angawawa wrote:Occams razor, when you hear hoofbeats don't think zebras.
angawawa wrote:Now I read that 9/11 conspiracy theorists say that the way the towers fell was too symmetrical, they fell the way controlled demolitions fall. Really?
angawawa wrote:SInce I joined this discussion group a few months ago, one of the things that has struck me is how the groups from "the other side"... all seem to share one thing in common. They focus on tiny little weirdnesses, little bits of the whole that they glom onto and they seem to either ignore or downplay the story that the big picture tells.
Pyrrho wrote:FWIW, Michael Shermer doesn't post on this forum, and I'm fairly certain he doesn't read anything on this forum either.
Pyrrho wrote:FWIW, Michael Shermer doesn't post on this forum, and I'm fairly certain he doesn't read anything on this forum either.
salomed wrote:That's a very clear and consist article.
I just don't get how anyone can be a skeptic without questioning.
Odd. Odd. Odd.
From the article:
Is there evidence that supports an alternative hypothesis to the official story of the WTC falls? There is actually considerable evidence supporting the hypothesis that all three buildings came down due to controlled demolition. All we need, though, is one piece of evidence to best the official story. The rapid fall times of all three buildings currently are only explainable by the use of some form of controlled demolition.
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2008/09/clarifying-collapse-time-of-wtc-7.html
In other words, government apologists will argue that alot was going on inside WTC 7 between the end of the collapse of the penthouse and the beginning of the collapse of the main building. They have provided no evidence for that argument. Indeed, if there had been significant movement inside the building after the collapse of the penthouse, this should have resulted in some movement or deformation of the building visible from outside.
angawawa wrote:I would counter this by once again stating Occam's razor (from Wikipedia) (also written as Ockham's razor, Latin lex parsimoniae) is the law of parsimony, economy, or succinctness. It is a principle urging one to select from among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions.
salomed wrote:Sometimes, "It must have been a ghost," is the shortest and best path through the options to explain a phenomena, but that doesn't mean that it was a ghost.
angawawa wrote:I guess I don't really understand what you are trying to say, salomed.
In this discussion about the WTC buildings that collapsed, it seems elementary.
The two towers were hit by planes.
After burning at extremely high temps, they collapse.
In the process, large chunks hit tower #7 and fires were started.
At 5:30 #7 fell.
That is the simplest explanation.
Saying that there was a vast and far-reaching government conspiracy to murder it's own citizens in order to have the backing of the American people in an invasion of Iraq, that is extremely complicated and involves keeping at least hundreds of people quite.
Donnageddon wrote:salomed wrote:Sometimes, "It must have been a ghost," is the shortest and best path through the options to explain a phenomena, but that doesn't mean that it was a ghost.
Do you have an example of that ever being the case?
salomed wrote:Sometimes, "It must have been a ghost," is the shortest and best path through the options to explain a phenomena, but that doesn't mean that it was a ghost.
OutOfBreath wrote:salomed wrote:Sometimes, "It must have been a ghost," is the shortest and best path through the options to explain a phenomena, but that doesn't mean that it was a ghost.
Not really, because it would involve explaining ghosts as well. You might as well say that sometimes God is the shortest answer. Shortest yes. Simplest, no. Not at all. Simplest would mean assembling it from the most "known" parts, and every "unknown" is making it more complicated. The simplest and best theory is the one containing the fewest and least complicated unknowns. Ghosts and god are complicated. Magic is complicated.
Peace
Dan
salomed wrote:OutOfBreath wrote:salomed wrote:Sometimes, "It must have been a ghost," is the shortest and best path through the options to explain a phenomena, but that doesn't mean that it was a ghost.
Not really, because it would involve explaining ghosts as well. You might as well say that sometimes God is the shortest answer. Shortest yes. Simplest, no. Not at all. Simplest would mean assembling it from the most "known" parts, and every "unknown" is making it more complicated. The simplest and best theory is the one containing the fewest and least complicated unknowns. Ghosts and god are complicated. Magic is complicated.
Peace
Dan
hey Dan
But you have to understand the framework of the explanation. In most cases the framework is established. But not all.
We could come up with a ghost narrative where the only explanation compatable with our world view was a ghost, even though the truth was not a ghost.
Perhaps 911 is like this - there really is a hyperbolic conspiracy. As conspiracy skeptic I must entertain that notion and include its possibility when considering other possibilities. I don't personally believe it, but that should be irrelevant to my thoughts about it.
Do you agree that if the hyperbolic conspiracy were true then things might be just as they seem to be now?
(This might not be true of all conspiracies, eg Reptillian overlords)
Cheers
OutOfBreath wrote:If you never are gonna close down highly unlikely possibilities until some serious evidence comes along, knowledge is impossible.
When I get reason to revise my theories, I do.
In the meantime, I don't think that much about the very unlikely ones.
Which means you have to draw a middle ground between the two to navigate safely.
Evidence first, then my theory can be revised.
Not constructing thousands of potential theories given potentially found evidence.
the New York Times noted in 2003:
The panel [i.e. the 9/11 Commission] also said the failure of the Bush administration to allow officials to be interviewed without the presence of government colleagues could impede its investigation, with the commission’s chairman suggesting today that the situation amounted to “intimidation” of the witnesses.
[9/11 Commission co-chairs] Mr. Kean and Mr. Hamilton suggested that the Justice Department was behind a directive barring intelligence officials from being interviewed by the panel without the presence of agency colleagues.
At a news conference, Mr. Kean described the presence of “minders” at the interviews as a form of intimidation. “I think the commission feels unanimously that it’s some intimidation to have somebody sitting behind you all the time who you either work for or works for your agency,” he said. “You might get less testimony than you would.”
“We would rather interview these people without minders or without agency people there,” he said.
A recently released 9/11 Commission memo complains that:
* Minders “answer[ed] questions directed at witnesses;”
* Minders acted as “monitors, reporting to their respective agencies on Commission staffs lines of inquiry and witnesses’ verbatim responses.” The staff thought this “conveys to witnesses that their superiors will review their statements and may engage in retribution;” and
* Minders “positioned themselves physically and have conducted themselves in a manner that we believe intimidates witnesses from giving full and candid responses to our questions."
Bottom Line: The co-chairs of the 9/11 Commission, Tom Keane and Lee Hamilton, and chair of the the Joint Inquiry of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees into 9/11, Bob Graham, said that minders obstructed the investigation into 9/11.
Shouldn’t we believe them?
"The two co-chairs of the Commission, Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton, believe that the government established the Commission in a way that ensured that it would fail. In their book Without Precedent: The Inside Story of the 9/11 Commission describing their experience serving, Hamilton listed a number of reasons for reaching this conclusion, including: the late establishment of the Commission and the very short deadline imposed on its work; the insufficient funds (3 million dollars), initially allocated for conducting such an extensive investigation (later the Commission requested additional funds but received only a fraction of the funds requested and the chairs still felt hamstrung); the many politicians who opposed the establishment of the Commission; the continuing resistance and opposition to the work of the Commission by many politicians, particularly those who did not wish to be blamed for any of what happened; the deception of the Commission by various key government agencies, including the Department of Defense, NORAD and the FAA; and, the denial of access by various agencies to documents and witnesses. "So there were all kinds of reasons we thought we were set up to fail."
salomed wrote:I am a skeptic, knowledge is impossible, at least about vast swathes of reality. I thought you were too! And a philosophical one at that, I hazard a guess.
Absolutely. What reason do you have not to revise your theories about 911? Surely just that the vast incentive upon you and me and all is not to revise our theories.
I think we have been here before about probability in evidence, na?
So in those terms how many university professors would it take to make you endorse this statement:
"I would like to see a new, impartial, open and scientific investigation into 911."
I agree on the middle ground. Utterly. I think you will believe me on this. This is why I reject thinking about the majority of conspiarcies. But about some, that isn't the case. I personally cannot navigate between those two without a new, impartial, open and scientific investigation into 911. Until then, all I can do is doubt the all sides. This is an exemplary skeptical position, is it not?
I am talking about investigating theories, not revising any specific theory.
It is the most purely scientific of all pursuits to create theories. Then those theories are pruned by inductive reasoning, and what remains, we hope, is the truth.
We cannot prune this thorny 911 bush without a new, impartial, open and scientific investigation.
Why would any reasoned human disagree with this? Please, tell me why?
norrinradd wrote:being Out of breath can deprive a brain of much-needed oxygen.
The investigation was not "thorough", it was a farce, and even the two co-chairmen of the 9/11 commission said it was "set up to fail".
You whine about the cost of a new investigation? The investigation of Clinton's blowjob cost the taxpayers $44 million. The investigation into 9/11 (which was actually important)? $3 million. They requested more, but got only a fraction of what they needed.
Whine about what the cost of NOT having a serious investigation has been. Trillions spent on wars. And counting.
OutOfBreath wrote:norrinradd wrote:being Out of breath can deprive a brain of much-needed oxygen.
The investigation was not "thorough", it was a farce, and even the two co-chairmen of the 9/11 commission said it was "set up to fail".
You whine about the cost of a new investigation? The investigation of Clinton's blowjob cost the taxpayers $44 million. The investigation into 9/11 (which was actually important)? $3 million. They requested more, but got only a fraction of what they needed.
Whine about what the cost of NOT having a serious investigation has been. Trillions spent on wars. And counting.
Did you have a point apart from derision?
norrinradd wrote:And yes, it is very probable that a serious investigation would come to a different conclusion, in fact, several already have. The University of Copenhagen two year study revealed physical proof, in fact.
norrinradd wrote:You want to continue to spend a Billion dollars a month on the Bush wars, then spend YOUR own money on such a pointless venture, but keep your hands out of MY pocket.
norrinradd wrote:A new investigation that reveals these wars were not justified would bring them to an end in a more timely manner, and save us many times more than it would cost.
norrinradd wrote:And yes, it is very probable that a serious investigation would come to a different conclusion, in fact, several already have. The University of Copenhagen two year study revealed physical proof, in fact.
norrinradd wrote:I certainly can. Here you go.
http://nielsharrit.org/
There are also video links, if you'd rather watch videos discussing the findings of this international panel of scientists.
Peace to you.
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