The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Creationism, Intelligent Design, and Evolution.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:07 pm

Kevin: we both ran our mouths about the same. the difference?............... Direction.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Feb 08, 2017 4:32 pm

Zosimus wrote:This "Skeptics Society" doesn't seem that skeptical, really. Perhaps the name should be changed to the nod-in-unison society.

The usual response to "They didn't like my really great idea!"

Image
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby OlegTheBatty » Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:45 pm

We shake our heads because there was nodding to it.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gord » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:35 am

Zosimus wrote:...So then at 3:00 the narrator asks, "How improbable does something need to be before we can reasonably rule out random chance?" Well, the answer to this is known...kind of, in an appeal to the inappropriately named Borel's Law, which should probably be more aptly named Borel's Rule of Thumb. Basically, the idea is that things that have 1 chance in 1x10^50 or greater never actually occur whereas things that are more likely than that do occur... maybe... sometimes....

Ohhhh, "Borel's Law"! I missed that the first time.

http://www.aetheling.com/essays/Borel.html

Borel's Law and Creationism

by Loren Cobb

...Until today, I had never heard of this "Borel's Law," despite a long career spent as an applied mathematician. It turns out that creationists have been using an idea of Emile Borel, which they call "Borel's Law," to support their probability argument against the theory of evolution....

...Very simply, Borel said that events with a probability on the "cosmic" scale of 1 in 1050 simply will not happen. That's it, that's all there is to "Borel's Law." Creationists have jumped on this "Law" to justify their calculation that life cannot possibly have happened by evolution alone because it's probability falls under this threshold....

...should be its...
...Borel left time out of his rule of thumb because he wanted to simplify these kinds of problems for those too innumerate to follow a more complex argument. Unfortunately, in so doing he oversimplified, and opened the door to all manner of misinterpretations. All by itself, the simple absence of time in an invocation of "Borel's Law" is sufficient to completely invalidate a creationist argument....

Since time was immeasurable and conceptually meaningless "before" the Big Bang, it can't be a factor in determining the probability of the Big Bang occurring.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal ... lity_bound

The idea that events with fantastically small, but positive probabilities, are effectively negligible was discussed by the French mathematician Émile Borel primarily in the context of cosmology and statistical mechanics. However, there is no widely accepted scientific basis for claiming that certain positive values are universal cutoff points for effective negligibility of events. Borel, in particular, was careful to point out that negligibility was relative to a model of probability for a specific physical system. [Though Dembski credits Borel for the idea, there is clear evidence that Borel, following accepted scientific practice in the foundations of statistics, was not referring to a universal bound, independent of the statistical model used.]

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html

To evaluate the chance that physical laws such as Newtonian mechanics or laws related to the propagation of light could be wrong, Borel discusses probabilities that are negligible on a "cosmic scale", Borel asserts that 10-50 represents a negligible event on the cosmic scale as it is well below one over the product of the number of observable stars (109) times the number of observations that humans could make on those stars (1020).

Neither the number of observable stars nor the number of observations that humans could make on those stars has anything to do with the probability of the universe arising in the first place.

So, not a law, and not being used properly.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:09 pm

Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Zosimus wrote:This "Skeptics Society" doesn't seem that skeptical, really. Perhaps the name should be changed to the nod-in-unison society.

The usual response to "They didn't like my really great idea!"

Image

If your argument contained a logical argument, I would respond to it. As it does not, I suppose this is the best response you deserve.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:18 pm

Gord wrote:
Zosimus wrote:...So then at 3:00 the narrator asks, "How improbable does something need to be before we can reasonably rule out random chance?" Well, the answer to this is known...kind of, in an appeal to the inappropriately named Borel's Law, which should probably be more aptly named Borel's Rule of Thumb. Basically, the idea is that things that have 1 chance in 1x10^50 or greater never actually occur whereas things that are more likely than that do occur... maybe... sometimes....

Ohhhh, "Borel's Law"! I missed that the first time.

http://www.aetheling.com/essays/Borel.html

Borel's Law and Creationism

by Loren Cobb

...Until today, I had never heard of this "Borel's Law," despite a long career spent as an applied mathematician. It turns out that creationists have been using an idea of Emile Borel, which they call "Borel's Law," to support their probability argument against the theory of evolution....

...Very simply, Borel said that events with a probability on the "cosmic" scale of 1 in 1050 simply will not happen. That's it, that's all there is to "Borel's Law." Creationists have jumped on this "Law" to justify their calculation that life cannot possibly have happened by evolution alone because it's probability falls under this threshold....

...should be its...
...Borel left time out of his rule of thumb because he wanted to simplify these kinds of problems for those too innumerate to follow a more complex argument. Unfortunately, in so doing he oversimplified, and opened the door to all manner of misinterpretations. All by itself, the simple absence of time in an invocation of "Borel's Law" is sufficient to completely invalidate a creationist argument....

Since time was immeasurable and conceptually meaningless "before" the Big Bang, it can't be a factor in determining the probability of the Big Bang occurring.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal ... lity_bound

The idea that events with fantastically small, but positive probabilities, are effectively negligible was discussed by the French mathematician Émile Borel primarily in the context of cosmology and statistical mechanics. However, there is no widely accepted scientific basis for claiming that certain positive values are universal cutoff points for effective negligibility of events. Borel, in particular, was careful to point out that negligibility was relative to a model of probability for a specific physical system. [Though Dembski credits Borel for the idea, there is clear evidence that Borel, following accepted scientific practice in the foundations of statistics, was not referring to a universal bound, independent of the statistical model used.]

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html

To evaluate the chance that physical laws such as Newtonian mechanics or laws related to the propagation of light could be wrong, Borel discusses probabilities that are negligible on a "cosmic scale", Borel asserts that 10-50 represents a negligible event on the cosmic scale as it is well below one over the product of the number of observable stars (109) times the number of observations that humans could make on those stars (1020).

Neither the number of observable stars nor the number of observations that humans could make on those stars has anything to do with the probability of the universe arising in the first place.

So, not a law, and not being used properly.

Congratulations! That is the best refutation-by-agreement post I have seen in a long time!!

For those in the audience who don't know what refutation by agreement is, that's where someone posts a long-winded post in which he basically agrees with everything the original poster has said and then pretends that this post somehow refutes what has gone before.

There's only one thing I'd like to disagree with you on. There is a Borel's Law. It states:



And you would have known that if you had bothered to Google it and not pick from axe-to-grind atheist sites.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:47 pm

Zosimus wrote:
Gawdzilla Sama wrote:
Zosimus wrote:This "Skeptics Society" doesn't seem that skeptical, really. Perhaps the name should be changed to the nod-in-unison society.

The usual response to "They didn't like my really great idea!"

Image

If your argument contained a logical argument, I would respond to it. As it does not, I suppose this is the best response you deserve.

You really need to look up the word "disdain", my child.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:04 pm

He also needs to look up Borel's Law ...
Here - this'll do ...
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Borel's_Law

... which has this pertinent comment:
"In order for you to exist, your parents had to have sex exactly at a given time. One particular sperm cell had to fertilize one particular egg. Taking this back only a few generations we quickly reach the limit of Borel's "law". You, Sir, are therefore impossible."

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Thu Feb 09, 2017 5:54 pm

Poodle wrote:He also needs to look up Borel's Law ...
Here - this'll do ...
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Borel's_Law

... which has this pertinent comment:
"In order for you to exist, your parents had to have sex exactly at a given time. One particular sperm cell had to fertilize one particular egg. Taking this back only a few generations we quickly reach the limit of Borel's "law". You, Sir, are therefore impossible."

Congratulations! Your logical fallacy is false dichotomy. Your argument, bluntly put, is that either someone occurred purely by chance or someone could not have occurred at all.

Given that the point of this whole thread is to determine whether some unknown entity may have had some hand in the matter, (God, Allah, Zeus, Woden, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, you name it) the above-mentioned thread of logic actually serves quite well as a demonstration that some other factor might well have been involved.

Since the odds against your existence are astronomically large, yet you exist, there might be some other factor involved. Something like "design" or "supernatural intervention" or "an infinite improbability device."

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Thu Feb 09, 2017 7:02 pm

Nah! Not my argument at all, Zosimus. In fact, it's yours ...

"Since the odds against your existence are astronomically large, yet you exist, there might be some other factor involved."

You may have noticed the 'might' in there, which you have misinterpreted as 'must have been'. But let me rephrase it for you. "Since the odds against my existence are astronomically large, yet I exist, then you shouldn't bet on horses." See where I'm going with this? Or you could read this ...
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:25 pm

Poodle wrote:Nah! Not my argument at all, Zosimus. In fact, it's yours ...

"Since the odds against your existence are astronomically large, yet you exist, there might be some other factor involved."

You may have noticed the 'might' in there, which you have misinterpreted as 'must have been'.

No, might does not mean must have been. Is English your second language?

But let me rephrase it for you. "Since the odds against my existence are astronomically large, yet I exist, then you shouldn't bet on horses." See where I'm going with this? Or you could read this ...
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/borelfaq.html

Oh goodie. A link to an evolution fundie site. What does it say?

The point being, that Borel's Law is a "rule of thumb"...

Wait a minute... what did *I* say?

Well, the answer to this is known...kind of, in an appeal to the inappropriately named Borel's Law, which should probably be more aptly named Borel's Rule of Thumb.

Seems the same to me. On we go...

...that exists on a sliding scale, depending on the phenomenon in question.

Wait a minute... what did *I* say?

...yes, some sliding adjustments might need to be taken into account.

====================================
So, once again, you all think that you're proving me wrong by agreeing with me? Except that this time you have gone so far as to get links that back up what I say as a further attempt to prove me wrong?

How's that working out for you?

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Thu Feb 09, 2017 9:37 pm

Just a minute, Zosimus. How many of you are there? Are you the same Zosimus who posted earlier in this thread or are you a totally different Zosimus?

Will the real Zosimus please stand up?

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby scrmbldggs » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:36 pm

z wrote:...this time you have gone so far as to get links that back up what I say...

Looks more like someone found the page(s) you have been reciting from...
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gord » Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:57 am

Zosimus wrote:There's only one thing I'd like to disagree with you on. There is a Borel's Law.

Neither I nor the websites I linked to said there was no "Borel's law" (although "Borel's theorem" is a good term to use since the law of large numbers is a theorem). The point I and my links were making was that creationists were falsely attributing the title of "law" to something inappropriately, and then misusing what they were naming as a "law".

And you would have known that if you had bothered to Google it and not pick from axe-to-grind atheist sites.

Please learn to read better before attempting to grind your own axe.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:22 pm

Poodle wrote:Just a minute, Zosimus. How many of you are there? Are you the same Zosimus who posted earlier in this thread or are you a totally different Zosimus?

Will the real Zosimus please stand up?

Oh, I get it. You can't follow the argument, so you think that the person making the argument must have changed.

Perhaps it would be more advisable to get reading comprehension lessons.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:23 pm

scrmbldggs wrote:
z wrote:...this time you have gone so far as to get links that back up what I say...

Looks more like someone found the page(s) you have been reciting from...

I would imagine it's far more likely that said page plagiarized me.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:28 pm

Gord wrote:
Zosimus wrote:There's only one thing I'd like to disagree with you on. There is a Borel's Law.

Neither I nor the websites I linked to said there was no "Borel's law" (although "Borel's theorem" is a good term to use since the law of large numbers is a theorem). The point I and my links were making was that creationists were falsely attributing the title of "law" to something inappropriately, and then misusing what they were naming as a "law".

Oh, now I get it! I post something ripping your stupid video to shreds, you cannot refute anything I say, so you attack other people who say different things than I do! This is your "rebuttal," as it were. What's this? Guilt by Association logical fallacy?

Why don't you enroll in one of my logic classes? It would probably help you a great deal.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:10 pm

Zosimus wrote:
scrmbldggs wrote:
z wrote:...this time you have gone so far as to get links that back up what I say...

Looks more like someone found the page(s) you have been reciting from...

I would imagine it's far more likely that said page plagiarized me.

Sorry, this small forum can't hold your ego.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:43 pm

Zosimus wrote: ... Why don't you enroll in one of my logic classes? It would probably help you a great deal.


I'm up for it. As long as you promise not to slide around any longer like a freshly-caught cod. Off you go then - Logic 101 courtesy of Zosimus. I'm sure we'll all benefit.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:23 pm

Poodle wrote:
Zosimus wrote: ... Why don't you enroll in one of my logic classes? It would probably help you a great deal.


I'm up for it. As long as you promise not to slide around any longer like a freshly-caught cod. Off you go then - Logic 101 courtesy of Zosimus. I'm sure we'll all benefit.

Fine. Go to http://www.apexgmat.com/ scroll down to the bottom, click contact us, and fill out the form. In comments put, "I'd like the critical reasoning course, please! Can the Peruvian be my teacher?"

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:34 pm

Ah - you're a salesman. Why didn't you say that in the first place? Now I understand your constant evasions.

PS - for a reasonable fee, I'll correct the English errors strewn around that page. :lol:

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:15 pm

First of all, it's not my page. It's just a company I happen to work for at the moment. I have suggested some improvements of my own. It remains to be seen whether they will be implemented.

Second, your grammar isn't that hot yourself. Who would hire you? What qualifications do you have?

Third, are you familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect?

Finally, I'd like to know whether you have any actual defense for the video posted or whether I'm just wasting my time by speaking to you.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:17 pm

You're wasting your time by posting.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:12 pm

Zosimus wrote:... Finally, I'd like to know whether you have any actual defense for the video posted or whether I'm just wasting my time by speaking to you.


Why would I have a defence for a video I didn't post in the first place? But yes, you're wasting your time. I, on the other hand, am having a whale of a time.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Zosimus » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:23 pm

Well, then, since no one chooses to defend the video, I declare victory.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:28 pm

You can't do that! The 'My Dad's bigger than your Dad' card hasn't been shown yet.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Cadmusteeth » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:11 pm

Zosimus wrote:Well, then, since no one chooses to defend the video, I declare victory.

Was there a debate? Seems like it just poped up out of nowhere.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Matthew Ellard » Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:01 am

Zosimus wrote:Well, then, since no one chooses to defend the video, I declare victory.

Firstly silence is not an affirmative. That's well established basic logic.

Secondly, who here did you think you were debating with? Make a specific claim that allows for a debate.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gord » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:01 am

Zosimus wrote:
Gord wrote:
Zosimus wrote:There's only one thing I'd like to disagree with you on. There is a Borel's Law.

Neither I nor the websites I linked to said there was no "Borel's law" (although "Borel's theorem" is a good term to use since the law of large numbers is a theorem). The point I and my links were making was that creationists were falsely attributing the title of "law" to something inappropriately, and then misusing what they were naming as a "law".

Oh, now I get it! I post something ripping your stupid video to shreds--

Not my video.

--you cannot refute anything I say--

I did refute the one thing I bothered even trying to refute.

--so you attack other people who say different things than I do!

I didn't attack anyone. I correctly pointed out that it was false to attribute the title of "law" to a misunderstood misquote.

Why don't you enroll in one of my logic classes? It would probably help you a great deal.

If your response to me has been an example of what's to be learnt from your logic classes, then I think I'll pass.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:59 am

Zosimus wrote:Well, then, since no one chooses to defend the video, I declare victory.

Your "victory" is worth so very much.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Nobrot » Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:39 pm

Zosimus wrote:
Poodle wrote:
Zosimus wrote: ... Why don't you enroll in one of my logic classes? It would probably help you a great deal.


I'm up for it. As long as you promise not to slide around any longer like a freshly-caught cod. Off you go then - Logic 101 courtesy of Zosimus. I'm sure we'll all benefit.

Fine. Go to http://www.apexgmat.com/ scroll down to the bottom, click contact us, and fill out the form. In comments put, "I'd like the critical reasoning course, please! Can the Peruvian be my teacher?"

150% Money Back Guarantee

Where do sign up?

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:41 pm

The idea that skeptics nod in unison is, of course, quite correct. So do scientists.

The reason is simple. Both skeptics and scientists require credible evidence to support our belief systems. Skeptics and scientists both have a good idea of what constitutes credible evidence, so we all nod to that which is supported by credible evidence. The converse is that we all know quite well which evidence is utter crap. So we all shake our heads in unison to utter crap.

It is those people who have no idea at all who nod and shake their heads out of sinc.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gord » Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:04 am

Lance Kennedy wrote:The idea that skeptics nod in unison is, of course, quite correct.

I don't. Nobody's right about everything, so I doubt as much as I can find the energy to doubt.

There's nothing I hate more than being in sync with everyone else.
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Poodle » Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:35 am

I completely agree with Gord. Always.

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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Lance Kennedy » Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:14 pm

To Gord

It is not that all skeptics agree on final conclusions. But any good skeptic will agree with other skeptics about whether evidence is good or bad.

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Gord
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gord » Mon Feb 13, 2017 6:53 am

I don't believe in absolutes. And a good skeptic is like a true Scotsman. I think we can all disagree with each other's evidence at times, yet still be good skeptics.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE

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scrmbldggs
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby scrmbldggs » Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:03 am

As evidenced.
Hi, Io the lurker.

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Cadmusteeth
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Cadmusteeth » Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:40 pm

Here here

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Gawdzilla Sama
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Gawdzilla Sama » Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:08 pm

Cadmusteeth wrote:Here here

Where where?
Chachacha wrote:"Oh, thweet mythtery of wife, at waft I've found you!"

WWII Resources. Primary sources.
The Myths of Pearl Harbor. Demythologizing the attack.
Hyperwar. Hypertext history of the Second World War.
The greatest place to work in the entire United States.

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Cadmusteeth
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Re: The Universe Wasn't An Accident

Postby Cadmusteeth » Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:13 pm

There there


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