unpopular by 2002 managed to get 82%...Do you realize the slide it would represent?
MLP is still young, and she has been on a winning path for the last 5 years. Why do you think anyone in her party would want to replace her, in the first place?
She will be there in 5 years.
The only thing we can hope is that Melanchon - who is 20 years older - will still be there too.

And if Marine for one reason or another would have to go, there is the quite attractive niece - Marion Le Pen - who is under thirty, she got 48% in the whole region of PACA in the last elections, 4 points better than her Aunty in the North.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 01, 2017 11:48 am

First round votes, 2012
Socialists (Hollande) 10.3m
UMP (Sarkozy) 8.8m
FN (Le Pen) 6.4m
Left Front (Mélenchon) 4.0m
Others 5.3m

First round votes, 2017
En Marche! (Macron) 8.7m
FN (Le Pen) 7.7m
Republicans (Fillon) 7.2m
FI (Mélenchon) 7.1m
Others 5.4m

+/-
Le Pen +1.3m
Mélenchon +3.1m
Socialists -8.1m
Conservatives -1.1m

Like Balsamo, I don't see why Le Pen and FN would "disappear" when they have grown their first round share significantly in the past five years. FN gained one spot in the first round, showing an ability to navigate the turmoil, and grew its number of votes by 20%. Why would Le Pen count this as losing? As Balsamo has been saying, the winners are the "outsiders" (far left and far right - strong critics of the status quo) while the conservatives have lost ground and the centrists are in turmoil, the Socialists all but dead and a new, untested party, without organizational and congressional strength, likely to win the presidency. The underlying economic and social conditions seem set to persist, so why would Le Pen give up now, having come so far in this context?

The idea that "Macron wins, the crisis is over, Le Pen is vanquished" seems like a political fairy tale told in ignorance of the conditions that have led to the FN's growth and the Mélenchon phenomenon.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby iwh » Mon May 01, 2017 11:59 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Reuters piece suggesting, based on recent polls, that Macron will win as predicted but that voters are disappointed with both Macron and Le Pen, with centrism and right-wing nationalism, which, as Balsamo has said, makes what comes next critically important for France and Europe.


I have friends in the north of France who say exactly that; neither candidates are particularly popular, but it is important that people vote. Charlie Hebdo has done a cartoon showing a variety of people giving excuses for NOT voting...and then regretting the fact that they didn't vote on seeing MLP being elected President.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Mon May 01, 2017 10:59 pm

Leaving aside the prediction in this piece, Jeff_36, what do you make of its description of the shortcomings of Macron and the reasons to doubt his success as president?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Tue May 02, 2017 12:29 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Leaving aside the prediction in this piece, Jeff_36, what do you make of its description of the shortcomings of Macron and the reasons to doubt his success as president?


Just when i wrote that there were no in depth articles, here comes Tonneau...
And it is very good.
there is not much to add to it.

PS:
Being in a suicidal mood, have lost 3 hours of my life watching the two candidates 1st of May meeting.
Too stunned to make a report. But my first impressions confirms Tonneau: Macron still don't get it, while it hurts to say that MLP performance was impressive. With another name, and supported by another political party she would probably be elected next Sunday.

I am pretty sure that within a year the Front National will change its name.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 12:58 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Leaving aside the prediction in this piece, Jeff_36, what do you make of its description of the shortcomings of Macron and the reasons to doubt his success as president?


I honestly don't think that Macron will do any better as President than Hollande did. But Le Pen will not win next week and she won't even be around in 2022.

Why? Because her purges of the FN have not been well received by some of the more ideologically puristic elements of the party, and I have long suspected that those same elements will use her inevitable defeat at the hands of Macron as a pretext to break out the proverbial long knives. She will be dispatched in an internal party coup, someone roughly as insane with much less aptitude for veiling his/her venom in public will replace her, and the FN will be banished to the fringes where it lurched out of.

The real threat to Macron in 2022 will come from whoever replaces Fillon, and Melenchon, who can express the same populism as Le Pen without the Nazi element that will always keep her out of office.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 1:15 am

and BTW Balsamo: her niece is about a 7 at best.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 1:24 am

For the record gentlemen, I am not especially enamored of Macron - for me he comes across as something of a wastrel, a very well educated wastrel, but a wastrel nonetheless. He is in may ways a much smarter, and less gelded/effeminate version of Justin Trudeau. And you all know how I feel about La Petit Fille Justine.

But right now, like it our not, he is our wastrel, and we must hope that he wins not because of anything that he represents or seeks to achieve, but rather due to who opposes him.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 1:27 am

I don't know the inner workings of the FN. From afar, Le Pen should have a strong hand, having led the party to its biggest success - with this Macron in the presidency and the social-political crisis continuing. The bulk of the party, again judging from afar, seems to want power. I don't think, once again from afar, that the FN expected to win this year and that their performance will be a disappointment. From what I read, Le Pen has been succeeding and getting the FN progressively closer to the power its members want. It seems more likely that a farther-right coup against Le Pen would marginalize the conspirators (compare her father's position today to Marine's . . . ) . . . but Balsamo will know better than I . . .

This niece, Marion, MP since 2012, seven years old? I don't think so . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 1:30 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:This niece, Marion, MP since 2012, seven years old? I don't think so . . .


I was referring to a seven on a scale of 1 to 10. :lol:

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 1:33 am

Jeff_36 wrote:For the record gentlemen, I am not especially enamored of Macron - for me he comes across as something of a wastrel, a very well educated wastrel, but a wastrel nonetheless. He is in may ways a much smarter, and less gelded/effeminate version of Justin Trudeau. And you all know how I feel about La Petit Fille Justine.

But right now, like it our not, he is our wastrel, and we must hope that he wins not because of anything that he represents or seeks to achieve, but rather due to who opposes him.

This isn't really about who we like or not but what the social and political forces are.

That's why I've asked Balsamo, who knows infinitely more about this than I do, a whole bunch of questions.

Macron was, until last year, remember, Hollande's Minister of Economy - that is, a key minister in a disastrous government and architect of some of its least popular actions. And he insists that he will pursue basically the same policies that have fractured the country. Which is why my first question for Balsamo was whether there was any possibility of the Mélenchon folks driving a bargain with Macron, to bring him their way. Balsamo convinced me that it is not possible.

The point I keep getting to is what happens next. With a weak Macron government in the vein promised . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 1:34 am

Uh ok, not sure why but . . . uh, ok.
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 1:45 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:
Jeff_36 wrote:For the record gentlemen, I am not especially enamored of Macron - for me he comes across as something of a wastrel, a very well educated wastrel, but a wastrel nonetheless. He is in may ways a much smarter, and less gelded/effeminate version of Justin Trudeau. And you all know how I feel about La Petit Fille Justine.

But right now, like it our not, he is our wastrel, and we must hope that he wins not because of anything that he represents or seeks to achieve, but rather due to who opposes him.

This isn't really about who we like or not but what the social and political forces are.

That's why I've asked Balsamo, who knows infinitely more about this than I do, a whole bunch of questions.

Macron was, until last year, remember, Hollande's Minister of Economy - that is, a key minister in a disastrous government and architect of some of its least popular actions. And he insists that he will pursue basically the same policies that have fractured the country. Which is why my first question for Balsamo was whether there was any possibility of the Mélenchon folks driving a bargain with Macron, to bring him their way. Balsamo convinced me that it is not possible.

The point I keep getting to is what happens next. With a weak Macron government in the vein promised . . .


The next few years will not be easy for France. It will be a slightly better managed and much less corrupt version of the Hollande years, so still a net negative basically.

But I caution against predicting that Melenchon will break into serious contention in 2022, or that Le Pen will win off the back of Macron's inevitable shortfalls. Why? Because as the past two years have shown us amply, predicting the future in today's political climate is a fools game. Who in 2011 could have foreseen that America would be ruled by an outrageously dim-witted former realty TV actor in 2017? Who in 2010 could have foreseen that Canada would vote overwhelmingly for a lazy, prancing, trust fund guzzling, illiterate playboy in 2015? Who in 2011 could have foreseen that Britain would separate from the EU and that the hard left would take over the labor party in 2016?

In sum: let's not predict the unpredictable.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 1:54 am

Jeff_36 wrote:But I caution against predicting that Melenchon will break into serious contention in 2022, or that Le Pen will win off the back of Macron's inevitable shortfalls.

I made neither prediction. I didn't buy your prediction that Marine Le Pen is done for after this election. In fact, I didn't make any prediction - except that the choice of Macron is unlikely to solve any of the basic problems facing the country, including that of the FN.

On Mélenchon I specifically wrote that I'm under the impression he won't run in '22, so my predicting his triumph or near triumph then is out of the question.

Jeff_36 wrote:Because as the past two years have shown us amply, predicting the future in today's political climate is a fools game.

Then why are you predicting Le Pen's disappearance?

Jeff_36 wrote:Who in 2011 could have foreseen that America would be ruled by an outrageously dim-witted former realty TV actor in 2017?

David Souter?

Jeff_36 wrote:In sum: let's not predict the unpredictable.

Right. It isn't clear what happens next . . .
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 1:57 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:Then why are you predicting Le Pen's disappearance?


I was guessing, and using my knowledge of the history of fascist movements as an indicator. But realistically? I cannot claim clairvoyance.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 2:02 am

In sum: let's not predict the unpredictable. :)
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 2:04 am

Statistical Mechanic wrote:In sum: let's not predict the unpredictable. :)


I just can't see a country that was invaded by Nazi Germany fall to it's latter day apologists.

But I do not claim clairvoyance.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Xcalibur » Tue May 02, 2017 2:23 am

Well you just saw a country which wasn't occupied fall to an orange, fat, fascist {!#%@} with delusions of godliness.... WILLINGLY. So i don't find your premise all that strange.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 12:25 pm

The English-language press can't pass by a good scandal, though: "France election: Le Pen accused of plagiarising Fillon"
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 12:25 pm

Jeff_36 wrote:
Statistical Mechanic wrote:In sum: let's not predict the unpredictable. :)


I just can't see a country that was invaded by Nazi Germany fall to it's latter day apologists.

But the prediction we were discussing wasn't that but rather that Le Pen would disappear after this election . . . ?
"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Statistical Mechanic » Tue May 02, 2017 1:17 pm

"World peace is certainly an ideal worth striving for; in Hitler's opinion it will be realizable only when one power, the racially best one, has attained complete and uncontested supremacy. That can then provide a sort of world police, seeing to it at the same time that the most valuable race is guaranteed the necessary living space. And if no other way is open to them, the lower races will have to restrict themselves accordingly."

- Rudolf Hess, letter, 1927

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Jeff_36 » Tue May 02, 2017 4:10 pm

Statistical Mechanic wrote:POLITICO on Le Pen's long shot: http://www.politico.eu/article/how-mari ... el-macron/


I think everything rests on the debates. The one thing that worries me is that , in so far as their respective debate skills are concerned, Le pen is apparently much more serious about preparation than Trump. She won't go off on insane fugue tangents about ten yer olds who are great at computers.

Macron needs to come out swinging here, and he needs to be nasty. Invoke history, and portray himself as the ideological inheritor of the values and creed of the Resistance, and Le Pen as the modern incarnation of Petain. Quote De Gualle, and compare the prospect of a Le Pen victory to the Fall of France in 1940. Call her a dirty rotten fascist invader who is unwelcome, ect. ect. He needs to display toughness. Even use some cursewords if possible.

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Re: France '42-'44: La Grande Rafle & beyond

Postby Balsamo » Tue May 02, 2017 8:12 pm

Jeff:

Macron needs to come out swinging here, and he needs to be nasty. Invoke history, and portray himself as the ideological inheritor of the values and creed of the Resistance,


:lol: :lol: :lol:
Invoke history? he does not know it.
He already did, though by stating very "popular" principles such as "there is no French culture" or "French Art" (although there is a ministry of "culture" in France, and that the government is providing funds to museums, cinema, music, and French Art in general)
During a visit in Algeria, he also stated that France was indeed guilty of no less than "crimes against humanity", while not mentioning the word "Germany" during a visit at Oradour.

As for this golden boy to pretend being the ideological heir of the values of the Resistance, i don't think he would dare.

Le Pen as the modern incarnation of Petain. Quote De Gualle, and compare the prospect of a Le Pen victory to the Fall of France in 1940. Call her a dirty rotten fascist invader who is unwelcome, ect. ect. He needs to display toughness. Even use some cursewords if possible.


Do you secretly want Le Pen to win? :lol:
Because such advice might very well do the trick.

This was basically the strategy in the 90's up to 2002, but back then, it came from people who at least had known the general. But the results of this strategy over the long haul, given the current situation, has been highly debatable, to say the least.
It worked in 2002, as the second debate was cancelled, and about 4.5 millions went down to the streets to demonstrate. There were between 60 and 200.000 (?) on Monday, and a majority from the "neither...nor" movement.

What changed during those 15 years? Everything.
Back then, JMLP performance was not only a shock and a surprise, but also a matter of luck, a perfect combination of circumstances. Back then, the confidence between the people and the politics was not completely broken.

The original sin, which you might not be aware of, was 2005, when the new and very liberal constitution of the EU was proposed to the people by referendum.
The people voted against it with a substantial majority of 54.5%...But the ruling parties then decided that the people was too immature and signed the European constitution, just the same as what happened with the Euro back in the 90's.
Three years later the banking crisis exploded and ruined most States which had to cut down the social welfare drastically (and they are still doing it every year).

Today trying to brandish the threat of hypothetical regiment of brown shirts marching down the Champs-Elysee, the threat of some kind of "collaboration" and a Vichy regime, well just miss the point as today people have enough REAL fears to deal with: between terrorists attacks by Islamist's, daily relocation of factories, closing of others, with a level of bankruptcy among small enterprises and businesses which cannot afford to compete with eastern European underpaid workers and companies from the East, and now hundreds of thousands of migrants from the middle East, along the usual flow from Africa (flow even stronger since Libya can no longer stop them)...Those threats are real and perceived.

It is insane to still think that 40% of the voters have feelings for fascism, or nostalgic of Petain.
And sorry to say, but Macron is not even a molecule of de Gaulle, he is a small nothing promoted by big money, the corporation, the banking system, and the European Union. They all want to keep their neo-liberal EU intact : they love being able to hire polish workers at 4 euros an hour, to pay the social taxes to Poland, they want to continue building cars in Romania and selling them to the French, while the Banks wants more and more powers to create money instead of the State, everyone there is fine with millions of refugees who will drags down the salaries, bankrupt the national social welfare systems...

Now if we want a "long term" win, then all those real threats have to be addressed, but the irony is that it is not possible. The situation is the direct results of the treaties signed within the EU since 2005, and you cannot change them without the cooperation of 27 members of the EU, unless you threat the EU to leave if not listened to. That is the sad fact. And the problem is that the EU is an impersonal administrative monster, it has no real heads, there is no one to blame.
So basically on all these issues, Macron can just lie and sell stories.
It is because it is getting harder every year that some conceived a solution, that is to promote the far right, to raise it enough so an easy win could be obtain in the second round.

It is a dangerous game of course, and historically the elite tend to underestimate the people's anger, and its capacity to revolt. But there is a point of rupture, even in the XXI century. We have been through a lot of revolutions in Europe, please remember.
The three conditions met in every one of those revolutions are:
- a weak authority
- a bankrupt State
- historically high inequality (economical)
Guess were we stand?

You wrote that it is unpredictable, well it is not, unfortunately. It has just been too predictable since 2005. Even if it is a job, actually. Writing studies analyzing the potential prospects is what Think Tanks do, as well as some department within the Universities, along with State's organizations, etc.
There are tools and methodology for that. The job is not to look into a crystal ball, but to identify possible outcomes and to attribute them a level of probability.

The only good news was Melanchon's performance, as that was not expected. Many took the far left - dead and burried - for granted after 1989. It starts to come back like Podemos in Spain, in Greece, now in France with Melanchon, in Belgium where the PTB is now the second political party in Walonia (while Flanders chose the far right (NVA), that could steal some of the new wave of the far right's stamina, but then only a blind would not see how close we are to the situation of the 1930's, with two revolutionary programs - one from the left and the other from the right - smashing the "democratic elite" form both sides.

Will Macron - this little chick, with no experience at all, who has never been elected, who is a ultra-liberal of the dirtiest kind (the hypocritical kind) - be the new de Gaulle that would prevent a new 1940 (only the image)?
That is a joke.

So he will win in Sunday, that is 98% sure. But the results will have to be deeply looked into and analyzed.
The margins will be crucial, and things are not looking well right now, with MLP within the 40% before the "debate" that she could win if she is well prepared. A Macron win within the 50% would be a disaster.
Then, the June elections will be the most important since 1958.


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