Disruption

What does make the world turn?
User avatar
Centaur
Poster
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:20 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

Disruption

Postby Centaur » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:44 pm

During the first decade of the 20th century, our ancestors were stunned by the sudden collapse of the horse industry.

Is a similar disruption about to occur regarding the end of internal combustion engines and human piloted cars?

CBS This Morning - Saturday July 29 - Tesla Model 3 (running time 00:02:17):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw4sHo5d47E

Tony Seba - Clean Disruption - Energy & Transportation (running time 01:03:33):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Last edited by Centaur on Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 11015
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am

Re: Disruption

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:18 pm

Yes.
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
True Skeptic
Posts: 10510
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Disruption

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:47 pm

Infrastructure does not change as rapidly as technology, so it will take a decade or 2 for the transition to take place, but I, too, think it is coming.

I look forward to the robot car version of Duke's of Hazzard
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
Centaur
Poster
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:20 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby Centaur » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:58 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:Infrastructure does not change as rapidly as technology, so it will take a decade or 2 for the transition to take place, but I, too, think it is coming.

I look forward to the robot car version of Duke's of Hazzard


Indeed, a robot Duke would be great! :D

The vast majority of the necessary electric car infrastructure has long existed. 99% of charging is done overnight in home garages. Meanwhile, for those who drive rather than fly for long distances, Tesla has already created a huge infrastructure of Supercharger stations. That will be tripled next year to accommodate the over 500,000 people who have reserved Model 3's.

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
True Skeptic
Posts: 10510
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Disruption

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:03 pm

Centaur wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:Infrastructure does not change as rapidly as technology, so it will take a decade or 2 for the transition to take place, but I, too, think it is coming.

I look forward to the robot car version of Duke's of Hazzard


Indeed, a robot Duke would be great! :D

The vast majority of the electric car infrastructure has long existed. 99% of charging is done overnight in home garages. Meanwhile, for those who drive rather than fly for long distances, Tesla has already created a huge infrastructure of Supercharger stations. That will be tripled next year to accommodate the over 500,000 people who have reserved Model 3's.

There isn't enough electricity generation capacity to accommodate a changeover from IC. Distance travel is still problematic. A lot of people cannot afford a new car (Old, used clunkety rustbuckets not yet being available). Etc.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
Centaur
Poster
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:20 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby Centaur » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:09 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
Centaur wrote:
OlegTheBatty wrote:Infrastructure does not change as rapidly as technology, so it will take a decade or 2 for the transition to take place, but I, too, think it is coming.

I look forward to the robot car version of Duke's of Hazzard


Indeed, a robot Duke would be great! :D

The vast majority of the electric car infrastructure has long existed. 99% of charging is done overnight in home garages. Meanwhile, for those who drive rather than fly for long distances, Tesla has already created a huge infrastructure of Supercharger stations. That will be tripled next year to accommodate the over 500,000 people who have reserved Model 3's.

There isn't enough electricity generation capacity to accommodate a changeover from IC. Distance travel is still problematic. A lot of people cannot afford a new car (Old, used clunkety rustbuckets not yet being available). Etc.


Tesla is also an energy company. They build solar panels that look like regular roof shingles. They build battery packs at their Gigafactory not only for electric cars, but also for storage of solar energy received during the day to be released at night. Their solar panels and storage batteries are not only being sold to homeowners, but also to power plants.

Tesla cars have ranges over 300 miles. After driving five hours one can recharge at a Tesla Supercharger while eating at a nearby restaurant and visiting a restroom. However, I fly rather than drive long distances.

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
True Skeptic
Posts: 10510
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Disruption

Postby OlegTheBatty » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:19 pm

Sure, but then the stations need to be prolific enough to allow for both range and some local mucking about. And solar panels are not going to increase generation enough for everyone to drive an electric car.

I think the transition will be faster than the horse to auto transition, but it will still take some time.

Here in BC there is a lot of political opposition to a hydroelectric project that would produce the electricity BC will need for that transition. The opposition is there NOW because the power is not needed NOW. Short sighted people selling the site short (I could cite them, shortly).
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
xouper
True Skeptic
Posts: 10689
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:04 pm
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby xouper » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:00 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:Short sighted people selling the site short (I could cite them, shortly).


:lol: I see what you did there.

User avatar
Nikki Nyx
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2064
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:40 am
Custom Title: cognitively consonant
Location: playing croquet in Wonderland

Re: Disruption

Postby Nikki Nyx » Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:53 am

I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive? If so, will visits to therapists and prescriptions for anxiety medications decrease? The DUI will be a thing of the past, putting the breathalyzer industry out of business. Presumably, auto accidents will (eventually) be eliminated, meaning that driver's insurance will cease being for liability and be solely for property loss. Money, as usual, is the reason for the negativity.
What are the facts? Again and again and again-what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”--what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!
—Lazarus Long, from Time Enough for Love, by Robert A. Heinlein

User avatar
Centaur
Poster
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:20 am
Location: Chicago
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby Centaur » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:18 am

Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive? If so, will visits to therapists and prescriptions for anxiety medications decrease? The DUI will be a thing of the past, putting the breathalyzer industry out of business. Presumably, auto accidents will (eventually) be eliminated, meaning that driver's insurance will cease being for liability and be solely for property loss. Money, as usual, is the reason for the negativity.


Indeed. And there will be far less need for traffic surveillance by police. Governments really should start considering reduction of police forces through attrition. The lack of revenues from traffic tickets would eventually force such action. Police unions may try to fight it. Would that mean they would be willing to go back to walking beats?

Of course the factors we've mentioned along with PR campaigns by the fossil fuel and internal combustion engine industries keep the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) about electric and autonomous cars flying across the internet. The Koch brothers pay "news" writers to do just that. But I don't expect them to eventually fare any better than the horse industry advocates a century ago.
Last edited by Centaur on Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Nikki Nyx
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2064
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:40 am
Custom Title: cognitively consonant
Location: playing croquet in Wonderland

Re: Disruption

Postby Nikki Nyx » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:50 am

For every attempt at progress, there will be Luddites for one reason or another.
What are the facts? Again and again and again-what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”--what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!
—Lazarus Long, from Time Enough for Love, by Robert A. Heinlein

User avatar
xouper
True Skeptic
Posts: 10689
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:04 pm
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby xouper » Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:45 am

Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive? If so, will visits to therapists and prescriptions for anxiety medications decrease? The DUI will be a thing of the past, putting the breathalyzer industry out of business. Presumably, auto accidents will (eventually) be eliminated, meaning that driver's insurance will cease being for liability and be solely for property loss. Money, as usual, is the reason for the negativity.


With fewer accidents, there will also be fewer organ donors.

User avatar
Lance Kennedy
True Skeptic
Posts: 10208
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 10:20 pm
Custom Title: Super Skeptic
Location: Paradise, New Zealand

Re: Disruption

Postby Lance Kennedy » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:20 am

The basic economic laws will still apply. Supply and demand. Where there is demand, supply will follow.

bobbo_the_Pragmatist
Has No Life
Posts: 11015
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 9:39 am

Re: Disruption

Postby bobbo_the_Pragmatist » Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:17 pm

As things get phased in and applied, the biggest immediate disruption will be: JOBS. Last I heard: 3 million including long range trucking, short haul taxis, wharehouse forklifts and so forth. With empty AI/Uber cars parked waiting for calls...the overall private ownership of cars will fall as well.

Yep, the future is so bright...........who needs people?
Real Name: bobbo the existential pragmatic evangelical anti-theist and Class Warrior.
Asking: What is the most good for the most people?
Sample Issue: Should the Feds provide all babies with free diapers?

User avatar
Austin Harper
Perpetual Poster
Posts: 4854
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2011 2:22 pm
Custom Title: Rock Chalk Astrohawk
Location: Detroit
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby Austin Harper » Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:55 pm

Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive?

Don't worry, I'll find something else to worry about.
Dum ratio nos ducet, valebimus et multa bene geremus.

User avatar
OlegTheBatty
True Skeptic
Posts: 10510
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 2:35 pm
Custom Title: Uppity Atheist

Re: Disruption

Postby OlegTheBatty » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:09 pm

xouper wrote:
Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive? If so, will visits to therapists and prescriptions for anxiety medications decrease? The DUI will be a thing of the past, putting the breathalyzer industry out of business. Presumably, auto accidents will (eventually) be eliminated, meaning that driver's insurance will cease being for liability and be solely for property loss. Money, as usual, is the reason for the negativity.


With fewer accidents, there will also be fewer organ donors.

True, but the growing-your-own-cloned-organs-for-later-transplant industry is already on the horizon.
. . . with the satisfied air of a man who thinks he has an idea of his own because he has commented on the idea of another . . . - Alexandre Dumas 'The Count of Monte Cristo"

There is no statement so absurd that it has not been uttered by some philosopher. - Cicero

User avatar
Gord
Real Skeptic
Posts: 29416
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:44 am
Custom Title: Silent Ork
Location: Transcona

Re: Disruption

Postby Gord » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:50 pm

Austin Harper wrote:
Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive?

Don't worry, I'll find something else to worry about.

Like how your job at the buggy whip factory isn't looking very secure anymore.
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE

User avatar
xouper
True Skeptic
Posts: 10689
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:04 pm
Contact:

Re: Disruption

Postby xouper » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:00 pm

bobbo_the_Pragmatist wrote:As things get phased in and applied, the biggest immediate disruption will be: JOBS. Last I heard: 3 million including long range trucking, short haul taxis, wharehouse forklifts and so forth. With empty AI/Uber cars parked waiting for calls...the overall private ownership of cars will fall as well.

Yep, the future is so bright...........who needs people?


Hell, way back in the 1980s I was lead software engineer on some projects that included driverless forktrucks in factories. I personally helped put a bunch of drivers out of work.

Replacing human software developers will be much more difficult than replacing human drivers.

User avatar
Gord
Real Skeptic
Posts: 29416
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:44 am
Custom Title: Silent Ork
Location: Transcona

Re: Disruption

Postby Gord » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:08 pm

xouper wrote:Hell, way back in the 1980s I was lead software engineer on some projects that included driverless forktrucks in factories. I personally helped put a bunch of drivers out of work.

Thanks, Carter.

Image
"Knowledge grows through infinite timelessness" -- the random fictional Deepak Chopra quote site
"You are also taking my words out of context." -- Justin
"Nullius in verba" -- The Royal Society ["take nobody's word for it"]
#ANDAMOVIE

User avatar
Nikki Nyx
Veteran Poster
Posts: 2064
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:40 am
Custom Title: cognitively consonant
Location: playing croquet in Wonderland

Re: Disruption

Postby Nikki Nyx » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:46 pm

OlegTheBatty wrote:
xouper wrote:
Nikki Nyx wrote:I wonder what ancillary industries will suffer, aside from the obvious. For example, will people naturally have less stress when they don't have to drive? If so, will visits to therapists and prescriptions for anxiety medications decrease? The DUI will be a thing of the past, putting the breathalyzer industry out of business. Presumably, auto accidents will (eventually) be eliminated, meaning that driver's insurance will cease being for liability and be solely for property loss. Money, as usual, is the reason for the negativity.


With fewer accidents, there will also be fewer organ donors.

True, but the growing-your-own-cloned-organs-for-later-transplant industry is already on the horizon.

I'm looking to stash an entire 20-year-old clone on ice for my dotage. :mrgreen:
What are the facts? Again and again and again-what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history”--what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!
—Lazarus Long, from Time Enough for Love, by Robert A. Heinlein


Return to “Science, Technology, and Mathematics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest